I could not just sit back and watch myself get obliterated. It’s not in my blood.
I sold most of my ERY, FXP and all of my SMN, for losses.
With cash on hand and proceeds from inverse sales, I bought the following: URE, C, BAC, CBL, ABX, FAS, TNA, GE and UYM.
I kept my SRS, FAZ positions intact. My goal: stop the bleeding and make some quick money into the meat grinder.
My guess, we print a close at or near the highs of the day. Then, we gap up tomorrow. I want to fade tomorrow’s gap, via sales of my long positions. However, at the moment, my appetite to short this lunatic market is nil.
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How’s that SRS working for you?
I don’t know how they can get away with that shit.
Look at AAPL bleed
sold hard into the rally… who knows if we get gap up tomorrow… we may as well close off the highs and start tomorrow in red…
I bet you could not pull a needle out of DEVILDOG’s ass with a tractor right now.
Dont you think it’s a little too late for that? It’s overextended and the momentum is losing steam.
I’m speaking
Let’s see how the SRS I bot at $75 is doing. Long term support. Looks like… OH MY FUCKING GOD!
I just can’t sit with my US holding knowing they are going to take a beating in the FX along with what the bears willl do to this rally in the new year.
how can you guys sit on your US dollars now?
Stop Trading. You suck at it. You don’t want an angry wife when you are broke.
it’s now a game of ‘who wants to avoid the tax man for the next week’.
my guess is that we close out the year higher, but i would not be long after dec 26.
Good call, Cramer sez buy C too.
Donny buys the demonic bastard, FAZ, at the close for 36.03 – 36.10.
whats with the spam? This one asshat is going to cause the fly to take the comments section away
oh lol. the THIS IS THE is part of the site. I see lol.
4FL3X:
You, are a fucking cocksucker.
to let you all know that it leads to hell
Indeed, I will sell off my GS long, FAS tomorrow in a high gap. I will keep UYM until dollar stops sliding.
BEAR IN MIND, this is the first time in MONTHS we are above 50 EMA. Should be awfully bullsih in a technical level.
UYG up 19% today but down 10% from a week ago, hehe.
well, we did close at the highs… lets see if we get the gap up tomorrow…
AAPL was misbehaving today
That was awesome ! There must be some bears with sore asses right now. The market is a rapist and has turned its attention on the bears. I wonder how Atilla the Hun and his followers and their S&P 600 call made out. LMAO ….
Right or wrong…Obama will single handedly save UYM…
not sure why people bought homebuilders today… just because the short term rate is 0 does not mean that the dishwashing lady can afford 700K home again.
Ah, but the dishwashing lady can APPEAR to afford 700k home…and my friend can make all the difference…
Enough with the ‘this is the’ bunch of fucking retards.
Actually, I think the best call was the “New lows on Nov 19th, Write this shit down!!” odd, no?
Yes, GE and INTC
What, are we all 12 yrs old now with the ‘this is’ a bunch of fucking retard routine? Man up, bitches.
who are you calling retard mister?
The Fly is God.
If fly were god, he’d have the foresight to buy a space heater.
Where the hell is DEVILDOG? He must be way under water on those shorts. New highs this month didn’t he say? Time to come out and play.
Bonds, oh the humanity!
i just woke up, did anything happen?
haha just kidding i woke up 45mins ago. i put in a few shorts at the close “just for fun”
this is why i got rid of my iyr yesterday. market was looking for a bullshit excuse to rally (quiet volume motherfuckers), instead they got a real present from uncle benny (and they still couldn’t do a “crazy partytime” 10% move to really scare the bears to their caves).
err got rid of my iyr shorts.
>>>Ah, but the dishwashing lady can APPEAR to afford 700k home
i do not think so, the jig is up
If you’re going to play these proshares ETF’s and hold overnight, you need to short the opposite of what you want.
4FL3X: it’s very hard to get those available for short, I would so do that otherwise. it’s free money to short the ultrashort and ultralong of the same underlying, the only problem is (i believe) some hedge fund is systematically grabbing them the moment they become available.
I wonder if Doug Kass is “enjoying” his favorite short, TLT?
