Don’t look now, but if Dell Inc. [[DELL]] is about to turn the corner, buoyed by robust PC sales, this market will boot stomp the bears into dust. A new leg up in PC sales will sop up all excess supply of DRAM and Flash memory chips, resulting in a renaissance in chip names. Stocks like Best Buy Co., Inc. [[BBY]] and Logitech International SA (USA) [[LOGI]] will blow away estimates, thanks to end user demand. Naturally, it’s hard to believe anyone is buying anything, if you watch the fat faced Glenn Beck or frequent stupid panic blogs, like (fill in the blank).
My point is this: “The Fly” has been spending money like a drunken sailor. I have no respect for the recession and how it has fucked up people’s lives. Last time I checked, I was flying high, hitting all time highs. So, don’t come here with your bullshit stories of Armageddon. Plutonium Petey has a fucking time machine and the future looks bright.
In closing, I like the refiners here, specifically Tesoro Corporation [[TSO]] , Holly Corporation [[HOC]] and Western Refining, Inc. [[WNR]] . Additionally, I like Sunstone Hotel Investors, Inc [[SHO]] , Flotek Industries, Inc. [[FTK]] , Complete Production Services, Inc. [[CPX]] , Hercules Offshore, Inc. [[HERO]] and TeleCommunication Systems, Inc. [[TSYS]] . Now get the fuck out of here and go eat a burger.
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$logi chart looks like clutch money.
MMMMMMMMMMM BuUUUUUrgers!!!!
http://blog.worldsgreatesthamburgers.com/2007/12/25/best-burger-recipe/
i’m a bit pessimistic about the market pulling much more bullish news. but who knows, i’m ready to change my mind, we’re all chimps watching magic tricks for the first time.
That’s some effed up sheet.
Show that crap to your Japanese business school buddy the next time he gives shit to “Who’s the Boss?”
________
Speaking of burgers here is a 911 call from a disgruntled Burger King customer and wants the cops to come over and make the manager give her the correct burger.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FZ12Ry-hD6I
yar yar yar…..”is it a harmful cheeseburger?”
Maybe the fly has checked out this site, but regarding natty gas here is an interesting article. Of course the ‘Cane play is still alive if the Atlantic cooperates.
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/JubaksJournal/has-natural-gas-hit-bottom-not-yet.aspx
give it a read………….
You just got caught leaning ‘ol wise one. The pullback will begin on Tuesday and will ultimately give you reason to pause and ask rather sheepishly….”what the fuck did I just do?”. The doji is your sign of death. Those that praise the Time Machine will be stuck in purgatory for an ungodly amount of time. Make peace today with the market gods. Otherwise, bring a clean pair of shorts.
The S&P lost 0.05% today. Everyone get to your bunkers.
Lung Sac has been looking for a pullback for so long that he’ll take just about anything as a sign of the coming swoon.
He’d be better off waiting for the dollar to confirm, but….
____________
Jake,
Does seem that way doesn’t it; however the run up since last Tuesday has been with me on-board. I locked in 5% gains today in my BYD long position and switched back to the pullback camp (not bearish – just pullback). Shorts initiated – today – in CI, BLK and BBT. I have been looking for a pullback for some time, but……..hasn’t the world? Doesn’t mean that I ignored the bottom tail in the indices last week.
Shit wears out… Windows 7 is a coming and XP is going out to pasture. The big fish will need to belly up and start to spend. The upgrade cycle is nigh. Bears are dead or still on vacation in Aruba or some other hot place. Maybe we pull back this week maybe not.
Off to eat a burger.
I talked to our Dell rep and we are one of many waiting for Win 7 to get released and the economy to get better before buying. Instead of our usual yearly replacment cycle, we’ve been deferring purchases to later for the last 2 years.
Except when it happens we’ll need to buy 3 times what we usually buy to make up for it.
Exactly.
It’s more about waiting for defects to be “ironed out”. No1 would want to embrace new tech first. it should take us at least 2,3 more years to upgrade to w7.
alright Fly….get the contest a-rolling….first contest “what day will the DOW hit 10k”
winner has to hit the exact day….if no one wins the prize money rolls over to the next contest….all entries posted with postee’s handle to verify.
carry on…
can’t wait.
you also could have a contest to have people submitting their ideas for the contest…..
it’s really limitless…….
Do you mean intra-day or on a closing basis?
