The Truth Hurts: This Market Sucks

I keep waiting and waiting for this fucking market to allow me the opportunity to dance on the graves of my enemies, urinate down on my foes from atop mountain; instead, all I get is this back and forth horseshit, with one clown car blowing up after the next.

It’s never cool for entire asset classes to disintegrate. The oil and gas implosion happened and I made very little noise about it–because my exposure was limited. Now the biotech sector is under seige; and again, I am laughing at it because I am not the one on the chopping block.

When the social media sector blew up for the first time, I was horrified by the outcome.

I know we’re all experts out there, sagely walking through this minefield of financial fuckery. I wouldn’t blame or cast aspersions upon any of you for having a rough go at it these last few years. This is a market to break gurus in half, shit them out, and flush them into the mouths of alligators. That was very disgusting. I know it. But that’s how I feel with this tape: utterly disgusted.

My bear blogger Bluestar is posting large picture of vermin, which is fitting. For the day, I’ll probably make some money; and in the past, I might’ve made fun of you for losing coin.

Not today. “The Fly” is turning over a new leaf with his readers, one with unparalleled understanding and comradery. For the time being, we’re all in the same boat, trying to figure out how to survive. Consider this a detente, a temporary ceasing of hostilities for the benefit of all.

Top picks: BIDU, SLCA, SHAK

NOTE: Fred’s ETSY is at a new 52 week low.

I’ve never been much of a zombie genre fan. Fuck zombies, unless they’re real.

According to “live plus same-day” estimates from Nielsen, the zombie drama averaged a monster 7.43 rating in adults 18-49 and 14.6 million viewers overall — up slightly over the show’s season 5 averages but below its fall 2014 premiere (8.65 in 18-49, 17.29 million total viewers). That year-ago opener remains the show’s highest-rated telecast on record.

Well, I sold my AMCX stock last week, so I have no exposure to today’s 3 point drop. My only question to you, the zombie fan freak: how was the season premier? Do you think ratings will improve?

If so, AMCX is a buy.

Basic logic here. I’ve always wondered why I never bought and held this. By this, I mean XIV, inverse VIX.

Only recently has volatility creeped up, causing this fine ETF to get cut in half. Alas the life of a volatility trader. Nevertheless, it has rallied off the lows, now about $30. Should the panic subside and things get back to normal again, I have no doubt that XIV will be back to new highs.

It has been a matter of Federal Reserve policy to remove uncertainty from the markets, literally, which is why the VIX has been mired in the doldrums for years. There are brief periods of excitement. But, the over-arching trend has been to grind volatility into the dirt and to have very orderly and methodical moves higher in the broader indices.

We know China is weak. We don’t need no stinkin’ data to tell us that. The market is a forward looking indicator, not backwards. The question for today is: will China take the necessary steps to give their economy a jolt? Is there any room for improvement?

If so, then like Carl ‘give me three seats on your board’ Icahn, buy FCX.

The news out of Twitter is good. They need to cut the chaff, because clearly the wheat is being lost.

For me, I need this China scare business to dissipate and I need a fucking rally, right now. I extended myself last week, going all in on a varietal of names. I had some success last week and would like to build upon it. But the nature of this market is an evil one. It hems and haws, teases both longs and shorts; but fucks all parties in the end.

We fucking rally now or sink into oblivion. That’s my position and I’m not going to waiver.

They also reaffirmed guidance. If by guidance, they meant losing large sums of money on a continuous basis; they assured us of that too.

Twitter sees Q3 revenue and adjusted EBITDA at or above the high end of the previously forecasted ranges of $545-560 mln and $110 million to $115 million, respectively.
This compares to $559.46 mln Capital IQ revenue consensus estimate.
Co confirms that on October 12, 2015, the Board of Directors approved a restructuring and reduction in force plan of up to 336 employees, constituting approximately 8% of the company’s global workforce. This had been speculated about in the media.
TWTR estimates it will incur approximately $10 million to $20 million of cash expenditures, substantially all of which will be severance costs. Total restructuring expenses are estimated at $5M to $15M, which is lower than cash restructuring costs due to a credit related to non-cash stock-based compensation expense reversals for unvested stock awards.
Excerpt from letter to employees from CEO Jack Dorsey: “Product and Engineering are going to make the most significant structural changes to reflect our plan ahead. We feel strongly that Engineering will move much faster with a smaller and nimbler team, while remaining the biggest percentage of our workforce. And the rest of the organization will be streamlined in parallel.”

The stock is up 1.5% in pre-market trading in a really tough tape. I like the stock here and feel these moves were necessary. I am long.

