The Lox – Blood Pressure

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I’m glad to see this Monday fuckfest over with. I had to deal with all sorts of misfits, fucking up my mojo, attempting to “put in another bottom.”

You stupid fucking bastards.

Nothing worked today, unless you were short crude. Big strength in GS and MS, while death knocked at BAC‘s door. Commercial Re stocks were getting buried this morning, only to forge ahead with, yet another, late date rally, effectively fucking my SRS position.

Basically, everyone loses on days like today.

All of you reflation fuckers got punched in the nuts, with TBT knifing lower. And, amazingly, XOM finished up, while oil closed at the lows. There is some real fishy, fishy business going on; I don’t like it one bit.

The Government is getting all protectionist and shit, looking to raise taxes, in egregious Smoot Hawley fashion. And, at the same time, there are many of you who believe the current economic decline is a standard run of the mill, nothing to see here, downturn.

Good day to you, Sir. Indeud.

At the end of the day, I am right and you are wrong. Just fess up to the fact that you are not better than me, not now, not ever. The market was tossed into the back of a Caddy, then shot 9 times, all the while you were declaring “buy the dips.”

Sure, the market may bounce, here or there, or even everywhere. But, when all matters are considered, “The Fly” games this fucking market like a pimp in a town full of unrepresented whores.

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Some of you pikers like this volatility. Personally, I’d like it to go away. It’s too much, with the crazy back and forth gyrations of the market. I want to lead a normal life, not one of a degenerate OTB guy gawking at the races.

This is fucking bullshit.

Part of me wants to just go to cash and spend the rest of my days throwing jumping jacks at people, from the back of a stretch limo. On the other hand, I’ve got work to do.

It’s a rather stupid business, this money management is. A lot of my fellow colleagues pride themselves on “proper asset allocation models” and “sophisticated estate planning.” When in reality, they’re just fee mongering money losers. They put these elaborate plans together, collect their egregious fees, from variable annuities and life insurance policies, then proceed to lose their clients money, hand over fist.

It’s a fucking joke.

What’s even funnier are the little bloggers out there, who have zero industry experience, trying to tell you (the unwashed) how fucked the business is. Hell, anyone can say that; but do they really know?

Well, I can tell you, with direct knowledge of certain on goings at certain brokerage houses, business looks grim. All of the fee based models have been destroyed, over the past 18 months. The level of disaster, worldwide, cannot be summarized in a bullshit blog post.

As far as wealth is concerned, about 40% of it, worldwide, has been disintegrated.

Those are losses you do not walk away from.

Unfortunately, it will take another 10-15 years before Wall Street recovers from this mess.

As for today’s tape:

The market looks like it wants to rally. Tech is strong, as are select retailers. However, for the most part, the market is one big fuckfest, where everyone gets it.

My favorite short squeeze play is MT. And, my favorite longs are CHL/FXI.

On the short side, I like MAC, SLG, ESS and FRT. If you are short KIM, you may want to cover and wait for a bounce to reshort.

Bottom line: I would not press shorts here, nor would I go “all in” long. Take a measured approach and try not to get so fucking excited about every tick.

There are lots of things scrambling through my big brain this morning, such as banks, reits, oils and Korea.

Despite numerous capital raises, most banks have insufficient tier one capital levels. Which means, of course, they will have to raise new money. I have a funny feeling the government will allow corporations repatriate earnings held abroad.

If you recall, they allowed U.S. corporations to do this, back in 2004-05. As a result, more than $300 bill came flooding back. Some estimates say there is more than $1 trillion in earnings being held in foreign banks abroad, mainly by IT and healthcare companies.

One company that has busloads of cash aboard and needs it badly is GE. With GE getting “homo hammered” on a daily basis here, do not be surprised to see “The Big O,” include repatriation incentives in his stimulus bill.

Korean banks are in dire straights. Look for excessive weakness in SHG and WF. Both companies are devoid of the ever elusive tier one capital.

Speaking of which: so are most of our reits. These assholes have billions upon billions in debt due and no—fucking—chance of refinancing it, at least cheaply. For example: SPG has more than $3 billion due in 2009-2010.

How in the world will they be able to deal with that? Perhaps a little government intervention?

Bottom line: I have a fucking list running down the hallway, littered with companies with negative cash per share/price ratios. Any company with more debt than cash is subject to unannounced bear raids.