OMG, Tim Knight just called the money that rode the 50% rally, “dumb money”
j,
It’s your fault now I have to keep checking in on his blog just to laugh at the latest stupid post.
That guy is train wreck in slow motion
Now the moron went and deleted the part about dumb money in his post and my comment along with it.
C’mon, no need to rag on Tim the Enchanter with made up stuff. He’s bad enough with the actual posting…
________
Oh, okay… I was wondering why I couldn’t find it.
_____
If you want dead and dying bears Joshingu still has his blog up. He’s on vacation this week. It’s not Timmy, but…
The guy is pathetic
Dr Brett would have a field day with him and his excessive trading errors.
Yea I know, TA. It’s a train wreck. You just can’t help watching it.
TA
He’s now claiming only one guy called the rally. Of course it’s someone he knows. Quick call the medics as he’s going into some delusional stupor.
He’s even stupider than I thought.
That’s another one of his textbook plays, when his calls are worth fuck-all he tries to shift the focus to somebody else. Last week he was gathering sympathy for himself by posting some of the hate mail he receives. Now he calls out one of his readers as if to say “look I might not know a gaddam thing, but you should keep visiting my site because at least somebody here does”. That guy is sweating bullets because you know his shitty charting software was sold (for a handful of magic beans I might add) because of his wonderful new age marketing techniques through the blog. No blog and TOS will graveyard Prophet Charts faster than the smell of dog shit fills a room.
Really, he’s selling a charting platform. huh! You’re right, no wonder he’s sweating bullets.
Contrast that with Fly, who tells people to fuck off and not to buy his PPT. LOl.
Yea, the hate mail is a scream. He’s obviously trying to deflect attention from his appalling recent record and then blames these hate mailers who probably don’t exist.
Look at this latest ranting;
It’s lovely that today was a good day for me, but I’ve been through the past five months and know it doesn’t mean squat. You know the last time we had a good, solid down week? June! So it pays to take it one day at a time and assume Goldman is just playing games with us all until things start to seriously, seriously crack.
And, I assure you, ladies and gentleman, that is a day to which I eagerly look forward.
That’s what I mean about not having a fucking clue about anything. The twit “blames” Goldman for an epic rally of historical proportions. So out the window go the charts that are supposed be predictive and in comes his version of fundamental analysis which is so pathetic it belongs on a troofer site. I really can’t believe anyone would swallow that swill.
I’ve never seen a single exit posted except when somebody asks about one of his stinkers, then he’ll say he exited yesterday before the carnage ensued. There’s a reason he claims to hold 100’s of positions at a time, statistically one or two of them have to pay off and who the hell can track them when they don’t.
There are two conclusions one can reach on this guy, either he knows that bearish blogs generate more traffic and so he plays the part the best way he knows how or his trading claims are complete bullshit. It’s probably a little of both…..
Yea good points.
From what I know about short side only traders they really are company specific and almost always never focus on the broad averages. In other words the famous hedge dude that picked on Lehman was essentially looking at the innards of the firm and taking a punt that it was broke. Others have industry themes. All are fundamentalists to the core.
Having 100’s of positions means he’s basically running alpha risk to a large extent and therefore makes the entire thing sus in my eyes.
One other anecdotal thing.. Traders are never pleasant fuckers and he just kills you with niceness. Traders are mean mother fuckers by and large and if not mean they certainly aren’t nice. Fly is a trader on that score itself.
Hate mail? Wow, I can’t wait
It’s like one of those specials on 1000 pound people, you are repulsed by every detail but you can’t stop watching. Now he’s claiming he called a range of 1050-1200 (so wide I can drive a truck through it) which is pure fecal matter. For the past six months on days when he’s gotten his ass handed to him he’d write some mea culpa where he admits that we COULD get to those levels but that it’s highly unlikely. Now he’s claiming he called it, but just didn’t bet it. Good lord, he even makes Atilla the unemployed software developer look good.
He’s really exhibit A as one of those guys Fly suggested in a thread a little while back, ought to give their money to a professional money manager before he loses it all.
Did you see Atilla coming over here a little while big noting himself.
These fucks are all one hit wonders. They can’t figure out the market’s fundamentals and use technicals. However they then botch it up by trading a bias because of their warped view of the fundamentals that they don’t understand in the first place.
dow 10000: may 18, 2014…9800 is the top, do i win? :)…happy end of summer all! time to get serious…
One for the classics and the favourites (sic) list: Can I Tap That?
