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Monthly Archives: December 2012

Breaking out to the upside or resistance to the Fib 61.8% retracement?

Despite the mediocre rally today;  the SPY chart is showing a possible breakout to the upside from the 61.8% retracement of the previous leg of downtrend.

Take a look at the daily SPY chart below:


Do you see how the momentum indicator lines at the bottom reflecting a mini-uptrend while the daily chart clocks a new high?  Although the current price is now trading below the breakout line (Nov 2nd high); the overall mini-uptrend from Nov 16th is still intact as far as I’m concerned.

All we need now is the money flow to kick start the breakout run.  However, we are not totally out of the wood yet; the 61.8% Fib retracement is right around the corner so a falling-off the cliff can happen tomorrow or Friday.

I got busy today.  I moved more cash into the market by buying more EXK, SSYS, and EMAN.  I also initiated position on WPRT and GLOG. (I’m now tweeting my daily trading activities here @followtheprice instead of at the comment area in my iBankCoin blog post; follow me if you are interested).

I’m now holding AMRN, LRAD, SSYS, SZYM, EXK, DDD, USU, NOK, EMAN GLOG, WPRT & 16% cash.

How we trade tomorrow and Friday may determine whether the 61.8% Fib retracement resistance will hold or not.

Good luck and trade well!

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Monday 12-10-2012 update

Regarding NOK, I sold half of my position size in the morning to cut losses  and to reduce risk.  I wanted to see how the price action settled in during the day.

After price started to hang around the $3.65- 3.68 level, I bought most of what I sold back in the latter half of the day.  I now hold about 70% of my intended position size.

Take a look at the Daily and Weekly NOK charts below:

Did you see how the bar look almost like a hammer?  I like the fact that it leaves a long tail behind.  Potentially, the price may want to go back up.  Hence, my buying back the shares I sold this morning.  For all intent and purpose, despite today down day, I believe the short-term trend is still up.

Now, look at the weekly NOK chart below:

Today bar did not cut through 50% of last week bar; that was a good sign for me.  Just from eye-balling the chart, it does look like the uptrend is still intact.

Now, you know the reason I bought back my NOK shares.

Below is the EXK daily chart:

You see how the green up bar today formed a small V to create a pivot low from last Friday low bar?  This pivot low is higher than the pivot low created back in November 15th.  I like to see prices take out the last Monday high of $8.73 to confirm last Friday low as pivot “higher” low.  To me, this is a low risk trade because my stop level will be either last Friday low or Nov. 15th low.  Hence, I bought a medium size position on EXK today.

Meanwhile, I’m still smarting from the drawdown due to courtesy of AMRN LRAD & USU.  I’m not too worry though.  You know why?  Because I know trading BIOTECH is not only heart wrenching sometimes but it can also be heart-warming at times.  Take a look at the CLDX chart today (see below).  I traded and profited from CLDX in the past but did not trade it this time due to my commitment to AMRN.  Hey, one BIOTECH commitment is plenty here.

Did you see the spike up today?  Wow!  That is what I like to see happening in AMRN.



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Comeback story- Nokia

So far, Nokia & Microsoft Windows phone 8 have jumped on broad the China train:

1) Nokia Partners with China Mobile to Launch the Lumia 920T, the First TD-SCDMA Windows Phone

2) China Unicom, Microsoft Forge Alliance To Boost Windows Phone Sales In China

3) Nokia Lumia 800c in second spot on China Telecom’s sales chart

Excerpt from China Unicom news:

China is a strong area for Nokia, which is the biggest single-country for sales of Lumia devices. In fact, Nokia recently released the first ever Windows Phone 8 handset in China with the Lumia 920T, however that device went to China Mobile, China Unicom’s fiercest rival.”

Now, take a look at the table below:

Source: China to hit 1B mobile subs next year

Based on the three news items above, Nokia is in a position to grasp some of the one billions subscribers.  Now, you tell me, do we have a catalyst for a runner or not?

Look at the daily and weekly charts below:

Daily NOK chart:

Do you see a prospective runner in the chart?

