Luckily, I find myself with a large cash position (35%) and newly added longs (CHL, FXI and TS). However, much to my chagrin, I am going into a fucking short squeeze, like a piece of cheese through a grater, with 45% of my capital short the market.
I expect limited losses in my oil shorts, due to a timely XOM downgrade (UBS) this morning. But, my thoughts on oil may change dramatically following the announcement of inventory data, scheduled to be released later on this morning.
My other positions in SRS, EEV and REW will be clown raped.
My choices are simple: sell them and switch to longs and risk timing everything wrong. Or, hang tough on the shorts and utilize existing cash to add more longs.
Depending on the tone of the market, I may just take my lumps on SRS, EEV and REW and move on. Or, the more likely scenario, I will take the cash I have left and position it to make some coin going into today’s close and for the next few days.
One thing is clear: if the market holds today’s gains, we will likely rally for several days, on the back of yet another insane stimulus plan.
It is quite common to see bear market rallies occur in late January. Often times they can last until March. It will be tempting to sell off longs quickly and buy into an FAZ or SKF on the “cheap.” However, remember, C, BAC, WFC, USB and JPM can literally double from yesterday’s closing prices and still not be viewed as “overvalued” by the asset management crowd.
The possible downside for FAZ is in the high 20’s and high 90’s for SKF.
Bottom line: today is not a day to be stubborn. I will try my best to limit the damage and not wallow in the “woulda, coulda, shouldas.” I got caught short, like a midget in the deep end of a pool. Now I must rectify or try to avoid future damage and work to rebuild.
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the bailout news will be sold
Fed moves to help distressed homeowners- AP AT&T 4Q earnings fall 23.6 percent- AP Wells Fargo swings to 4Q loss- AP Boeing posts 4Q loss due to labor strike, charges- AP Oil rises on positive company earnings- AP ConocoPhillips reports $31.8B loss on charges- AP Bank stocks push Europe higher- AP AirTran posts much wider 4Q loss- AP NYU’s Roubini: “Nowhere to Hide” from Global Slowdown- Tech Ticker
these are the current headlines…….
all these stocks are higher?
what the fuckery is this?
Lets face it all the professors in Davos wanted socialism all along, so lets just go with the flow..
thought I heard surplus of 1 million bbls, sound right? Buying SKF when it gets sub $100
BTW, Barclays (BCS) was 2.75 four days ago, it is 6.35 right now……129% up….this shit is just out of hand.
yo damn im glad i traded agenst your jack ass and sold you short in srs and bought your fas that you sold me 2 days ago when are you gonna stop bitching about everything and stop fghting the tape trade the market you have not the one you wish you had
Fly:
Could you ask Vincenzo to create a box in the upper right corner of every page which shows The Fly’s YTD performance?
This would give comfort to us mere peasants.
Damn Fly you are reading my mind. I feel your pain and will have to cover some of my shorts, take my ass whipping and wait for the hype to subside. You are right about late Jan rallies, and Febs have been crap
I will wait for SKF to push down towards 100 then I am in like fucking donkey kong
I hold FAZ and SDS but also some FAS and longs – I will probably open green, but government again – reminds me of holding SKF when the first $750 bill plan was announced on CNBC.
“dude with commen [sic] sense ”
Your Mother sucks elephant balls.
Dude-
Beware of betting against the Fly- Many have tried and many have perished.
Zen:
Why bother?
What do my gains or losses do for you, other than give fuel/ammo for detractors/supporters?
However, on PPT, I will keep my top 10 positions listed at all times.
… and don’t forget the usual 2:15 Fed announcement to add to the volatility.
May be a good day for this daytrading fool to take it off and play golf in this 85 degree weather.
Welcome to AmeriKa!
who is making money you started braging to early in the year all i can do is laghf at you ass
“in general, a borrower must be at least 60 days delinquent to qualify for help, although the Fed has leeway to make some exceptions. A 2008 law that set up the $700 billion bailout fund instructed the Fed to take such foreclosure relief action.”
Great! help out the deadbeats and fuck the rest of us
“dude with commen [sic] sense Says:
who is making money you started braging [sic] to [sic] early in the year all i can do is laghf [sic] at you ass”
Boy are you a fucking illiterate moron. Who taught you English, a fucking garbage can?
I’m still up for the year. Shut your mouth, you stupid bastard.
Go learn English, then make comments.
This market likes to cheese gratered (sic) its participants
Rally does not hold without the participation of XOM
CVX is key. If CVX buckles, rally will unravel quickly.
Thus far, I am doing nothing.
OUT OF ORDER
Long CVX…short XOM…
Stop the insanity….
todays stock action is total fuckery, it is like a beautiful chocolate cake, looks great on the outside but little does anyone know there is a dead NYC sewer rat buried in it and smoothed over with icing…. future cake eaters beware.