I made a post how I am up 100% on my SLW position. Hopefully I will be able to get away without anyone noticing I was short 5 ES contracts this morning…
Time to get some pussy….
In other news, Dikshit pleads guilty.
Wow. The Fed must be in total panic mode.
Funny that taking rates down to 1% last time around is part of the reason we’re in this shit hole and now their solution? Take them to zero! We’re screwed.
I’m breaking the trend with the feckless herd in regards to ‘THIS IS THE ….. SPEAKING’ phenomenon.
SRS has got to trend positive soon. How many mom and pop/chain retail locations will make it past the first quarter of 2009?
They are selling Chinese made products at or near cost during the most important month of the year.
Who is going to be starting small storefront businesses with the lack of credit and consumers? Where is the demand?
everything pumps here .. except oil and AAPL … the OPEC must react now.. doing also a “sharp” rate cut in supply is inevitable … i recommend -50% …
It’s rigged. Just like the market.
I can’t believe all the negativity on this board. My god people, wake the fuck up. Why in the fuck would you want to bet against someone who can print money at will? The guy with the printing press just said he’s going to do whatever the FUCK it takes to rescue this economy. Don’t be an idiot. Don’t bet against the man who runs the printing press. That would be STUPID AS SHIT. Madoff like.
market went down 50% watching that same guy print the money
There is good news on the way though.
Brought to you by leonardthemonkey.
‘So Warren Buffet is buying into a Chinese car company which is much further ahead in mass producing electric cars then any of our companies are.
62 miles on electric then switches to gas.
9 hours to charge on a regular outlet.
$22,000 new.
Car is already developed and will be mass produced next year. It will start selling here in 2011.
Wow – GM is coming out with an electric car that costs $40,000 plus that they will lose money on each sale and that still tends to occasionally catch on fire.
Ford doesn’t know what future technology means and Chrysler – why are they even still here?
Pick one car company or merge a couple – partner with a company like Buffets that has technology years beyond your own and start to make a viable company out of it. They make us partner up when we go over there and then they steal all of our technology and best practices. It’s about time we get something in return.
I would even think about buying a $22,000 electric car.’
Yesterday I linked to story about the NY Gov. wanting to tax non-diet sodas. Today here is a link to NC wanting to tax high mileage drivers. Something for NY to think about, too.
http://www.charlotteobserver.com/597/story/415604.html
Let the Revolution begin!!
Explains AAPL trade today?
Apple® today announced that this year is the last year the company will exhibit at Macworld Expo. Philip Schiller, Apple’s senior vice president of Worldwide Product Marketing, will deliver the opening keynote for this year’s Macworld Conference & Expo, and it will be Apple’s last keynote at the show. The keynote address will be held at Moscone West on Tuesday, January 6, 2009 at 9:00 a.m. Macworld will be held at San Francisco’s Moscone Center January 5-9, 2009.
Apple is reaching more people in more ways than ever before, so like many companies, trade shows have become a very minor part of how Apple reaches its customers. The increasing popularity of Apple’s Retail Stores, which more than 3.5 million people visit every week, and the Apple.com website enable Apple to directly reach more than a hundred million customers around the world in innovative new ways.
Apple has been steadily scaling back on trade shows in recent years, including NAB, Macworld New York, Macworld Tokyo and Apple Expo in Paris.
WHERE IN THE WORLD IS DEVILDOG???
Doggy,Doggy Doggy, where are you? DD maybe is licking his gay ass with the shorts…
New lows for Devildog this month.
Write it down.
-DT
tradercaddy… thanks for the link… unfortunately, i live in charlotte…
AAPL Shitting itself in AH…badly.
seldom seem in AAPL to behave like this.
I have already started to weasel out of my prediction – I now say new lows this month or…………next month – get it?
Dinosaur versus a Dog … Dinosaur wins.
Dinosaur versus the devil …devil wins.
It’s a toss up.
after 7 days if nagging fly finally gets on the right side of the trade …. and allotta beartards out there still even more stubborn than him
AAPL has alot of calls capping it, spells trouble, read article on Scheaffersresearch.com
JakeGint, what did you think it rhymed with?
