Really quick note and then I need to prepare for opening bell. This was my second time in Miami for Art Basel and I was again confronted by obscene crypto wealth. This time it was fewer lambos with custom bitcoin paint jobs, more chaps with jewelry. So a bit of a step down maybe. Nevertheless money was being flaunted and to be honest, being flaunted by dudes I could easily twist into a pretzel.

Note—this is not my nature. I have no interest in harming anyone. But I also couldn’t care less about protecting these folks either. That is not my job.

My job is to extract as many fiat american dollars as possible from the global financial complex. Said dollars are to be converted into real goods like greenhouses and pole barns that aide me in my quest to feed as many humans as possible delicious fruity snacks.

So when a report surfaced online that two crypto bros had woken up in their hotel rooms beaten and relieved of their fine watches and other valuables by some hot Russian women (and perhaps some bowler hat wearing comrades) all I could think was, of course. Similar attackes happened in the financial markets at about the same time. The crypto futures markets were manipulated while Sam was on an airplane and many others were taking their favorite chemicals and disco dancing, liquidating many a leveraged account.

You/we could cry foul, assume a victim mentality, and ask for help from the shitheads at the SEC or some other authority assumed to be helpful. Or we can chalk it up as a learning experience and stick to the game. A game that jades sometimes but rewards humility in spades.

I’m from Detroit. The last thing we do here is show wealth. That’s a recipe for having your life challenged. We drive beat up whips and wear work clothes. There is no sense standing out. Blend in. Extract wealth. And by living this way we never need to feel the like we need to keep a gun on our person like a little trashy bitch.

Alright for now.

Raul Santos, December 6th 2021

Now here is the 367th strategy session, enjoy:

---

Stocklabs Strategy Session: 12/06/21 – 12/10/21

I. Executive Summary

Raul’s bias score 2.35, medium bear. Equities are choppy but stabilize early in the week, perhaps after a brief test lower and then rally into the weekend.

II. RECAP OF THE ACTION

Gap up and rally Monday all day long. Some sustained rallying early Tuesday before a sharp sell hit the tape late morning Tuesday. Wednesday sort of choppy early on, then a hard fade lower into the close. Thursday choppy before a strong trend lower Friday.

The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

Rotational Report:

All sectors pinned lower except Utilities. Full-on risk off move.

bearish

For the week, the performance of each sector can be seen below:

Concentrated Money Flows:

The bullish skew fourteen weeks back was negated three weeks ago. We’ve had three consecutive weeks of heavy sell flows, with last week’s being the most extreme we’ve seen yet.

bearish, but nearing excessive

Here are this week’s results:

III. Stocklabs ACADEMY

Enough pity, back to work

In the past I have nailed the move from RCS to bunker buster for a huge victory on a short. This time I didn’t. Lessons were learned. Humility gained. Will be better for it next time. At least I’d better be.

Now IndexModel is neutral and Stocklabs is oversold. It is time to start working the long side of the tape, perhaps by Tuesday or even late Monday we could set a tradeable low.

Note: The next two sections are auction theory.

What is The Market Trying To Do?

Week ended searching for sellers

IV. THE WEEK AHEAD

What is The Market Likely To Do from Here?

Weekly forecast:

Equities are choppy but stabilize early in the week, perhaps after a brief test lower and then rally into the weekend.

Bias Book:

Here are the bias trades and price levels for this week:

Here are last week’s bias trade results:

Bias Book Performance [11/17/2014-Present]:

Seeing all three states at once

Markets fluctuate between two states—balance and discovery.  Discovery is an explosive directional move and can last for months.  In theory, the longer the compression leading up to a break, the more order flow energy to push the discovery phase.

We are monitoring two instruments, the Nasdaq Transportation Index and the PHLX Semiconductor Index.

Transports appear to be in a short term discovery down phase inside an intermediate term discovery up phase. The next likely thing I expect to see is a bounce, and then perhaps a new balance form.

See below:

Semiconductors appear to be holding range/balance along the highs.

V. INDEX MODEL

Bias model is neutral after signaling Bunker Buster last week. The Bunker Buster before the most recent one was fourty weeks ago.

Heading into the first full week of December neutral. No bias.

Here is the current spread:

VI.12 month Hybrid Oversold

On Wednesday, December 1^st Stocklabs went hybrid oversold on the 12-month algo. This is a bullish cycle that ends Wednesday, December 15^th end-of-day. Here is the performance of each major index so far:

VII. QUOTE OF THE WEEK:

“It can ruin your life only if it ruins your character.” – Marcus Aurelius

Trade simple, keep working

Comments »

I was jarred awake around 3:33am by a dream about an ultra-violent storm. I’ve noticed the ferocity of natural disaster dreams have become more visceral as I grow older. It’s funny, I often quip that elder Raul will, “put the fear of a 40mph wind in you.” That surly old Italian is ornery and always looking at trees like they’re gonna fall. The winds in my dream have a real pressure to them. Maybe I’m having little strokes in my sleep.

We don’t know.

What we do know is early Friday morning the royal ‘they’ hit the newswires with a new covid-19 variant out of Africa. I am still super skeptical we needed to do all this pandemic cosplay to begin with. Before I lose you to this divisive topic, let me go back to one more fact and then I’ll do one more joke and then we’ll move on. Fact—Bill Gates goes on Netflix in 2019 on a show called Explained and warns that we are hella not ready to handle pandemics. And then bing-bang-boom, a pandemic whips up. Whatever.