CHL ripping.
If there is no BIG rally here, then the market is DOOMED!
oil slipping.
rally fading.
.Thus far, I am doing nothing.
Well, er , you’re actually ain’t doing nothing. You’re rightly abusing an incoherent moron. In my book that’s quit worthwhile.
laghf? Wtf? So American schools are worse than what I thought.
The textbook says we hold this rally. However, if we don’t, look out below.
J:
Are Australian schools much better?
Serious question.
….3 legged statue of liberace. Nuff said.
You stupid idiots, we are clearly at the bottom of the trading range, not the top!
Get your fucking head out of your ass!
Fly, hilarious question.
I was thinking New Zealand myself.
I can’t believe this shit – prudently run banks like BBT up 7% and the shit banks up more than double that.
I bought more ERY and and haven’t covered my WFC short yet.
It will take weeks of squabbling over how to value the shit the bad bank will take in before there’s any firmness to that proposal…
Inventory numbers to tell what the day holds.
IMO the financials have been benefiting from massive short covering after their pounding last week. The crowd is always late to the party as they jumped on the short side late last week at the bottom. Now they are in panic mode.
fly just watch summmer heights high on HBO and that will answer your question on australian schools…
hilarious show btw
Yea, they are fly.
They’re still lefty hangouts teaching all the latest fashionable leftie swill. However 40% of kids here go to private schools because the gov funds all private schools with generous grants including religious ones. So overall lower mid class parents can afford to send their kids away from the government crap.
There are literally 100’s of private schools here in my city.
However when we were in NYC we sent out kids to private schools and they were excellent in comparison but they cost an arm and a leg.
But even the government crap ain’t really that bad here too as nothing compares with the government schools in the US which are just shit boxes of hopelessness.
This rally has its foundation on moon pies.
I would like to see a group of CEOS make snow angels in the snow at Darvos.
Or a snowball fight.
Do something useful like that.
I don’t think there is any reason to get scared here FLY. Each successive rally has smaller legs to it.
Might be true jeff but the banks can hold to some of their gains seeing they are such a small part of the indexes now.
XOM melting down
kill CVX!!!
For the sake of all that is good and reasonable. Kill CVX!!
Fly – Do you have an initial downside target for the XOM short? or will you see how it reacts to oil numbers, earnings, etc?
I’m starting a CAT position, it’s down to the highs of yesterday and holding. Risk/reward is good. Near bottoms it touched in Oct and Nov.
TraderCaddy: Clearly there is not such place in Switzerland called “Darvos” !!!
If IBM doesn’t hold the downside will be decent.
Hey Fly, have I been blocked ?
Oh boy. They are pulling out all of the stops today.
Citigroup: Government of Singapore discloses 5.3% stake in 13G filing (4.12 +0.57)
What’s next, cutting interest rates to -.50%?
XOM is worth $60
fuck snow angels, I’d rather see a group of CEO’s gangbang Maria, with her screaming in pleasure “I’m being fucked by 12 billionaires…..o-god….it’s a dream cum true….please don’t stop….” as you know that to be the case…… might of already happened last night for all we know…..
Thanks.
‘Flaps takes it in the nuts with WFC cover.
R.I.P. you hairy bastards…
KHHAAANNNNNNNNNN!!!
KHAAAAAAAANNNNNNNNNNNNN!!
Continue to short APOL with impunity
At least ERY is green…
not touching FAZ, as tempting as it is.
If we go lower, oil stocks will lead the way.
New poster-
Is it you who called that trade last week, the short APOL/
That was a great call
Quick question. Kinda a noob but does anyone see a breakaway gap on the FAS daily? Just curious…
Gold Stocks saying financial risk decreasing?
why is LM not playing along with this days stupidity?
Cannon shot 🙁
You may be a midget in the deep end of the pool, but you have Michael Phelps water skills and state of the art “floaties”.
Artist-
They are losing assets. Miller their Messiah is shitting the bed
.Slowest global growth since WWII expected
MarketWatch
Don’t let the street see that, or they’ll buy the ranch.
All in all, a 100 point rally, for all the talk and hooplah, is equal to me pissing in the wind and having it spray on Tim Knight’s electric car.
Nothing to see here. Business as usual.
Guys,
If the rally fails short GOOG with a stop at 343. Could be good for 10 points
I still like TS, FXI and CHL here.
XOM, without a doubt, is a motherless whore.