Anybody know what the hell happened to Ducati? Is his blog still around? His take here would be nice.
Speaking?
DD is looking for another tranche from daddy warbucks … sorry son take your losses.
SRS is a joke…you have better odds at winning in a Casino..SRS goes up and own 20% for no real reason…Commercial Real Estate is going to be in poor shape come January when more retailers close their doors and more small businesses leave their leases in bankruptcy…even though that is my opinion I would not touch SRS with a 10 foot pole…
Just sharing some feedback I sought and received at link I had listed recently:
—
Bob Brill
December 16th, 2008 at 09:35#1 Please let me know if you perceive any advantage to shorting the 2x Ultra Real Estate ETF (URE) rather than the 1X ETF IYR. All comments and explanations are appreciated. I see from your description the URE would be subject to the “random day-to-day sequential price movements” but I’m interested whether being on the short/opposite/house side of the multiplier ETF would work to my advantage.
Mr. EB
December 16th, 2008 at 17:12#2 If you want more exposure than 1x ETFs give you, just buy more of them. The 2x funds are generally more illiquid, so you also lose on the bid/ask slippage. If you don’t have enough money to get the exposure you want from 1x fund, you shouldn’t be in 2x funds in the first place (IE: you don’t have enough capital to trade them with this crazy volatility). By doing the 2X fund, you are basically betting the index will go down day after day after day sequentially, I just don’t think that is a smart unless you have a crystal ball. It’s hard enough to get the fundamentals right, not the direction of the market for many days in a row.
—
http://www.earningsbreakout.com/2008/12/10/beware-of-2x-inverse-etfs/
A worthy demonstration of the principle of the conservation of Reality, which says that the continuum will change in order to nullify the effect of a time-machine.
Inventing 2x and 3x thingies was very resourceful of the continuum!
Does that meat grinder come with a big funnel on top?
Why have you stolen my salutation?
Regular poster:
It rhymes with the following:
Wake Gins, HeyBen!
_________
Raptor:
To fuck with you, why else?
Didn’t you know December 16th is Raptor Appreciation Day?
_______
Devil Dog will be have his own entry, very soon.
_________
The DEVILDOG will soon be fully debanked. Actually all shorts will soon be annihilated, no way this market will go back down with rates at 0.25% Prepare your DOW 15,000 rally hats and other egregious celebration items.
Well it looks like SRS is going from 300 to 25 in about a month. How can you possibly trade something that acts like this, its a shit show ready to fuck you over.
Gappy,
SRS is all for daytraders… as is SKF.
-DT
This is truly amazing. Love this market, as it’s just so interesting.
I think you just have to buy banks and “risky” assets. We could actually have a melt up with this.
I’m still long gold, Aussie (risky asset) and Euro.
DT – Yeah I know its just amazing the movement though, its horribly hard to day trade it even unless your on the 30 second chart.
Totally. I had bids in for SRS today ahead of $65 and got blasted quicker than you can say “Ducati is gay.”
Tough to trade, no doubt. Fun though.
-DT
Gapping:
You shouldn’t get satisfaction from people losing money.
The Dog is a man of true conviction. People ought to respect that.
————
MMA Comments for the Week Beginning December 15, 2008
Written by Raymond Merriman
Please note that the Forecast for 2009 book is now completed and all orders that were received as of December 10 have been sent out as of December 12. Those that were received afterwards will be sent out early this coming week. It is quite amazing. The pre-orders for this year’s book were double last year’s pre-pub orders – and last year was a record for us. I think that the more uncertain the world seems to become, the greater the demand for the information of Financial and Mundane Astrologers. I am grateful for all the support readers have exhibited. Thank you, and may every one have a very happy holiday season.
Also please note that there will be no column next week, as I will be on holiday in Europe. But I will be giving the Forecast speech in Amsterdam, Saturday, December 20, and I look forward to meeting many readers at that event.
