A Little Risk Aversion is Creeping Back into the Tape

A little risk aversion is creeping into this tape. I did my usual thing, closed out all of my positions at the open, including SOXS — which I carried as a hedge. I gained 0.56% so far.

The EV sector is on fire — finally — after TSLA stock has risen 100% in the past month and change. Piece of shit stocks like RIDE and NKLA are ripping. As a matter of fact, many micro cappers are ripping, which is normal in a bull market. The knee jerk reaction you might have is to fade this market because trash is being bought. On the surface, I agree with you. But we can still run higher before we pull back, so you’re better off waiting for a real reversal rather than anticipating it.

I’m all cash aside from my BTC position. I find comfort in being in cash with some morning gains. When I get greedy again, which could be minutes from now, I’ll dive back in.

Back in 2000, I was a young punk stock broker in NYC making fucking bank — fully anointed in liberal shit-think — and also a true believer in the internet and “new economy.” I made fun of the older men in the boardroom who warned me of impending doom and instead told them to “fuck their own faces” whenever I felt like it. I did what I wanted, when I wanted to do it, and no one could stop me. I showed up to work at 11am, in spite of my manager warning me — because I could.

Life was grandiose and the peak of that grandeur happened in March of 2000. During that time, I can vividly recall getting drunk during lunch and drunk again after work — pitching client drunk and having them send millions to a drunkard and thinking it was funny. It was funny — up until the point it ended. I didn’t believe it was over until nothing was left. I wrote two books about it.

Fast forward, 2020-2021 was even worse than the 2000 bubble. We took a breather to inject the planet with poison and then get primed for world war — and now we’re at it again.

So you know, in Stocklabs we measure the technicals of all stocks going back to 1970. We have fancy ways to determine things. Right now, the QQQ is as overbought as late Feb 2000 — registering the 3rd highest score on record.

The type of run we are in squares up just fine with the go-go days when I felt, as a young man, nothing would ever stop it. It’s worth noting, the NASDAQ topped on March 10th 2000 — not late February — which is why I closed the session mostly long with just a 10% hedge in SOXS. I am now +44% for the year.

You are just one man with limited resources. You cannot stand in front of a runaway locomotive and expect it to crash into you and become destroyed. You are a fool if you believe your feelings mean anything at all. The ideas floating about inside of your head are nothing more than a confluence of childhood memories imprinted unto you which created a bias of how the world should be. Perhaps you struggled and saw others doing well and now feel the world would be better off burning. But the person who grew up with fancy pants and shoes never bothered looking at you and never felt an iota of jealously towards anyone else — but instead focused on himself and improving his life.

See how perspective works?

If you are aware of your mental illness, then you can mitigate its risks.

Observe the market. See it reaching towards new highs. Accept this reality. Invest accordingly.

I closed out my shorts at the open, made some coin. Predictably the market went vertical from the open, solidifying my idea that shorts should be closed at every open until that trend changes.

The consensus on Wall Street is we are in a bull market. Even though I am a PERMANENT BEAR, it’s important to conform in order to survive and thrive. As such, I’m long IEP, TLT and ERX now.

I’d love to see mortgage rates go to 15% again. The Fed is likely to hike and since the economy is so strong, one could surmise rates will climb. HOWEVER, that’s all nonsense, since we have over $32T in debt and the world hates our guts. There isn’t a chance in hell rates will be higher today than next year. TLT is a long term hold, but only a trade for me.

Rates will eventually spiral lower, all the way down to 0%.

Up 50bps early going.

I was distracted today by a late day gym effort and numerous issues in my garden. I seem to can’t keep trees alive in my fucking yard and have gone though 3 Crepe Myrtles in 1 year. The one that was just planted last week is dying, leaves wilted, and was dying from the second that fucker planted it. The truth is, the landscaper probably killed it before he planted it in my yard — a regular serial tree killer that guy is.

I lost 79 basis point in listless uninspired trading. I clung onto my SOXS 10% hedge for too long because NVDA is in bubble mode at 40x sales. This position is likely to lose me even more at the open. But I really want to be around when the SOX drops by 30%.

Can I turned it around tomorrow and propel myself back to recourd highs?

I absolutely can and will.

All that said, the Fed is gonna hike again and the regionals raped. The Charles Schwab corporation will trade to ZERO amidst more cash sorting and the war in Ukraine will be lost to NATO and Russia will likely bomb Warsaw by Xmas.

All of these things, and much more, looms — so why not be directionally bearish after such a nice and handsome run?

Later on today, I’ll sulk over a few more things and then maybe pop open a bottle of Burgundy and perhaps BBQ some sort of meat on the grill. I haven’t been cooking at all, since Mrs. Fly has more or less banned me from doing it. I used to enjoy it but now that is over and all I do now is read, listen to books, garden, gym, talk shit online, and various other concerns in regards to consumerism.

I like to review mega winners to see trends and dream about what could’ve been. Every investor, no matter their success, wants to snag a mega winner at least once in their lives. For me, I achieved this twice — once long AOL in the early day into the dot com bubble and then again with ETH — making 17x my money.

The SPY is +168% the past decade, NASDAQ +400% — spearheaded by Apple and Amazon.

What stood out aside from the household names we all know?

CELH +42,000%. I became enamored with this stock several years ago and regrettably sold it. It has achieved great success due to its energy drink. This is a very hard path to replicate.

NVDA 11,500%. We all knew NVDA and saw them struggling to make chips for decades. Then something changed in 2016. Look at the Stocklabs price to sales valuation chart for NVDA.

