Ever since the financial meltdown befell us in 2007, the blogosphere has been brimming with “DEATH MERCHANT” and/or bearshitter blogs, who find great pleasure in predicting your death, by way of armed revolts or pestilence. Often times I fall into that camp, if only to bank a little coin. By no means is “The Fly” a card carrying member of the “idiot triangle,” who are infected by treatable hypomanic disorders, if only they bothered taking large doses of prescribed psychotropics.
I could care less about the injustices taking place or how the shadow banking system is giving your grandparents cancer and your favorite uncle aids. I declare, with extreme zeal, the financial blogosphere, for the most part, is entirely useless—a fucking wasteland of asshole rumor milling and pompous egocentric misfits.
Some might say, “hey Fly, you are the biggest asshole of them all, with an ego the size of IC 1101.” To them, I retort, “incorrect Good Sir, I am humble enough to know my opinions are malleable and my market biases mirror shape-changers, as opposed to the ideologues who double as fucking doomsday gargoyles, made from shit and stone.”
Instead of discussing the numerous events that are deemed to be irrelevant, by those with a stable cognitive state and without acute identity crises, why not throw out some fucking stock ideas? Is that too fucking hard to do? I mean, asshole, let’s stop pretending to be privy to top secret NSA documents, as if this was the internet version of cloak and dagger: let’s bank-some-coin. At the end of the day, what the fuck are we talking about here? What is your point?
My cartel is homed in on seeing bank accounts appreciate in value, regardless of the environment or roadblocks that get it the way of our revenue generating think-tanks.
If the market continues to dip, I will buy CIEN, STAR, SPIL, AMKR and ERX, aside from my current positions. In addition, I will be trimming back on micro-cap tombstones, in exchange for larger cap names, like SYT or maybe a little MON—an Uncle Jake favorite.
In short, I am not so convinced the Fed’s actions are not working, with regards to reflation. As a matter of fact, there are signs of reflation everywhere. If you weren’t so wrapped up with the idea that the fucking planet was about to get sucked into a a giant Jack-in-the-box, maybe you would be in a position to profit from the market whims.
Instead, you find yourself conquered by way of a $35 cost basis on FAZ.
Asshat.
Caveat: Should we break down, I will have a large list of stocks to bet against too.
No death spiral but a pullback to 750-800 is not out of the question. Bottom line this is a gray area in my opinion where cash is king. Buy good companies that will outperform when you see pullbacks in them. Also be long commodities. Me myself I will not give advice to Fly and anyone who does other than chivas is a kind yet misinformed individual. When you do something for a living it kind of means you are good at it or you would not be making a “living” and thus do not need advice from people who don’t. Anyway enough blowing smoke up Fly’s rosie ass, let me talk for a minute about the Swine. This shit is resurfacing and we have seen our first legitimate American death from it. This is horribly concerning and I expect chaos to ensue sending a chilling horror over the markets. NYC could be set on a collision course with the sun in a dynamite filled car. But just in case it doesn’t I will be buying some dips. Off to drink more Bordeaux, stay thirsty my friends.
If by reflation trade you mean assholez speculating in the breadstuffs of America, right you are. They shall all die, with the exception of GS, which has juice with the PTB.
By the way CHECK THIS SHIT OUT FOR A LAUGH!!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8pyW6w5B7Aw
An absolute horror!!!
ROFL.
Gapping, I see your video and raise you:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yTRG-wAummM
Much of the blogosphere may be doom and gloom, but the Jacksonians are capering with glee this day… for we are now swimming in the shadow of the largest mitherflickin’ shark in the sea.
___________
Jake is an effective link whore.
^n225 down 2.5% on the open. are they becoming a leading indicator again?
http://www.chartoftheday.com/20090515.htm
POPEYES…should changes its name to Blackeyes.. MSG soaked chicken for the masses RE JAKE..I fall for that fuckin link trick at least 3 times a week..way to go Jake, that’s smart self promotion
damn Fly.. I think i’ve seen K.O.N.Y over 30 times, know every line..gotta love it. That popeyes thing was funny as hell.
“what’s in the cup?”
“Rootbeer..”
I dont get it…
Wages consist the biggest part of CPI…yet with unemployment going up the roof, I hardly see wages going up.
In fact, even the most bullish economist out there dont see a full recovery (economy humming at 100%) for years.
I agree that there will be inflation down the road, but I dont see it for a very long time.
Perhaps you guys can inform me why you think inflation will be picking up shortly? In the 70’s there was the oil embargo and massive unionization that drove wages up.
I see your video and raise you:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4ZJuglqChhk
Europe, as a whole, is beginning to resemble our banking system – zombified. As a result, the Asians are running out of places to sell their gadgets.
WSJ -http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124236774127723161.html?mg=com-wsj
BERLIN — The euro-zone economy suffered its sharpest slump on record in the first quarter of 2009, underlining the severity of Europe’s recession.Gross domestic product in the 16-nation euro currency area fell by 2.5% in the period from January to March, compared with the fourth quarter of 2008. That means Europe’s economic heartland was contracting at an annualized rate of nearly 10% in the first quarter.
