Nasdaq futures are coming into the week flat after a balanced session of overnight trade. There were an interesting set of rotations that occurred from about 3:30 to 4:30am. At that time we shot up nearly 22 point and subsequently gave them all back. The nature of that move may offer a clue into how today’s trade is likely to transpire. We could be setting up a choppy Monday session.
The economic calendar is dotted with events as we start August, and already we’ve heard the Personal Consumption/Income/Spending data at 8:30am. The data came in line with expectations with a few samples a touch better than forecasts. Also on the docket today is ISM Manufacturing. As the week matures, start thinking about Friday morning’s NFP data.
Last week we started gap down and by Tuesday we found buyers and began auctioning higher. The push continued into Wednesday’s FOMC Rate Decision after which we saw buying. Thursday opened gap down and quickly found responsive buyers who turned initiative, and Friday we churned out a normal variation down. Overall we ended the week trying to explore lower prices but not doing a very good job of it.
Heading into today we are working within the confines of several well-established market profiles. This leads me to my primary expectation of chop with a slight upward bias. Despite having a bearish signal heading into the week (RCS) I will be looking for buyers to push higher early on to test the 4600 century mark. I will be looking for sellers here and two way trade to ensue north of the overnight low 4568.25.
Hypo 2 is buyers push up through 4600 then springboard off of it to target 4631.25. From here it is likely we stall out and see sellers come in and roll us over.
Hypo 3 is sellers come in off the open and take out overnight low 4568.25 setting up a push through the lower profile to target 4555 then 4547.50.
Levels:
