No One Likes the Poors

The reason why people are poor is not very complicated. At times a person might run into some bad luck, be located in an area that is filled with morons making it impossible to get rich, or the occasional collapse from grace via poor investments/black swan expensive events. But for the most part, people are selected to be poor because they can’t do any better, aka morons.

I’ve been studying people my whole life and the only people who like poor people are the very rich and the very poor. The people in the middle have lived amongst the poors and understand they’re morons. The rich folk have never lived amongst them and view them like they might view a panda bear, cute and fluffy from afar. They do all sorts of things to help the poors, but in the end they’re really only helping their egos.

You can see the dichotomy of people hating the poors in the market, just by looking at the $IWM (small caps) vs the $QQQ (large caps). People like winners and they’ll continue to bet on them, providing they too can enjoy the ride. No one wants to ride in a beat up jalopy destined for the discount 99 cent store. People want to be in the Rolls en route to a luxury store.

Now the issue of materialism and consumerism is another topic to discuss, perhaps at a later date. Ironically, it’s chiefly responsible for poor people remaining poor due to their low esteems and proclivity to peacock vis a vie ornaments. The sneakers on your feet aren’t impressive. But alas you can never speak any sense to the poors since they’re too stupid to understand the concept of future.

People are throwing themselves out from windows due to the latest foray lower by $BTC into the depth of hades. While amusing to see, I wanted to illuminate some inexorable facts about asset prices: at times they trade lower.

With $BTC straddling $58k, it is already down 8.2% for July. Last year it was down 5.2% for July and back in 2016 it was down by 10.3%. Last year August it fell again by 10.4% and in 2016 by 5.3%. Bitcoin bounced in September of 2023 and 2016 by 4.7% and 7.3%, respectively. And then they absolutely busted loose in October by 27% and 18.6%.

The point I am making is, do not be deterred by short term movements for a long term idea. Also, don’t view every dip as an opportunity to buy. The best way to deal with a volatile asset is to dollar cost average once per month. And, don’t ever jump out of a window because you lost money. Look up at the sky and the trees and see how beautiful it all is and go to the gym instead.

Have a happy 4th.

As you stuff hot dogs down your gullets and wash them down with swill, consider the fact that your country no longer represents your interests and haven’t done so in decades. As presently constituted, you have very narrow mission statements within the frameworks of the two political parties.

With democrats you get white replacement, never ending wars, LGBTQ, trannies, ugliness, weakness, distorted academia professing the virtues of sub quality civilizations with the intent to shame the host people, tyranny under the guise of liberalism, mass censorship, corporate oligarchy, distortion of science, atheism and satanism, pedophilia and all manners of mental illness, the destruction of the current economic structure to be replaced by communism.

With republicans you get fealty to Israel, never ending wars, Anti China, Anti Muslim, Anti liberal rhetoric which creates an environment of conflict and enemies at all times, faux conservatism, faux nationalism with leaders saying one thing but doing another. You also receive misinformation about all facets of American foreign policy while failing to stop the obvious and terminal white genocide occurring in the nation, which also offers the people of this country higher housing, tuition, healthcare, food and insurance prices and with the added bonus of competing vs Indians and asians for high paying jobs because of H1b visa policies designed once again to replace you.

A long time ago the leaders of America decided to go to war with the greatest military power in the world because they were being taxed and their interests were not being heard. It’s hard to imagine those men in today’s environment and not taking up arms against what seems to be an occupying power.

Enjoy your 4th of July and make sure to shoot mortars into the sky amidst the festive background of BBQ’s and American flags, kids running around with nothing but joy on their faces growing up in a country that hates them.

I am sort of taking the day off, might blog later. I am fully invested and up. Here are the top rated industries in Stocklabs right now.

I traded poorly today, getting in too late and leaving too early. After realizing I was off, I slowed my trading down and leaned into some ETFs, heading into tomorrow with a book 100% long and leveraged. For my troubles, I shed 45bps; but I have numerous accounts and net net I made money.

These are the accounts that I focus on:

Fly trading: day trading, larger account focused on alpha
Solana: I buy $SOL monthly
Stocklabs Quant: I allocate into 16 new stocks every month all taken from the Stocklabs algorithims.
Strategic: My best longer term ideas
Tesla Uber Focus: Last year I bought $TSLA each month like paying a bill. This year I do that with $UBER.

In addition to my stocks, I own a decent amount of $BTC and various other shitcoins. I also maintain and manage trust accounts for my children and occasionally adjust things in Mrs. Fly’s portfolios.

Lastly, I’d like to leave you with some stats, food for thought. These are all of the months the NASDAQ fell by more than 3% dating back to 2010.

Month,Percentage Drop
May 2010,-8.39% (1)
August 2011,-6.42%
September 2011,-6.36% (2)
April 2012,-3.46%
May 2012,-7.19% (2)
June 2013,-3.52% (1)
October 2014,-3.53% (1)
August 2015,-6.86% (1)
January 2016,-7.86% (1)
zero for 2017
February 2018,-3.88%
October 2018,-9.20%
December 2018,-9.48% (3)
May 2019,-7.93%
August 2019,-4.57% (2)
February 2020,-6.38%
March 2020,-10.12%
September 2020,-5.16% (3)
January 2022,-9.49%
April 2022,-13.26%
June 2022,-8.71%
September 2022,-10.50%
December 2022,-8.73% (5)
August 2023 -3.44% (1)

It’s worth noting that every single year going back to 2010 is accompanied by at least one down 3% month for the Nasdaq, except in 2017 when the worst month was -1.27%. In he larger scheme of things, we have been in an unprecedented bull matrket, only interrupted by the COVID lockdowns of 2020 and the Russian war scare of 2022. What you should take from this is that markets go higher but when they don’t the news is introduced with ample time to take action.

