How has Exodus faired during this decline? In recent weeks, the system has been adjusting to new levels, intuitively learning the new normal and identifying trends.
There have been 6 OS signals for the principle 36 mo algorithm, of which 3 have proven to be profitable within 5 trading days, one loss, and 2 are still open–the last registering on Friday.
Here is the longer term track record.
81% win rate over the past 3 years. Don’t even try to compete.
This correction is only unique as far as the rarity of its existence in recent years. But the manner in which the best stocks, in the most richly valued sectors are going down, is exactly like all the others.
The light will appear at the end of this dark tunnel, soon enough, and we’ll be slapping each other in the faces with colossal shrimp cocktails with the vigor of 10,0000 Bill Ackmans.
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not sure is soon ( sp need to hit 1500zone )
The Exodus also had 950 individual names Hybrid OS with only 28 OB. That split is intense.
I trust Exodus and not the “thus time it’s different” crowd. Market is a game. We go down. We go up. News is garbage. 81% win rate is ultra impressive.
except you have a 13 month topping process creating a little problem (according to the brilliant notsobrilliant affable but never likable always barely funny Gary Kaltbaum. of course)
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I was talkin’ to the preacher,
said God was on my side …
Then I ran into the hangman,
he said it’s time to die …
You gotta tell your story boy,
you know the reason why !!!<
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To draw such conclusion from such small number of samples, is a complete lack of statistical analysis. Have you considered your statistical error is larger than 50%? That means your assesment is meaningless.
What sort of gibberish are you speaking about, son? The error isn’t larger than 50%. The hit rate is in excess of 80% and I’ve been delivering beat downs to people like you, through PPT and now Exodus, since 2008.
If you have zero idea what you’re speaking about, please refrain from speaking.
bwahahaha
philipwen you’re missing some things,
There’s a difference between back testing and forward/performance testing.
If you hand pick a city in the world on a Tuesday in December and find that 80% of the time it snows, the market goes up then that’s meaningless… But that’s not at all what has happened here. This is not “back tested data” with no conceptual/fundamental basis. Forward testing proves the results were NOT curve fitted. An already statistically proven concept (dip buying/mean reversion) has been fine tuned in a way with an adaptive algorithm and several dozen trials have confirmed that a winning concept wins.
If election polls of 1/120,000th of the entire population can prove to reliably reflect the entire population of voters 90%+ of the time as long as one candidate has a 3-4% lead, then I’m pretty sure that the last several dozen results with 80% win rate (not a 54%) are well more than statistically relevant over the next several dozen.
Finally, put aside the statistical jargon and think what you are saying. That some very clear statistical evidence that confirms existing statistics about a statistically proven concept is worse than none at all? LOL, yeah, OKAY.
I do think the caveat “individual results may vary…” is appropriate. Think Rosie O’Donnell taking an aerobics class. Or Donald Trump teaching an intercultural studies class.
Speaking of Trump, here’s what The Onion satirical site has to say:
Frenzied Trump Supporters Admit They’d Be Just As Happy Tearing Him To Pieces
‘We’re Just Mad And Want To Destroy Something,’ Say Candidate’s Backers
http://www.theonion.com/article/frenzied-trump-supporters-admit-theyd-be-just-happ-51240
Satirical site, but maybe not so satirical in this case lol
A long only bias will not work out well in this market. For six years, Mr. Market has pretty much sold the public and novice retail traders on the bull market and now he is pulling the rug out from underneath and eventually will buy their liquidations at the bottom. Dow to 13,600; S&P down to 1365. So let it be written, so let it be done.
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… so, I have had a relaxing holiday weekend …
Grilling … Eating … Drinking … and most importantly watching lots of US Open Tennis on the TV !
I’m sitting here tonight watching Federer vs Isner …
… on the ESPN broadcast they have Brad Gilbert (former player) doing commentary from the “expensive” court side seats !
So. they go to Brad with the camera for his comments … and there sits David Einhorn next to Gilbert just sitting there … taking in some of the action !
Kewl !!!
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At least Einhorn can enjoy some tennis. He can’t be enjoying his results this year!