Now take a look at the weekly chart below:

Do you see the basing of the bottom?  Do you see how much more room this stock can run?

Houston, NOK is ready to take off!

Oh yeah, I’ve bought 3/4 size position and will add to full -size position if NOK takes out the previous 3 days high of $3.90 this coming week.

Good Hunting!

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Punch in the face (Le Fly style)

Pow! AMRN threw me a sucker punch and I caught it when I wasn’t looking. I was looking at my ticker yesterday after the closing bell had rung and I saw prices printing below $10 buck. At first, I thought I was looking at another symbol that was printing $9+ on average; but when I realized I was looking at AMRN. The punch caused me to utter, “You’ve got to be kidding!” Despite my usual expression of profanity when describing an emotional outburst in my past posts, I’m actually pretty “clean” in my day-to-day expression even when I’m upset. Yes, I am merely trying to emulate YOUR emotional expression in an emotion settings in my blog posts whenever I’m expressing profanity. (grin)

I checked the news and found out AMRN decided to go solo and got a $100 million loan to do so.

Now, I do have this possible scenario factored into my risk assessment; so it is not an unexpected punch on the face like you normally get from your mistress/girlfriend/wife in that order. The way I see this scenario, AMRN is only doing what a tough negotiator is expected to do- you show your tough stance by your ability to walk away from the deal.

“You don’t wanna pay the price I think is fair. Fine, I can do it myself and probably make even more money doing so. Bye bye!”

“I know you’re bluffing” the prospective buyer countered.

“Watch me!”

Now, we are watching the action being taken by AMRN.

In a nutshell, I’m in AMRN for the success of their magic fish-oil pill. So, I’m hanging to my dear shares. And yes, I’m NOT AVERAGING down here. You see, by not averaging down ever, I know my EXACT risk at all time. I know what my maximum loss is going to be on the get go and therefore I never lose sleep on any drawdown I’m going through.

On the other hand, if I’m averaging down for every price decline, I’ll be a nervous wreck by now because my risk will have ballooned to the level that I do not expect or anticipate. Now you know why I don’t average down.

Trade well!


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A personal thank you to those who voted for me

By voting for me, you are telling me that my contributions to this blog is helpful to you.  I’m glad to hear that.  It doesn’t matter that I do not have the popular vote like the other three guys, as long as there are someone out there who actually enjoy my blog enough to cast their vote my way, I’m grateful.

I’ll continue to contribute under the “Blogger Network” domain.

I believe in the saying that “everything happens for a reason”.  Today, I know I don’t belong to the tabbed section.

No sweat since my focus is to trade well and make money.

Today election result is just another form of feedback for me to grow and to re-invent myself in the art of blogging.

I think The Fly will be proud to have Rhino (energetic blogger and investor), Elizemae (great writer, I thought he published before when I first read his posts), and I have no clue who Chuck is (pardon my ignorance!)


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Staying on top of the basic

Here is a brief summary of my trading style:

1) I do not average down
2) I DO NOT average down

I know some of you do average down and all I can say is “Good Luck” to you.  Here is my past post on averaging down.

Another thing I don’t like is leverage.  I do not load up on leverage and I’ve done pretty well without using leverage.

So how do you make big buck if you don’t average down or leverage up?  Well, I tend to load up high beta stock (high risk with high reward).  Thus, in lieu of leverage, I like to pick stock that has the potential to be a 2x to 5x bagger.  But the catch is that if these stocks don’t do what it supposes to do, you can lose half of your capital you put in these stocks pretty quick.

On the other hand, I will NOT get a margin call because my pick does not work out.  Also, I always sleep easily because I do not go “ALL IN” in any one of my high beta stock.  20% of my cash portfolio is pretty much as high as I will go in any one stock.

For now, my cash portfolio has 3 high beta stocks: AMRN, USU, and LRAD and they occupy 34% of my portfolio.

Currently, all three are going through drawdown which I am prepared for.  Meanwhile, my gain on trading activities (mainly DDD & RIMM) have helped offset some of the drawdown.

