Nasdaq futures are trading a touch lower as we head into cash open. The overnight session was normal in terms of range but volume is borderline abnormal. On the economic calendar we have a flurry of low/medium impact events to push through this morning. At 8:30am Chicago Fed National Activity Index and Initial/Continuing Jobless Claims data was out and saw little reaction from the market.
Late on this morning we have Markit Manufacturing PMI at 9:45am, a data dump including Existing Home Sales, Leading Indicators, and Philadelphia Fed at 10am, and Natural Gas storage stats at 10:30am.
Yesterday we printed a curious-looking normal variation day. Price managed to push up to new weekly high before sellers knocked it back flat into the close. The last four sessions have compressed price into a range—the first real contraction in volatility we’ve seen in several weeks.
The action has made the market profile chart a bit odd, so I drew a micro composite volume profile of the last 4 sessions to see better what’s going on here (green and red distribution pictured below).
Heading into today, my primary expectation is for a choppy 2-way open until we push through all the morning data. Look for price to stay contained between 4481.25 to 4504. Then look for buyers to come in and work price higher.
Hypo 2 sellers push down through 4479.25 to open up a liquidation down to 4458.75.
Hypo 3 buyers make a run for yesterday’s session high 4534 to target 4539.
Levels:
