NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Over 100k contracts traded as price worked deep down into last Friday’s trend up. At 8:30am initial/continuing jobless claims data came out mixed.
Also on the economic docket we have ISM manufacturing at 10am.
Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme down. A violent morning auction eventually gave way to sellers who briefly poked below the Tuesday low. Then a strong bid came in and worked up through IB high. Then we traversed the entire range again, eventually closing on the lows.
Neutral extreme.
Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 6881. From here we continue lower, down through overnight low 6823, setting up a move down to 6791.25 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 2 buyers press up through overnight high 6898.75 and tag 6906.75 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 3 stronger sellers close the gap down at 6789.25 before two way trade ensues.
It is feast and famine at the house of RAUL, I’ve always said that.
When I was young twenties, a jovial lad full of unfounded optimism and pomp it would be some kind of mistake, the regular injustices subjected upon yours truly.
Then I realized mistakes were the day-to-day. That life was one struggle after another. And that it was a matter of how you handled yourself during the shit storm that defined you. That it was either accept cubicle life and bi-weekly stipends or nut up and make something of yourself.
I had a flat tire tonight. I had a flat tire after an important business meeting in the city.
I do not live in the city.
Are you kidding me?
Live in Detroit? For what? The restaurants? Maybe…but is it worth the exorbitant taxes and potential murder?
At best, maybe, I rent a small space. A small pad strategically positioned for foolishness. But to own…they have a long way to come…the Gilberts and Illiches…before Detroit becomes a respectable place to own land.
I left my important meeting. LISTEN I TAKE MANY IMPORTANT MEETINGS OK? I am cultivating greatness. They want to build a SOHO house here.
It takes more than buying SANGAMO at $3 to make a respectable nut in this world. You have to pander…and kiss..and joke…and rip…and bla bla bla…convince people to sign checks in your direction.
This is something you have to do…otherwise you will end up a pathetic desk jockey earning 75k with 2 maybe three weeks of freedom a year.
Servatude.
Is that what you want? To help J.P. Morgan earn another 2-3 hundred million a year?
Go ahead.
Live is short. Real short. A blip if you are hopeful. A twitch if we are being realistic.
So I want my twitch to be filled with thrills.
Maybe in the meantime I can convince a few others that it isn’t worth it to shape yourself into the the proverbial ‘productive member of society’.
Into faggotry.
Oh yes, that word…so offensive, with the hard -g.
Funny how humans can take a sound and make it so hurtful…if you let them.
I cannot stand humans. There I said it. The smell…the panic and rush they have when racing through Whole Foods. Pathetic.
Whatever. Listen. I had a flat tire tonight deep down in the hood. In a place where a lesser man, like a Jerome Powell, would freak out and call an Uber Black…a place where a Jerome Powell would worry about being shot. Deep down in the hoods of Detroit.
Which is ironic. Because since I arrived back home here in the murder mitten I have been lining up this joke—that anyone making fun of the pot holes hasn’t played enough video games. Because video games sharpen your ability to react to obstructions.
Anyhow my tire went flat on the east side in a place famed to be the most violent in town. Jerome Powell would have dialed 9-1-1 and stayed inside his locked car until police officers—-women and men who have much more important things to do—arrived and carted him to safety.
Which is fine. Lifes been good to Jerome so far. But I had to handle that shit on my own. Tire iron in fist, heater on hip, come at me. The tire was fixed manually. The ride home uninterrupted.
Whatever. It doesn’t make me a better citizen then Jerome Powell.
I am home now and still bearish. It will take a spring miracle to make me bullish.
Or two weeks of nothing…like sideways nothing. Then I will be bullish again. Hopefully between then and now Jerome Powell can learn to stop spilling Federal Reserve secrets and start behaving like Queen Yellen bitch slayer so all us open market investors can continue making money.
Hopefully Jerome Powell stops catering to the money market account crowd. The private equity crooks.
Doubtful.
But maybe.
