I apologize to those who think we are going down next week; and you know what, statistically speaking, there is a probability that the bear camp could be right.  However, based on the price pattern (daily and weekly SPY charts below), I’m more leaning on the probability that we will continue to go up.

Below is the daily SPY Chart:

From the look of the daily chart, you can see that price action is going up, up and away!  So, with the upward momentum you can see visually, I’ve to say the probability of the price action continuing in the same direction is very high.

Now, take a look at the weekly SPY chart below:

Did you see how the last week bar took out the Wall 3 resistance and went away from it?  From a breakout standpoint, the price action momentum to the upside has only just begun!  Again, giving the visual weekly chart, I’ve to say the price action for next week has a better probability of going up.

Giving the two positive visual outlooks of SPY price action, I’m currently 98% invested with a majority of the stocks concentrated on the energy sector (uranium and natural gas):

Uranium: USU; CCJ; URA DNN (31% of portfolio)

Natural Gas: GLOG; CHK (16% of portfolio)

Biotech: AMRN, SZYM (20% of portfolio)

Technology: LRAD, SSYS, EMAN (31% of portfolio)

Cash (2%)

The above portfolio is dynamic and is subjected to change based on price action of the stocks.

I also like to congratulate the folks at ibankcoin who are doing quite well since the beginning of the year.  The Fly, of course, is always ahead of the crowd here; but I must give Rhino a standing applause for his spectacular turnaround.  The combination of his instinct and daring execution on ISGR was quite an eye opener.  “Wow!” was my first impression.

Meanwhile, I’m ahead with a decent 5.2% YTD so far.  There are still 11 months so let’s play our cards right so we all make spectacular return for 2013!

Trade well!

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Well, SPY took out Wall One resistance last Thursday and is now facing Wall Two resistance.  Take a look at the SPY daily chart below:

It seems to me that Wall Two may either be a walk in the park or present a much stronger resistance for the SPY to break through.  On both Thursday and Friday last week, price actions were butting head to head against Wall Two resistance and were unable to break through.  Perhaps a rest over the weekend will accumulate enough bull power to simply walk right through the Wall Two resistance.

The good news is that price action last Thursday took out the high of the consolidation range which also happened to be the Wall One resistance.  Once price action walks pass the Wall Two resistance, Wall Three becomes the next hurdle for SPY to crack.

Wall Three may be a much harder wall to break out since it has to take out a four year high of SPY; however, if there is enough momentum to break through Wall Three, the next major resistance  is the high of March 2000 which is $154.94.

I’ve a feeling that we will have a kick ass earning week starting Monday.  Just my two cents anyway.

Trade Well.

 

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DNN starts the ball rolling by breaking out of its own cup & handle pattern.  Take a look at the daily chart below:

URA follows the ball with its own breakout today.  See below:

Then CCJ is on the verge of doing the same.  See below:

My money is that the breakout will take place tomorrow.

I’m fully loaded on all three as of now.

As posted by other ibankcoin contributors, I believe 2013 may be the year of uranium.

Trade well!

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There is no doubt we are in the consolidation period.  Take a look at the daily SPY chart below:

Look at the boxed area (light green shaded), price is trading in a range with today price sitting on the middle line of the Andrew Fork pattern.  In other words, the trend is still up because the Andrew Fork line is pointing up.

Giving my own analysis, I’m now 95% invested.

Currently, I’m holding AMRN, LRAD, USU, GLOG, SZYM, WG, EMAN, URA, DNN, CCJ, CRIS, WPRT, CLDX, & PACB.

Trade well!

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Take a look at the daily SPY chart below, I see three walls of resistance waiting for the bullish price action to tackle.

No wonder price action is taking a breather today.

With the debt ceiling crisis looming over us in a couple of months, will the bull has the firework and the will to break through the three walls?

Giving today lackluster price action, I liquidated all my swing trade position and is sitting on 59% cash.

Yes, I’m taking a breather today as well.

My current holding is all position trades (AMRN, LRAD, USU, & EMAN)

Trade well!

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“What a year!” I shouted out loud.

In a nutshell, below is my trading summary for 2012:

Swing trade: YTD gain +24%

Position trade :YTD drawdown -15%

Net YTD gain for 2012 = 9%

I can still remember very clearly the day that I’ve decided to commit $AMRN and $USU to the position trade portfolio.  It was in September 14, 2012 when I penned the post: “5 years Bullish Plan?”

Do I regret the commitment now that I have the hindsight?

No.

I had been watching and trading $AMRN since 2011 and I felt that September 2012 was the “right” time to commit since the potential for a buyout from a pharmaceutical company might be imminent.  Unfortunately, the month by month delay of FDC to issue NCE (new chemical entity) status to $AMRN for its approved fish-oil drug continued to postpone any constructive offer (if any); as a result, together with the announcement that Amarin would launch the sales & marketing of the drug alone, price tumbled down to current level.

