Summer is Over, Asshole. Back to Work

Fuck all of you guys bitching about lack of entertainment at iBankCoin. All of the clowns and all of the court jesters have been thrusted out from our confines. What you have left, walking these hallowed halls, is the Order of Men who are familiar with the speculative world that you endeavor to circumvent.

I’ve lost more money in a single week of drawdowns than you posers have in a life time of paper trading, trying to curry the favor of catamites looking for gurus on Stocktwits.

I have no interest in giving you insight, following a night filled of debauchery. Just know this, “The Fly” wins all the time, even when it appears he’s losing badly. I’ll recover from these hits; I always do. We will host the iBankCoin Investors Conference, whether you’re there or not.

It’s gonna be a great year, one way or another. I can’t let the negativity, that intends to suffocate me with its garish intentions, get to me. There is only one obstacle in my way to achieve unchecked success and Jeremy Bentham styled hedonism, and that is myself. Nothing is impossible, not even a Federal Reserve fueled rally that can rip and shred off the faces of every single bear alive.

It’s time for a little mean reversion.

How has Exodus faired during this decline? In recent weeks, the system has been adjusting to new levels, intuitively learning the new normal and identifying trends.

There have been 6 OS signals for the principle 36 mo algorithm, of which 3 have proven to be profitable within 5 trading days, one loss, and 2 are still open–the last registering on Friday.

Here is the longer term track record.

81% win rate over the past 3 years. Don’t even try to compete.

This correction is only unique as far as the rarity of its existence in recent years. But the manner in which the best stocks, in the most richly valued sectors are going down, is exactly like all the others.

The light will appear at the end of this dark tunnel, soon enough, and we’ll be slapping each other in the faces with colossal shrimp cocktails with the vigor of 10,0000 Bill Ackmans.

I see Raul is really feeling himself today, attempting a coup to cold jack the website from my pale white hands. I will have you know, Sir, that I am back and the arts of cinema are entirely mine.

Good day to you.

American Psycho is one of my favorite films of all-time, one that I hold dear for sentimental reasons. When this movie came out, the market was in a horrible bear market. At the time, I employed my best childhood friend as a cold caller and then account opener. I thought he had some real talent. But for whatever reason, he was unable to endure the bear market.

At any rate, this movie was his favorite and he literally used to emulate Christian Bale’s character, whenever he could. I recall on one occasion someone asked him a question and gently touched his suit while asking it. He looked at the man, as if he had ten heads and said “the suit. Don’t touch the suit. It’s virgin wool.”

There was also a time when he convinced me that the business cards issued by the firm were inadequate. “Both the paper and ink qualities were lacking,” so I took them down to the local print shop and got some super high end shit made. Upon seeing this, the sales manager at my global investment bank went ape, trying to explain to me how marketing went through great lengths to create the former design that how we couldn’t use the new and improved ones. Come to think of it, maybe that’s the reason why my friend quit the business. The shoddy business cards were probably too much for him to bear.

He’d also come to work at 5:30 am, leave a few meatball sandwiches at my office door, with a note that read “sorry, I went home. I didn’t feel well.” He’d actually do that often. Who the fuck does shit like that, leaving nice sandwiches at my door with a note of excuse? Why not call that shit in, sans the delicious meats? I never quite understood it. But my partner and I did enjoy the sandwiches, probably more than his work.

At any rate, American Psycho is a choice movie, one that me and my friends emulated for a year or two, while the markets were mired in the deepest and most horrifying bear market since the 1970’s.

Futures are getting hammered, following a day when a slew of high growth names got smoked for 5%+, as the Dow climbed by a deceptive 56. Should things follow this trajectory, you are all going to regret the day your Father decided to date your Mother. With most high beta stocks off by 20%+ over the past month, look for the balance to tip over and send the lot over into the fucking pits of hell, elevating capital losses to astounding levels and reducing the Twitter-trader cabal into motherfucking clown-dust.

Goodnite.

This is the worst flat day in the history of the stock market. My stocks are doing worse today than when the market was down 500. And for what?

Margin liquidations. Hedge funds rebalancing out of risk, etc, etc.

This is a classic pattern, one that has fucked me numerous times in my career. It’s the bifurcation of the market, splitting the risk from conservative free cash flow names like a motherfucker. This trend isn’t in its final stages, unfortunately. In my experience, these sort of moves tend to exacerbate to the downside, forcing people to sell into extreme weakness.

One day these risk names will come roaring back. But by then, you will be long out of them, unless of course your time horizon is long and you still have dry powder to average down. This is the very worst part of investing and it tends to trick almost everyone, professional include. The demoralizing grind and rapid price movements tend to stress people out and cause attrition in the market. Once the last bull throws in his towel, then the market will bottom.

My best guess is to be long in size by October. September will likely continue to grind out traders until we get an ultimate inflection point. I do not believe the market is doing anything irrational. This is standard operating procedure, an olde fashioned “squall” if you will. Students of the market should know that these moves are to be expected and are always temporary. We might very well resume a downtrend, one that sustains itself for years to come. But even during bear markets there are pockets of brilliance, places to hide, asset classes to buy on the cheap. What you’re seeing here is tossing out the baby with the bathwater. An enterprising speculator will view this as it should be: opportunity.