Joke—Friday morning I was so shook, for a variety of reasons, that I was finally motivated to go have my booster shot. Pfizer. Got a 6pm appointment at the nearest CVS. Smoked reefer on the way and didn’t wear a mask during the jabbing. Wore a sweater with nothing underneath so I had to reveal ma belly to the pharmacist. Because the whole thing is so absurd. I only did the original inoculation because my yoga studio required it. My favorite mountain resort (revelstoke) now also requires proof of vaccination. They got me with the passport feature. Prior to these restrictions, and mind you I life like a mad degenerate sex fiend, I didn’t take any medicines. Not even a multivitamin. I grow and cook super freaking healthy food and consume a lot of it. It’s like feeding a team of horses and rabbits. I eat 7-to-20 times a day, from a giant food bowl of vegetables. Lately I eat eggs like a snake, 4-to-9 eggs per week. And enough cheese and ale to make a monk blush. I haven’t had fish meat in a while because I just haven’t bothered to pick any up. The only drugs that make it into this body are reefer, caffeine, hootch, and the occasional LSD or mushing room.

But now my body is tainted with the covid inoculations. Made my odor shift from brine to sweet. My cock is an absolute deviant, demanding relief at least 4x per day. My hair and beard are going down past my neck like Rumpelstiltskin, and strangers on the internet are telling me my heart is going to explode any minute.

Will it? Again, we don’t know.

What I do know is that dream brought me to attention, and I sat down and started looking at 30-year charts of Apple and Microsoft. I am very frustrated with myself. For weeks, weeks, 18 weeks…I waded through signal after signal from the IndexModel, which has been sending out bearish signals way more than usual since the Stocklabs fundamental score came to life. And I’ve been writing about it in my diary. About how maybe I need to tweak the system, but that I’d better stick with it for now. And I stuck with it, right up until last week. Last week I intervened because it was Thanksgiving. And the fucking sentiment of a big american family meal fucked me out of a good trade that I needed.

Listen, actively trading is so simple but it can be also fucked. Opportunities are slim. Over-trading is the enemy. Doubting yourself and your process is certain death.

Heading into next week we have a Bunker Buster. This signal hasn’t fired in a long time but it did today. My play is to not trade these weeks. Instead I focus on accumulating my absolute highest conviction long-term investments.

What are those?

Good question. I will be asking that of myself all week. But first I will flush out some of the low-conviction stuff I’ve been holding. Then I will redeploy. All this whilst traveling down to Miami to nerd out with the NFT nerds.

Winter is here.

Raul Santos, November 28th 2021

And now the 366th edition of Strategy Session. Enjoy.

---

Stocklabs Strategy Session: 11/29/21 – 12/03/21

I. Executive Summary

Raul’s bias score 2.28, medium bear*. Price accelerates to the downside early in the week, perhaps fueled by commentary out of Fed Chairman Powell Tueday morning. Eventually look for the markets to form a sharp, tradable low and rally into week’s end. Non-farm payroll data due out Friday might be what ultimately pivots price higher.

*Bunker Buster triggered, see Section V.

II. RECAP OF THE ACTION

Early Monday rally to record highs is faded aggressively the rest of the day. Continuation selling Tuesday. Relief rally Wednesday (into Thanksgiving). Covid-variant news hits tape very early Friday morning and price trends lower into the weekend.

The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

Rotational Report:

Key sectors leading to the downside.

bearish

For the week, the performance of each sector can be seen below:

Concentrated Money Flows:

The bullish skew thirteen weeks back was negated two weeks ago. More strong sell flows last week.

slightly bearish

Here are this week’s results:

III. Stocklabs ACADEMY

Absolutely kicking myself

I can be my worst critic, and rightfully so when I commit errors that jeopardize my livelihood. I have been plagued by overconfidence my entire trading career. It is most often after things go well that I lose discipline.

Change is hard. The older I become, the more empathy I have for this struggle. We switched from Exodus to Stocklabs a little over a year ago, but the real switch in the data happened August 1^st. That is when the fundamental score came back to life after being pegged at 3.2 for 23 weeks.

It resulted in IndexModel generating way more bearish signals than it ever had. I am still unsure what to think, which sucks big time.

While all this data gathering and weekend researching may seem odd and low-value-added to most readers, it has been my rock. It give me the confidence to enter an arena with the most sophisticated and resource-rich competition in the world.

However losing confidence in it is a slippery slope.

I stuck to the system all the way up until last week (last week’s Section III title: “human intervention”). And then last week happened, and I am absolutely furious with myself.

Something has to change. Or maybe nothing needs to change at all.

One thing is clear—emotionally I am not in the place I need to be to work with my normal risk.

I raised a bunch of cash Friday. Probably selling into the proverbial hole. I am totally fine with that. I know where I am emotionally and I need to figure some things out before I start running hot.

This week we have a bunker buster. This has always been a difficult signal for me to trade. It calls for an acceleration to the downside that eventually results in a tradeable low. I find it is best to spend these weeks accumulating long-term positions.

Therefore my plan is to retool my portfolio a bit. I have cash to deploy. I have leverage I can deploy. But first I feel the need to purge, and then I will circle the wagons around my absolute top conviction tickers.

I’ve never done well trading/investing in too many things at once. It’s all fine and dandy until the entire risk universe goes risk off. Then you’re scrambling around like a lunatic.

Fortunately I am not spread out too much right now, but I will say I am spread out too much.

Time to circle the wagons, clarify my research, and dial back into trading the NASDAQ extremely well—but no active trading this week.

Note: The next two sections are auction theory.

What is The Market Trying To Do?

Week ended searching for buyers

IV. THE WEEK AHEAD

What is The Market Likely To Do from Here?

Weekly forecast:

Price accelerates to the downside early in the week, perhaps fueled by commentary out of Fed Chairman Powell Tueday morning. Eventually look for the markets to form a sharp, tradable low and rally into week’s end. Non-farm payroll data due out Friday might be what ultimately pivots price higher.