Ex:
Me: Hey. Question. Can I tap that?
Her: Ugh. No.
Me: Why not?
Her: Maybe if you woulda asked differently.
Me: My fairest maiden, Canst I tappest thou?
Her: Oh good God.
__________
Awesome.
_________
Me: Can i tap that?
Her: What are you going to do if I say no?
Me: Touch myself and cry.
Her: Oh well maybe i will take some pity on you.
_________
Me: Can I tap that?
Him: Sure just don’t tell my gf.
Me: Wtf i was joking.
Him: Oh.
Me: Hey Baby, can i Flotek that?
Her: OMG! Do you kiss your mother with that mouth?!?!
Me: Sorry baby… Hey, can i tap that?
Her: You know you can.
Me: cool.
There is no recession. It is all a lie that was made up by unnamed entities. Anyone who believes otherwise is losing dinero.
There is no DANA only ZUUUUUUUULLL!!!
_________
Wow that brings me back, actually I watched 3 men and a baby last night, yes I know but god that was 22 years ago, wow time flys.
the rally is over now.
C printed 1 $ when the rally began, today C hit 5 $. Target reached. Turning Point.
and the target is $5 because ???
Because Opti-mato Prime says so, dammit!
__________
Consumer confidence & Redbook data tomorrow.
It will be interesting to see how they try and put an uber-obama-mamma-positive spin on this stuff.
Market should have sold off a bit more this afternoon, imho.
Forced 401k buying by fund managers?
Is the working man trying to make-up for their extreme 401k losses by over-allocating on their current paychecks?
p.s.: MOS screwed the pooch today!
Anyone have a good PPT testimonial you’d care to share?
Yes, the PPT is very quiet, lightweight , and powerful.
My quality of sleep has improved since I have been using the PPT and I actually believe my allergies have gone away.
The gentle vibration creates a soothing massage effect.
Thanks PPT.
Caddy:
Your ALLERGIES went away?
Can the PPT do that for ME?
For the LOVE of GOD..sign me up!
Gentle VIBRATION? Soothing EFFECT?
NICE. I think my wife might like that!
For real, though. Not that I don’t appreciate your wordsmith banter.
yeah
QLTI and TCK … to name a few … it’s like a frinkin printing machine
Juice,
I enjoy your commentary.
Do you believe that Fly is up 60% ytd?
If so, in all likelyhood the tool he created to help him do that is useful, no?
Seriously, as Jimmy Bowtie says, “do your own “fucking” research”.
Sign the fuck up for a month with 31 days. Stay up night and day running the thing.
If you don’t make an extra $49 in that month, don’t re-the-fuck-up.
It’s that simple.
Oct has 31
Juice – Try it. It’s certainly worth the price. It’s a very powerful tool like a quality table saw. If you’re skilled you can create beautiful furniture — if not you’ll cut your fingers off.
Dow 10,000
September 17th, 2009
Indie:
The Fly said months ago, that 10,000 would be the inflection point (i.e., a SELL signal)
Since Wall Street now uses the Fly on a daily basis (for decision making purposes), I’d be getting out at 9,850!
lord no….. once 10k is printed, just like clock work, the dumbasses that be, will get so giddy they and the Dennsi Kneale asshats of the world will pump and prance like there is no tomorrow, which will jump the DOW to 10,500 within 5 days after, then the dumb money will pour in, boosting it to 11k in no time……THEN, jump out and wait for the train wreck that follows…..you see we have to wait about 3 months after foreclosures of the last wave, the alt-a and option arms rise month over month, coinciding with the DOW hitting 10k then 10,500 then 11k, coupled with about 6 or 7 more banks being seized by the FDIC (with 10 more on the table) at that time to put the whole thing together…..
then we all short the market and eat steaks….
(see it’s a good news outweighing bad news thing, until the bad news cannot be ignored anymore, CNBC will try their damndest to continue to pump and bypass speaking of the bad news until it is all over other media outlets and they have to capitulate….at which time the DOW will have already fallen into the elevator shaft.)
or not…..ha ha ha
(if the DOW hits 12k followed by 13k forget I said this….)
Uncle Ben reappointed.
Let her rip!
A landslide is coming, my friends.
Prepare yourselves for deterioration of profit margins.
This thing is being propped up by skinny little toothpicks.
The folks out there are hurting. Out of work. Collecting food stamps.
The executive branch would have been better off hiring Criss “is he gay” Angel to do the magic on this one.