At the same time, I also do not want to miss any sudden announcement of any kind that will propel the stock to $20+ level without me.  I missed the $8+ gap-up on April 18, 2011 because I was trading it.  Now, with a possible buy-out still in the wind (or even a possible successful self-launch), I’m content to sit on my drawdown waiting for judgement day.

I’ve been trading $USU for many years and I really like $USU as this price level.  I thought it was a bargain of the century when I loaded up on it below $1.00.  Now, there is nothing for me to do with $USU except to wait for it to become relevant.  And I believe 2013 may be the year for uranium sector to shine.

$LRAD is another one of my long-term position hold, you can read my history of my $LRAD trade by clicking here.

While these three position trades (AMRN, USU, & LRAD) gave me a 15% drawdown in 2012, I believe that these three musketeers have the potential to make my portfolio multiply generously in 2013.

It is also my belief that ever since I start sharing my trading ideas and thought here, my swing trading performance has improved significantly.  It is as though there is an invisible coach watching over me which also increases my sense of responsibility to my trades.  Without a doubt, the main responsibility I’ve taken seriously is my cutting losses quickly.

Cutting my losses quickly in my swing trades is a major contribution to my getting a 24% return in 2012.  The other major contribution is my willingness to jump back into a trade after cutting my losses, even at a higher price.

Happy New Year to everyone and wish you all have a prosperous 2013!

Thank you all for reading and Trade well!

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Look at the beauty below:

You can’t argue with that bad-ass bullish engulfment bar; as a result, I’m 84% invested with 16% cash waiting to catch the 2013 January effect ride.

Bon Voyage, everyone!

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That’s the dragonfly doji candlestick chart pattern I’m referring to in the SPY daily chart.

See the SPY daily chart below:

 

Here is the description of the Dragonfly Doji chart pattern:

Dragonfly Doji

The Dragonfly Doji is a significant bullish reversal candlestick pattern that mainly occurs at the bottom of downtrends.

Per this positive price action coming to the end of today, I bought back most of what I sold in the morning plus some.  I was able to buy DDD & SSYS as a discounted price.

I do not know how the fiscal cliff resolution will turn out this weekend but price action is telling me the bull is putting up a good fight against the bear today.

Trade well!

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That’s the spirit!

Go! Go!

I must say I’m impressed with RIMM running again today to the tune of 11.4% increase in price action.  Fortunately, I jumped back in during the morning spike.  After price action took out the Monday high of $10.98, it was a no brainer to buy back the stock.

Below is the 5 min chart of RIMM:

 

The rally continued all day with a minor roll-off by the end of the day.

If the momentum can keep up, I believe RIMM may rally back to the $14 price level to commensurate with the launch of BB10 phone by end of January, 2013, which is about a month away.

I may add more if price action took out the high of last Friday ($12.39).

With oil price spiked up today, I felt the market would eventually follow with rising prices (provided oil price would not give back today gain by end of this week).  Thus, I went into buying spree and bought back SZYM, CCJ, DNN, SGY, & KERX.

SZYM is a long-term position in my eyes and I just could not see myself not holding it.   Despite my concern with its volatility, I bit the bullet and bought back the stock.  Yeah, it went down afterward.  Mr. Market does not always make it easy for anyone.

I bought CCJ and DNN because I believed 2013 would be the year for uranium.

SGY is @RaginCajun pick and I like the look of the chart.

KERX is a Biotech gamble; albeit a small one since I’m currently loaded up on AMRN.

My current holding is now: LRAD AMRN USU SZYM EMAN RIMM DNN CCJ KERX SGY & 38% cash.

Trade well!

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Yesterday, I deduced our stock market would go up.  BAM! Wrong!

And that is the way it is.  Without the benefit of crystal ball, we are all subjected to the whim of the market mood and sentiment.   With fiscal cliff in sight, hope is lost.  Without hope, the market may lose the will to sustain the uptrend.

Price action has spoken.  SPY took a tumble and broke through the breakout line by a good margin.  Without hesitation, I dumped my swing trading positions pronto. I sold ES, GLOG, NOK, RIMM, SZYM, UCO, & WPRT without looking back.  Some of these position bounced back a bit after I dumped and some went further south.  Basically, I do not try to second guess my decisions after I’ve executed them because I know that by following price action, I should be “OK” on average .

Now is not the time to think, it is time to watch and see if this down day has leg or not.  While watching, I’ll prefer to stay on the sideline and sit on my hands.   Yes, I’m tempted to do some bargain hunting but I must respect the price momentum for the day.

Currently, SPY bounces off the support line created by the Dec 14th low and is now holding a green bar.  Yet, it is still a gap-down day.

Below is the SPY daily chart:

 

Can the Dec 14th support hold? Well, I don’t know so I will wait.

Meanwhile, I’m still holding my position plays (AMRN, LRAD, USU, and EMAN) and 60% cash.  I did not hold SZYM for position play because it has a tendency to drop like a rock without warning.  Oh well, so can many other stocks… but SZYM more so than others is my justification.

Trade well!

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