Best Quarter Since 1998, Now What?

Back in 1998, I was a hardcore piker, opening new accounts for idiot brokers. In my personal account, joint with Mom (shamed), I had an early AMER position building, which later turned $6k into $250k. I was on the verge of greatness and didn’t even know it.  Without a doubt, 1998 was the low point for “The Fly’s” career, nearly checking out of the business in exchange for a salaried position at Schwab, dealing with the perplexities of supporting a family on zero income for 4 consecutive months. One year later, after paying down $35k in credit card debt, I was fucking bowling on pikers, securing an office at my firm and a staff of junior brokers, even though they were older than me.

Here is the month to month  returns for 1998. Repeat?

January +1.29%

February +6.93%

March -0.89%

April +1.27

May -2.08%

June +4.25%

July -1.35%

August -14.12%

September +6.36%

October +8.11%

November +5.55%

December +6.51%

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XWDoMoprjmE

“Tying the knot is the ceremonial bliss of the soul-mated bud and leaf. A delicate union, this is a ‘meant to be’ tea found 2,000 feet atop the famed Yunling Mountain Range of China then hand rolled into a coil of sacred perfection. Gold and black intertwine as one, creating a unique copper hue with sweet honey notes singing legendary declarations of devotion.”

Upon my last visit to Teavana, where Mrs. Fly concluded her monthly duty of procuring $200 of tea for our pantries, I chatted with the sales clerk about the superiority of Earl Gray and how its bergamot undertones basically reduced the other teas in his store to boxes of feces. Laughing mightily, in his gayish ways, he disagreed. As a matter of fact, he rather insisted that I purchase even more tea to prove his point. Startled and taken aback– by this bold maneuver from a clerk clad in a chinese man costume– I agreed.

Smugly, he waved a large metallic box cover over the large box of tea he was holding– to direct the aromas to my direction. Embarrassed by the spectacle, I quickly agreed with satisfaction and paid for the tea.

When I got home, Mrs. Fly yelled at a very loud decibel that she was, indeud, preparing tea. She’d boil up the water and pour hers into a plunger filled with herbal crap and mine in the majestic Earl Gray. She scurried over to my office and placed a giant iBankCoin mug onto my desk; but it looked different. Typically, the milk dilutes my tea enough to give it a light brown colour. But this tea was far darker and ominous looking. It was quite intimidating, if I might say so myself.

I took a sip.

WOW!

Much to my amusement and chagrin, Mrs. Fly had inadvertently or insidiously, brewed me a cup of Copper Knot Hongcha tea!, fetched from off-reach parts of “poor as fuck” China for my pleasure–the very same tea that homosexual tea clerk had challenged me to try. I must admit, the delightfulness of this tea cannot be described with a single blog post, or any post for that matter. Nevertheless, I report to you with the most dire of tones, THE EARL GRAY TEA HAS BEEN PLACED IN THE BACK OF THE PANTRY, for the time being.

Well, I am happy to report the sale of Le Casa del Fly. It sold the first week it was showcased. The only problem we have now, at Le Casa del Fly, is we’ve yet to buy a replacement home. In other words, come July, we will be homeless. Having said that, I intend to pack the family into an RV and “trailer park” it in front of your pristine grounds, where I will be in a mobile command center, operating– cloaked in ambiguity– iBC’s ORBITAL SPACE CANNON (OSC), intended to be used for aggressive offensive measures.

Very soon, “The Fly” will be coming to a neighborhood near you.

I bought CLR for the oil exposure. The stock has been beaten up a bit, like many other stocks in the sector. In addition to CLR, I like AREX and GPOR too. But CLR gets my money due to their earnings potential and proclivity of $85 stocks shooting to $120 (no Cramer).

YELP got punched in the scrotum this morning, but quickly stabilized as volume seized up. Some fucktard, who knows ABSOLUTELY NOTHING about the company, penned a hit piece this morning. As a result, the shares were, criminally, sent lower. No worries, the shorts inside of the YELPcopter will crash and burn, charred beyond recognition, identified by a few loose molars left over from the accident.

I would not be surprised to see YELP reverse higher into the bell, giving the shorts the business into the weekend. I’d do it myself if it wasn’t for my large position. My reentry price is $25 and lower. I cannot justify adding to the stock here with a cost basis of $21.75.