It leapt from a sleep 3x to 8x because they had chips for crypto mining. Now the stock is trading 40x sales, which is absurd — because of AI. I own the stock in trust accounts and have no plans to sell it.

TSLA +3500%. The innovator of our lifetime.

AMD 3,000%

ENPH 2,600%

AVGO 2,100%

SMCI 2,100%

See a common theme? All semis, a little solar — the shift in human behavior can be easily ascertained here. As an investor, ask yourself now — “how is human behavior shifting now and what areas of the economy stand to win?” After you figure that out, then you can dig into the names that best represent them.

SIRS —

At the beginning of the year I entreated you to step in and buy TSLA. I had even dedicated an account for it inside Stocklabs — whereby I intend to accumulate shares on a dollar cost basis every month for 2 years. Thus far, with half a year in, that account is +37% for the year — as Tesla is now on a frantic 14 day winning streak. I do believe, in spite of what Greg says, Musk is the innovator of our lifetime and the stock should be held.

The other long term conviction hold for me is Bitcoin. The coin proved itself to me during the little banking crisis we underwent, where BTC went up as the banks melted down. That’s all I needed to see, frankly, and I now have a 7% in BTC with an intent on building it to 10%. The melt up scenario is through gradual adoption, need to verify things on the blockchain due to AI, central bank collapses abroad, and overall western banking system collapse.

Since we are on the topic of long term holds, I have another one. I am fairly content with my thinking on this one so I will share it even though I do not own any at the moment.

UBER.

It’s likely to become a trillion dollar company, especially when they completely automate cars and no longer share revenues with drivers. In the future, we will have air taxis and self driving cars and UBER will likely get involved with insurance and nothing business lines to support their empire.

American and German armor getting shredded in the Donbas. More weapons and more death on the horizon, all the while we spend the lives of our Ukrainian brothers so eagerly. If you think about it, since Ukraine is so important, Americans should be in the Donbas, boots on ground, fighting against the Russian hordes. After all, if Ukraine can fight and defend all of the free world — shouldn’t we?

Most conservative estimates point towards 500-1,000 KIA per day on the Ukrainian side. For us to win for them, just like we helped out S. Vietnam, we’d need to send at least 500,000 men. Back in WW1, we fought for 110 days and lost 110,000 lives. I suspect, based off current events, we could expect similar deaths.

The question is: how fast can we defeat the Russian army and force them to heel? We’d have the Flinstones in the Baltics helping us and a neutered German Reich army, as well as a flabby UK gathering. On the whole, we might expect Russia to commit MAXIMUM resistance against a US entry into the war, as well as submarine warfare near Alaska and in the Pacific. Whilst a world war might seem scary to you, you should not be afraid — for we are spending lives in order to save lives — whilst at the same time breaking up the Russian empire and placing one of our own on the Russian throne — someone who could celebrate the month of June with us and regale in the glory of the rainbow standard.

As an aside, a war of this magnitude might require a military draft in the United States — which as you know is exactly the right thing to do because all should contribute in the struggle for freedom and fight back the despotism that our forefathers fought against by dropping gelatin gasoline munitions on women and children in Germany and Japan. Because of those actions, we now enjoy the subservience of those civilizations — bought and paid for with the blood of those not in a position to become exempt or commissioned as an officer behind the line of contact.

I was +212bps today, closed at record highs with a long only book — no hedges.

No one likes all of this prosperity. Man craves danger and bloodshed and death. There is nothing better than the death of stocks that imposes panic unto a deserving public. The people of America have earned a market crash and more than that — wanton unemployment.

The suffering to come will be unlimited in its scope and the individualism that has ball and chained society will swing back to the individual and take off his/her/they/thems face.

Perhaps this is wishful thinking from a man who simply grows weary of it all. I suppose this is how most men feeeeeeel as society changes around their archaic way of thinking. Nevertheless, one can always dream and perhaps dreams can come true.

I read my horoscope today and it read the following:

“If you are not yet on the move it won’t be long before you are off on your travels again and having the time of your life. You will be super popular too, so don’t turn down invitations unless you absolutely have to. Get out there and shine!”

INDEUD.

What I need to do is become “super popular” and travel more — perhaps shine a bit. I do believe, as I have said here numerous times — that I am a very good person — powerful even. I also believe, due to thoughts in my head, that I have much to offer. For example, I am very very good at trading stocks, investing for long term, intuitively feeeeeeeling market directions. I should get out there and share my ideas more often — perhaps create a chatroom where I can offer advice to people and maybe inside of that room I can have TOOLZ for the market — you know build stuff that I use to find stocks that allow me to have success. I could name it something, like Stocklabs, and invite people to join it and maybe, just maybe, they too can enjoy success and be at RECOURD HIGHS.

On the issue of market collapse, I do believe there are shoes in the balance of the dropping varietal. From what I have gathered, via my astrological reading, the droppings shall commence in about 1 week and 7 days hence, a fortnight or one half of one month — common parlance for two weeks.

Let’s talk about me. I stepped into today, an important CPI number, leveraged long at 105% equity. I chose the best stocks, drank some Burgundy, and had an overall great sushi dinner.

The CPI data was of course BETTER THAN EXPECTED and now stocks are flying. Since I do not like to be tricked, I booked all of my gains this morning and kept just the very safe BTC and IEP on the books. I’m up 160bps to new RECOURD HIGHS.

How do I keep doing this? Very easy — I use Stocklabs. Whilst that sounds like a sales pitch, it’s also true. I use nothing else to find stocks.

Since I’m mostly cash now I’ll be taking it easy for the next few hours, since I deserve a rest.