Bias Book:

Here are the bias trades and price levels for this week:

Here are last week’s bias trade results:

Bias Book Performance [11/17/2014-Present]:

Still looks like discovery

Markets fluctuate between two states—balance and discovery.  Discovery is an explosive directional move and can last for months.  In theory, the longer the compression leading up to a break, the more order flow energy to push the discovery phase.

We are monitoring two instruments, the Nasdaq Transportation Index and the PHLX Semiconductor Index.

Transports are about -500 points off their high and coming into an old resistance zone. Primary expectation is for buyers to defend this region and for discovery up to continue.

See below:

Semiconductors are off the highs but still appear to be in discover up.

V. INDEX MODEL

Bias model is signaling Bunker Buster. The last Bunker Buster was thirty nine weeks ago.

Bunker Buster calls for an acceleration of volatility that eventually concludes with a sharp low being printed that holds for several weeks.

Here is the current spread:

VI. QUOTE OF THE WEEK:

“What matters to an active man is to do the right thing; whether the right thing comes to pass should not bother him.” – Goethe

Trade simple, trust the process

Comments »

Hello there chaps,

I’ve updated the weekend research just now and was struck by a bearish signal from IndexModel. The only other bearish indication was industry flows last week, which were decidedly bearish:

Hopefully by now we all understand what is going on—there are a handful of tickers that prop up the entire equity complex. They are absolute champions of industry. Immortal giants who bestow upon us magical offerings like same-day shipping on millions of goods or free email. It takes a certain humility to only invest in these juggernauts. Everyone wants to be smart and find the next big thing.

Here’s the problem with that. Most of us are medium smart at best. And that’s okay as long as you don’t commit the mistakes of a medium smart average thinker.

The middle of anything is an absolute trap. Middle class—assholes. Middle income—wage cucks. Mid-tier hotels—LAME.

Me I lean stupid. For example. I am headed to Miami for Art Basel. Once in Miami I am in a position of privilege. My cousin is the meteorologist there, and she has inside access to the most exclusive events.

My friends are also there. They have all the trimmings of upper-class living. Lamborghini racing cars. Condominiums with warp-around ocean and bay views.

My privilege comes in the form of being really, stupidly, extremely good looking. That trait is good as gold in a town as wonderfully shallow as Miami beach. My next privilege, and I cannot claim to understand it, is people just really like me.

I am taking steerage class airfare down from Detroit for 70 dollars (round trip) and I reserved a bed at a hostile in south beach that is 1-star rated. These accommodations are certain to expose me not only to bedbugs and the delta variant but also some real-world culture that normies will never see from there 3-starred Holiday Inn.

I will experience the lowest of the low and the highest of the high. I can assure you these are the two most exciting places to be.

Fuck the middle. The middle is a trap.

Anyhow, if you’re going to be in Miami for Art Basel and want to meet up, hit me up on Twitter @vinnumbrr.

Okay for now,

Raul Santos, November 21st 2021

And now the 365th edition of strategy session. Enjoy.

---

Stocklabs Strategy Session: 11/22/21 – 11/26/21

I. Executive Summary

Raul’s bias score 3.15, neutral*. Choppy sideways action, then look for FOMC minutes Wednesday afternoon to put a bid into equities during the holiday-shortened week.

U.S. markets will be closed Thursday, November 25^th in observation of Thanksgiving and Friday is a half-day.

*Rose Colored Sunglasses bearish bias triggered, see Section V.

II. RECAP OF THE ACTION

Some weakness early Monday. Then a week-long rally in the tech-heavy NASDAQ while the S&P sort of drifted and the other two indices were weak.

The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

Rotational Report:

Leadership in the right places, but seeing Utilities bullish divergent suggests some risk aversion.

slightly bullish

For the week, the performance of each sector can be seen below:

Concentrated Money Flows:

The bullish skew from twelve weeks back was finally negated by last week’s industry flows. Strong sell flows last week.

slightly bearish

Here are this week’s results:

III. Stocklabs ACADEMY

Human intervention

Alright lads you know I don’t like to bet against my signals. Indexmodel is bearish heading into Thanksgiving week—a week that is statistically bullish. My trading will be light next week, but it certainly won’t be bearish bets.

Note: The next two sections are auction theory.

What is The Market Trying To Do?

Week ended searching for buyers

IV. THE WEEK AHEAD

What is The Market Likely To Do from Here?

Weekly forecast:

Choppy sideways action, then look for FOMC minutes Wednesday afternoon to put a bid into equities during the holiday-shortened week.

Bias Book:

Here are the bias trades and price levels for this week:

Here are last week’s bias trade results:

Bias Book Performance [11/17/2014-Present]:

Discovery up across the board

Markets fluctuate between two states—balance and discovery.  Discovery is an explosive directional move and can last for months.  In theory, the longer the compression leading up to a break, the more order flow energy to push the discovery phase.

We are monitoring two instruments, the Nasdaq Transportation Index and the PHLX Semiconductor Index.

Transports still working on converting this old resistance into support. Unless they lose this level in a big way, this index remains discovery up.

See below:

Semiconductors caught a boost from Nvidia earnings last week adding more stretch to this discovery phase. Hard to participate at these levels but overall this sends a bullish signal to the overall market. Discovery up.

V. INDEX MODEL

Bias model is Rose Colored Sunglasses bearish this week.

It was extreme Rose Colored Sunglasses [RCS] bullish for four consecutive weeks before this after being bearish RCS for two consecutive weeks.

We had a Bunker Buster thirty eight weeks ago.

Rose Colored sunglasses calls for selling pressure throughout the week.