Here are a few names, with tenuous balance sheet issues, worth noting:

AIV, SLG, RWT, MFW, PHH, WF, SHG, BLX, CMA, MAC, CYH, TK, PKY, ATLS, PPS, UDR, SSS, SPG and CHK.

Bottom line: Despite the prospect of a government sponsored “bad bank” (how ridiculous does that sound?) I still think the market is fucked. Naturally, beware of the short squeezes and all that other egregious stuff. However, at the end of the day, the core fundamentals shows no signs of improvement and, as a point in fact, look rather dreadful from my perspective.

NOTE: SHG is raising money today, at a 25% discount to market.

Asian Homo Hammer Wire.

Asian Homo Hammer Music:

Feel free to dance, as if you just won the super bowl, near your computer, while watching the “Asian Homo Hammer Wire.”

All of the negative news is sort of bewildering to me, partly because the restaurants I frequent are still packed and my neighbors are still dicks. I understand my small pocket of excess is not a good indicator for the country. I remember visiting that shithole called Pennsylvania, during the summer, and being stunned by its strapped look and feel. People are struggling like a motherfucker out there, living out their pathetic days with extreme modesty—old used cars, rusted BBQ grills and shit.

Here’s a fact: if it was not for government intervention, all of our banks would be gone. Poof!

If all of our banks were bankrupt, well then, our economy would be nonexistent. People would be eating each other in the streets of Manhattan, like wolves. If our economy was nonexistent, I do not believe the political system could retain power. No—fucking—way.

America is a different place, with different people, than back in the old Great Depression days. Back then, people were accustomed to grinding it out, through wars, starvation and staggering unemployment, without welfare. They knew what personal responsibility meant, since a good part of our population was made up of hungry immigrants. Today, the majority of our populace is made up of hamburger eating, teevee watching fat idiots.

If really, really tough times hit America, GD bad, the people would not stand for it. In my spoiled rotten neighborhood, instead of taking up arms like in the old days, these fuckers would bitch, whine, and sue until my local politicians were removed.

However, in poor cities(Detroit, D.C, etc), a different story would play out.

Those fuckers would burn down every building, minus the liquor stores.

Deep down, I keep thinking “somehow, we’ll make it out of this mess.” There have been many periods in American history when the economic system was tested or nearly disintegrated. However, this catastrophe seems to be more severe than all the others, including the Great Depression.

Back then, the country was in the midst of colossal technological advancement, from electricity to cars to airplanes. What do we have now, dumbass iPods or bullshit smart phones?

So where are we going with this bullshit? How can we allow the current structure to exist, post meltdown?

The corruption inside the government, interlinked with big business/foreign financiers, is so pervasive and blatant, I seriously doubt that things can ever be the same. These motherfuckers not only killed capitalism, they stifled America’s brand of business, worldwide. Who in their right mind will listen to our advice anymore? How can we tell the next up and coming nation to use our mold?

It is broken.

So now we have President Obama. He talks a big game; but thus far, he is just giving us more of the same. Which means one thing: they (our government) have no fucking idea how to arrest the decline. The answer to our problems cannot be buying the toxic assets from the banks, at a 200% premium no less. You have to be fucking kidding me. We are not talking 1 trill either. The real exposure is more than 3 trillion dollars.

Some of you conspiracy theorists out there think the government is doing this on purpose, in order to grab control of everything. I tend to think they are all incompetent, viagra popping drunkards, who have overplayed their hands and are about to be called out.

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UPDATE: “These people are idiots.”

UPDATE II: Going for the trifecta with this one.

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His last minutes of the trading day, caught on tape.

As for the market:

Gold has become a safe haven and the TBT trade continues to look good. Personally, instead of buying today’s dip, I opted to err on the side that Obama has no fucking idea what he is doing, with regards to a “bad bank plan,” via small FAZ, ERY buys.

Also, I stopped out of my TS position. I kept MT, FXI, CHL and BUCY, just in case we rally Monday. However, for the most part, I go into this weekend, decidedly negative on the markets.

Quick update on 2009’s “Four Reverse Horseman of Certain Death”-

ESS, MAC, FRT and SLG look terrible. And, don’t forget the 5th reverse horseman, KIM. That bitch is getting the stuffing kicked out of her.