Like all great US Air Force fighter pilots, the one thing you don’t want to do in your career, is to leave a “big smokin’ hole”
The smokin’ hole is already there, the market has just got to get through to it, Captain Marx.
In the meantime, have a nice day getting out of coal royalties and getting into imminent BTFO junior gold plays.
It’s the hope of a new generation, etc.
________
China down 4 percent in huge sell off….. it’s time to put every last dime you guys have long VIX futures.
iBC fans in Minnesota??
__________
Your link (code) is broken…
Try this one, instead.
___
Now back to a little economics.
We’ve all been hearing about all this de-leveraging and what it all means. Debt de-leveraging has certainly been happening, there’s no doubt about that.
However it’s interesting to think over the mechanics of this process to understand it it better. What’s actually happening by my reckoning is that there is or was extraordinary demand for cash balances. in other words there’s been a sudden fall in demand for debt and a corresponding increase in demand for cash or cash like balances which of course describes a recession.
The fed of course tries to counter that by expanding it balance sheet in a massive way. The net effect as I see it is that once the larger part of the de-leveraging process stops or rather slows down we still have a enormous pool of fed created money sitting around as bank reserves which is where the rubber meets the road in terms of the next monetary and eventual credit expansion. You can’t really predict with any certainty where that money will be heading in terms of bank lending when it begins to fire up, however that’s where your next bubble will be.
The fed will be slow to counter that effect, so I’m not putting a top on the stock market until we begin to see evidence of the Fed being aggressive on that score. I’m not suggesting that the market is heading to the never never, I’m just saying that it is fool hardy to put a top on this with these dynamics and go short in the belief the top is reached.
Agreed. The difficult part for the Fed, will be the mopping up of the excess liquidity. When the brakes are applied, the top will begin to form.
I’m not saying that there won’t be corrections along the way. That where the bears have it all wrong.
The guy on CNBC just said “you can’t fire the general in the middle of the war.”
Tell that to Harry Truman and General MacArthur.
You forgot to put your Mr. & Mrs. Cleaver moniker on for this one.
________
Who?
Interesting
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — The prices of single-family homes in 20 major cities rose a seasonally adjusted 1.4% in June, the second increase in a row after falling every month for three years, according to the Case-Shiller home price index released Tuesday by Standard & Poor’s.
In 12 months time the press will be talking about the looming housing shortage.
not so fast. foreclosures are not slowing.
7 properties just went in foreclosure across the street from me 4 days ago….signs put in the ground on friday.
we have to get rid of all this type of overhang before anything really truely can see sunshine.
True artist. My timing may be wrong, but the direction is clearly there.
The 7% increase in housing sales was a head turner. Of course some of that was supported by government home buyer grant, however id you combine that with the record low housing starts you begin to see the direction of where ins heading. The over hang will disappear and a shortage will develop.
Just in case all you read is the back of a cereal box:
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/08/existing-home-sales-not-as-advertised/
J,
Stop sipping the kool-aid. Artist is absolutely right. You’re failing to factor in the MASSIVE shadow housing inventory that no one knows about (get it, that’s why it’s “shadow”).
There’s tons of properties banks don’t want to foreclose upon because doing so would force them to recognize the real value of the asset, which, for them, would be to write it down at a huge loss.
On top of this, you have 30% of the country owing more on their house than it is worth. It’s getting close to the point where they’ll just start leaving the keys en masse.
Pedro:
Dude, I owned an apartment in NYC that i bought for $725,000 in 1989. I had it valued in 1991 for $410,000 which meant I no longer had any equity in it. I didn’t leave as I still had a job and in fact never thought of leaving the keys behind and walking away. Where would i go? Buy another place? My credit rating would be shot to pieces? Rent? On an after tax basis I wasn’t any better off and didn’t have a chance of upside.
The residual could quickly turn around as people stay put and don’t move if house prices stabilize as they look like doing.
Bet you still wish you stil had that apartment now, lol.
_____
lol
You still had a job being the key phrase in your response.
You’re assuming this is the case with a lot of underwater “homeowners.”
No I’m not. The vast majority of the people whose homes with be upside down mortgages still have a job.
Those that don’t have been or are pretty close to foreclosed. In any event the foreclosure event doesn’t suddenly ignite the bank to act on writing down the loan as that process started much earlier which was during the time the mortgage interest wasn’t being paid. It’s at that time the bank has to raise a provision and the foreclosure will simply be an incremental difference.
the worst of the foreclosures is just now starting, the last wave.