We have to stay objective even if we have no real way of trusting our leadership.
Worst case we flea to Canada and commit to snowboarding.
I have to make this communique brief as I’m juggling five plates and have two more that need to start spinning.
I just got back in town. I just got back after three-four weeks living on the fringe of society, burning donkey shit in the desert to keep warm and shit. And if you think that means I have less visibility on the financial markets then you, then you will be quite perturbed when I tell you quite the contrary.
This is not the type of market I initiate risk in. First of all my benevolent robots, my only consul in the art of financial war, my loyal leaders, the ones who never flinch and always offer only the highest level of objectivity. Those kind robots, they saw something. Here is the note I issued, on their behalf, three weeks and three days ago:
CORRECTION-LIKE BEHAVIOUR. There words, not mine. I am simply a vessel which they speak through, much like your God spoke to the disciples while they wrote the bible.
So there’s the robots.
Then there is something all investors can agree sucks—uncertainty. Uncertainty at the top, no less. Anyone with a brain knows that capitalism is what makes the world turn. That banks are the foundation stones of capitalism. And that the Federal Reserve is the lender of last resort—the ultimate banker—the banker of bankers, or king of kings as they said in biblical times.
I am being told to trust Jerome Powell. To love Jerome Powell. To tithe my savings at the feet of Jerome Powell.
This is what I see when I look at Jerome Powell. I see a private equity goon like Fred Wilson, the type of guy who amassed incredible financial gains before dumping his flotsam on the general population via IPO. I see a fucking attorney, ready to send me a nice letterhead asking for a gratuitous retainer. I see a consultant who is suited and booted before 10am.
I do not trust anyone wearing a suit before 2pm, as a rule of thumb.
Uncertainty.
Also he answers questions. Janet Yellen did not answer questions. She told drawn-out stories like all nice grandmas do. Grandma Yellen was kind. Grandma Yellen gave us butterscotch candies even while we were being little shits, running Tesla and Google to unspeakable valuations.
Jerome Powell goes to the House Financial Services committee and in no time he’s answering questions, look:
Wow bro, why don’t you just tell them everything about our precious QE? The greatest tool the Federal Reserve ever created, a tool developed by Benjamin ‘blunt’ Bernanke. He needs to learn to be more vague. Until he does, and he will, uncertainty.
All that being said, I have not reduced risk. That is not entirely true. I did scale part of my SANGAMO position last week. I sold 1/3 of the position from inside a frozen RV. I sold it because it took out $25 and that was the plan ever since it was trading at $3. This is not a fucking game. This is good business.
While we firmly believe in the core thesis of CRISPR, that super rich folks like Jerome Powell, with extravagant lake houses and families, that these rich people do not want to die—that they will invest their dollars in any idea that promises immortality—that these rich people control a vast percentage of the world’s investable money—and that they do not want to leave the mortal world because it is a pretty dope place for them to hang out and do cool shit—that they will funnel money to CRISPR ideas like SANGAMO. While we believe this core thesis, we are also realistic and know that all true advancement is out on the horizon, on the proverbial ‘4-years from now’ timeline, a place where scientists dream and scheme…and often fail—realistically.
AND WE ARE HERE TO CONDUCT GOOD BUSINESS. Good business in the financial markets comes down to PLAN AND EXECUTE.
It is not pretty. No one will have sex with you because you are good at taking 100,000,000 data points, parsing and analyzing them, and churning out a statistical advantage on a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet. There will be no cheering fans when you flawlessly execute.
Is that what you need? To be recognized? And for what? To what end?
In the words of Lily Allen, “I want to be rich and I want lots of money. I don’t care about clever. I don’t care about funny.”
Said money will be used to obtain land as far north as my constitution will allow. Said land will be equipped with enough solar, batteries, and robotic facilities to ensure I can sit back sipping mead while the malaise of human propagation happening in major city centers goes full pitch fork, egging each other over meaningless freedoms like assault rifles and opiates.