Review and Preview
It was a week that was as complex and dynamic as the signatures of Financial Astrology suggested. In political news, the House passed a bailout loan program for troubled US automakers in the middle of the week, only to have the loan defeated by the Senate late Thursday night, only to have the President and Treasury Secretary announce on Friday that they just happen to have enough money in their bailout program for financial institutions available to help out.
As schizophrenic (and hypocritical and even criminal) as some US lawmakers behaved last week, the financial markets also exhibited quite a frenetic movement in their price behavior. Many of the world’s stock indices were strong early in the week, some later in the week, but all fell on Friday following the Senate defeat of the bailout for automakers. In Europe, all the indices we track made new monthly highs last week, and all were up 17-20% from this multi-year lows (or secondary lows) of November 21.
In the Far East, it was a little more extreme both ways. That is the Australian All Ordinaries index was quite subdued. It failed to make monthly high last week, and in fact it only appreciated 12.5% from the lows of November 21. The Japanese Nikkei and NIFTY index of India was more in line with Europe, with both up about 17-18% from their lows of late November. But the greatest excitement was in Hong Kong, which soared to a new 2-month high of 15,781 on Thursday. This was up 33% from its low of November 21, and nearly 50% from its low of October 27. It was nice to see the markets rebound so strongly in China again, and it gives hope for other parts of the world. It virtually assures that the lows of October were at least a 50-week cycle trough, the first market to confirm a longer-term cycle of all the markets we track. Let’s hope others soon follow.
In the America’s, there was much excitement in Argentina, where the Merval index rallied to 1103 on Thursday, up 28% from its November 21 low of 861. The Bovespa of Brazil was up 20% during the same period. But in the United States, it was even more impressive as the DJIA crossed above 9000 again for the first time in a while. That was up 29% from the 6995 low of November 21. The NASDAQ Composite also made a new weekly high early last week at 1602, up nearly 24% from the 1295 low of November 21.
All in all, it was a good week for stocks until Thursday-Friday. Most were making new monthly highs as we entered the powerful “translation” zone of Sun and Mars conjunct, squaring the Saturn-Uranus opposition, December 10-15. In fact, astrologers will record this period as a T-Square formation. The full moon of Friday, December 12 was even a Grand Square pattern, something rare and a bit tense in the study of astrology. Indeed it was tense if you were a politician or employee of a US automobile company or labor union.
Other markets were also dramatically affected by last week’s financial astrology signatures. Treasuries, for instance, roared to another new all-time on Friday’s full moon, grand square to Saturn-Uranus. Agricultural and grain prices also rallied smartly last week. Corn, for example, was up nearly 25% in just one week. Crude Oil had a 20+% rally from its multi-year low of one week ago to its high on Thursday. Gold soared form 741 to 835 off its lows of last Friday, nearly a $100 gain in only 4 trading days. Ad the Japanese Yen soared to a new 13-year high against the U.S. Dollar. It was, indeed, a typical Sun conjunct Mars, square Uranus week. The only problem is, under these kinds of signatures, nothing is typical, and nothing is certain. It is one surprise after another.
Short-Term Geocosmics
We are still in the midst of the December 10-15 time band of important geocosmic signatures. On December 10, the Sun formed a waning square to Uranus. On December 12, Mars formed a waning square to Uranus and the Sun foamed a waxing square Saturn. On December 15, Mars completes this translation with its waxing square to Mars. Also on Friday, December 12, the full moon was forming a grand square to Sun, Mars, Saturn, and Uranus. There is some history here to draw from. First of all, there was also a full moon in hard aspect to the Saturn-Uranus opposition on September 15. You may remember this was the day that the financial crisis began, and by the end of the week, lawmakers could not agree on the form of this bailout plan demanded by Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson. It was the beginning of a huge decline in stock markets around the world. The Dow Jones for instance, was trading about 11,400 on the day of that full moon as our most reliable selling indicator – Hank Paulson – gave public TV address to the nation. Congress was hastened to convene to pass his new idea of a financial rescue package – and they couldn’t agree. Does it sound a little bit like what happened this week with the US automakers and Congress? One arm says it is a “go” and we have to do it or else we risk catastrophic consequences, and the other arm defies the threat. Everything fell apart as financial markets – and society – entered a state of panic.