Stocks under $10b in market cap are down 0.4% today. Stocks over $10b in cap are down 0.1%.

Year to date, all stocks are down about 4% in spite of the fact that the NASDAQ is +18%. How could this be? Well, look at $TSLA today, higher by 9% in an otherwise unremarkable tape. The tape has been unremarkable for some time now, yet shares of $NVDA are +500% in the past 3 years, $LLY +285%, $AVGO +250%, $NVO +237%, and old $MCK is +200%.

If you’re trying to find those sort of gains in the smaller capped space, you’ll need to be really lucky and good.

My point is, you didn’t have to be clever or good to catch $NVDA, $TSLA or $LLY. You simply had to accept the doctrine that oligarchies and giant monopolies are what rules dominion over the west now. There is a unholy alliance between the soulless corporate world and the political one whose sole purpose is to distort and blemish the historical make up of America and the west, replacing it with a bastardized version of capitalism that only favors members of the club.

The Pax Americana you grew up in no longer exists. It was eden in comparison to what we have today, a depressed society of grifters and consumers, exchanging meaningless commerce with one another in a never ending race towards peak materialism. Everything has been commoditized and nothing is artful or sacred anymore, through the prism of Godless leftists whose #1 goal is to destroy the strong and the beautiful and replace it with weakness and depravity.

Some of you delusional catamite Elon haters are going to get triggered from this post, rightfully so. That’s because shares of $TSLA have broken the fuck out and has been shitting down your necks for the better part of the past month.

And it’s just getting started.

Out of all the tera cap companies traded, shares of Tesla are the cheapest. It is the company with the best brand in EV and the best CEO, yet is down 15% YTD and down 20% over the past year.

Just to give you an idea of how much an outlier of the $TSLA underperformance out of the top 25 largest capped companies listed, only 4 have losses YTD.

$TSLA down 15.5%
$UNH down 6%
$JNJ down 6.5%
$HD down 3%

Naturally I am long term bull on $TSLA. There are only two stocks that I feel emphatic about for future gains: $TSLA and $UBER.

You might think this is hyperbole but it’s true. The NASDAQ quite literally NEVER trades down in July. As a point in fact, the index has traded lower just once since 2007.

Data provided by Stocklabs

It is, by far, the highest probability up month of the year. This doesn’t mean we can’t start new cool trends in 2024; but the odds aren’t exactly in your favor, providing you’re a retarded bear.

Trade accordingly whilst junior mans the turret.

We have traded down just 1 time in July the past decade; but today is a not a good way to continue this trend. Aside from the breakout in coal, which I will get to in a second, we are seeing more distribution in many key areas of the market save the financials. It’s also worth noting US treasury yields are skyrocketing today, +11bps.

Aside from $AAPL, $TSLA, $AMZN and a handful of other mega cap stocks, we are in sell mode with breadth bogged down at around 30%. It should be noted, we haven’t enjoyed breadth of more than 60% since June 10th, which points to the fact rallies have been mean and narrow.

I am +25bps with 63% cash and a $TZA hedge ay 6%. I’m not particularly bearish, since I am net bullish. But the action speaks for itself and I see no reason to risk too much in a tape yielding so little.

On the matter of coal:

There was a report out today suggesting coal will benefit from the rapid scale out of datacenters, due to AI.

PMVirginia has long been known as ?“Data Center Alley,” with about 70 percent of global internet traffic passing through its servers, according to The Wall Street Journal. Dominion Energy said that because of data centers, its electricity demand in Virginia could quadruple and represent 40 percent of total demand in the state over the next 15 years. Georgia and Tennessee have also seen much data center construction and speculation. Utilities like TVA, Duke, and Dominion have announced plans to build more gas plants and keep coal plants open longer in those states, along with building renewables.

(rolls eyes)

I’ve been trading and writing as if everything were normal but I’ve felt really terrible all week, losing a friend to cancer. We were in touch often and I’d try to encourage him with videos via Instagram (my last video to him), and of course he’d participate in the juvenile banter inside Stocklabs. Like many of the people I enjoy spending my time with, they start off as my customers. In this regard, I am blessed.

A lot of people are downcast about the country and the direction it is taking. That’s the macro and I do not deny it. But the micro is filled with anecdotal acts of kindness. In spite of being a person seemingly teeming with rage, I often find myself in awe of the greatness of the people around me. I do believe people instinctively want to do good, at least most people, and life gets in the way of ruining it. People are also prone to sin and bad behavior compounds over time to exponential levels until reversion occurs.

I can take this blog in several different directions now, as I write with a stream of conscious. I’d like to keep it optimistic and point towards some of the better things to celebrate, such as my account closing near RECOURD highs. I bet you catamites thought I was finished and could not do it again, but I did.

I closed June up nearly 2%. Markets did better but most managers I know did worse. As a point in fact, my quant was hammered to dust for 5.7%; and I must admit, that took me by surprise. We seem to be undergoing a bit of rotation or pausing before legging up again.

Either way, markets tend to almost always trade up in July, so don’t expect much else.

Cheers to a great weekend and continuing to enjoy the best qualities of life.