So like I was saying, I am not reducing risk. But I am also not assuming new risk. The morning reports, the ones prepared every morning from inside mothership, are showing me an orderly market that is behaving with my price levels, the best price levels in the game, and that we are balancing just below record highs.
These aren’t exactly bearish conditions.
Nevertheless, I am a bit bearish. I am giving sellers another 10-12 days to show up before I start mashing the buy button.
NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap up after an overnight session featuring elevated range on extreme volume. Price made a new weekly low overnight before discovering a bid and trading back near the Tuesday midpoint. At 8:30am GDP data came out better than expected.
Also on the economic docket today we have pending home sales at 10am and crude oil inventory and 10:30am.
Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend down. The day began with a violent two-way auction which eventually gave way to selling once the world heard Jerome Powell speak to Congress for the first time. The selling continued, methodically, right down to the open gap left behind from last Friday—down at 6909.
Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 6917.50. From here sellers continue lower, down below overnight low 6893.25. Look for buyers just below at 6890.50 and two way trade to ensue.
Hypo 2 buyers gap-and-go up through overnight high 6945.75 and continue higher, up to 6977 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 3 stronger buyers trade up to 7000 before two way trade ensues.
Tue Feb 27, 2018 9:17am ESTComments Off on New Fed overlord Powell to testify to Congress Tuesday, here is the NASDAQ trading plan
NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday flat after an overnight session featuring elevated volume and normal range. Price was balanced overnight and traded along the upper quadrant of Monday’s range. At 8:30am Advance goods trade balance and Durable goods orders both came in below expectations. At 9am the Case-shiller home price index came out better than expected.
Also on the economic docket today we have consumer confidence at 10am. At the same time, new Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell will begin testifying to the House Financial Services Committee. This will be our first time hearing how the new Fed chair handles Q&A in Congress.
There are also 4- and 52-week T-bill auctions at 11:30am.
Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up. The week began with a gap up and early drive higher. The morning featured a bit of two-way action before buyers ultimately stepped in and initiated new risk, slowly trending the market higher for the rest of the day.
Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work up beyond overnight high 7009. From here buyers continue higher, up to 7018.50 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 2 sellers press down through overnight low 6977.25, setting up a move to target the naked VPOC at 6960. Look for buyers ahead of 6946.50 and two way trade to ensue.
Hypo 3 stronger sellers work a full gap fill down to 6923.50 before two way trade ensues.
The very kind and resourceful iBankCoin field team has navigated our land yacht to the snowy northwest. As of this writing four bald eagles have been spotted and logged into the national registrar by our devoted naturalist, Doctor Roberto Bregante—a Mayan native with an occasionally violent disposition whose anscestors occupied these lands long before European settlement.
As we traverse these rich lands I’ve made contact with Mothership, which is hardwired to the interwebs at a geographical point between the trading markets in New York and Chicago. Mothership is constantly receiving information from over 6000 remote sensors strategically placed throughout the financial complex.
These sensors collect raw information which Mothership parses and analyzes. Said information is married to data stored inside the Exodus cloud. All these data form the bias model which forecasts direction of the next five trading days. Sometimes the model peers further into the white fogs of the future and whispers prophetically about longer term events as objectively as possible.
Right now the model sees a correction lasting many many weeks, perhaps even months. This is only based off two samples from the entire model history, which began in November 2014.
The model is a true testament to humans improving their lives with AI augmentation. Something simple and pure and real.
Unlike competitive figure skating. So much about ranking figure skaters is human and subjective and therefore flawed. Did the boy smile enough? Was he fierce when the song was fierce? Is his country a kind one or one with authoritarian leadership?
Despite many measurable and technical score points, there is far too much human subjectivity to consider the number scores pure.
We seek purity on the RAUL blog. Through the instagrams and snapped chats and tweets I also seek to inspire. For some, the theater of a brilliant ice dance invigorates the spirit and inspires. Which is fine.