.Blog Bailout? Says:
Cannon shot
What this?
http://slopeofhope.com/2009/01/28/will_we_get_another_919.htm
I’ve never felt comfortable actually deleting any old posts, since I believe my writing should stand on its own, but the government has offered to buy up these “toxic posts” and bundle them together into one large Bad Blog. Of course, Slope isn’t too severely affected, but some blogs are. The Fly’s blog alone has been weighing on the U.S. dollar for months, and the rampant misspellings over in Lindzon-land were part of the chaos behind this autumn’s plunge in energy prices.
He’s not good with humor. If fact it’s very boring blog and devoid of any thinking much past a fucking line on a chart telling him to buy the stock. Plus tim is a very very gay name.
yes, but the shitty banks are impressively up today, Fly.
The market is walking around like some Lifetime movie anorexic girl that just ate a Thanksgiving feast. It’ll take some time to digest but it’ll get back to normal weight.
J:
He must have failed creative writing in college. Clearly, he is devoid of personality that is interesting to anyone with an IQ, north of 90.
Hence, his readership is filled with low end losers, who cling onto his every word.
So I am told.
J
I will not touch banks, long or short.
My focus is on oil.
Viz.
lol
This BS buying pressure will pass once all the idiots have bought in.
The Fuckery, gig today at noon at the Shamwow Bar and Grill. free beer and lap dances for the first 50 thru the door.
SHAMWOW Bailout—
Watch the Gov’t suck up all the bad stuff into a towel.
btw, today’s picture is tight.
bulls are winning the battle for CVX. If it runs, the market will pop.
Drudge is reporting 335 million in bill for STD prevention.
Ha! Ha! and they said that the bill was free of pork. What a fucking joke
Dept of Energy reports that crude oil inventories had a build of 6218K (consensus is a build of 2900K); gasoline inventories had a draw of 121K (consensus is a build of 2000K); distillate inventories had a draw of 1005K (consensus is a draw of 1000K).
Tmoe…yes, that was me. Thanks
6 miilion crude build twice what was expected
and there’s $6 million going to Accorn, moe. I honestly can’t figure how people let these arseholes get away with this shit.
There goes big oil.
If the Fed cuts another 50 basis points this afternoon, does that mean they’ll actually pay us if we borrow money??
Regarding XOM…do not forget to factor in that XOM is considered a safe haven and has enjoyed safe haven benefits…i.e. an inflated share price relative to peers, the underlying commodity. It will correct…but probably not as much as you would think. $60 is too much….$70 is more like it.
No, Cramer, you idiot. Srop using the term, “Bad Bank”. It is slightly impaired maybe some iffy paper banks.
Jake-
Your word of the day (Gizzen) is also in the Urban Dictionary.
Gizzen Gar 1 up, 1 down
What a person says after chugging an energy drink.
Translation: HOLY CRAP I AM SO HYPER.
(Tom chugs a monster)
GIZZEN GARRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR!!!!
Just sold 1000 C, purchased mid day yesterday.
Long GE and BOOM, and cash.
anyone else see a breakaway gap on fas?
Anon, why would a billionaire want to fuck a pig?
Uh, they are billionaires, if they don’t have class they do have choice.
MTW earnings today afterhours, sure to disappoint
from ft
Shanghai’s performance comes in spite of a range of discouraging global data in the run-up to the New Year festivities, and an emerging consensus that China will be lucky to achieve 5 per cent growth this year, never mind the magical 8 per cent. So what lies behind it? One theory is that China is relatively immune to renewed fears over the health of western banks – Citi is now worth less than one-ninth of ICBC – and deflationary busts in the eurozone. Investors can, therefore, start pricing in a rebound spurred by a big fiscal and monetary stimulus, negative real rates and the competitive renminbi.
Nice idea, but it ignores the valuation gulf between Shanghai’s A-shares and the equivalent H-shares listed in more liberal Hong Kong. The HK discount, normally about a third, has widened to almost a half in recent weeks. Gaps cannot be arbitraged away as the Chinese are, in effect, barred from buying H-shares while foreigners are allowed only tiny slivers of A-shares. Their quotas amount to less than 2 per cent of China’s market capitalisation.
Trading volumes might suggest respectable levels of activity – the value of equities churned on Shanghai and Shenzhen last year was about the same as that on the Deutsche Börse – but the market remains a poor mechanism for valuing companies and allocating capital. At least two-thirds of listed companies’ shares are locked up and not exchange-tradeable. And Beijing continues to view the index as an economic indicator, like gross domestic product or inflation, with all the ad hoc intervention it implies.
Efficient markets rely on the uncorrupted flow of information and unfettered debate on market risks – neither was a feature of Shanghai’s boom (up 100 per cent in 2007) and bust (down 65 per cent in 08). The rally should be treated with caution
Look at this piece of shit STT UP 33%.
Short.