I don’t know what the end result will be but all the keys that will be left on countertops should end by 2011, then, unless the dumbasses that be drum up another bubble we should have clear sailing starting 2012.
sounds like a long time away but not really.
RUBBISH.
j makes an excellent point; “Where would i go? Buy another place? My credit rating would be shot to pieces? Rent? On an after tax basis I wasn’t any better off and didn’t have a chance of upside.”
Most people will ride out the storm rather than getitng their credit shot to shit. The level headed folks will realize if they do bail on their current house, they will not be able to buy in the next 5 years (without a MASSIVE downpayment or paying outrageous interest) and by the time they can buy again, the bubble wil be reinflated and they will SOL.
Here’s another point about the risk of upside mortgages.
Can anyone explain why people don’t walk away from their loans unless they have to. Cars depreciate the moment you take it out of the lot and is worth less than the loan. By rights you should buy a car on loan every month, turn it in and then repeat the process at regular intervals. Why? Because the car at the early point at least is worth less than the loan. In other words if human behavior is as you suggest there shouldn’t be such a thing as a car loan.
For the most part even with negative equity people will be reluctant to move out of their homes if they can stay on.
There is risk of course but its overly exaggerated I think.
oops
Should be:
Can anyone explain why people don’t walk away from their CAR loans unless they have to.
Again, I reiterate that the key assumption is that people still have jobs.
Beyond this, you’re getting away from my main point: Shadow housing inventory. That’s really the main harbringer of a recovery in housing. All the other stuff are fluff, micro factors. The shadow inventory is an absolute beast of a macro variable that no one wants to account for.
T MOE adds to his TOL short position
That’s funny Moe. i added to my Tol position today. Tol… the Australian company that is ,which has the same symbol. LOL
It’s a transport company: the largest here and buying it on a GDP play.
I have some real nasty looking red candles for the semis on my chart.
Big reversals from the positive open.
Fly, on a serious note, based on your thesis on the refiners and hurricane season, if you can disclose your exit strategy for the stocks in the event of negative hurricane hits on the gulf?
damn Fly, ACAS is killing you lately
We’re going down on “good news”? wtf?
loaded more RTK @1.99
Get ready for HGSI to be on 52 wk high list everyday.
Just bought some LOGI…..what the hell.
sold WNR 5,000 WNR at 6.44 and shorted BAC at 17.81..this rally is ooooooooover
DUMB.
How does fence taste?
After eating a burger for breakfast, i sold 5,000 WNR at 6.44, bought (bought at double botton) and shorted BAC @t 17.81..this rally is ooooooooover..for a couple of weeks now, all indicators have been pointing at weak bull-traps.
Todays highs point to a good spot to go short atleast for a couple of hours, probably days, lol. Lets wait for the full list the names on the Feds emergency lending plan to be released, i’m sure we’ll have more banks on the list than previously thought.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a7CC61ZsieV4
There goes UUP for another nosedive.
I’m telling you, it’s depressing for old Greenback to hear the Lord High Executioner has been re-appointed.
__________
HGSI closes over $20 or those that suck their own cocks will be active!
Fly Sir
May I borrow 100K or so? I’d like to buy some more HGSI but I’m tapped!
10 minute chart of the day is a coiled mutha fuckin spring fuckfaces.
THAT MEANS BUY FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO DON’T HAVE MY ABILITIES!
Tim knight watch… soon to morph into The Kightwatchman.
Tim says:
What a weird morning! The /ES had been marching higher since 1:31 a.m. – – the consumer confidence numbers came in much higher than expected – – the /ES lurched even higher still. And – then – el pukeo.
There are a lot of very pissed-off bulls right now, I can assure you. Because it’s not supposed to happen like that. Failed breakouts are not good for the upside.
LOL. Yea, Bulls a really really pissed. It’s a shocker of a day. in fact it’s so bad 1000’s of bulls are on suicide watch this morning with the market up 80 points.
His threads are getting hysterically stupid now.
LOL
Saw this myself. Exact same thoughts.
He is such a whiny little bitch. Can’t stand him.
He seems happy with his increased traffic. Maybe he can monetize the traffic and cover his losses. /SnarkeyComment
MAIL is gonna blast off through $10
FLY!!!!!!!!
Get out a new post please… Before this looks like The HF degenerate gamblers blog.
indeud.