Anyhow the model lads, it is neutral heading into the upcoming week after being wildly bearish last Sunday. On a longer horizon, 4-6 weeks perhaps longer, we expect correction behavior.
The Weekly Strategy Session inside Exodus covers these matters in detail. And both last week and this week’s report are improtant reads if you want a clear vision about upcoming conditions and what to look for before initiating new intermediate/long-term risk.
Lucky for you, all of you, there are free trials of Exodus from now through Valentine’s day. Therefore you can access the reports in their entirety. I would be humbled if you took some time to check it out and tell me what you think. Especially if you think I’m wrong and that the best move next week was to BTFD.
Meanwhile I am back in nature lads, with a team of researchers, thrill seekers, and scientists. A trip to places many would describe as enchanted. Follow me on Instagram username vincalim you’d like to see some of the oddities along the way.
And I couldn’t have timed this trip any better because all my robots are calling for correction.
And until then our job as humans is to establish a controlled grip on our facilities. Not too firm a grip but steady and prepared for chaos. One of our favorite tools for ensuring a prepared mind is objective observation of the financial markets. A power shift is happening now. Decentralization. Less power to the government. More to private enterprise. The stone cold bankers at JP Morgan have formed a triumvirate with Amazon and America’s favorite privateer Warren Buffet to fix healthcare—one of societies biggest sore spots. Whether they succeed, as always, is TBD.
But we need to act now. Not when we know if capitalism has fixed what politicians cannot. We need to act, or not act, to extract wealth from the financial markets. Said wealth will then be converted into real assets like land. Northern land in mountainous territories. High ground is insulated from the malaise of human propagation.
Because it is hard to live in those unforgiving regions. But with the right gear they become happy oases of pure nature.
Therefore our job is to collect our thoughts and prepare for battle inside the financal complex. We know who we are up against—the Chanoses and the burrito eaters. The sheiks, the Chinese, and those crypto-loving Koreans.
The competition is institutionalized at a young age and trained to mathematically outperform your average football-loving American.
Oddly enough, rabidly successful teams like the Patriots have all enacted some form of moneyball analysis. It has become abundantly clear that competing at the highest level in any game, from skis to /6e’s to chess or kung fu requires a statistical foundation.
Data does not lie.
Which is why we set out every Sunday to collect and parse out the best data available and use it to prepare for any chaos to come. And the models lads, they are calling for conditions many perceive as chaotic. The model is calling for a correction.
We are at a pivotal moment in history. AI is on the Moores’s parabolic arc and climbing. The good folks at Microsoft and Google are doing incredible work in quantum that will only serve to accelerate this truth. Our Obama-era Fed chair is out. Our sweet grandma from Brooklyn is being replaced by Jarome Powell, an old white man from Washington DC with an estimated net worth that ranges from $19-$112 million.
God bless America.
Chinese New Year is right around the corner and the gambling halls in Vegas favor the steady Patriots by 4.5 points. An unexpected victory from the birds might be enough for society to finally snap and take to the streets with aluminum bats and ski masks, hellbent on altering the course of American history.
Their biggest enemy is the cold. For 1000s of years cold weather has successfully thwarted attempts at revolution, from the fires of Byzantium to the French gallows. Which is why it is our job to avoid all these chaotic times from the comforts of the north, letting nature insulate us from the recurrences of fanaticism.
All that being said, it is with great pleasure to announce I am headed to the mountains. February is without question the worst month down on the Michigan flats. It is time I seek steeper lands and deeper snow packs to hurl myself down. I am returning to the fringe life. We have rented an RV and will be chasing powder until further notice.
During this time stock market communications will be limited. The way I see it, we are due for a correction and the models are calling for a correction, and if we are correcting, then what purpose does it serve me to ring my hat over a violent market? My time is better spent becoming one with winter nature.
If you would like to follow my adventure, be sure to follow me on Instagram, username vincalim. I will be posting all sorts of content from the highlands.
