I was down a little more than 10% on Thursday, an unacceptable/amazing feat, all thanks to my deer in headlights trading in SRS/FAZ. Currently, my year to date gains stand at about 12%, down from 25%.
My position is an awkward one, almost fully exposed to the long side, after a monster run up. Either, this market is as fake as silicon tits or we are in the beginning stages of a Godly bull market. I just can’t get myself to believe the latter, mainly due to the fact that silicon tits are everywhere.
However, I will admit, there have been significant fundamental improvements in the semiconductor space. Every report I read speaks of “inventory restocking.” Apparently, the economy is no longer falling off a cliff. Back in January and February, amidst the new great depression, business grinded to a halt. However, things are normalizing; and as a result, inventories need to be restocked.
Things are better now. Put a smiley face sticker on your car.
Who benefits?
Once again, I like the OSAT (outsource assembly and test subcontractors) space, mainly [[TQNT]], [[AMKR]], [[SPIL]] and [[TER]]. For the most part, I believe the share prices of [[TSM]] and [[UMC]] reflect an inventory rebuild. Therefore, I do not like them. Plus anyway, historically, they underperform the rest of the semis, when business is good.
Another names benefiting from a resurgence is [[RFMD]]. In short, their projected earnings have gone way up, thanks to the increase in cap utilization rates. Should the cap util rate get up to 85-90% (currently at 70%), I believe RFMD will double. The company is working on restructuring its debt and launching new products for the handset market. It’s definitely a name to keep an eye on.
Finally, I am waiting for an entry point into [[OVTI]]. Historically, the stock is cheap, trading less than 1x book. Also, their new iphone contract may ramp earnings, over the next few quarters.
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