Everything else is marginally higher. Nothing to see here but zero volatility, big money chasing small stocks into the summer.

Futures are sharply higher. Don’t ask me why they are higher, for I will simply state “urinal shadows, cocaine chuck wagons, counterfeit money, get the fuck out of my way.”

Crack spreads are north of $35; but refinery related stocks are weak. The last time cracks were this high was last summer, right before the fucking collapse. Obviously, people are ignoring fundamentals, trading on emotions, like little bitches. Refiners of high quality can be bought with reckless abandon, providing cracks stay this wide. To be clear, WNR, HFC, MPC and CVI are high quality. Both DK and ALJ are thinly traded and often referred to as “fucking bullshit” around the water cooler.

Let’s not make this harder than it needs to be. The central government has planned to enrich the population through interfering in equity markets. Money is cheap and credit is becoming readily available again. Real estate has bottomed and the elections are coming.

Get ready for more of the same.

I am fresh out of loose leaf Earl Gray tea (tragedy), forcing me to try something from the orient of the chai varietal. I don’t like to deviate from routine and this really throws me for a loop. Mrs. Fly has in her possession over $500 worth of Teavana loose leaf tea, all flavoured with fruit. Even though Earl Gray is infused with bergamot oils (orange), it’s not really a fruity tea. In short, I like my tea like my portfolios: in the black.

With April fast approaching, one must consider the possibility that oil stocks can go up again. It’s been mind-boggling to see them suffer so greatly –with oil so high. It is the purest form of asshattery that market has ever known. In the oil and nat gas space, SWN, HP and WFT are on my radar. Also, if the market softens, CL is poised to do the $100 roll. Boy did Icahn play that one like a fucking senile old fucker, no?

Although pricing pressures persist in the glass substrate market, at some point, Asahi and Corning will get their acts together and start ripping people off again. Remember when SNDK was under $20, due to weak NAND prices, despite the popularity of the Ipod and Iphone? Well, as sure as I am sitting here, margins for GORILLA GLASS will improve and the shares will trade much higher. Should we get an Apple tv, shares will rebound immediately.

I own BID for the spring auctions. JWN is a trade, as well as MAS and TDC.

CPST is trading wrong. The company isn’t in such bad shape. I am convinced it will be 30-50% higher by year end.

YELP can trade down 15% from current levels without a problem. Or, money managers get the drift that YELP has no competition and is in a class of its own, bidding the stock up–fervently–until Facebook ipo’s. Either way, I foresee myself trading it for many months to come.

Should we trade down some more, I will take a 10% position in EXK. Both EXK and AG are cheap.

Finally, my only reservation about being a blind bull is China. It’s clear to me that something is off there, as evidenced by their struggling market and weakness in met coal prices. The weakness is met coal is causing a whole slew of industrial names to trade down, under a singular thesis: china is slowing. If China is slowing, then ANR will file for bankruptcy, alongside AKS. It’s tempting to buy BTU, TCK, MTW and WTI down here. But, if the market is really one big fucking pozi scheme waiting to implode, then those sectors (coal, steel, industrials) will get lambasted first and foremost.

The Samurai chai isn’t half bad, but not nearly as distinguished as my usual.

I wanted to buy MAS and GLW on the dip this morning. But I held myself back because the positions were down less than 5%. Cash reserves must be used smartly, designed to buy real dips of 10% or more.

The market reversed from a 100 point deficit to flat. This bodes extremely well for a “rip your tits” off rally tomorrow, aboard the cocaine chuck wagon, traveling violently at frightening speeds, breaking the skeletal structures of bears in the way.

I warned you before and I am telling you again: we’re going to new all-time highs. As unbelievable as that might seem to you, so foreign, full of fantasy, it’s going to happen. Now you have as choice in front of you, presented with a wax seal, placed on your desk. Should you continue the feckless path of financial bleakness, TVIXing yourself into deep deficits? Or, will you join the party, hop onboard the cocaine chuck wagon, hosted by the eminent, God’s only son, Benjamin Bernanke– and bathe in the profits descended from the sky?

This is a rally fueled by counterfeit money. Does it make sense to bet against it?

I tripled my BID position.

