Zombie Rally

We got ourselves a bunch of dead corpses bouncing around here, eating the brains of unprotected short sellers. Just this morning it looked like the market was about to rollover, then BAM,the zombie bank shuffle kicked in. Gains in the banks are being led by C, BCS and COF. Le Creme of the crop. The captains of industry.

Back in the real world, crude is down again. However, oil stocks are higher. At this stage, I have no confidence in equities, long or short. If I wanted to put my bear trade back on oil, I’d go the SCO rout, instead of betting against oil stocks. The commodity markets are less manipulated than the equity markets, if you can believe that.

I still like my TLT and yes I am still long both SRS and FAZ, however, in small quantity.

Gold stocks look good here, particularly GOLD and RGLD. Even though the dollar has been relatively strong, gold has been hanging in there. Should the dollar weaken, I am sure gold/silver will spike to new highs.

Finally, cre names are weak, led by losses in UDR, WRI and SPG. But, considering yesterday’s gorilla raping of the shorts, I’d hold off on any new cre shorts or SRS purchases. I’m at a weird place now, where I have loads of cash to invest, but lack the motivation to allocate it, since I am wary of government fuckery.

NOTE: It’s true what Chart Addict says: iBankCoin raised some money through a Vulture Venture Capital group. Funds will be used to heighten the level of fuckery that I am on and expand it to all parts of the globe.

A great man once said “I want an armageddon asap!” This thought and sentiment is exactly how I feel, truth be told. Just bring it on already. Fuck all of the foreplay. Let’s see tanks roll over protesting hippies in D.C. and U.S aircraft carriers sink shrimping boats off the coast of China.

I am greedy. I want it all.

I want real fiat currency to be worth less than the monopoly variety. And, I want to see most stocks go to zero, INCLUDING all of the inverse etf’s.

RIM SHOT!

Aside from all that, Japanese business sentiment is so bad, they might as well bring back the samurai and attack China on horseback, and shit.

Oh, and Obama said GM should go bankrupt. SHHHHHhhhh, don’t fucking tell anyone. It might cause a stir.

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So goes the phrase of my dearly beloved late Grandfather: “you’re all schmucks, the whole lot of you.”

Bewildered you are, sitting there in the “unluxury” of your plastic chair, shocked by the late day chicanery. Give up the business of managing other people’s money and leave that burden on the shoulders of great investors, such as Senor Tropicana.

Frankly, as opposed to being “unfrank,” your hedge fund deserves 100% redemptions. God willing, blessed by the stone of Jupiter, all of your clients will leave you and spend the proceeds at the track.

At the end of the first quarter of 2009, “The Fly” is ahead to the tune of 25%, with a 90% cash position. He has small cocked positions in FAZ and SRS, with a little TLT flavour [sic]. Going into tomorrow, I might buy more SRS or I might buy UYM. Tune in to find out, liver lips.

In closing, you are a bad investor because you guess. I am better because I know.

Good Day.

So they are going to water down mark to market accounting on Thursday. At the same time, they (insidious dark forces) are funneling tax payer dollars through AIG into the vacation home vaults of the executives at GS. It’s a tough time to be in the business of shorting stocks, while these forces are in the sandbox.

Yesterday’s sell off has been erased by today’s reasonless spike. This is the type of market that people bungee jump off bridges for, sans the bungee rope.

I sold out of my SCO position, which was initiated yesterday at $31.10, around $33. Although I think oil goes lower, I can’t stay short crude, while the market is spiking. I am not selling FAZ, SRS or TLT, mainly due to the positions being tiny. And, it’s worth noting, I am still in a 90%+ cash position.

It’s a meat grinder out there people. Put your fucking sausage costumes on and get on the conveyor belt. While you are busy doing that, “The Fly” will wait in the tall grass for his opportunity to strike a deadly blow.

Bill Miller from LM is down 13.5% year to date. Aside from Bill, there are a lot of dumb men, who manage billions of dollars, down double digits for 2009. The trapped rats who manage billions will try to juice the market today, in order to avoid massive redemptions. However, whether you are up 15% or down 15%, money is being withdrawn from hedge funds, as investors say “fuck this shit,” take their ball and go home.

