18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
21,063 Blog Posts

Pay Attention

If you are down more than 10%, year to date, you have no business investing money. Maybe you’d be better suited to be an assclown at your local carnival or some sort of low end blogger. Nonetheless, I want you to pay close attention to what I’m about to say to you:

“The Fly” is smarter than you, even when he appears to be incredibly “unsmart.”

Keep this in mind before trying to poke fun at “The Fly’s” premature SMN buys or RIMM sells.

Just know, if “The Fly” is making trading errors or obvious mistakes, he is doing it on purpose, in order to allow some of you fucktards catch up to him. You know, like a Dad letting his son be competitive in a foot race.

Right now, my largest position, by far, is [[SKF]]. Fuck the banks and the people who buy them.

Additionally, I own a sizable short position in [[LEH]], mainly because LEH is the retard of all investment banks—unable to get anything right.

So sorry.

As for [[SMN]] and [[REW]]:

Thus far, I am underwater on these two positions. However, keep in mind, I sold loads of SMN in the mid 50’s. So, net-net, I’m up. My bet is simple: bet against the winners of 2007, for they will become a “source of funds” for many money managers, as the bear market persists. REW is a bet against big tech. Fuck big tech.

All in all, “The Fly” ended up 1.6% today, much to your chagrin.

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No Bailout for MBI/ABK?

Some believe the muni insurance portion of both [[MBI]] and [[ABK]] will be rescued. However, the mortgage part is doomed for a hot bowl of lava soup.

We all know Moody’s and S&P are aiding and abetting fraud, by keeping these worthless fools triple A rated. It’s the most obvious in your face scam ever, yet it gets no airplay.

Odd, no?

My guess, there is no plausible solution for the monolines, with the exception of failure. With that being said, it makes sense to sell short the banks, waiting for the crescendo sell off.

Top shorts picks: [[C]], [[BAC]] and [[WM]] or long [[SKF]]

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Tech Party

Hey, there’s a tech party and someone forgot to invite me. Although the banks are sucking wind (again), many of the old momentum names are ripping higher, which happens to be very bullish for the market.

Right now, [[RIMM]], [[CRM]], [[AAPL]], [[ERTS]], [[MON]], [[FCX]], [[MELI]], [[BIDU]], [[CLF]], [[HAYN]], [[CENX]], [[AG]] and [[FWLT]], just to name a few, are killing bears—all day.

If you’re short the market, the only thing that’s working is “fuck the banks,” “fuck China” and “fuck commercial real estate,” via [[SKF]], [[FXP]] and [[SRS]].

With my money, I will wait for a better opportunity to buy more [[SMN]], being that I’ve been exactly wrong on recent buy points. And, I will look to buy into select natural gas stocks, like [[CHK]], [[SWN]], [[NGS]], [[UPL]], [[TXCO]], or mortgage companies that invest in GSE agency bonds, like [[CMO]], [[NLY]] or [[ANH]].

However, it’s worth noting, the market still blows and will likely retest the lows of the year, sometime very soon.

Write that down, snitches.

UPDATE: SKF gets you short [[AIG]]. As you know, they’re entirely fucked. And, the Dow Jones Industrial Average just sandbagged themselves, via kicking out [[HON]] and [[MO]], while adding [[BAC]] and [[CVX]]. I guess someone at Dow is against diversity.

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The Next Shoe to Drop

How many companies were taking available cash and reaching for yield?

ADCT fesses up, taking a gigunta writedown.

On previous occassions we reported that credit concerns in the capital markets have significantly reduced our ability to liquidate auction-rate securities we hold. These securities are classified as both short and long-term available-for-sale securities on our balance sheet.

We reported a $29.4 million other-than-temporary impairment charge as of the end of our fiscal 2007 (i.e. October 31, 2007) because of a decrease in the fair-value of our auction-rate securities. Further, we reported that we expect to take an additional other-than-temporary impairment charge as the end of our first quarter of fiscal 2008 (i.e., February 1, 2008) estimated to be $31.0 million because account statements dated November 30, 2007 and December 28, 2007 received from the firms managing our investments indicated a further decrease in the fair-value of these securities. We stated that the amount of this first quarter charge was subject to significant change in the event of additional changes in market conditions.

On February 6, 2008 we received account statements dated February 1, 2008 from the firms managing our investments. We analyzed these statements and concluded on February 6, 2008 that a further decrease in the estimated fair value of the auction-rate securities we hold has occurred. We therefore have increased the estimated amount of the other-than-temporary impairment charge we expect to take at the end of our first fiscal quarter from $31.0 million to approximately $50.0 million. This updated estimate for the first fiscal quarter is subject to change as we complete the preparation of our financial results in connection with the filing of our quarterly report on Form 10-Q.

Taking into account this current increase in the estimated other-than-temporary impairment charge, our auction-rate securities had an estimated fair value of approximately $90.4 million as of February 1, 2008. On October 31, 2007 the estimated fair value of our auction-rate securities was $140.4 million. The estimated fair value of the auction-rate securities we hold could decrease or increase significantly in the future based on market conditions. We will continue to assess the fair value of our auction-rate securities based on our analysis of account statements we receive from the firms managing these investments.

We all know how rich corporate balance sheets are. Well, here’s a thought, where do they have the cash parked? Perhaps the same place [[ADCT]] has it?

UPDATE: G7 fuckers admit writeoffs could total more than 400 billion.

UPDATE II: This is a fitting song.

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dE-LDfroa1w&eurl=http://lolstreet.blogspot.com/ 450 300]

UPDATE III: More shoes (must read)

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Back to the Bear

Well, it looks like the 2 week “early cycle” bull market is over, as stocks fucked themselves, while “late cycle” tech stocks jogged on.

However, it’s worth noting, Cramer is now saying to sell the banks. Perhaps we are due for a bounce.

By the way, people who inject themselves with Botox deserve the severe side effects. Sell short [[AGN]] all day.

Over this weekend, “The Fly” intends to eat several 2 1/2 inch rib eyes, heavily salted, lightly peppered. I made buckets of coin this week— and will prepare to make more, sometime in the near future.

NOTE: Whoever went long [[CMO]] on my rec, you’re welcome. Your invoices will arrive, shortly.

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