This set up is known as a “translation” of the faster moving bodies to the slower moving planets, notably Saturn and Uranus. The last “translation” we had to Saturn and Uranus happened on Election Day, November 3-4, when Venus transited in a hard aspect to Saturn and Uranus, just as the Sun and Mars are doing right now. You may remember stock markets around the world were rallying into that time frame too, only to start a swoon down for the next 17 days to new multi-year lows in many of them.
So here we are again. We have entered another important full moon – just 90 days later (that’s important when it is 90 days later). Just as 90 days ago, Congress cannot agree on an important financial bailout program, and they close the week in total disarray, with the American public shaking their heads wondering who these people are that they have elected to serve the interests of this nation. Who are they serving? This is the question on most Americans minds, and this is why the nation (and the world) is so eager to see the new leadership take over. And just like November 4, the last time a planet made a “translation:” to the Saturn-Uranus opposition, we also see the stock markets of the world making new monthly highs. The question now is will history repeat, and will we see another stock market crash into the end of this year? Or will it be different this time?
We may get that answer in about a week. From December 22-31, we will find the Sun and Mars both forming a conjunction to Pluto, ending with Saturn turning retrograde. What makes this especially interesting is that the Sun and Mars are essentially now making a “translation” to the forthcoming Uranus-Pluto square of 2012-2015, the heaviest planetary aspect of all within the greater celestial pattern known as the Cardinal Climax (2008-2015… for more information on this, please refer to a more detailed article on my website at http://www.mmacycles.com). This translation of Sun-Mars to Uranus-Pluto is taking place from December 10-28. We will have a preview of what to expect in 2012-2015 during this period. But for now, our concern is that stock markets have been rallying into the start of this period. We are also concerned because Mars is about to ingress from Sagittarius into Capricorn, December 27 a time which has been historically a historically dangerous time for Israel and its neighbors, and a time corresponding to big reversals in interest-rate related markets. Could it happen during the High Holiday season, traditionally a time when markets and the world are quiet and in peace? I suppose if the U.S. financial markets can fall into a panic just six weeks before a U.S. election (instead of afterwards), anything is possible under the Cardinal Climax.
Longer-Term Thoughts
As much as financial analysts and talking heads on TV financial shows are projecting even lower interest rates, my interpretation of geocosmic and cycle studies suggest just the opposite. We are very near to a critical turning point, and once it turns, we may not see these low interest and mortgage rate levels again in our lifetime. I happen to be in the camp that this deflationary period is going to end very abruptly with a new inflation monster. Combined with the forthcoming stimulus package, and ramped up government spending programs and unbelievable federal deficits, I think that by the time we get to the Jupiter-Neptune conjunction in the spring and summer, we have shifted from deflationary fears to inflationary fears.
We will talk more about the 14-year Jupiter-Neptune cycle in coming columns. In fact, Jupiter and Neptune will both be in a powerful mutual reception with Uranus for almost the entire year of 2009. For now, suffice it to say that it is the “Return to Camelot,” a resurgence of hope and faith in a new leader. We need that, because just before and after this period lays the intense signatures of Saturn, Uranus and Pluto, which might be equated to a fear of Armageddon. Yes, that the kind of dualistic reality (or illusion) we are living in now and next year: Camelot versus Armageddon. It is enough to make you feel like a character in an X-Box video game.
I keep asking myself, what is going to happen to our economy if the Fed plan of ZERO percent doesn’t work. These fucking morons placed America into this situation, and now they’re possibly destroying our future. I hate these scumbags!
There … I feel better now. 8)
I’m still very much in the green with my SHORTS from 9/19 and I have no intention of covering in response to rates at zero. I’m holding for a S&P 5 handle for the intermediate bottom. I’m even more BEARISH today than I was yesterday. If benny and paulson are your idea of heroes then buy stocks. Me…I’m betting with Mother Nature. The Greater Great Depression and a socioeconomic Revolution are a done deal. You ain’t seen nothin’ yet.
i like it DD….i am adding tomorrow…..this is bullshit….when/if i make money from my short positions, im moving to new zealand or some shit like that…its like the west coast of the U.S and British Columbia but with only 4.1M people
Donny, Dog.
