After a 35% Run in Commodities, Cramer’s Chart Girl Says They’re About to Breakout

For the better part of 5 weeks, commodity related stocks have enjoyed huge upticks, after catastrophic losses were imposed on them through January and early February. Since 2010, the sector has been plagued by over supply concerns and a softening GDP outlook in China. More or less, the commodity segment of the market has been a dreadful place to reside. Even worse, it has been next to impossible to time bottoms.

UNTIL NOW!

Cramer’s chart girl is suggesting that “this is it” and “now might be the occasion” to dive into the cement pool, headlong, for it will be brimming with chlorinated water soon.

Cramer must think we’re all gypsy fuckheads playing with voodoo dolls, fireside, by a flaming barrel of garbage– clamoring for idiot advice. Naturally, commodities are entitled to rally and could be on the verge of a supernatural denial of gravity. But, given the recent history, supported by the indelible facts that economies of scale are getting WORSE and not better, it’s not likely to occur.

This time is different. It feels different. Global growth could be coming back. My chart girl is super awesome and amazing and says if this line breaks that line, then all pandemonium will break loose.

Here are some of the 1 month returns of mega-cap stocks in the commodity space.

CLR +61%
CVE +22%
ECA +85%
PBR +57%
MRO +51%
FCX +38%
VALE +27%
TCK +26%

It’s worth mentioning, there are a litany of gold/silver stocks up high double digits thus far.

Nevertheless, the commodity sector is on the verge of breaking out…now.

Complete horseshit.

The neutral money changers at UBS are advising clients to sell the rally, in plain terms. They believe we are building a jenga styled top here, which is bound to topple over and crush the skulls of all in its path.

“With the rally of the last few weeks and looking at our daily trend work, the S&P 500 has reached its most overbought position since 2009!!” wrote analysts Michael Riesner and Marc Muller, with added grammatical emphasis. “We see the market vulnerable for a significant reversal this week, which we would see as the beginning of a tactical top building process and subsequent correction into deeper [second quarter]. We reiterate … [that we] would not chase the market on current elevated levels.”

There are two ways to view this, in my opinion. On the one hand, we are clearly overbought, having run up 12% over the past 5 weeks. On the other, being the most overbought since 2009 isn’t necessarily a bad thing, since it defined a generational bottom for equities–ushering in a golden age of winship for investors worldwide.

No wonder biotech stocks shot higher today. As a people, we all need the assistance of pain killers and psychotropics to cope with being around one another. Some people will never be happy, no matter what you do to help them ‘see the light’. Detente was tried once before and it failed in record-breaking misery.

Aside from a few large cap outliers, for the most part, today was a loser. Most of the big losers were found in oil, a sector tragically overvalued and headed for trouble. Banks were the other downside standout, as Moody’s moves to downgrade Deutsche Bank.

We were very fortunate that this 5 week rally occurred, permitting investors to sell with dignity. In approximately 4 weeks henceforth, global markets will be disjointed again–thrusted into the evergreen fires of agony. There will be bankruptcies and rumors of such an occurrence. You will assuredly rue the day you decided not to sell, opting for a ‘wait and see’ attitude, hopeful for the future which is already tainted by impending doom.

Aside from that, I am sure we’ll get along just fine, circumventing the markets like good old Cristopher “THE RACIST” Columbus and his little boats in the Atlantic.

Dark days are most certainly coming. Board the ark.

NOTE: I am short XLE, long TLT.

The knee-jerk reaction for right wingers is to lay waste to the Middle East, post Brussels. The looney brained liberals take a more suicidal tact, always afraid to offend someone else. Their oversensitivity to other people’s ‘cultures’ and ‘rights’ borders on the inane. Here in this interview, Nigel Farage, a politician in the UK who is pressing for England to leave the EU, is asked if it would be ‘fair’ to penalize the 95% of good muslim migrants just because 5% of them are bad. This is the thinking of a crazy man. Then, as I’ve been seeing on the teevee all afternoon, they said these terrorists were likely born in Belgium and the migrant issue that is strangling forward nations like Hungary is a non-starter. Immediately Farage shot back, saying then their parents were let in through these polices, establishing ghettos and none of them assimilated into western societies.

The whole concept of accepting 5% of the rotten fruit for 95% mystery fruit is foreign to me. The big push, naturally, is for the removal of all borders. We’d become one giant, ravenous, tribal, people, hitting one another with our holy books. The serenity of the nation-state is the enemy of this current crop of ill-intended politicians.

To argue against unchecked, unlimited, immigration, is the equivalent to wearing a Klu Klux Klan costume and waving a confederate flag.

This is all for business, make no mistake. If you thought slavery was abolished in the 19th century, then you haven’t taken a look at where Apple makes their iPhone–the gentile FOXCONN suicide plants.

Britain should most certainly vote to exit the EU, for it’s on a course for disaster, led by leaders whose perversions of reality endanger the very people they govern.

Biotech stocks have been abysmal this year. My favorite long term healthcare stock, GILD, has done nothing, slightly lower for the year. But the smaller companies in the space are down like Bill Ackman was clamoring for a board seat. It’s been tough.

