18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Once every thousand years, the immortal gargoyle known to you as Dennis Gartman makes a great market call.
Just yesterday he told you to not be short of commodities, for he felt the money has already been made there. Instead, he’d greatly appreciate it if you were long of commodities, preferably in yen terms, so that he might execute his one great call per millennia, as transcribed in the New Testament.
Gold stocks are up 2.2%
Oil stocks are up more than 2%
Hell, silver is up 2%
Even steel stocks are up 1.2%
Even still, I don’t trust anything about this market. The margin clerks haven’t made their rounds yet and breadth stands at a paltry 58%.
Make no mistake, this is a very tenuous rally that could easily unravel and get ugly fast. If we are to bounce, there is a solid 500 points of upside left, so there’s no reason to rush in now.
Look, I’m in this thing on the long side, one way or another. I will not sell out here, at extreme oversold levels. I’d rather fucking die, literally. In my last post I laid out a scenario that might be playing out now.
We entered the opening tick with hope; futures had been up around 70. Immediately, biotech stocks, a leadership group to the upside and downside, underwent severe selling action. Then the whole market followed it down into the pits of hell, plunging the NASDAQS down 22ish.
I published my post, went to go get a swig of cyanide (I am building an immunity to it) and voila, the fucking NASDAQ is up 22!
Now this is a text book key reversal, one that might mark a near term bottom. Or, this could be a god damned trap, one that ropes us into a false sense of hope, then drops the dick guillotine on us like a motherfucker.
Either way, it makes for interesting conversation (awkward smile).
Where is that grandiose 100 point snap back the futures market promised us? Right now we’re about flat; but the under current is negative. Those 3 guys in pajamas that Cramer has talked about, always playing with our futures markets, have done it again.
Biotechs are being hit, once again. It feels as if nothing can pull the market out from its doldrums. Then again, every single downturn that I could remember felt the exact same way. Eventually, you give up hope and quit calling for bottoms. At that point of indifference, the market will rise, catch everyone flat footed, then proceed to bash in the fucking skulls of all of you who were so mean to it, selling it short and casting aspersions, releasing midnight bearshitter movies on the internet (extra Icahn) and the like.
This is a depressing time to be a bull, or anyone who manages money on a professional level. Bear markets and recessions are man-made creations of abject idiocy, formed from paranoid thoughts and projected depression. They’re almost self fulfilling prophecies, so don’t discount the offal you see and hear on the teevee, for eventually the fantasy will become reality and all of your money will be gone. Poof, right into Jim Chanos’ purse (extra homo).
These drawdowns are expensive lessons and thw Dow is now off 50 and the NASDAQ is off by 20. The stories might be imaginary; but this fuckery is real.
Dow futures are up 98 and some little piker company, ticker PNX, just got bought out for an outrageous 169% premium.
Europe is moderately higher and of course Asia got crushed. Let’s see if US markets can lead the way out of the seemingly never ending spiral of margin liquidation, or continue to circle down the toilet bowl.
Congratulations to Henry Blodget and co for building such an immensely popular destination. I know that the success of BI wouldn’t be nearly what it is today, had it not been for Joe Weisenthal, who left last year for Bloomberg. I hope he held onto his BI stock.
BI sold to Axel Springer, a German media company, who already owned 9% of Business Insider. For some reason, the owners of Business Insider decided to retain 3% ownership, perhaps as a memento.
I know some of you will immediately hate and decry the gossipy brand of journalism that BI puts out as “unsavory.” Well, now you have 343 million reasons to shut the fuck up and simply sit back in awe of its success.
Why was there a trailer out for this 15 minute opinion video, one day before it was released?
Isn’t Carl too fucking old to drum up all of this drama for an opinion piece?
Why is it filmed in HD, by his daughter?
God damn it, this is the stupiest shit ever. Sorry Carl, but you lost Fly credits and will no longer fall in under my protection when the apacalypse hits and I am a warlord, occupying your area.
The NIKKEI and Hang Seng are off by more than 3% tonight. Let’s be honest with one another, no other markets are credible or worthy of discussion in that God forsaken part of the world. Do we really give a shit about Singapore or the kangaroo shit shovelers in Australia?
Your game is over over, mate. The commodity boom has ended and in its place is debilitating depression, locked in through deflation. This is the sort of depression that is permanent. There isn’t a way out from it, unless of course your central banks are willing to “reset” the whole system and default on all of the debt.
I’m just gonna write until I feel better about myself, so bear with me.
During tonight’s Asian coverage on CNBC, the retarded host and guest keep pronouncing Carl Icahn’s name “iCAN”, like he’s Tim Cook’s latest gadget. Personally, I can’t wait for old man iCAN’s video tomorrow, where he intends to discuss the “great (motherfucking) catastrophe” that we’re barreling into. I love it when men worth $20 billion warn us whipper-snappers of impending doom. In no way is that man connected to reality. His life is a fiction. His legacy is priority. His words are meaningless.