You understand that we could have a great, greater depression with a higher stock market, don’t you?
This is not like the great depression. It resembles what happened with the Hyperinflation in germany. Stock could be at Dow 15,000 and you could still be down in real terms if the Fed is not careful here.
You guys are thinking that the contraction will be a deflationary one. What if it’s an inflationary depression which is most likely as the Fed is and will expand the balance sheet to basically nullify the value of debt?
Jig and the PM there was once my trading assistant…. True
Think of Fly’s Vincenzo who makes good and becomes the Prez. LOL
Just be worried that if our creditors decide “enough is enough”, 0% interest rate, trillions of debt and losses thanks to the Fed accepting trillions of worthless securities as collateral, we will become like Argentina. Fun times.
Bernanke may go down as Bush’s worst mistake ever, which is saying a lot (*cough* WMD *cough*). Freaking college professor academic with no experience whatsoever. Even Greenspan didn’t do this. And you think Volcker would of gone to 0%?
Sigh.
B52s ‘r Us
This morning’s economic data was on the weak side, not surprisingly. What I was most curious to see today: how the market would react to Goldman Sach’s losses. The company actually bled more than was expected, but GS managed to jump about 7% in the first hour of trading (before closing 15% higher on the day). That outcome is exactly what I’d been thinking would occur, given how the market has looked to me lately. (Heading into its earnings report, I even considered buying the stock, but I knew that if it went 10 cents against me, I’d probably be shaken out.) Similarly, Best Buy had nothing good to say, which didn’t stop that stock from popping 10% higher in the early going. In any case, heading into the FOMC, the market itself was higher by about 1%.
I decided to turn on Bubblevision to hear the talking heads chatter about the announcement. When the news was read, I got a kick out of the fact that Bill Gross’s jaw dropped as the Fed let it be known that essentially they’d be holding future FOMC meetings at Strategic Air Command just outside of Omaha, Nebraska, so as to be closer to the B52s with which they plan on delivering money to the country posthaste. In any event, after admitting that the economy was liable to be quite anemic, the Fed noted that “weak economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels” for quite some time. Basically, there was no chance that rates would be rising anytime soon.
“Gold $36,000”
For any doubters out there, the last paragraph of the communique read: “The Federal Reserve will purchase large quantities of agency debt and mortgage-backed securities . . . and it stands ready to expand its purchases of agency debt and mortgage-backed securities as conditions warrant.” Furthermore, “the Committee is also evaluating the potential benefits of purchasing longer-term Treasury securities.” My friend Jim Grant said that paragraph should have had the subhead: “Gold $36,000.”
In other words, the Fed went for it — corroborating the view that many of us have held for some time: that when push came to shove, they would let nothing stand in the way of printing any amount of money and monetizing anything required to fend off the ill effects of the unwinding bubble. Of course, there’s an unwritten sequel to this story: The Fed will never get around to taking any of that liquidity back out. Thus, whenever the economy stabilizes, at whatever level, the rate of inflation seen shortly thereafter will be quite substantial, I would guess.
As for the post-FOMC action, within minutes the market was up about 3%. It saw some violent swings but headed higher, before backing off to close up better than 4% on the day.
Away from stocks (heading into the communique): the dollar was weaker, oil was under pressure, and Treasurys were a touch higher, as were precious metals. Afterwards, the dollar weakened drastically, oil was slightly lower, Treasurys screamed even higher, and precious metals properly interpreted the Fed’s move as a reason to rally. That, as gold and silver closed 3% and 4% higher, respectively.
Pay Heed to the Worst-Has-Been-Seen Psychology
Readers have known for about a month now that I have not really wanted to be short, as I’ve felt it’s been too dangerous. And, generically, I’ve understood how the market could trade higher for a while — as folks’ belief in the power of massive fiscal stimulus to contain our economic problems, combined with the even more massive monetary stimulus, could lead them to conclude that perhaps the worst has been seen.