Sure, we can have a little fun, gunning bear market rallies, making believe nothing is amiss. But we’d just be lying to ourselves.

None of the steel or aluminum makers will make money in 2009, due to depressed metal prices. You already know about cranes and oil rigs. In short, there is not much to bet on, with any real confidence. Everything is a fucking trade—nothing matters. Trade your dog you fucking animals.

With my money, thus far, I’ve done nothing. I am mostly cash, with positions in FAZ, SRS, TLT and SCO. Most likely, I will allocate more cash, within an hour or so. Once again, I have meetings to attend and will be leaving early today.

It’s not fun talking shit about bad banks— anymore. It’s all sort of old hat to me. Everyone is doing it and it makes for boring blog. So, in an effort to spice things up a little, I found a few fresh names that can go down the rat hole, with very unsportsmanlike conduct.

Name of the company is: Manitowoc, ticker MTW, an old Cramer fav.

They make cranes and they are done. How’s that for in depth analysis?

No, but seriously, they just reported numbers 50% below consensus and they are in grave danger of breaking their loan covenants. Their crane business is so fucking bad, despite all of the holy rollers in China building shit out of thin air, they will fall below the required leverage ratios and fail to generate enough EBITDA to be considered solvent, inside of a year.

Bottom line: they need to renegotiate their credit agreements or go away. The most likely scenario is some sort of new agreement and the company slugs along, albeit badly injured. However, it speaks volumes about the so called “petrol oil boom,” via crane demand and foreign infrastructure projects. Case in point, MTW‘s competitor TEX. The whole industry is under fire and it debunks any stupid argument put forth by block headed bovines, regarding emerging market growth.

Pah.

Second on the list of doomed industries: oil services.

There are a lot of names to chew through. However, a select few standout as “red flags” with regards to their impoverished balance sheets.

The companies with the worst balance sheets are: BRNC, HERO, NR, BAS, PDC and SWSI.

Other weak balance sheets worth noting: SII, WFT, RIG and NBR.

If I had to choose one name to put a tombstone on, I’d go with BAS. No fucking way they can come up with the $200 mill needed by 2010.

No-fucking-way.

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This is my last post of the day, due to a prior engagement.

I am holding onto my FAZ/SRS/SCO/TLT positions, mainly because I sense something is amiss, with this here market.

Take a look at the open interest in WFC April 10 puts— out of control. Right now, there are 107,000+ open interest for the contracts, compared to 63,000 for the April 15’s. And, to push the dice roll further, someone bought a boatload of April 7.50 puts. Open interest for the 7.50’s is 41k+.

Normally I put zero credence in such things. However, considering the balance sheet of WFC, coupled with the fact that past put buying extravaganzas in the banks have been excellent accurate predictive tells, such as the Bear bankruptcy, it’s worth a mention. That’s all.

With all of its splendor and pizazz, the great bear market of 2009 has returned, and it is mad as hell. Just know, if you are long equities, you are in grave danger of losing your eyes to knife wielding clowns.

Truth be told, as unbelievable as it may seem, I am still not up and running. I have partial liquidity, with limited buying power. So, until I am able to kick old men down idle sewer drains again, my trading behavior will remain pedestrian. I repeat, my trading behavior will remain pedestrian.

So you know, I am making nice coin in SRS, FAZ and SCO today. Frankly, the market can start swan diving from here, if the bears are up to the task. Take a look at the insurance firms, LNC ans PFG. If that does not scare you, nothing will.

As for the banks:

They are all lying their stupid faces off. How the fuck are they, suddenly and magically, making money? Can you say AIG funnel fraud? If so, say it 10 times fast, then backwards.

Right here, right now, I like HME and RIG short. Moreover, I like TLT and SCO long.

Oil is fucked right alongside all of the asinine banks and erroneously managed commercial real estate jokers. This decline will tombstone Jim Cramer’s dickfaces career as a television stock cheerleader.

Jon Stewart will fucking crucify him.

SHAME ON THE HOUSE OF CRAMER UPDATE: Former TSCM columnist, Lenny Dykstra, is a fucking fraud. How many times did Jim suck his dick?

UPDATE: Jim Rogers on the UK.