Is Natural Gas a Buy?

One of the great wonders of this world is how Europe escaped the winter without even a little frost on their chins. We were told they were totally dependent upon Russian gas and when that gas was taken away — we were then told ‘EUROPE WILL FREEZE.’

But none of that happened, sadly. And we were left unamused this past UNUSUALLY warm winter, amidst crushingly cheap natural gas prices.

They made it to the warmer climes and not even Ukraine is suffering from any frost on their chin and the market has gotten to the point where natural gas is now considered an absolute joke of a commodity — the clown on the bench atop a pool of water that everyone tries to dunk.

But can natty be setting up for extreme revenge? Is the price action in the low 2s totally taking for granted the possibility that, dare I say, EUROPE WILL FREEZE IN THE WINTER OF 2024?!

I’m not predicting it, rather just pointing out the possibility that markets might feeeeeel inclined to bid up natty in the later parts of summer to hedge against the chance that the winter might be, dare I say, cold.

It’s important to note that tech has been the place to be over the past 10 years of FOMC rigging. But when things go awry, like they did last year, tech is the last place you want your money invested. There is a risk to commodity related stocks during periods of deflation. We saw this take place during the initial COVD stages — due to economic activity grinding to a halt. But it’s also worth reminding you that tech, more or less, traded in lock step lower.

When people ask me where to concentrate, if at all, I will always say basic materials — because if things get better oil prices will increase. If inflation comes back, oil prices will increase. The only bearish scenario is economic collapse and deflation. If that occurs, none of your tech stocks will save you from the pangs over furiously burning fires. I am not suggesting oil stocks will do fantastic in the midst of collapse. I am only suggesting there are more risks associated with tech now, such as earnings misses.

Here are the returns per sector on the YTD scale, 2 week and 1 month.

As you can see, you’re not missing out on some great big tech rally being long commodities. Moreover, and this goes without saying, you’re limited risk by underweighting tech.

I am about to garden now, in order to load up on pollen into my face, so that come Monday I can provide my readers with a good excuse should I lose money. In the event I make money, I will likely declare that my health is very excellent and my mood superb.

Enjoy the weekend.

I, once again, stand before you a victorious man. There were periods of today when my market hand were called into question, especially when I was sleeping from 9:35am to 12pm, suffering from unnatural seasonal allergies. All appeared lost, up until the point when I sat down in front of the turret and started to gun down my enemies one by one and then by the bushel.

In true miracle form, I traded all the way back from a 1.3% deficit to close +10bps — finishing the weak strong +2.75%.

It’s important to note I barely traded well, as I have been physically weak, my mood very grim. Nevertheless, my innate talents to spot things before the happen kicked in and propelled me right near RECOURD ALL TIME HIGHS.

For an ordinary man, such as yourselves, this commentary is annoying. Then again, my talents are public for all to take advantage of and I WHORE MYSELF out for as little as $59 per mo, a fee so paltry — had it not been for my incredible trading — my entire family would likely starve to death.

But that’s neither here or there. The point of this blog is to celebrate me and my achievements and things that pertain to me. It would also be nice if you joined Stocklabs, but not at the basic level — but at the more expensive $99 one.

What will I do with the extra money?

Not much. I probably will just stow it away in a safe box or perhaps buy some wine for my cellar (garage).

Into the weekend, we are hoping for a crypto run. I am happy to report I am long IREN, SDIG and WULF in true degenerate manner, looking forward to the gains to come.

Without sounding too bitchy about the whole ordeal, there are times when I feel, due to my seasonal allergies, I’d prefer to be on the Bakhmut front lines lobbing hand grenades into Ukrainian trenches. Then again, I very much doubt the Bakhmut front lines have my preferred foods and beverages. I often wonder if the soldiers fighting there suffer SEASONAL ALLERGIES as well.

I was awoken to my own sneezing at 5am, and then again at 7am, and again when the market opened at 9:30. I didn’t bother looking at the tape. All I did was deleverage myself and go back to sleep. Because you see, when I am asleep I am not suffering. But now I am awake again, suffering in spite of Claritin 24, down 1% and looking for a way to get my money back.

I am running out of time — and the late afternoon looms. I have no opinions thus far, other than to suggest the market is rancid. I was hoping for something grandiose to shuttle me into the weekend feeling ebullient and proud. I’d venture over to my wife and say — “you see this here? This is my account balance at my brokerage firm. I’d like very much for you to thank me now for my good work and all of my efforts.” She’d glare at me in a combination of pure hatred and respect and change the subject to something like “when are you going to put your shoes away.” And I’d say “indeud, I will take that as a thank you. Next time make it snappier.” And we’d carry on in this carousel of nonsense for the next 25-30 minutes.

Today my brain was addled with sneezes and thoughts about my dead tree. Tomorrow, I shall feast on the bones of my enemies — as I closed the session, albeit weak, up 65bps. I am now 147% LEVERAGED LONG into what I view as a no brainer long trade.

My visions aren’t the result of too many sneezes to the brain, but what I’d like to believe is a vast reservoir of experience and a wealth of knowledge. However, should my gambit fall flat, I will most likely blame it on my seasonal allergies.

Understand something, you are reading the missives of a man whomst is +40% for the annum. The very fact that I bother to update this blog — you should feel fortunate for it and thank the Gods I am charitable enough to offer my insight — FREE FROM CHARGE!