Here is the current spread:

VI. Exodus 6-mont Hybrid Overbought

The 6-month hybrid algo triggered overbought Monday, November 1^st. That is a bullish signal that runs through to Monday, November 15^th end of day. Here is the performance of each major index so far:

HYBRID-OB0-110120210-1

VII. QUOTE OF THE WEEK:

“Whoever embraces necessity count as wise, skilled in divine matters.” – Euripides

Trade simple, as necessary

Comments »

The way the NASDAQ is drifting is real fine. Really fine indeed. But I see no urgency to trade it.

So let me offload something that has plagued me recently more than ever—folks rooting for my downfall.

They hate to see it. I am so freaking happy-go-lucky, and I don’t need a boss telling me what to do because I self motivate. I can work a room like Austin Powers, and I rival the beauty of America’s next top models.

While I mostly keep out of everyone’s way, and often even go out of my way to share insights I gain from hundred of hours of research and applied speculation, their are still lads who cannot stand me.

For one, I made a fortune betting on Elon Musk and for some reason that was immoral or unethical or idk just plum wrong. Then I really struck a nerve with all this NFT guff.

My main takeaway is acceptance. This is the role I was given in life and all I can do now is be the absolute best speculator and keep on being a bit of a goof. I refuse to be a serious sally. That isn’t who I am.

Okay for now. Trade’em well if you do.

Raul Santos, November 19th 2021

Comments »

Greetings lads and good evening,

I am on a zoom call and my a.d.d is triggering so I am firing up the old blog machine to placate my need to work while these people do their talking and I sit here looking pretty on the video.

I’ve been the ah custodian here at iBankCoin for oh about 10 years now, yep. Sort of hanging out in the boiler room, turning dials and spinning knobs, not really keeping anything running, just lingering for alpha and cleaning up messes along the way.

iBankCoin is/was a web 2.0 platform and I was here for it. The ability to scribe my thoughts onto the ancient walls of the internet, and really leave my mark as an american wierd-o was an opportunity I could not miss. Now I am doing the same as we hatch this terrifying egg that is web 3.0.

The Fly has been good to me. Like he said, he’s mostly run freely, and I’ve done the same. I’ve seen some shit. Things I’m not proud of but also things that were formative. I am fairly certain ZeroPointNow was a Russian chaos agent sent to brainwash our echo chamber.

Like where is that fucker today?

We don’t know.

But anyhow this truly is a special corner of the internet, and I salute anyone who frequents these hallowed halls.

I like to think I’ve added value. One of my favorite pastimes when a trade is going against me is to clean. Mid-day today I mopped the floors while keeping an eye on the global financial complex via my 70-inch sammy. It looks like we caught a decent bounce this afternoon. Will it mark low of week?

Again, we don’t know. But at least the floors are Mr. Clean fresh.

The bounce looked okay. And I suppose that’s enough for now. Congrats to Le Fly. And congrats to everyone here. Cheers to tomorrow and cheers to another 14 years.

I want.to.die.here.

Cheers,

Raul

Comments »

Hi-ho lads, last week was really something. Strong. November kicked off very cleanly, the first being on a Monday, with a little gap up that we tidied up before an early week rally. They we paused in an act of respect for the Fed, whatever, then rallied after Taper Jim did his little announcement then we rallied headstrong for the remainder of the week.

This was of course, entirely driven by the move in semiconductors and really nothing else.

There was a time, say oh about the end of 2018, where humans still had a chance at salvaging the current simulation for the static minded. The zealots had their moment. Folks who believe in demons almost retained control. They could have foisted us back into the cave to live under their cape of fear and maybe, just maybe nations/religious institutions could have been a thing that carried on into 2100.

Instead, thank the gods, robots officially assumed control and now our entire fate is in the hands of the Google.

Thank you google.

So now all that matters is us working hard to appease our robot overlords. We have this amazing global computer network called ethereum and fine lads like Mark Zuckered berg are building us fantastic universes where we can j.o. and do drugs and play-to-earn.

I am so happy in this moment. I chose a side. And they won.

This must be what it is like to watch sports. Something I never do being a full grown man with pressing matters to attend to.

Like buying cute jpegs for thousands of fiat american dollars or finding the right plow for my tractor or shoveling shit onto the fields.

But for these next few days, since the season has finally ended and all my crops gathered, I am just sort of taking it ease. Hanging out in chat rooms. Shit posting. Taking naps. Eating lots of bread and fudge and getting all fat and sassy.

I have literally zero idea how folks do 9-to-5 stuff. If someone required me to report for dootie, pressed into a chair and told to toil in the name of someone else’s goals, well idk, I’d probably just acquiesce and grow fond of my lunching break and the coma-induced afternoons from big meat snackies.

But for now I am lean. Pissed. Independent and out for gains.

Okay for now,

Raul Santos, November 7th 2021

Here is 363rd edition of Strategy Session:

---

Stocklabs Strategy Session: 11/08/21 – 11/12/21

I. Executive Summary

Raul’s bias score 3.83, medium bull*. Consolidation/sideways drift along the highs.

*extreme Rose Colored Sunglasses bullish bias triggered, see Section V.

II. RECAP OF THE ACTION

Russell 2000 broke out Monday. Other indices sort of chopped higher through Wednesday. Then we rallied across the board after the Wednesday afternoon FOMC announcement. Rally continued through mid-day Friday. Then some selling/profit taking knocked price off the high into the weekend.

The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

Rotational Report:

Rally rotations were strongest in all the right places.

bullish

For the week, the performance of each sector can be seen below:

Concentrated Money Flows:

Ten weeks back we had a major bullish skew that was never negated. Then two weeks back we had another major bullish skew. Last week had another huge bullish skew.

bullish

Here are this week’s results:

III. Stocklabs ACADEMY

Industry/money flows

The analysis in the industry section, where money flows are partitioned on an industry level, has demonstrated why doing this research each Sunday is essential. This piece of the report has kept us bullish contextually despite other part of the report calling the bull call into question.