Germany, Europe’s biggest economy, had an even bigger quarterly fall, its worst since 1970 — contracting by 3.8%, or an annualized minus 14.4%.
Fly, you had a plan. Go long like a mofo into May and then go to cash. What happened? Somehow you strayed into penny stock hell and now are under in a number of positions. Don’t hate the rest of us who followed your initial advice. We’re not going into any death spiral but we will test the 50SMA on the S&P. Raise some cash, and wait until you get better prices. Listen to your own homies, CA, Rajin, Alpha, who are either mostly cash or net short.
Mike:
Wages form no part of CPI. They are a component of CPI.
You don’t require wages hikes or wage pressures to see inflation.
Update: Latha math dhut, mithahflickas.
____________
This is 1999:
The nation’s benchmark stock index may surge as much as 20 percent over the next week as overseas investors purchase as much as $3 billion of Indian shares within a month, said Singapore-based Samir Arora, who oversees Helios Capital Management Pte, an India focused hedge fund.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aD2RlYd6IZTI&refer=home
Roark:
the places that will get hit the most are:
1. Exporters that aren’t able to turn their economies around
2. Countries that are basically inflexible in their response.
Japan and Germany fall into that camp, although at this stage China doesn’t as it’s flexibility has yet to be seen in terms of it being able to move to more internal consumption.
The EU is basically fucked as they are inflexible. Furthermore the region that actually needs a substantial currency devaluation in order to mitigate for its inflexibility is the EU. However the stupid frog shithead running ECB policy doesn’t get it.
The US will be seen soon as one of the better survivors.
Asia down 2-3%, Bulls getting hit by a 4×4 to the head!
Fly: I will re-raise you and you sir have been check mated!!!!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ORztFURoec0
Best fucking ordering scene of all time.
wow, BOOMER wins hands down with that unforgettable raise. Although it is of the ‘non-ordering’ variety.
that is funny, Gapping.
Are you guys FUCKIN BLIND?!?
Dump yer shithouse penny plays and buy a chicken shack..<—-Nuthin but MONEY, BABY!!!
I think I’ll go play in traffic….
308 is right. Here’s an ordering video for you:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=itfLRjRQycY
deTocqueville likes the opportunistic American spirit in The Fly. A paradox of arrogance and humility he possesses. He knows the markets move in waves; though he does not count them, he seems to feel them.
Bring on the surf boards and let us enjoy the ebbs and flows of mother market.
I see that and raise you Bubba Rubb:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PitGkp1ncXE
so the fly is in the buy the dip mode and will be getting worked. henceforth he does mention some possible shorts he has in mind. lets see what he does tomorrow….
Advise of the financial sort is always appreciated from josh.
i do some traders that are going to try and buy this dip gap down we’re going to get. i just dont see it. my ST target is around 855. I dont really expect to change my position until 780-795ish
josh,
no one gives a fuck.
last time i checked this was a blog based on trading stocks so perhaps you should visit a gay porn site to suit your own needs.
josh,
i apologize for not being more pacific(sic). i meant to say, no one gives a fuck about your dumb ass ‘gameplan.’
Josh,
Ron has a point. No one really gives a shit.
Furthermore, I’d be a little more careful with your grammar and writing skills. If there’s one thing that causes Fly to go hog-wild it’s bad writing and you’re getting yourself very close to a permanent ban with that swill you just wrote. Smarten up, Josh.
Josh, please shut the fuck up. You are the shittiest trader on this blog.
Josh,
All I ask is that you write in English.
Thanks,
Jake.
______
Correction
Mike:
Wages form no part of CPI. They are a component of CPI.
Should Read:
They AREN”T a component of CPI.
As much as I have tried to look for a positive outlook in Americas economic future, I can’t find anything to hold on to sustainably. The Obama, Stress Test, phony pop in the financials was nice, but it’s over.
Sorry Mister Fly, we’re going to follow the Japanese … prepare for the lost decade. We have spent ourselves into a gawd-damn oblivion. We’re Fucked, and that includes the stock market.
🙁
BTW, So Cal just had a quake.
Before I head off, I meant to say:
… as opposed to the ideologues who double as fucking doomsday gargoyles, made from shit and stone.”
That was some pretty good stuff.
Take note eageryoung Fly-o-philes — metaphor and alliteration!
________
Donny:
Seriously, don;t you think that sort of view has been pretty much baked into the price now?
I will prepare for no such thing. “The Fly’s” business is at a 52 week high.
And Donny the US has already experienced the lost decade which started with the tech crash.
I’ll raise all of you.
HOLY SHIT
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j4FNGsNY3nI
mrkcbill-
will that video be played in a decade or two on oprah? “live from prison: my road from baby preacher to KKK grand wizard to death row.”
^^^^^^^^
We have a winner.