However, over the past two days the sector has stridently moved higher, to the tune of almost 4%. Even still, losses are in the double digits for 2016, making it by far the worst sector to be long for the year.

Here are some charts of the prnciple sectors of the market, represented by ETFs.

I still think the crude rally is transient and am short XLE.

Apparently, the Iranians are unfamiliar with the sloth like deliberate nature of our government. Several months following lifting the sanctions from Iran and they’re still unable to get lines of credit or access to the $100 some odd billion held in foreign banks.

Why do these crazy middle easterners keep all of their money in western banks?

This is a very amusing story, especially since everyone is super critical of Obama for allegedly lifting said sanctions. The truth is fantastic. We’re fucking with them on a giant scale, while making deals using their money ‘frozen’  in escrow.

Iranian hopes of rapidly ending the country’s economic isolation are fading as particularly European banks – some of which have already been hit by hit huge U.S. fines for sanctions busting – fear falling foul of the many other restrictions imposed by Washington that remain in force.
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has accused the United States of foot-dragging following the official implementation in January of a nuclear deal with major powers.
“The Americans have not acted on their promises and (only) removed the sanctions on paper,” he said in a televised address on Sunday, complaining that international financial transactions faced problems because banks “fear the Americans”.
U.S. banks are still forbidden to do business with Iran and while lenders based elsewhere are not covered by this ban, major problems remain. Chief among these are rules prohibiting transactions in dollars – the world’s main business currency – from being processed through the U.S. financial system.

“We have to try to put pressure on America to make this issue clear. Otherwise, removing the sanctions does not mean anything,” said Ferial Mostofi, chairwoman of privately-owned Iranian project management firm KDD Group.
“If the banking situation stays as today, definitely we shall be facing problems for the payments,” said Mostofi, who also chairs the Investment Commission at the Iran Chamber of Commerce.
The U.S. Treasury, which is responsible for enforcing sanctions on Iran, gave no immediate response to a Reuters request for comment.
Iranians based in Dubai, historically one of Iran’s main trading partners, complain they cannot get letters of credit to finance deals with their home country, while others have even had their company bank accounts closed in recent weeks.
The problems are also complicating Iran’s plans to sell more oil, as well as recover up to $100 billion in assets that had been frozen by the sanctions in foreign bank accounts.
Since January, Iran has struck agreements worth an estimated $50 billion with countries including Italy, Japan, South Korea, Russia, Germany and others involving trade, project finance and other investment.
Agreements include a contract to buy 118 Airbus jets worth $27 billion. However, the funding needed to turn agreements into firm deals is another matter.
One Airbus executive told a conference in Paris last month that “we only see the back of banks at the moment”, telling them: “Don’t be afraid!”
Banks remain deterred by a $9 billion U.S. fine on BNP Paribas in 2014 for violating U.S. financial sanctions and other penalties, and the head of the French banking federation told the conference that lenders had yet to be assured of “complete legal security and clarity”.
That will be tough as long as Washington keeps the ban on processing dollar transactions for Iran in the U.S. system.
“Until U.S. sanctions are lifted European banks with major operations in the States, of which there are many, will still be exposed to onerous trade restrictions unless they can prove complete separation of European and U.S. divisions of their business,” said George Booth, a partner at law firm Pinsent Masons.
“That’s easier said than done. It should not be underestimated the level of internal restructuring required to satisfy this criteria,” said Booth, who advises firms hoping to do business with Iran.

All of those airplane deals they announced were mere press releases, nothing tangible about them at all, sans the help of evil western banks.

This has the feel of a rally in the making. A culmination of horrible events taking place in a major European city has take less than 0.4% from our broadest index. Moreover, French markets are down less than 1%. This tells me markets wants higher.

CAC down 0.8% and Belgium is off by only 0.25%. Pfffff.

Crude down a smidge. Everyone loves crude again, with exception to the crude companies. They fucking hate the stuff. Unprofitable business.

Risk off? A little gold rally to make the panic look genuine.

Treasuries are up because they were down so much yesterday. Plus, money managers feel obliged to buy them today, or at a minimum not sell them. Who knows what other terror lurks in the balance?

Markets are taking today’s horrible events stridently. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Nasdaq higher by the day’s end.

Nothing he said here was news, other than the fact that he hails from a newspaper dedicated to taking an ‘America last’ stance on just about everything. His take from all this: ISIS is ‘wickedly smart’ and Obama was off for calling them the JV team.

I apologize for not covering the markets response. I will get to that soon. This video was taken almost immediately after the attacks. It makes my blood boil.

This was one of the better exchanges this morning, as President Trump makes the rounds. A visibly rattled set of very nice and ‘progressive’ women trying to deal with Trump’s alpha-male rhetoric almost drove them insane. You can tell they wanted to jump out from the chair and scratch someone, preferably Trump.

They just couldn’t believe the non PC shit that was flowing out of his mouth. They used to a much more gentler type of man, especially when at work.