Building context is important to execution.

Note: The next two sections are auction theory.

What is The Market Trying To Do?

Week ended searching for sellers

IV. THE WEEK AHEAD

What is The Market Likely To Do from Here?

Weekly forecast:

Consolidation/sideways drift along the highs.

Bias Book:

Here are the bias trades and price levels for this week:

Here are last week’s bias trade results:

Bias Book Performance [11/17/2014-Present]:

Here comes the tricky part of the overplay for the underlay

Markets fluctuate between two states—balance and discovery.  Discovery is an explosive directional move and can last for months.  In theory, the longer the compression leading up to a break, the more order flow energy to push the discovery phase.

We are monitoring two instruments, the Nasdaq Transportation Index and the PHLX Semiconductor Index.

Transports probed higher, found some sellers but still this index appears to be in discovery up.

See below:

Semiconductors did it. This action is an explosive example of the overplay for the underlay. Technical analysis books have failed again. Discovery up.

V. INDEX MODEL

Bias model is extreme Rose Colored Sunglasses [RCS] bullish for a third consecutive week after being bearish RCS for two consecutive weeks. Bias model was neutral five reports back after signaling Rose Colored Sunglasses [RCS] bearish six weeks ago. It was neutral the prior two weeks after being Rose Colored Sunglasses [RCS] bearish nine weeks back after being neutral ten reports back and Rose Colored Sunglasses bearish for the two consecutive weeks prior to that.

We had a Bunker Buster thirty six weeks ago.

Extreme Rose Colored sunglasses calls for a sideways drift, perhaps with a slight upward bias.

Here is the current spread:

VI. QUOTE OF THE WEEK:

“You don’t have to start from scratch to do something interesting.” – Jack Dorsey

Trade simple, build an approach that fits your strengths

Comments »

Hydration and exfoliation are the name of the game when it comes to skincare. But everyone’s skin is different. Being a somewhat swarthy southern european type, my skin is pretty oily.

The oils in my diet are important because they leech out onto the surface of my body at an accelerated rate. No seed oils. I keep two grades of single-origin olive oil in the pantry. One for cooking and one for dressing. Most of the fish meat in my diet is wild caught from Lake Superior. The trout is nice and oily.

No mammal or avian grease enters my system at any time. Disgusting.

I drink mostly from the tap, which I plumbed dechlorniation and carbon filtration into. These filters are changed quarterly. I drink 3 cups of water with breaking fast. If I am working around Mothership I will consume about 9-12 cups of water in a day. If I am toiling at the farm my water intake increases to about 30 cups.

I wear sunscreen every day. Even in the winter. Even inside. In the summertime and while snowboarding I wear Shiseido’s Ultimate Sun Protector which is water proof and Spf 50. The rest of the time I use Shisedo’s Urban Environment Oil-free Uv Protector, which turns the sun’s burning rays into healing rays.

I never take a razored blade to my thick facial hair. Instead I use Wahl peanut clipper to bring the stubble to varying lengths, depending on my mood and the season. Lately I am keeping my stubble tight, using a #1 guard about 2-3x per week. I clipper my face before showering.

The only soap that touches my face is Dr. Bronner’s. Liquid or bar. I prefer peppermint, tea tree or eucalyptus but will use rose or almond in a pinch. This is a strong soap but again, I have over active sebaceous glands. Still, I avoid the eye area and only keep the suds on my face for a few seconds, putting some extra effort into cleaning along the hairline, around the nose and behind the ears.

I make use of several masks. On clippered beard days I apply Kate Somerville’s ExfoliKate. Considered the holy grail of exfoliator by industry professionals, this mask is clinically proven to smooth texture and improve pores to give the skin a radiant glow.

In the early spring, especially on a rainy day I like to apply a thick layer if Irish moor mud. Peter Thomas Roth has a clever formulation that women in Manhattan pay good money for and so do I. This mask is best applied after the shower and worn outside in the rain for a nice long sit. This mask would never be done on the same day as an exfoliation treatment.

In the summer or a particularly dry winter stretch the Peter Thomas Roth Cucumber Gel Extreme Detoxifying Hydrator mask is a life saver.

After showers and masks, I gently pat my face dry with a towel. All towels are white and washed in a hot cycle with an appropriate amount of natural detergent like Ecos and a bit of oxyclean and bleach. The cup on the washing machine that most americans fill with a disgusting ‘fabric softener’ is filled with white vinegar. This serves to emulsify and remove any remaining detergent from the towels during the rinse.

Next I apply either a day or nighttime serum from Keihl’s. For daytime I use the cannabis oil formulation. At night, the ‘midnight recovery’. I use the pipette to drip the serum along my hairline and then onto my nose and cheekbones. Then I use my finger tips to gently drum the oil into my pores. Little rapid taps, sort of like jazz hands.

While this is setting up I use my right pinky (which was not involved in applying the serum) to put a small dot of eye cream under each eye. Lately I’ve been using the Keihl’s avocado creamy eye treatment. This can be worked all the way up to the bottom eyelids and the top eyelid gently.

Next I apply Dr. Brandt’s Cool Biotic Prebiotic Redness Relief Cream to my entire face. Dr. Brandt hung himself in the garage of his Miami home during the early morning hours of Sunday, April 5th 2015. Some consider that level of dedication to forever youth admirable. To me it was just down bad selfishness. The company floundered for several years after his death. The biggest blow to my skincare routine was when they put the kibosh on their Pores-No-More Pore Refining cream which was a little jar of heaven. I am convinced it was a loss leader. A product so perfect, yet so expensive to make it had to perish with the founder.

Next sunscreen is applied. If sunscreen needs to be reapplied prior to my next shower I make sure my hands are as clean as possible and reapply it to my dirty skin.