Models are bearish lads. We could establish a trading low at some point next week. But a longer view suggests a correction is in the cards for the next several weeks.
Exodus members, the 168th edition of Strategy Session is live. Go read more specifically what the model is calling for and see in much less colorful words what we are specifically looking for before we initiate new long.
NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Both measurements are the highest seen since election night in November 2016. Partially driving the action was earnings from Big Tech, including Apple, Amazon, and Google. Apple is a touch lower than its Thursday close, Google lower, and Amazon higher. At 8:30am non-farm payroll data came out strong.
Also on the economic docket today we have factory/durable goods orders at 10am and U. of Michigan will issue their final read of January sentiment at 10am also.
Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme down. The day began with a gap down just below the Wednesday range. Buyers worked the gap filled but could not rally up beyond the Wednesday high before sellers stepped in and worked price back down to the lows—taking out overnight low late in the session and closing the day near session low.
Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 6896.25. From here we continue higher, up to 6900 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 2 stronger buyers take us up to 6927.75 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 3 sellers push down through overnight low 6844.50 and trade down to 6831.25 before two way trade ensues.
Thu Feb 1, 2018 9:18am ESTComments Off on NASDAQ bounces along lows, still in balance [barely] ahead of Big Tech earnings, here is the trading plan
NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price was all over the place during extended trade. We briefly took out the Wednesday cash low then rallied back up near the highs as investors reacted to earnings out of Facebook and Microsoft. Then, as the evening progressed we sold off, non-stop, traversing the entire range of a large balance that has been building since January 29th. At 8:30am Initial/Continuing jobless claims data came out mixed.
Also on the economic docket today we have ISM manufacturing/employment at 10am.
After the bell Apple, Google, and Amazon report earnings. These are major, market moving events.
Yesterday we printed a normal variation down. The day began gap up. And after a “farewell Yellen” morning raly up through overnight rally we stalled. We stalled just 1.5 points ahead of the open gap left behind on 1/29. This was a slight hint of weakness. From then on the market began working lower, closing the overnight gap before finding a responsive bid late in the day.
Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and test back up into the Wednesday range 6922. Look for buyers to succeed and continue higher, up to close the overnight gap up at 6950.75 before violent, choppy two-way trade ensues.
Hypo 2 sellers press down to 6880.75 before violent choppy two way trade ensues.
Hypo 3 stronger sellers take us down top 6850 before violent choppy two way trade ensues.
NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap up after an overnight session featuring elevated range and volume. Price was balanced overnight, briefly poking above the Tuesday high during the POTUS SOTU address. As we approach cash open price is hovering just above the Tuesday high.
Today is a transition day, economically and socially. A sad day for many. Fed chair Yellen, who has presided over one of the strongest market ever, will finish her final rate decision meeting today at 2pm.
Other less important economic items include pending home sales at 10am and crude oil inventory at 10:30am.
Also and remember, Microsoft and Facebook report earnings after the bell. Alibaba reports before market open Thursday.
It is also January 31st.
Yesterday we printed a normal variation up. The day opened pro gap down and a battle ensued off the open. Sellers pressed down through last Tuesday’s low before finding a strong responsive bid late-morning and choppy, two-way trade ensuing.
Heading into today my primary expectation is for a gap-and-go ‘farewell J.Yell’ rally higher. Look for buyers to reject a move back into the Tuesday range 6969.25 triggering a rally up to the gap at 6992.50 ahead of the FOMC decision. Use 3rd reaction after the Fed decision to dictate direction into the close.
Hypo 2 sellers to work back down into the Tuesday range 6969.25 and close the overnight gap 6936 before continuing lower thorough overnight low 6935.25. Look for buyers ahead of 6920. Use 3rd reaction after the Fed decision to dictate direction into the close.
Hypo 3 stronger buyers rally us to 7017.50 ahead of FOMC decision. Use 3rd reaction after the Fed decision to dictate direction into the close.