The third factor that (perversely) helps some people maintain a bullish outlook: the recession is now a year old. The old saw is that by the time the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) has decided that we’ve been in recession, it’s almost over. That’s because in the past, for the most part, recessions have been more of the 12-18 month variety. Thus, by the time NBER has identified them, combined with the market’s tendency to discount events six months to a year down the road, investors associate NBER’s proclamations with market lows.
However, most of the recessions in this country over the past 50 years were caused by the Fed raising interest rates to battle inflation. The last two recessions, though, were created not by Fed tightening but as a consequence of its reckless easy-money policies, followed by the exhaustion of those two bubbles. Thus, this is not a recession that can be easily stopped by the Fed, simply by its relaxing of monetary policy, as what might have occurred in the old days. (Of course, they didn’t just relax policy — they moved the monetary equivalent of heaven and earth.)
And, as I have been noting for a few years now: When the housing bubble burst, in combination with the unwind of the associated epic credit binge, it was going to lead to extreme carnage on the downside, as consumers and financial institutions would both be impaired. Which is where we are today.
A Rally with an Expiration Date
Now the Fed has done what it’s done, and will promise more. I’m sure the new administration will create equally gargantuan stimulus programs. But in my opinion, we’re still going to have a brutal recession, and it will be longer and deeper than most people believe. I expect that the rally, now under way in fits and starts, will not last all that long into 2009, and that it will set up a rather attractive shortselling opportunity. So, those who are overexposed to equities might want to think about using the strength to lighten up, if my thought process makes sense to you.
My working hypothesis, although just a guess at this point, is that sometime around the coronation of Obama might be as good a juncture as any for the market to flip over, if it actually does rally into the third week of January. Of course, that guesswork will be subject to change.
J
You can’t have inflation with falling home prices.
Sure you can, Tony.
inflation is the depreciation of the currency. That’s what the Fed is up to.
If you live in NYC your a fucking idiot plain and simple. That fucking blind sheik up there should be penned up in the alligator pit.
Is our currency being depreciated? My dollar buys a hell of a lot larger house and TV today than it did last year.
…we will become like Argentina. Fun times.
I’ve been told the women of Argentina are exceptionally beautiful, so sign me up.
just because the rest of the world is on the gold standard or backs their shit up with gold doesnt mean the states do or has to do ..we like paper its easier to make and we can make it worth whatever we want ..after christmas im long DZZ ..and rebuying my gold coin collection @350 per coin pack it and ship it
Tony
Stop being a freaking idiot. The Fed is doing what it can to debauch the currency as a result of the real estate crisis.
Goldilocks & mustard seeds.
Good Times
beautiful and very giving
beautiful and very giving
Okay then, Argentina it is.
….MacGruber!
J
Not being an idiot. I know what the the Fed is attempting but their strategies aren’t working. Banks aren’t lending, excess reserves have gone parabolic. Why would a bank lend in this environment?
LOL
Well they are lending actually Tony. It’s also a question of time too. The fed embarked on this agressive trip only a few months ago.
Excess reserves are actually very high now and will go much higher.
But go ahead. Leave the money under the bed if you want and then tell me what it will be worth in 5 years time.
snowballs in Iraq.
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v331/windsey6/santa.gif
j, I really don’t care what the fed or paulson does. I also don’t care what obama does. Nobody is going to borrow and go into more debt. That horse is dead. Devaluing the dollar is not very smart. China will get what we owe them by buying our hard assets on the cheap. Maybe they will buy the fed reserve building and charge benny rent. I’m sticking with my BEAR position for the next several years and I’m sleeping very well. In fact, I haven’t gotten up before 10:30 am since last Thursday and I’m going to keep to that schedule. S&P may hit 950 and I just don’t care. The mountain of bullshit it is built on is failing. zero interest rates and buying worthless paper from bankrupt banks is equal to runny diarrhea and stacking that on a pile of bullshit just doesn’t make a foundation for a NEW BULL(SHIT) market. The market and America are due for a major fall between now and 2015. NEW LOWS by 1/12/09.