Finally I apply a thick coating of meadowfoam seed oil to my beard zone and neck, behind my ears. This is an excellent carrier oil. Not too greasy. Cheap but nice. Sometime I’ll add a bit of myrrh or cedar oil to the medowfoam oil if I am trying to smell fancy.

There you have it lads. This is my skincare routine. Pair it with a draconian commitment to exercise, a passion for fresh air, lots of naps, about 5 orgasms a day and plenty of dark leafy greens and you have the recipe for a deviant middle-aged chap who poses a constant threat to men and women alike.

Okay for now.

Raul Santos, November 4th 2021

Comments »

Allow this dusty old scarecrow to wish you the happiest of Halloweens here inside the hallowed halls of iBankingCoin dot gov dot io dort commmmmmmm.

I am dying. Every day the reaper takes a swipe at me, affixing another grey into mah beard and making mah bones all crotchety. My apex diet and expensive skincare routine only do so much to delay this inevitability. I take no prescriptions medications, opting instead to raw dog life like my ancestors from the old country.

It is very american to use pills for this-or-that, when most disease is associated with either consuming too much or not enough alcohol.

Am I an alcoholic?

We don’t know.

If I am it is one of those high functioning ones they write about in the psychology journals.

Because my goodness do I work too hard.

And sometimes smart.

But often just hardt.

I am hard on things and my body is no exception. I went out on a haunt last night, dressed as a like a rastafarian scarecrow or something, walking down the middle of dark city streets with a ten-foot tall sunflower stalk, daring vehicles to chal-lenge me. It was all quite unnerving to for the for the for the yes for the women, but I knew and soon they realized that a spooky apparition is the last thing anyone wants to trifle with.

Especially on devil’s night.

Folks are superstitious.

Not me though. I’m just a dusty old scarecrow. Heck, it is debatable whether I even have a brain.

I have spreadsheets. And little doohickeys whipped up by chaps who seem smart. Like Senior Traphouse’o’canna, who one year ago launched Stocking labs.

Let’s pause for a minute and give them/they/he/him a round of applause for the massive effort of building the cocked lab.

::applause go round::

But onto more pressing matters. I am going to die. And while I really dig Jackie Bitcoin’s style and swagger, and find his Twitter app to be most addicting, I have to say he is not moving fast enough building muh metaverse.

These augmented sex parties need to happen soon. While I still have this deviant cock jolting me awake like I fell on a rod of angle iron. And while I would rather be at a kinky vr orgy with Jacked Dorsel it seems like Toucan Mark and the Bongo Brigade are the ones who can actually build muh umm…web 3?

Do you understand what I am getting at here? Man?

I might sell everything and go all in on FB aka MVRS.

I know you guys. You like to smart your way through investing. With you big brains and tinkey winkeys you go hunting for some derivative shit stock that maybe just maybe will 5x its way into metaverse infamy. Me I just want the biggest, most immortally cruel giga corporation.

Googed gle. Microed soft. End vidia.

Like why would I ever own a stock like lucid when there’s Tesla? Gay-med stop when there’s Amazon?

I don’t have time for underdogs. I work too hardt, you hear me? But fine. Go be medium smart and sift a diamond from the endless stream of corporate shit.

Barbecue Mark might work too hardt I don’t know but what I do know is he has more money than god and he’s deploying it at a hot clip to build the metaverse.

Jack built a tip jar and a newsletter service.

All I’m trying to say here is I don’t have a brain but I have a pissed off rooster and if I don’t take it for a walk 4-5x a day nothing gets done around here. Before I take the big sleep someone needs to upload my conscious to the metaverse so raul can haunt these halls forever.

I want to die here.

Happy Halloween.

Raul Santos, October 31st 2021

Here is 362nd edition of Strategy Session.

---

Stocklabs Strategy Session: 11/01/21 – 11/05/21

I. Executive Summary

Raul’s bias score 3.55, medium bull*. Follow-thru rally through Wednesday morning. Then look for the third reaction to FOMC rate decision Wednesday afternoon to dictate direction into the second half of the week. Nonfarm payroll data due out Friday morning may serve to accelerate the predominant direction.

*extreme Rose Colored Sunglasses bullish bias triggered, see Section V.

II. RECAP OF THE ACTION

Trend up Monday. Continuation Tuesday on the NASDAQ despite some weakness in the other indices. Continued rally for the rest of the week.

The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

Rotational Report:

Strong rotations. Market rallied in all the right places.

bullish

For the week, the performance of each sector can be seen below:

Nine weeks back we had a major bullish skew that was never negated. Then two weeks back we had another major bullish skew.

Last week skewed slightly to the negative side.

neutral

Here are this week’s results:

III. Stocklabs ACADEMY

Indexmodel remains untouched

For now the oscillator thresholds remain untouched. Next time the signal fires off a bearish signal I will take a closer look at the model and how it behaved during similar scores in the past and assess.

Note: The next two sections are auction theory.

What is The Market Trying To Do?

Week ended searching for sellers

IV. THE WEEK AHEAD

What is The Market Likely To Do from Here?

Weekly forecast:

Follow-thru rally through Wednesday morning. Then look for the third reaction to FOMC rate decision Wednesday afternoon to dictate direction into the second half of the week. Nonfarm payroll data due out Friday morning may serve to accelerate the predominant direction.

Bias Book:

Here are the bias trades and price levels for this week:

Here are last week’s bias trade results:

Bias Book Performance [11/17/2014-Present]:

Here comes the tricky part of the overplay for the underlay

Markets fluctuate between two states—balance and discovery.  Discovery is an explosive directional move and can last for months.  In theory, the longer the compression leading up to a break, the more order flow energy to push the discovery phase.

We are monitoring two instruments, the Nasdaq Transportation Index and the PHLX Semiconductor Index.