______
Wherever oil goes, so does the market.
the shittiest trader doesn’t bankcoin so i am questioning your intelligence…. i for one shall show my wraith tomorrow
BTW it is very funny how when the market goes in the direction they criticize you for being dumb. Then when the market goes against them and for you, you are now also the idiot. I wonder if I will be considered the idiot if and when the market goes sub 700 and 600. Better hope they aren’t still bullish then. I know I will be very close to bullish sub 600 somewhere around most likely 550
Ok, I concede. Nothing to do with chicken, but it’ll preach.
your wraith gave me hemorrhoids.
GOING ALL IN ON THIS VID
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gm_n76Dsl0c&feature=related
worry not young josh. you are perpetually the idiot.
peanut butter jelly, peanut butter jelly, on and on…
I am curious how the credit card situation will pan out over the next 12 months. The government and its lame ass stress test have concluded around 82 billion in credit card losses by 2010 as written in the New York Times.
I seriously laugh at that bullshit number and can easily see the defaults triple that number.
Any 4th grader can add and multiply. Lets review here;
A round figure of last years tax returns in america was around 183 million people that filed (of the 350 million plus citizens). Now, lets assume in a total low ball estimate that only half of these people that filed even have credit cards = 93,000,000 people. Lets take half of those and put them in the good pile (people that will never default), and lets put the other half in the “on shaky ground” pile. This is 46,500,000 people that are using the crap out of their credit cards making minimum payments. Lets take half of these people, 23,250,000 and put them in the maxed out and seriously in trouble now, or soon will be pile. These 23,250,000 can easily have 5,000 to 25,000 in credit card debt each. Lets even cut that in half again and get down to the nitty gritty of the people who will totally default and stop paying alltogether but have maxed their card(s) to the hilt by living on them for the last 12 months and have a total of say 15,000.00 balance (this is low ball) this is 11,625,000 people walking away from 15,000 in debt, this alone equals $174,375,000,000.00 in losses.
And the government estimated 82 billion on their “worst case” test?
Bullshit.
Artist:
Banks provisioning isn’t as simple as you suggest. There has been provisioning going on in the banks accounts all through 08 and 1/2st quarter. Banks just don’t wait for accounts to go into default before they provision, they also make probability estimates and include that in the accounts.
It’s not as easy as you suggest.
ELX rejects BRMC bid as “grossly inadequate.”
And, the semis have bottomed
http://www.eetimes.com/news/semi/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=217500353
Night.
MAYBE, i do wanna be a french fry
ROFLCOPTER!!1
Singapore Exports Decline as Electronics Shipments Extend Slump
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a.gXfmRenktQ
Indian Stock exchange going crazy… halted and finally closed for the day as buying frenzy hit the roof. ICICI was up 20%.
Wow ARV. I wonder what kind of short interest they have in the Indian market?
India up 20% http://tinyurl.com/pqmx4r
Fucking wild eyed indians are giving the bears a day to remember up 15 percent. WTF
Congress 1’s election win seems to be a positive over there 🙂
The party also won without the help of the religious parties which gives Congress 1 a strong mandate to govern without having to bow to minor parties.
New Mish article
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/05/if-youre-not-petrified-of-obama-youre.html
OEW Weekend Report:
“Currently we are following two potential short term scenarios, one posted on the SPX charts and the other on the DOW charts. Both suggest higher prices ahead for this uptrend, yet each presents a different view on how it could unfold. The counts were switched today for this report. The DOW count suggests that Major wave A of Primary B just concluded and a declining Major wave B is now underway. When it concludes Major wave C should carry the market to the upper target near SPX 1122. The SPX count suggests that waves Major A and Major B concluded at 833 and 780 respectively near the end of March. From that low we are counting an impulsing Major wave C with wave 1 at 876, wave 2 at 827, wave 3 at 930 and wave 4 bottoming now at 879. This count, of course, requires that wave 4 does not drop below wave 1 (876), unless a very rare expanding diagonal unfolds.”
The SPX count suggests that waves Major A and Major B concluded at 833 and 780 respectively near the end of March.
Gotta love a system that is still hedging on describing what happened 2 months ago.
OEW Short Term Outlook:
“Support remains at SPX 848 and then 789, with resistance at 912 and then 935. Short term momentum was slightly overbought at thursdays high, and is now displaying a positive RSI divergence on many timeframes. Also, the daily RSI is now the most oversold it has been during the entire uptrend, and the weekly RSI has pulled back from overbought levels. There are three fibonacci clusters that are identifiable using the current SPX count. The first is between SPX 937-946, the second between SPX 975-982, and the third between SPX 1034-1049. These levels are obtained by applying 0.618 and 1.0 fibonacci relationships between each of the waves.”
If we drop below 876 then the SPX count will be tossed in favor of the Dow count and the downtrend could continue on to 850 or 790 before turning back up ….
Not hedging … Tony has been basing the count on the SPX and many think he should be utilizing the Dow … he has agreed to divert to the Dow count if 876 is broken as his wave count based on such would no longer be valid …. that said, I wouldn’t be surprised if 876 holds and he turns out to be correct as he has many times before. We shall know shortly and as I write this futes has improved from earlier and the market could end up rallying on the India news and bears will be skewered again….