Moment of clarity, Tony:
If the fed prints enough of it, then cash is the last place anyone will want to be. Your house isn’t worth more; your dollars are just worth less. Buy shit, now, or watch your money shrink so fast you’ll never afford anything.
Incredibly risky strategy, but it appears that’s what they’ve decided.
Ever wonder how we were going to pay back the trillions we owe China?
Just print dollars until a trillion of them are worth less than a GM truck and six pack of Bud.
Point that same lecture to our bearish pal, DD, Anton.
I’m not sure he gets that “worthless money” = increasingly priced assets.
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AAA – OHHH —HEY ,HEYYY OHHH — AA
ONE DAY THE SPIRIT BEAR WILL COME FOR YOU MY FRIEND
Actually, Jake, talking to myself as much as Tony. Much worse than where I thought we were going.
You’ve studied this more than I have; has any country ever saved its economy by busting its currency?
A look at countries who’ve done this suggests DD’s Mad Max social fallout, no?
Anton,
We’ve been busting our currency since 1913.
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Anton, the last major empire that busted it’s currency was Rome. But that couldn’t happen today due to our military superiority. Wait a minute, didn’t Rome in it’s time also have the greatest military also extended in costly foreign wars? Hmmmmmmmmmmmmm.
And if the US and our money isn’t a safe haven, what happens to the economies of those silly Euro countries with their monopoly money?
China can’t sell us melamine sandwiches on credit anymore and their economy is at least a generation from being anything close to self-sustaining… even with a plague that helps them out by offing 10% of their population (starvation will probably get 3%.) They have shit for resources, so they can’t save the world.
Russia is so fucked Bernie Madoff ran straighter books, but they will use their nat gas line into Europe for all kinds of nasty Stalinist/Putinist bullshit. Lots of resources, but nobody’s going for the “ruble standard.”
So we’re on the edge of this thing, with the rest of the world already pissed that they bought our bullshit swaps and every other hilariously booby trapped “financial instrument” and I wonder how we’re going to keep the rest of the retards at bay and in line with the desires and righteous and Godly path of the USA.
I hear New Zealand is lovely.
The gubner of NY gives a new meaning to “If you can make it there, you can make it ANYWHERE…”
It’s up to YOU, Fly and Bruce,
Fly… and… Bruuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuceeee!!
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NY is the ultimate shit hole.
no country in the history of mankind has been all of the following.
world military power
world economic power
having worlds reserve currency
all within a global coordinated monetary system.
think of ot in terms of one world p&l and balance sheet
ideally what should happen, what would make things have a chance of working, is the global depreciation of currencies
vs not one another in radical changes but vs global assets.
that is what the world right now is trying to accomplish.
DD,
The Roman military couldn’t take on everybody, especially well away from the city and continue to insulate the populace from their ever-growing list of conquered, resentful enemies. The roads Rome built to facilitate trade and help move their military more quickly to project power, ultimately made the city the center of the bulls eye for hordes of hungry, hopeless barbarians…
Uh-oh.
Chivas,
I get that, but just looking at how the Euro countries can’t even agree on what to serve for lunch at their policy meetings, it seems that a coordinated global asset revaluation becomes unlikely.
(I think they should serve Italian, btw. Would give the broken-economy Italians the illusion of being involved in the process. Besides, everybody likes pizza, right?)
Dinner time.
Where did Rodney get those $240,000 hotdogs, anyway?
Devildog –
Please call me. You are below minimum margin requirements again.
chivas, the “world” as an entity isn’t trying to do shit as the “world”. Are you just a fucking idiot? Just shut up and buy “world” stocks on the “world” stock market exchange. Fucking idiot.
Roger, check again. I’m UP $517K. Fuck off.
No that’s your CNBC Million Dollar Portfolio Challenge account, where you went all in on Ford last week. Your real account is low 5 figures, you fucking piker.
New lows by the end of the month……..uh, maybe next month?
devildog
when the worlds central banks coordinated rate cuts, that was the world acting as an entity you fucking retard. if it was not for your service to my country, i would wish for you all kinds of calamity. as it is, get some help, meds, therapy, or something. you fucking need it.