Transports are gunning for all time highs after a drawn out consolidation down in that dip trough. Likely has enough energy to probe up beyond.

See below:

Semiconductors really set up that overplay for the underlay nicely. So far it is playing out exactly how we expected it to. This is the challenging part of the trick—it is back near the highs and this looks like a range. And it might go range bound here. Or, in true overplay for the underlay fashion it will probe the highs and accelerate to the upside.

Primary expectation remains that the PHLX semiconductor index is running the overplay for the underlay playbook and will accelerate to the upside.

V. INDEX MODEL

Bias model is extreme Rose Colored Sunglasses [RCS] bullish for a second consecutive week after being bearish RCS for two consecutive weeks. Bias model was neutral four reports back after signaling Rose Colored Sunglasses [RCS] bearish five weeks ago. It was neutral the prior two weeks after being Rose Colored Sunglasses [RCS] bearish eight weeks back after being neutral nine reports back and Rose Colored Sunglasses bearish for the two consecutive weeks prior to that.

We had a Bunker Buster thirty five weeks ago.

Extreme Rose Colored sunglasses calls for a sideways drift, perhaps with a slight upward bias.

Here is the current spread:

VI. QUOTE OF THE WEEK:

“A founder is not a job, it’s a role, an attitude.” – Jack Dorsey

Trade simple, trading is work

 

Comments »

The buck stops here. This is important. First off, that we’re clear on one thing. I own the outcome of any speculation I take. The short-dated bet I took on Twitter via the December 70 calls is likely a zero.The position I’ve built since the IPO via common TWTR shares is still doing okay but my goodness has it been a waste of time?

Maybe. Maybe had those funds been loose I would have spent them on cheap hootch and fast women. I mean a good chunk of that holding period was my twenties, yikes.

Could have indexed the funds. Sure. Been a terrific bore. Could have been bitcoin, the thought of a generation.

I dug back through the archives but couldn’t find the day I quit trading individual stocks. But around like 2016 or so I swore off stock picking and put the blinders on and only traded NASDAQ futures. I do well there. The feedback loop is much quicker. This is a game of cool-headed consistency.

Okay all this said, and believe me what I am about to write next borders on paranoid hyperbole, but bear with me because maybe we don’t know. Maybe these fuckers really are out to get me.

Twitter just reported a pretty heckin’ decent quarter. They grew revenues. They settled an old debt. Average daily active users were up. The call went okay. The analysts mentioned NOTHING about NFTs or crypto during Q&A. If it wasn’t for a question from a Twitter user we wouldn’t have even heard about bitcoin tipping.

No. These analysts, these wall street payroll chaps. Sucking from a withing vine. Employees who were once the seat of power, at places like Goldman Sachs, psychopaths in suits before noon every damn day doing all sorts of low-labor intellectual work, these people from these places are losing their might and they know it.

Protocols are rendering their jobs useless and making them look like dusty old fools along the way. Brave folks are offering the forbidden. 8,700% APY hoe. The rebels who are championing these initiatives are organizing on Twitter. The CEO of this cool kid hangout wears tie died shirt and hang out with Jay-Z.

Analysts on the other hand do nothing great. Spreadsheets and hamburgers. Withing heights.

Okay.

So we go to bed after a decent earnings call. Stock was indicating like +1.5% which meant nothing to me. Few folks are thanking me for my service. Rallying the boys around this great name. I reply nothing because I know the fat lady not only isn’t done singing, she really hasn’t even begun to sing.

7am rolls around and these analysts kick off a bear shitter campaign. To the neglect of their personal life they shave their pudgy faced and eat little cakes and squeeze into their suits. Then they go into their offices, yes their throne! And start downgrading Twitter. Maybe they called each other. Maybe there was some kind of nod and a wink. Maybe they were like, “Chaps we need to knock these twitter fuckers down a peg. They’re shouting Revolution and building things that render us obsolete. We are very fat and they are making us look fat and foolish.”  They take a look at the order book and see all these profiteers thinking they’re cunning. That they’re on to something. That they’ve piled into $70 dollar short-dated calls.  And they realize that if TWTR lingers above $60 too much longer these swarthy gamblers might have us on the run. Or worse.  They might have our heads.

Downgrade, downgrade, more more more, fuckers. Dowgrade this stock we need to put an end to these wonton speculators.

Then Bill Hwang rumors. Old black beard is putting the forks to Twitter with those draconian tactics he learned in the old country. Is it true? We don’t know.

All this micro risk. Happens fast.

Manipulative? I really couldn’t care less.

My job isn’t to cry foul. My job is to trade well and understand the factors at play. The big open interest at $70 was spotted. I saw it cross one of these option alert systems that I never use. But those doo-hickeys fire irrelevant signals all the time.

Analysts can’t play this kind of inside baseball with entire indices. Maybe they can with individual stocks. That’s why I do my best not to care about the intermediate term price oscillations of a ticker. I have to remember. One Vision. One Dream.

All that stated. My vibe is still off. It has been for weeks. I am still confidently shooting my shot. And I am still making proverbial baskets. I don’t feel shaken. Just a bit off. I don’t like this feeling. Maybe I need to really step out of the fish tank. Something this bohemian hasn’t done in some 20 odd months.

To recap: I remain bullish on Twitter. The analysts are maybe conspiring against TWTR short-term and doing a decent job of it. The proverbial they will likely keep TWTR pinned below 70 into year-end to dash the hopes and dreams of all the revolutionary privateers who had the gall to ask what if.

What if what if what if.

I spent the better part of the last few months hyping Twitter and I’ll own that. It has been wrong so far. My vibe is off and because of that I am taking tomorrow and likely the rest of the week off. Hell. It is hallowed ween anyhow and I have some haunting to do.