S&P futs -9, oil up 0.5%, gold -0.4%, dollar -0.33% v euro

Higher

AXN +23.1%; who give a shit?, SAP +5.8%; German nonsense, JNJ +1.1% (earnings, $10 bill share buyback), FAST +0.5%; boring.

WPP +37.2% (Wausau Paper to be acquired for $10.25), BUD +2.2% on becoming the Italian mafia of beers.

TAP up 12.5% because people think someone will buy them. Like who? There is only one beer company in the world now.

PLX +29.6% (they cut a deal with PFE), AEZS +15.4% (some bullshit study), UNXL +9.6% (manipulation), GTXI +5.9% (FDA clearance to begin trials. This is really not news), YECO +6% ( Some Chinese airport contract), FRO +5.6% (mystery), PACB +3.4% (confirmed earnings release date will be Oct 22 after the close), CEL +2.3% (mystery!), ETP +1.8% (Cramer pump magic), TWOU +1.1% (post Citron report bounce).

Analyst comments: TRCO +1% (initiated with a “this is good” at Evercore), TOL +0.6% (upgraded to The Shizzle from Aight at Morgan Stanley), POT +0.6% (upgraded to The Bomb from Okay at Bernstein), CGNX +0.5% (initiated with GOOD SHIT at Cowen), SWHC +0.4% (resumed with a H.A.M. at Wedbush), MTX +0.3% (upgraded to Bomb Diggity from Nonsense at KeyBanc Capital Mkts)

Lower

Fucked up earnings: FMC -9.4%, R -6.4%, AIXG -6.3%, DFRG -4.9%, SMSI -4.8%, XRX -1.5% .

Euro-land banks sucking wind: HSBC -4.1%, BCS -3.7% (to name former JPMorgan banker Jes Staley as its new CEO, according to reports), RBS -2.4%, SAN -2.2%, CS -1.9%, DB -1.9%.

ZFGN -36%; canceled investor conference, fucked.

Metals and miners back to sucking again: BBL -2.9%, BHP -2.9%, MT -2%, KGC -2%, RIO -1.9%, FCX -1.9%, GDX -1.8%, AEM -1.5%, SLW -1.4%, NEM -1.4%, GLD -0.7%.

Oil and Gas stocks that are embarassing themselves this morning: BP -2.2%, PBR -2.2%, STO -1.9%, RDS.A -1.8%, TOT -1.5%, SDRL -1.5%.

Even airlines are down. Maybe this is the end of the world?: AAL -2.3% (downgraded to Horseshit from Quality Meal at Evercore ISI), ALK -2.0% (downgraded to Zero Interest from Wow, this is Cool at Evercore ISI) SKYW -1.5% (downgraded to Persona Non-Grata from VIP at Raymond James), JBLU -1.3% (downgraded to Fuck Airlines from Airlines Rock at JP Morgan), UAL -1.4%

CANF -6.2% (dilution; insiders don’t care), COLL -5.4% (FDA shits on them), TC -4.7% (Who gives a shit?), EOX -3.3% (lenders getting cold feet), FIG -2.6% (closing a macro hedge fund that obviously sucked), NVO -2.3% (mystery!), CCL -0.9% (expands into China, which is a scam), LLY -0.6% (continuing yesterday’s droll behavior).

Analyst comments: ACI -2.2% (downgraded to Offal at JPMorgan).

Britain’s inflation rate came in negative for only the second time since the 1960’s. CPI numbers, worldwide, are painting a very deflationary picture, one that has us fucked as investors.

Everything is pointing to a red opening, with France leading the way down 1.5%.

US NASDAQ futures are off by 19; our Fed is retarded.

A merger of swills, a true white trash marriage if I’ve ever seen one.

The Budweiser maker offered 4,400 pence a share in cash for a majority of the shares in its nearest competitor, gaining brands such as Peroni and Grolsch, and giving it control of about half the industry’s profit. The price is 46 percent above SABMiller’s closing value on Sept. 15, the day before the companies disclosed they were in contact about a potential bid

This is further evidence that credit is in great supply. The end of the world has been delayed.

What a wonderful class of companies.

Fuck all the VCs and investment bankers who priced these deals.

This evening on CNBC, Dennis Gartman, told his audience to ‘fade crude’, in egregious terms. He thinks “hedgers” are coming back into the market and that $50 might be a top. CNBC host, Melissa Lee, called him out, saying “just last week you were never as bullish on crude. What’s changed?”

He then hem and hawed and said “oil would never go to $75” and how it “couldn’t get past $60” because of ‘hedgers’.

He closed out his missive saying ‘crude oil has lost my interest.’

Him and the fucking hedgers.

My take: D. Gartman just fucked himself. Prepare for $75 crude. The stock gods mock Dennis on a regular basis.

Discuss.