Petrobras has $170 billion in debt. Anyone want to guess when they might seek bankruptcy protection? How about CHK? How is this oil and gas, levered to the hilt, credit crisis different from the 2008 housing varietal? Thanks to easy money and a high oil price, money flowed feely into the coffers of our oil and gas companies. Now that Armageddon has gripped the fucking helmets of those George Bush’s, banks and financiers are left holding the bag of shit.
Who has exposure and how much is it?
Doing some quick scans in Exodus, it is a fuckload of debt.
In the oil and gas drilling equipment space, the median debt/eq ratio is 1.83. The total debt stands at $239 billion (lolz). Companies whose debt/eq ratios are greater than 5, also known as dead men walking, total debt exposure stands at $33 billion. But that’s just one little industry. Let’s move on, shall we?
Oil and Gas equipment: $84 billion/ distressed debt, as defined by debt/eq levels above 5: $8.4 billion.
Independent oil and gas: $115 billion/ distressed $31 billion.
Oil and Gas pipelines: $257 billion (lolz)/ distressed $1.57 billion.
Refiners: $65 billion/ distressed $00.00
Major Oil: $617 billion/ distressed $00.00
Ancillary debt structures that are under pressure:
Alternative Energy: $18.6 billion/ distressed $5.1 billion
Solar: $26 billion/ distressed $3.3 billion
Industrial Metals and Minerals: $86 billion/ distressed $18.7 billion
This is a rather general analysis of the industry. I am sure the terms of much of the debt out there is flexible and long dated. Nevertheless, it’s important to note that equity markets, for all intents and purposes, are effectively shut down for all distressed energy companies.
Total publicly trade energy related debt: $1.5 trillion.
Total publicly traded energy related DISTRESSED debt: $101 billion.
This is very reminiscent of the credit crisis of 2008, when those fucktards at the Fed were jacking rates up in the face of an industry in crisis.
“Given the progress we’ve made and continue to make on our goals, I view the next appropriate step as gradually raising interest rates, most likely starting sometime later this year,” Williams said.
Let’s summarize our economy and see if this Fed Williams is right.
Tech: A Fred Wilson induced bubble of epic proportions.
Biotech: Don’t even.
Oil and Gas: The #1 source of high paying jobs in America, now in ruins.
Retail: Come on, son.
Utilities: Really?
Industrials: China says no thank you.
Pray tell me, Fed Williams, where is the strength you speak of and how does higher rates do anything but hurt us at this moment in time?
With people like this leading us, it’s no wonder how we got to a place where we have 19 trillion in debt, an insane foreign policy agenda, and Donald “fuck you, you’re fired” Trump leading in the polls.
Fuck the Fed (I thought I’d never utter those words).
This would’ve never happened under Chairman Bernanke. In a few short years, under the tutelage of a unqualified Yellen, the Federal Reserve have become irrelevant, neutering themselves a little bit at a time, slowly but surely, speech after speech. The whole notion of hiking rates in this fucking environment is beyond absurd, it’s suicidal.
We know our Fortune 500 companies are hurting, laying off jobs, because of a strong dollar. So what does out Fed do in response to China blatantly devaluing their currency? They discuss rate hikes!? Think about that for a minute. We are working for the Chinese, bolstering our dollars for their benefit.
I am not surprised by anything anymore. This isn’t a nation led by the people for the benefit of the people, but instead for a select few, by a group of individuals I’d never like to see at my children’s birthday parties.
We closed down more than 300 today. Nothing was resolved. We left the marketplace without a glimmer of hope. Asia is going to get harangued into submission tonight and Volkswagen will ensure more bad news in Europe. It’s a good time to be short. I harbor zero regrets because every decision I made, I made them with good intentions based upon the reliable information that made me coin in the past.
What’s the point of discussing “buy lists” and levels to look out for? It’s full blown crisis out there and no one is manning the ship. Janet Yellen is at her local diner, eating an egged salad sandwich, then vomiting the whole thing back into her mouth, practicing for her next public speaking performance.
As the market winds down another day of crash sequence trading, I am enlivened and comforted by the fact that Fed Dudley insisted, just this very morning, that the Fed would raise rates in 2015.
Biotech stocks are off by 8% today…as an index.
Our oil and gas industry has been decimated, thanks to the absurdity of its business model, which calls for oil to price above $70 per barrel…forever. Otherwise it’s grossly unprofitable and therefore must cease to exist.
Our tech sector has been swallowed whole by Apple. Nothing else exists.
Our shopping malls are barren and the stores inside of them teetering on bankruptcy…mainly because job creation in this country has moved away from the higher paying varietal and more towards Shake Shack.
Plus anyway, the deflationary vortex known as AMZN is, slowly but surely, making sure that the retail landscape changes on a permanent basis.
All of these things, these great wonders, permits our new Fed chair to make speeches and to allow her underlings to make speeches about the virtues of higher rates. If the argument for higher rates revolves around the idea that we must do it now, so that we can cut rates later, why the fuck are we doing it in the first place? It seems like a giant circle jerk to me.
The sad part about this drop is that it’s not the worst I’ve ever seen. I am entreated to these drops once per year, each time in a difference sector. My only wish is for the whole thing to just fucking crash already, down 15% in a single session, so that I could get some closure in my life.