Futures are pointing to yet another lower open. Shares in China are getting hit on a daily basis and European stocks are at 3 week lows. Basic material stocks are vastly underperforming the S&P and risk appetite seems to be waning. Having said that, I don’t give a shit. Stocks are going to trade up, by hook or crook. The only question is: what sectors can I find the best return?

I see people are buying tanker stocks because of dry bulk shipping rates. Well, frankly, that’s retarded. The only reason why the shippers are doing “okay” is because record amounts of tankers are being scrapped for its metal. On top of that, coal volume is down sharply. Until the steel industry comes back, spurring a boom in the met coal stocks, I want no part of the shippers. They’re all connected.

I still like high end retail, due to its unique position away from the lower class. I own BID and JWN–and will add more on dips. As a matter of fact, being fully invested, I have but two choices with regards to my positions: add to them or buy more.

Generally speaking I cut losses at -10%. However, if I really like the idea, I will double down at -10%. In many ways, that is the crossroad for me. Other times, I will sell out of a stock when it is just 5% below my basis, specifically for names that I have little confidence in. At the moment, I am up significantly in YELP, but down slightly in MAS and GLW and flat in TDC, JWN and BID. I am down 18% in CPST– but continue to hold for superficial reasons.

At the top of my buy list is RAX, BID, ADTN, ULTA, KKD and TRIP. Also, should the market become OVERSOLD, gold and silver will jump to the top of my buy list, due to the high correlation between market bottoms and the miners. Within the space, I like AG and EXK.

Social media stocks are great, especially with Facebook set to ipo within 60 days. Understand something, that will be the grande finale of this run. It’s very possible that the market will top out with the FB ipo, which means social media stocks should be sold into the Facebook ipo. Nonetheless, I believe there is more upside in the space before they top. My favorites are YELP, TRIP, BV, BCOV and YNDX. OPEN, TZOO, CTRP and OSTK are also interesting, if only from a short squeeze point of view.

During the course of today’s trading, I am going to research some new names, perusing over the April seasonality list inside of The PPT, plainly ignoring the temporary weakness that has the ursine crowd circle jerking again.

I am going to make a presentation for the fine gentlemen/ladies who read iBankCoin. All others, particularly those of the vagrant class, will be precluded from seeing this post, as it is written in a special/patented font that cloaks my message to those of the Mezzo Cito–making it invisible to the naked eye.

My question to you is: at what price or valuation do you buy a winner?

The correct answer is: any price.

I’d love nothing more than to say “see I told you so. The fucking charts had some pentagram formation, blended with a little trapezoid humour that told me YELP was about to explode.” I don’t rely on technical analysis for any of my trades, although I know people who do it very well. I didn’t know YELP was about to explode by 50% in a week. But I knew, down to the depths of my black soul, that it was going higher.

One my best friends growing up was over for St Patrick’s day dinner and we discussed his account. At the time, believe it or not, I had him in a little VXX (friends shouldn’t let friends invest in VXX). He was eager to make money quickly, mainly due to boredom, so I told him I’d just buy up some YELP because I was absolutely positive it would trade higher at some point in 2012, just like WNR at $12, GMCR @ $25, GSVC @ $12, FTK @$1 etc. What I didn’t know is that the stock would do this, fucking nuts.

Now I haven’t sold any YELP, mainly because it’s not a question of making money anymore, but how much. The way I see it, the stock is going $40 at some point in 2012; I’ve always believed that. Should I miss a short term top, I will buy the dip. It’s that simple.

Granted, I could sell at $31 and reduce myself in a fucking frying pan to pussy sauce. Or, I can man the fuck up and say to myself “Fly, you’re better than those dicksuckers out there. All they do is watch cartoons, play video games and lose at shit. You’ve been trading in and out of stocks like a fucking lunatic fisherman in a dry pond for over a year, taking small gains and living off the dust of the earth. You can either continue this egregious lifestyle of conviction-less investing or sack up and see this one through.”

I really said all of that shit to myself.

So there you have it. You should take profits and go buy some hamburgers, or whatever the fuck you idiots eat for dinner. I, on the other hand, have deiced to leave the office, in search for greener pastures, literally, with regards to a real estate transaction of the personal sort.

Here is some of the early commentary on YELP, inside of the the “user notes” section part of The PPT.