If I stand too close to any devices tomorrow I will probably end up buying more Twitter. Holding TWTR stock through year-after-year of mundane earnings is the bane of my existence. Twitter.com is a wonderful stream of alpha and joy and my greatest addiction.

Winter is coming.

Okay for now.

::nails dead crow to front door::

Raul Santos, October 27th 201

Comments »

I think we can all agree the entire notion of a nation having power over the global economy is being rapidly forgotten by the collective consciousness of western minds.

There are edge cases. Rural outcasts mostly. People who will lose a fortune long DWAC as it craters into the single digits. Folks who desperately cling to an archaic ethos long after the music has stopped. But prevailing sentiment and thus the hearts and minds of our children and grand childeren recognize these to be the true leaders of Earth:

Things have certainly become more fragmented. Decentralized, if you will. Uniting the people under the banner of one fairy tale worked for hundreds of year after the Romans lost their grip on Europe. That formula even held up into the New World for a few hundred years thanks to fake history.

But then the internet came along. Pandora’s box was opened. The gatekeepers of information were rendered obsolete and now pirates and profiteers reign supreme in the high seas of the interwebs.

Or metaverse, if you prefer.

Lads I was here for all of it. The serendipitous birthright of anyone who hit the jackpot and was born into the mid 1980s. After all the bleak crack stuff and crony corporatism gutted our inner cities but before the cellular telephone or even caller ID. I took a front seat to the greatest enlightenment period humankind has ever experienced. An enlightenment that is still happening now.

Thanks to brave lads like Steve Jobs (RIP). Trail blazers who said FUCK YOU RONALD REGAN, we’re taking LSD and building time machines. Thanks to these code-typing rebels the mold was broken. Lines on a map man. The borders are in your mind.

Not mine.

I swear allegiance to no nation or its leaders. The only political leader worthy of any reverence is Treasury Secretary Yellen. And even hers is more-and-more digressing into something more ceremonial. Like Buckingham Palace.

What is happening now. Today. At this very moment. There are no more days off. In this very moment thousands of protocols are vying for power. Who is going to win?

We don’t know.

Okay for now.

Raul Santos, October 24th 2021

And now the 361st strategy session. Enjoy:

---

Stocklabs Strategy Session: 10/25/21 – 10/29/21

I. Executive Summary

Raul’s bias score 3.55, medium bull*. Choppy Monday. Then look for price rally all week long, fueled by earnings from Big Tech.

Facebook Monday. Microsoft, Alphabet (Google) and Twitter Tuesday. Apple and Amazon Thursday. All reports due out after the bell.

*extreme Rose Colored Sunglasses bullish bias triggered, see Section V.

II. RECAP OF THE ACTION

Trend up Monday. Continuation Tuesday. Choppy for the rest of the week.

The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

Rotational Report:

Super low quality leadership last week. Perhaps Tech will assume leadership in the coming week.

neutral

For the week, the performance of each sector can be seen below:

Concentrated Money Flows:

Eight weeks back we had a major bullish skew that was never negated. Then last week we had another major bullish skew.

bullish

Here are this week’s results:

III. Stocklabs ACADEMY

Indexmodel might need to go in for maintenance

I was eyeballing recent data. Via the oscillator I keep on a spreadsheet. And it seems like the thresholds may need a tweaking.

I do not like ‘moving the goal posts’ on an algorithm/model. There is a risk of curve fitting the system to past performance when these types of tweaks are made. That is why I do not react quickly to oddities in the data.

Part of me expected to see a Bunker Buster signal during the September/October dip. That never happened. Which is fine.

But these RCS bearish signals. That may need to be addressed. They pose a risk to my performance.

I shall ponder making these tweaks into year-end. For now the model remains unchanged.

Note: The next two sections are auction theory.

What is The Market Trying To Do?

Week ended searching for buyers

IV. THE WEEK AHEAD

What is The Market Likely To Do from Here?

Weekly forecast:

Choppy Monday. Then look for price rally all week long, fueled by earnings from Big Tech.

Bias Book:

Here are the bias trades and price levels for this week:

Here are last week’s bias trade results:

Bias Book Performance [11/17/2014-Present]:

Overplay for the underlay

Markets fluctuate between two states—balance and discovery.  Discovery is an explosive directional move and can last for months.  In theory, the longer the compression leading up to a break, the more order flow energy to push the discovery phase.

We are monitoring two instruments, the Nasdaq Transportation Index and the PHLX Semiconductor Index.

Transports are in a steep discovery up. I expect buyers to continue to explore higher prices in the coming week.

See below:

Semiconductors more-and-more appear to be setting up the ‘overplay for the underlay’. What this set-up essentially equates to is a super-obvious chart setup (rising wedge) breaks lower. All of the technical analysis textbooks say this is a bearish set up. So it breaks lower. Some buyers liquidate their longs. Some short sellers position for further downside.

Then price rips up beyond the wedge and explores higher prices.

My primary expectation is that the PHLX semiconductor index is set up for an overplay for the underlay.

V. INDEX MODEL

Bias model is extreme Rose Colored Sunglasses [RCS] bullish after being bearish RCS for two consecutive weeks. Bias model was neutral three reports back after signaling Rose Colored Sunglasses [RCS] bearish four weeks ago. It was neutral the prior two weeks after being Rose Colored Sunglasses [RCS] bearish seven weeks back after being neutral eight reports back and Rose Colored Sunglasses bearish for the two consecutive weeks prior to that.

We had a Bunker Buster thirty four weeks ago.

Extreme Rose Colored sunglasses calls for a sideways drift, perhaps with a slight upward bias.

Here is the current spread:

VI. QUOTE OF THE WEEK:

“Make every detail perfect and limit the number of details to perfect.” – Jack Dorsey

Trade simple, simplify everything

Comments »