18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
21,063 Blog Posts

Quick Alert: Too Busy Watching Clemens

“The Fly” has taken the day off, in order to watch a baseball player lie about not taking steroids. Good stuff.

As for the markets: Tech looks damn good. I expect this short squeeze will continue, since the sellers were unable to bring the market lower this morning.

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Good News is Bad News

So the Earth isn’t going to explode. The consumer isn’t entirely tapped out. Stronger retail sales is a good thing right?

Unless of course, you’re a banking asshat who is relying on Cramer to beg the Federal Reserve for more cut rates—like a zombie “politely” asking for “more brains.”

How can the Fed cut rates, while the economy is spitting out better than expected retail sales numbers? We’re just in one of those weird spots (for the markets) when up is down— and down is up. At the end of the day, earnings per share will rule the day. However, until we get to that, the Fed wants to make sure we aren’t getting sucked into a blackhole. Fortunately, we are not.

Right out the open, stocks are surging. However, I anticipate, as the day goes on, they will fade, led by the horse-fucking bank stocks.

Sell [[LEH]]


NOTE: Ragin’ Cagin’s favorite sector, solar, is on fucking fire. Nice job.

UPDATE: This ties into what Gunners was saying. By the way, the “Gunners post” may go down as the best ranked post ever— on the PG. It may get framed and put on the kitchen wall.

09:53 Lehman is increasingly concerned about broker-dealer exposure to synthetic CDOs
  Lehman notes that credit markets were significantly wider over the past week because of weak economic data and heightened concerns around structured credit unwinds. Firm says sell-offs in leveraged loans and CMBS deepened last week, continuing the deleveraging trend throughout fixed income. Firm believes that investors are rightly concerned about negative technicals in the market given unwinds in market-value CLOs, the variety of highly leveraged structured credit products and a large widening of spreads. Actual unwinds are more likely to be driven by fundamental loss expectations rather than automatic unwinds because of spread widening. That said, correlated defaults, particularly in synthetic CDOs could cause a more dramatic unwind, they say. The firm is increasingly concerned about broker-dealer exposure to synthetic CDOs given an active underwriting pipeline over the past few years that may have left inventory on balance sheets.

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I’m Not Impressed

Wow. Did you see that desperate push by the bulls in the last 5 minutes of trade?

The Dow was well on its way to getting raped; then a very suspicious late day buy program pushed the Dow well into the green.

Tech got smoked, led by [[AAPL]] and [[RIMM]].

Despite the melt up, I made money in [[SMN]], [[REW]] and my [[LEH]] short. For a minute, it looked like [[SKF]] was going green. But, as you know, the suspicious late day rally nixed that, rather quickly.

All in all, today was a perfect up day for the bears, as volume remains unimpressive and negative headline risk is pervasive.

Look for the curtains to drop on [[MBI]] and [[ABK]] shortly.

Top pick: SKF

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Position Updates: LEH

My chart guy is telling me: “[[LEH]] is fucked. Be sure to sell it short until you’re blue in the face.”

As you know, LEH is the worst investment bank on Earth, even worse than small African banks. Near term, I am looking for $50.

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Why Make Billions, When You Can Make Millions?

What a day for the bulls. Ag is running. Buffett is “vultering” around, dancing on the fucking graves of [[MBI]] and [[ABK]]. Get in that mans way, he’ll punch the collagen out of your lips.

Once again, the recession of 2008 has ended, thanks to the pending bankruptcies of the monoline insurers. After all, once those goat fuckers go belly up, Bernanke will swoop down in his Chinook and drop money sheets on the masses.

If you’re long and like to day trade, I suggest you go visit Ragin Cajun’s page and leave me the fuck alone here. Ragin’ is on fire.

“The Fly” is no longer interested in 1-2 day moves, you fat fuckers. I want big moves. I do not mind waiting, in order to bank egregious amounts of coin.

So, with that being said, go ahead and make a few million— Mr. Goat Milker. “The Fly” will sit here, patiently, waiting for the “homo-hammer of hell” to drop on you stupid bastards, effectively allowing me to buy your house in foreclosure.

Back to the time machine.

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Buffett vs. Bears

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dlc9pPeS2Q0 450 300]

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Fly Buy: SMN

I bought 2,000 [[SMN]] @ $40.55.

Disclaimer: If you buy SMN because of this post, your barber will accidentally shave off your fucking eyebrows. And, you may lose money.

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Just when I was getting bored of being a bear, the cup fuckers who operate this place (the market) had to go run up the DOW 200 points—for no good reason. While it’s true, the Buffett deal will protect the secondary muni market; it does nothing for mortgages—which is the real problem.

If anything, the proposed Buffett deal will make certain the insolvency of both [[MBI]] and [[ABK]] comes to fruition.

Let’s make this perfectly clear:

No one gives a fuck about the dead beat mortgage guy. The big fuss is due to the muni market. Once that is off the sheets of the monolines, the rating agencies will rip the heads off of the monoline bulls, take their heads—and slam dunk them while exclaiming “BOOMCHAKALAKA.”

The market was due for a rally. In hindsight, the writing was all over the filthy walls, with tech showing its hand early. However, we’ve already run up a good 250 points, in two days. As a result, I will suspend my urge to go long and wait for a short set up.

I’m a bit tentative because the market usually rallies from mid February until mid March, even in bear markets. However, my thinking, the market already had a 1,000 point rally from the lows. Therefore, there is a good chance the mid-late February run may be today, if you get my drift.

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