I understand the pecking order of things and know the poor olde hedge fund managers are desperately seeking out higher stocks in order to secure their comfort this summer at the Hamptons — cocaine fueled parties festooned with trannies and mountebanks.

The entire crypto concept was called into question last year, as asset prices dropped — so did BTC-ETH. This chagrined people greatly who said cryptos would be a safe haven during a period of inflation. The flaw in that thinking was to presume another fiat currency would become more attractive than dollars and that inflation would provoke people to move their assets away from dollars.

WRONG.

The inflation was global. All things being equal, the dollar still reigned supreme.

However, during the recent mini banking crisis — we saw something much different. People SOLD dollars and moved those assets into cryptos. There is no debating it. The price of BTC soared as the shares of SBNY, FRC, SIVB and others spiraled lower amidst digital bank runs.

Which brings me to my next suggestion: diversify yourselves against the specter of de-dollarization. The effect won’t happen overnight. Perhaps we’ll see the dollar trade percentage drop from 59% to under 50% over the next decade. Bear in mind, the vast majority of global wealth is still heavily concentrated in the west. However, the trend is undeniable and the risk or even the suggestion that the dollar might fall against other currencies is reason enough to asset allocate into a battle tested currency: Bitcoin.

Because of this, we are seeing the miners soar: MSTR, RIOT, MARA, SDIG, CLSK and others. Whilst they are fun to trade, they are NOT serious replacements for a currency and should not be bought as representation for Bitcoin.

I want to scratch my eyes out. I have been sneezing for the past 30 mins straight, in what seems to be the worst seasonal allergies I’ve had since the morbid times I lived in Staten Island, NY. In that house, similar to this one, I planted lots of flowers and enjoyed gardening and I paid the price in spades many times over. There is no solution or cure, only suffering. I am all but immune to Claritin and the other stuff is child’s play to whatever my idiot head is rejecting.

NEVERTHELESS, I managed in between sneezes to sell my shorts at the open and let me longs bust loose, especially SDIG, and now have gains of 1%. They could’ve been better, no doubt. But given my circumstances, I am lucky and so very fortunate to even type these words into the keyboard without SNEEZING right into the fucking screen — festooning with with mucus and spit.

I’m hungry. Off to fetch myself a snack much to the chagrin of Mrs. Fly who is sure to immediately kick me out of the kitchen on sight.

The fucking people inside of Stocklabs made fun of my terrible tree situation today — all but declaring my new house a hazard zone with a faulty foundation and underground sewage leak — all due to a dead tree in the front lawn. My landscaper is warning me to not plant another tree there, so it looks like I’ll have to fucking seed it and fuck off forever with my tree ideas.

Today’s market was all about good news and bad news.

The good news was I lost money, which means the FUCKS WHO FOLLOW MY TRADES inside the Pelican Room lost money too (join now!).

The bad news is I lost money.

Let there be no fooling here. I am in complete control here and my 1.28% drawdown was nothing for me to worry about. I am still in a state of excellence and the amount of money I make isn’t determined thanks to external events, but the amount of time I want to invest in my trading.

Presently, I am busy with my tree and sneezing. After I get through that, I will depart for Europe for two weeks to see it before it gets destroyed.

All is good at House Fly. The iBankCoin redesign is underway and a multitude of upgrades are planned for Stocklabs. You should join now, in order to replace the fucks in there now — this way I can feel good about making money again.

We plunged the open and looked dead for a bit and now we’re jimmying back up, although slowly and methodically. This is the sort of day you go fishing for your own balls and determine if it’s worth the trouble, or perhaps eat a sandwich and traverse the house for the remainder of the day in search of entertainment.

I have no special insight to feelings in regards to the tape, other than to think very strongly that a massive crash is more than unlikely to occur during the month of April.

I have greater issues at hand, such as a Crape Myrtle tree that appears to be dead. I had it planted in the Fall and was looking forward to its blossom and I traversed the entire country club and my tree is the only one without leaves, so it’s dead and it needs to be replaced.

But why did it die? Is this hole doomed to kill any tree that is planted in it?

Upon burying another tree in this hole, I will have them dig deeper and replace the soil and also test the PH. I will be damned if a 3rd tree dies in this fucking spot.

All I want is to see these plants grow without being too much of a menace. Even so, my allergies all but assure that I suffer enough for just going outside to look at them. I cannot venture out for too long, or else I’ll suffer the entire night. Yesterday Mrs. Fly took me on one of her ludicrous sojourns with the fucking dogs for a 3 mile walk and I paid the price in sneezes for about 10 hrs afterwards.

Into the final hours of trade, my health is middling and my mood grim.

The CPI numbers came in at 5%, steadily trending down. The initial reaction was way up and as soon as stocks opened, it plunged.

I had both UVIX and SOXS at 10% a piece in addition to other leveraged longs and I closed them out at the open, wrongly assuming the small dip would be shallow. But now I see the dip turned into a crevasse and the entire market is being consumed by it.

I’ve since taken a 5% SQQQ and 10% LABD position to stem the tide.

With oil up and rates down, I figured today would be another green day.
But we have given back over 100 NASDAQS and now menace a “sell the news” spectacle over the longs.

For now, I’ll keep the hedges and will likely increase SQQQ to 10%, keeping the shorts light since I already blew it once with them and would prefer to limit my trading errors to a minimum today.