I traded LRAD from the time when it was under the symbol ATCO.  I bought ATCO in 1999 at $7 and sold at $11 in early 2000. I missed the 2005 rally because I was not looking at ATCO then.  Then I bought a boat load of LRAD (ATCO changed their symbol to LRAD to represent their main product line more accurately) when it was trading at 50 cents due to the 2008 meltdown.  Because I bought a boat load, I also received plenty of bonus shares of PAMT from the spin-off.  For every 2 shares of LRAD, I received one share of PAMT.  Afterward, I added to my PAMT position until it did a reverse-split from around 80 cent into $4.  After some marketing push, PAMT rallied to $11.  However, I sold all my PAMT at $9 before it got to $11.  I’ve no problem taking profit before it reached the top because at the time, the volume was there at $9 for me to unload.

I also unloaded all my LRAD shares when it rallied to over $3 in 2011; however, I sold all my LRAD shares around $2.50 before it got to $3.  It was in 2012 that I started to buy back some LRAD shares for another rally in the future.

There were other baggers I caught in the past but the point I’m trying to make here is that you don’t need to leverage to the hilt to push your luck, you just need to find the right high beta stock to hit your homerun.  The only catch to this strategy is that you need to have patience.  Yes,  a lot of patience to wait it out is required.

Currently, I’m waiting for AMRN to give me at least a 2 baggers (knock on wood).

USU, on the other hand, can be a surprise here.  The way I see this, USU will instantly become a $2 billion dollar company if they get the Gov’t loan guarantee.  This can be a prospective 10 baggers.  I loaded up USU the way I loaded up LRAD when it was trading at 50 cents back in 2008.  The risk here is that the US Gov’t decides to let their only uranium refinery to go under.  What is the odd of that happening?  The risk/reward in this one is tremendous based on my humble opinion.

In summary, my strategy is actually quite simple.  I’ve loaded up on three potential runners; and then I spend the rest of my times finding swing trades to keep myself busy.  If you looked at my November trading journals, I did quite well on RIMM.

Trade well!

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The gift of an AAPL?

I was surprised at the harsh downdraft of AAPL today; you don’t get to see a 4-5% drop of AAPL on a regular basis.  Now with most of the trading day almost over, I see AAPL is forming a minor V shape on a 5 minutes chart.

Knowing where I put my stop, which will provide me a low-risk swing trade, allows me to execute this trade easily.  Of course, there is a good chance I’ll get stop out but it is the idea of a low-risk trade that make the trade easy to execute.

Below is the 5 minutes AAPL chart:

If I don’t get stop out today, I’ll ride this trade to tomorrow.

Trade well.

Edit:  Just got stop-out for small losses.  This trade is OVER.  I will not try to find another bottom to catch.  The fact that it  also took out intra-day low does not bode well for AAPL.



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Looking into the mind of …

What is the purpose of blogging anyway?

You want to share your thought, your opinion, your personal favorites, etc.

But are you sharing your superficial thoughts, stale opinions or are you sharing your experience that can resonate to others so that they can say, “Yeah, don’t I know it.  Glad to know how this guy resolves this ….”

Why am I blogging here?

I’ve come a long way to trading the way I’m trading now.  When I started, I wished I could read the blog of a seasoned trader and see how he/she traded each day and the thought that went into each trade.  I don’t want to hear someone “crying” over their bad trades or the “bad lucks” they are stuck with; and I sure don’t want to hear somebody beating their chest because they have one good trade that is based on unacceptable risk.

I wanted to read how the trader get him/herself out of a trade; good or bad.  When I discovered iBankCoin, I said to myself, “This is what I’ve been looking for!”

The Fly basically bares his soul and his trades for all to see.  If he has a bad trade, we witness the pain he is going through and his resolution to get out of his dilemma.  We may not agree to his action and resolution but you can’t dispute the fact that he opens his door for you to look into his mind.

To see The Fly’s willingness to share in his own creative way triggers my desire to do the same thing.

