Fly Buy: TZA

I bought a small position in TZA- personal account.

I sold out of AG and 20% of AKS.

I cannot believe Italian yields are below 6%. Spanish yields are at 5.14% and the crisis that was running red hot two weeks ago has vanished, literally. There is now panic buying taking place in distressed European debt and global equities and sell offs in German and American paper.

It’s all very nice that we get to enjoy this respite. However, don’t forget about declining global growth, which will pose as a significant headwind in 2012. I am all for this GORILLA RUN now. However, in 2012, my outlook is very somber and I believe profits should be taken, especially if you can’t take the heat.

When enjoying melt ups like this, remember the pain you felt just two weeks ago. This rally, as “awesome an amazing” as it is, will end. There is a specific algorithm to this market. I have proved this by inventing The PPT. If my edge is greater than 50%, I am ahead of the game. We are running analysis on the lifetime of PPT scores and the data is absolutely astounding.

Peaks and valleys. The market is a like a terrain filled with low and high points. It is your job to lighten up near the top and reload near the bottom. If you can do this without blowing yourself up, you will have a great investment program. Having said that, profits should be taken up here in increments. That doesn’t mean you sell everything and go short. You will not hurt yourself by putting 20-30% of your assets to cash. The greed you people demonstrate is grotesque and almost unbelievable.

Also, stop overweighting in 1-3 stocks. If you cannot afford to invest in at least 5 stocks, you are gambling. If you can live with that, so can I. However, some of you Uncle Fuckers have millions in the market and buy 1-3 stocks, hoping to hit pay dirt. Are you fucking insane? Your lack of respect for money is borderline criminal.

I sense weakness in this tape. Buyers are exhausted and sellers are creeping in. Several of my positions are red today and I’ve shed 1/3rd of my intra-day gains. I am not worried about the bottom falling out because European yields are cratering. But that doesn’t mean we can’t have an ordinary, olde fashioned sell off.

Following my double down in RBCN, I ceased all buy orders. I am a seller into further strength and will reserve my cash for dips.

I doubled down on my RBCN position.

Disclaimer: If you buy RBCN because of this post, your young children will find out the truth about Santa Claus. And, you may lose money.

Many of you are catching full bans from the site today. I’ve been monitoring many of you and have decided you offer zero value. Therefore, as the market melts the fuck up, your viewership privileges will be revoked. If you missed this rally, you shouldn’t be in the market.

Santa Claus is real and he’s gonna chop your heads off while you sleep.

Into the melt-up, I will push the envelope in names like CVI, GSVC, AKS, LULU and WNR. I own a lot of AG too. However, I may be a seller of that shit, all depending on the mood of my urinal shadows. For the day, “The Fly” will be celebrating his revival from the depths of hades, as his holdings appreciate towards ALL-TIME-FUCKING-HIGHS.

I just wrote 200 words of drivel about how this market was on the verge of punching short sellers in the face through late January. I deleted the post, then proceeded to defeat my youngest in a game of chess. It’s really stupid for anyone to make long term predictions at this stage in the game. The truth of the matter is, the market is running on faith now. Technicals and fundies have a limited effect on the market. The daily fluctuations of this tape are dictated by the news flow out of Europe. We’ve all known this for sometime now. Pardon my redundancy.

About a month ago, I was sitting high on the hog, spitting at people down below, with annual gains of 16%. Then, all of a sudden, Mother Market chopped my hands off, preventing me from pushing the sell button as the market plunged amidst euro-panic. I shed an amazing 16% aka all of my gains in three short weeks. At the very lows of the market, I was distraught, feeling a sense of defeat and helplessness, as the news turned from bad to worse. I held my positions, only because of my Kamikaze mentality. If my personality was different, I probably would have sold to protect assets from going negative for the year. I rationalized my reasons for being long, declaring that gold/silver miners (then 40% of assets) would benefit greatly under a euro collapse. Luckily, as seems to be a common occurrence throughout my investing career, the worm turned big time last week, allowing me to recoup a staggering 13%.

Upon receiving this great boon, I booked profits in all of my miners, except AG, repositioning the funds elsewhere. Why? To be honest, I don’t know. I just didn’t like the way EXK, NGD and RGLD were trading early Friday morning. I realized selling them would go against everything I’ve been saying for the past month. But, to me, nothing else was more important than making money. My opinions change often and I cannot help that. This will confound most of you, especially new people to the site. If you follow my moves over time, however, you will learn to understand the method behind my madness.