The stock market is more rigged than ever, thanks to the cabal of venture capitalists. Men like Marc Andreesen (sp?) and Frederick Wilson enjoy inflating the wares of their private investments, share their schemes with loyal friends and family, then dump them onto an ignorant investing public, courtesy of your local investment bank. When market’s disconnect, like they are doing now, this is when the layman, the ordinary goat herder reading blogs for information, can separate himself from the pack and score big wins.

The venture capitalist cabal couldn’t care less about public markets, only as far as its liquidity is concerned. They want to sell their “investments” at 100x sales and never look back at the damage they’ve inflicted upon investor psyche/purse.

STEER CLEAR OF ALL IPOs, for they are wrought with schemes and diabolical intentions to use you as a source of liquidity. The sooner the market starts rejecting IPOs coming public at 20x sales, the faster we can rid ourselves from being hoodwinked into the GRPN’s, ZNGA’s and ETSY’s of the world.

Seriously, when was the last time a stock came public, went up after IPO, and held its gains for more than a year? I can think of a handful: PANW comes to mind. But they are rare. The IPO market wasn’t always this fucked. Back in the day, if a company came public at 10x sales, that was insane. Now that’s value.

The only exception to this scheme is found in biotech, mainly because Mr. Wilson has no edge in the FDA approval game, which is why the best performing IPOs, post market, have been found in this sector, with overwhelming abundance.

I am harsh on the VC community because I hate what they represent. They stand for the worst type of greed, an avarice that is solely directed at taking advantage of the small investor, while ingratiating themselves with ungodly gains.

Fuck them.

So many people love to visit cesspools around the world, in order to “take in” the depravity of a savage populous. Raise your hands if you’ve ever visited Thailand, Africa or any country east of Germany?

Precisely.

Whether you know it or not, you visited these indigenous countries in order to see how the savage comports himself. You visited his towns and devoured his disgusting food. Your mind tricked you into believing that you were enjoying your stay, when in fact, deep down, you were wholly disgusted by the ordeal.

The same goes with the stock market. If you’ve ever invested overseas, not including the civilized countries of England, France and Germany, I am sure you can recall a moment that you’ve questioned your own sanity for being long an inferior civilization. One should not trust the stocks of an inferior people’s. Sure, when times are good, their novelty is interesting and somewhat entertaining. But when times are bad, like now, they will bite your face off–cannibals running through the jungles naked with scary masks atop their heads.

Regional banks like SBNY and BOFI interest me here, as well as my top pick AMCX. I am not enthused by today’s rally. It has a certain tenuous feel to it that makes me uneasy.

An oversold bounce was had today, as traders sashayed (no homo) in and out of stocks to their wicked hearts delight.

As for me, I allocated more funds into AMCX and now hold around 20% cash. I think I’ll hold suchness into the maelstrom of the next two days. Sadly, we are to be without trading in China for the remainder of the week, as the dog-eaters take holiday to bask in their never-ending field of lies and deceit.

“The Fly” was up around 0.4% today, an otherwise meaningless day for the First Estate. The good folks at Exodus had advanced knowledge of today’s melt-up and were able to partake in the grandeur of TQQQ, FAS and other fanciful ETFs of extraordinary measure.

The market has bottomed. Trade accordingly.

NOTE: I am long BIDU.

I’ve been meaning to buy this for a long time, since the days of Breaking Bad. The stock had gone up, uninterrupted, until now.

Ever since that DIS miss and fear of people unplugging their cable boxes in droves in exchange for Hulu and Netflix, AMCX and other cable and content operators have been hammered. What the fuck are you people thinking? Do you really think the average American is going to bother with non-traditional television and all of a sudden become tech savvy, just to save a few bucks off their cable bill?

Morons.

Content will always be King and AMCX has the goods.

From Fear of the Walking Dead to Hell on Wheels to Better Call Saul, they are the shit.

Have a look at their numbers.

Valuation wise, the stock has never been cheaper. Data provided by the good folks at Exodus.

PE

PS

The upside in AMCX isn’t as high as many of your vagrant stocks that have recently been clobbered to the tune of 50%. However, the prospective gains are of a more distinguished and gentile manner, one by which you could parlay near the countryside and enjoy a tall glass of lemonade, without worrying about harrowing events emanating out of China.

For now, AMCX is a small position of mine. But I will make it bigger. With content like this, it’s only a matter of time before someone swallows them whole.

It’s September again. That means it’s time for you to put down your lightly frapped glass of champagne and get back to work. While you were gone, junior over at the old trading turret completely decimated your business. Now you will need to build a new one from scratch. How delightful!

Over the past three month’s, as you jet skied across Europe and pounded 8 balls of blow into your faces, stocks went down…a lot. More than you could imagine, actually.

Check out these numbers.

Look at all that red, boy.

What went up?

Home healthcare, tobacco, hard liquor and a few regional banks. But the banks are getting slaughtered now, so that’s out the window.

I think I heard Marc Andreessen say something about AAPL being only 1/10th of its true fair value today. As you can see, the VC cabal had a very fine summer, as their cocaine addled minds, craven for money, imagine that Apple might be worth as much as 7 Trillion dollars. Sure, why the fuck not? If AAPL is worth 7 trillion, then all of Marc’s wonderful private investments can be worth billions of dollars, without any semblance of profit, or even revenue. Why, the VC cabal can write their own checks, create their own ponzi schemes, and seemingly dump all of their refuse onto an uneducated investing public.

Anyone interested in buying some WAYFAIR up here?