And that is why I’m blogging the way I am.  Basically, I time-stamp each trade I make (under the comment area) so anyone can reconstruct my trading activities and deduce whether I make money or not.  I may not time-stamp to the exact minute but I do so within a reasonable time frame so that you know my dollar is at risk.

I believe I’ve moved pass the “fear” factor that used to paralyze me at time of execution.  Do you remember the time when you’ve seen a technical signal screaming at you to execute; but you just could not act?  I’ve been there.

Now, I just take the signal and place my stop loss target.

Blogging is just my way to remind myself to stay calm, to pay attention, and to be responsible for each trade I make because someone is watching.  There is no better “outside force” than here since I know I’m not the only one exposing myself in my trades.

Trading is simple but difficult to execute.  My goal is the follow the price action and trade accordingly so that you can see that it is really not that difficult at all if you get yourself out of the way.

How do you get yourself out of the way?

Well, vote for me and I’ll demonstrate along the way…

Trade well.

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Perfection within the imperfection of trading in the chaotic market

Before you say it is impossible to be perfect; hear me out first.

Let’s start with premises we already know:

1) Trading is tough because the market is volatile.

“Wow! what a big run up yesterday! The market is going up! Yeah! Wait a minute!  FUCK!  The market is dropping like a rock now!  What’s the FUCK going on here???”

2) There is no perfect trading system

“I paid %(#$)#@ for this trading system and I had FUCKING four losses in a row!  What’s the FUCK!”

3) Taking loss is inevitable; it is as certain as death and taxes

“I don’t wanna take my losses!  The price will go back up!  I’m sure of it!”

The above three items pretty much define the “imperfection of trading in the chaotic market”.

So, let’s talk about the perfection, shall we?

The only thing YOU can control during trading is your execution.  Buy, sell, hold, or neutral, you have total control to decide which action to execute.  YET, while simple in principle it is not easy to execute, failure to execute means you are GIVING UP control.  And with no control whatsoever while you are trading, you are DOOMED.

Don’t waste your time justifying that you are in control by simply making a decision to hold a losing position beyond your original stop point.  You lost control because you could not execute to close your position to take your loss.  Thus, your short-term trade now become a long-term hold (aka bagholder).

Perfection in trading is simply being perfect in executing your trade the way you plan it.  Whether you make money or not is irrelevant as a single trade; but in the long run, your being “perfect” in executing your trades will guide you to profitable trading.

Some of you who read my blog know that I usually trade the same group of stocks over and over again.  The reason is because I’m familiar with them.  While I don’t know every nuance about them; I know enough about them to execute my trades according to my plan.  This is all that matter.

While I strive to be “perfect’ in executing my trades, I may not be perfect in “timing” my trades.  Sometimes I’ve taken profit too soon or losses too quickly; but that is ok.  You know why?  It is because I don’t have a crystal ball.  Hence, without a crystal ball, I’m allowed to be “imperfect” in my timing.  As long as I can jump back in after I get out. albeit at a higher price if not at a lower price; I’m not complaining.  Isn’t this is what trading is all about?  Jumping in and out with the object of taking a piece of the pie without losing your shirt?

Perfection in your execution doesn’t have to be difficult; all it takes is that you keep this simple rule in the forefront of your head- cut your losses fast according to your plan at all times when you are trading.

Regarding my interest in becoming a tabbed blogger, I’m actually quite ambivalent about it.  If you vote for me and I’m elected, I will continue to post my 2 cents as well as my daily trades as I make them.  But it really doesn’t matter if I become a tabbed blogger or not; I will still post the way I’ve been posting.  There are a few bloggers at Blogger Network who also deserve to be a tabbed blogger; so I won’t be doing “shitting” on anyone.  My REAL goal is to make a boat load of money while posting my trades here.

IF I become a tabbed blogger, I may have to increase the creative factor in my posting so that it will be more fun than just posting my daily journal.  The way I look at it, being a tabbed blogger means that imperfection in your trades will become even more highlighted for more eyeballs to see.  Thus, in some way, being a tabbed blogger will force me to achieve perfection in the execution of my trades.

Tabbed or not, making good trades will always be my ultimate goal.

Trade well.

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