Let’s take the example of TEA. I penned an article on TEA when the stock was $24, declaring it could become “the next big thing” in retail. In addition to my bullish points, I pointed to the fact that the shares were very expensive and it could drop by 50% without pause. The reason why I didn’t buy it was the same reason why I sold NFLX @ $90. I could not rationalize being long high risk names, with questionable valuations, into a shit storm of negative news flow. In a way, I got lucky. After all, I liked the story and did not feel the excessive valuation was a huge concern, considering high growth names like PNRA, AMZN and CMG have been “expensive” for years. I just used my gut, and as a result, avoided a murderhole.

The same thing happened with my LULU last week. On earnings day, the stock cratered 8 points. I was very close to just booking the 20% loss and moving on. However, I could not justify booking the loss given the paltry bear case. The earnings were good. People were bugging the fuck out. By closing time, the stock was down just $2, recovering $6 from 9:31am. The next morning, it caught an upgrade, leading to a $2.5 melt up. Another disaster averted.

My point is this: investing successfully is a lot more than reading balance sheets or charting moving averages. It is an art. As an artist, I look at things that many of you might not even notice. On the other hand, my jaded view on stocks often prevents me from enjoying huge winners. It’s a trade off that I am comfortable with because it works for me–having crushed this tape every year since 2003. If your philosophy has never worked for you, do not be afraid to get radical and try something different. Over the course of my career, I was a balance sheet guy, bond guy, VC guy, iPO guy, bank stock guy, biotech guy, tech guy, healthcare guy, military contractor guy and even a chart guy. I’ve endured millions in losses before it all “clicked.”

Do not lose faith in your ability to make intuitive decisions. Is it luck or skill, who knows? At the end of the day, does it really fucking matter?

I dodged some serious munitions today, matrix style, by selling RGLD, NGD, BZH and EXK. I didn’t exactly knock the cover off the ball with new purchases, but I saved a great deal of money through using the power of intuition.

I can sense the groove is back, as I am able to make money at will again. For the day, I gained 1.3%, putting YTD returns in the mid 13% range. I am really feeling GSVC, ahead of the Zynga and Facebook ipo’s and feel it’s only a matter of time until real money is allocated into this stock. I’ve been trying to reach out to management. But they seem to not give a fuck about their investors. The truth of the matter is, I am one of their biggest independent investors, owner of several hundred thousand shares. Yet, these brainless goat-fuckers can’t find 10 minutes to entertain my rage. I am sure Mr. Moe will read this and suddenly become a bit more receptive, although I wouldn’t bet on it.

The refiners have bottomed. There I said it. I am an owner and buyer of WNR and CVI on weakness. I can buy a lot more too, as both positions are not large.

I held onto one precious metal stock, AG, and it did okay. I am a buyer of silver miners on dips, but a seller of AG above $17.

It was a great week and you should be proud of yourselves for holding the front lines in the face of grotesque panoply, fending off attacks by jheri curl’d bears. Don’t fall asleep at the turret, however. The grimaldi men will be back at it next week or my name isn’t Captain Swordsman (no homo).

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=whRRR08A3Ac

Apparently the dicksuckers in Congress, specifically the republicans, are crafting a bill to STOP the IMF funding of the Eurozone. Most of these men do not know the difference between a bomb or a bund, so this should come as no surprise. This is nothing but political posturing, as it is the ardent belief of the Tea Party intelligentsia to commit heinous acts of austerity, even if it means the end of the global financial order. If and when the world collapses, they will simply blame Obama for spending so much. It’s equal to firemen with hoses watching a house burn down, then blaming the residents who perished in the fire for having lit candles inside the house.

As a result, the euro is cratering, down more than 0.6%. I know my posts have been very bullish on silver and gold and I still think they work well into 2012. But my intuition kicked in early this morning, when looking at my YTD return of +14% and EXK, RGLD and NGD floundering in a robust tape. I sold it and booked hard fought profits. With some of the proceeds, I bought a number of stocks mentioned in an earlier post.

The reality is, the market is overheated. But the bull rally is not over. If we give a little back, it’s not the end of the world. The banks are roaring today and I do not think we are setting up for a rout in this market. To get a sharp reversal, stocks like GS, JPM, JEF and MS would need to go red. I just don’t see that happening today.

Bottom line: if you are long and held firm throughout this shit-storm, get out of the house and eat a sandwich. Things will be better in the coming weeks, as holiday sales astound the haters. As a matter of fact, I am getting the fuck out of here right now, confident that my House of Sugar will not be devoured by crying babies craving for financial calamity as I march on my local mall.

With the proceeds of my earlier sales, I bought AKS, CVI, GSVC and GMXR. CVI was my largest purchase.

I sold out of RGLD, NGD, BZH and EXK. I kept AG.