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Dr. Fly

18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.

There Will Be Blood

Something tells me (time machine), 2010 will be a year of indecision. I do not expect the markets to plow higher or collapse. Instead, I expect we will  ebb and flow, just like 2004.

The bull case is very enticing, as inventories restock and global growth comes back online. However, in general, people are “negative nancies.” Expect morons with small brains and big balls to sell into news, based upon the musings of useless fuckfaces on CNBC.

“The Fly” sold out of many of his favorite names today, because he loves “the money.” Price targets, for the most part, are inane and represent a persons ego, not practical, actionable events. So, with that in mind, I think Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. [[GMCR]] will touch down on $100 during 2010, but I sold it out, nonetheless.

Why did I sell it out?

Answer: because I can.

I am beholden to no stock, person or organization. It does not bother me to miss out on winners, since I have a special ability to pick winners, almost at will. If you are twisting my logic to suit your own bearish thesis, you are sorely mistaken. This is still a LONG ONLY market. Any proceeds from sales that I execute will be swept into retarded, low interest bearing, money market accounts. God willing, if the markets pulls back from here, I will look to reposition into a variety of tech names, as discussed, here on this fucking blog, no more than 1 week ago.

In short, I am re-balancing and adhering to the laws of the hybrid aka The PPT.

Top pick: Gammon Gold, Inc. [[GRS]]

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Cashing in My Chips

I woke up this morning and decided to cash in my chips, head the fuck home and eat sandwiches until the Sun explodes.

I know this will throw many of you into mental sinkholes;  I upped my cash position to 50% this morning.

DUN,DUN,DUN, DUNNNNNNNNNN.

As soon as the market opened, I started selling out of positions, with great vigor, just because I can.

I sold out of Cummins Inc. [[CMI]] , Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. [[GMCR]] , TEKELEC [[TKLC]] , 25% of POSCO (ADR) [[PKX]] , 90% of [[TAN]] , Corinthian Colleges, Inc. [[COCO]] , 50% of Nucor Corporation [[NUE]] , United States Steel Corporation [[X]] , Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia, Inc. [[MSO]] and Ctrip.com International, Ltd. (ADR) [[CTRP]] . I held onto some names, mainly because I can’t go “Brittney” and shave all of my hair off at once. Instead, I went to 50% cash, like a gentleman sipping on a fancy glass of single malt Scotch. Should the market continue to rally, I will sell another 10% of my holdings, going to a maximum 60% cash. At this point, I simply cannot go to 100% cash, with exception to my personal trading accounts.

At the present, I still own some POSCO (ADR) [[PKX]] , Nucor Corporation [[NUE]] , Flotek Industries, Inc. [[FTK]] , U.S. Global Investors, Inc. [[GROW]] , Jarden Corporation [[JAH]] , CGG Veritas (ADR) [[CGV]] , Brocade Communications Systems, Inc. [[BRCD]] , [[TAN]] , Citigroup Inc. [[C]] , Equinix, Inc. [[EQIX]] , Gammon Gold, Inc. [[GRS]] , GlaxoSmithKline plc (ADR) [[GSK]] , ICICI Bank Limited (ADR) [[IBN]] , The Mosaic Company [[MOS]] , Petroleo Brasileiro SA (ADR) [[PBR]] , SandRidge Energy Inc. [[SD]] , Sociedad Quimica y Minera (ADR) [[SQM]] , Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd (ADR) [[TEVA]] , Visa Inc. [[V]] , Vimpel-Communications (ADR) [[VIP]] and [[CBD]] .

The rationale behind my drastic change in opinion cannot be understood by people with IQ’s less than 155. Therefore, as a result of this conundrum, I will not attempt to explain my actions to you. Just know and understand, football is great and chicks look hot in bikinis. Also know, beer tastes great icy cold.

More on this later.

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OCkLEo-DT1Q 616 500]

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Today’s Market Summary

in video.

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-iwmLrA2vs0&feature=related 616 500]

“Doughnuts don’t wear alligator shoes.”

-A Great Man

NOTE: I am now up more than 8% for the year.

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Fly Buy: JAH

I bought 5,000 Jarden Corporation [[JAH]] , north of $31.20.

Disclaimer: If you buy JAH because of this post, rabid dogs will eat your cat. And, you may lose money.

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Fly Sell: MAS, ATPG, EWP

I sold out of Masco Corporation [[MAS]] , north of $14 and ATP Oil & Gas Corporation [[ATPG]] , north of $17.30.

UPDATE: I sold out of [[EWP]] , north of $41.10.

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Remember to Take Profits

I probably won’t sell a whole lot today, mainly because I am stubborn in my bullishness. I am embedded in this market until pigs fly. However, some of you lesser folks out there may want to book some gains here, just in case.

I am looking forward to earnings out of Jarden Corporation [[JAH]] tonight. They should be a blowout. And, look for the company to discuss plans to market a single server coffee maker, licensed from Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. [[GMCR]] , under the venerable Mr. Coffee brand. Thus far, sales out of Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. [[BBBY]] and Sears Holdings Corporation [[SHLD]] have been terrific. There is not reason to believe Jarden Corporation [[JAH]] will disappoint.

The metals are surging, based upon reports of “restocking inventories.” For more than a year, inventories have been lean. Look for businesses to restock on steel, copper and other metals, forcing capacity utilization rates higher. Firms like United States Steel Corporation [[X]] and Nucor Corporation [[NUE]] stand to benefit greatly from an uptick in demand.

Tech stocks are surging. My favorite name in the space is TEKELEC [[TKLC]] .

Finally, the dollar is getting trashed, as predicted here by myself and Uncle “fucker” Jake. Gold stocks have my blessing. My fav is Gammon Gold, Inc. [[GRS]] .

NOTE: The Overall Hybrid score is high. How high? Go subscribe to find out, you damn leeches.

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“The Fly” Wins Again

Betting against “The Fly” is like going to Vegas and putting your life savings into the fucking slot machines. From time to time, you will win a few bucks, giving you the courage to bet again. However, at the end of the day, you are borrowing money to get home—because you lost it all betting against the house.

NEVER bet against The House of “The Fly,” especially for a duration of longer than 1 week. Eventually the laws of nature come into play and I win, such is the case today.

I am enjoying the splendor of winship today, all thanks and praise to those dastardly “buy only” robots at Goldman and the Federal Reserve.

From POSCO (ADR) [[PKX]] to Nucor Corporation [[NUE]] to United States Steel Corporation [[X]] to ATP Oil & Gas Corporation [[ATPG]] , I am winning.

However, now that the winning is out of the way, some of you may want to book some profits—just in case.

NOTE: I was going to get into detail about Chinese superstitions over the year of the tiger aka “widow year” and how weddings were up 100%, yoy, just prior to the new year and how Ctrip.com International, Ltd. (ADR) [[CTRP]] could stand to benefit from such a social shift; but I changed my mind. You fuckers don’t deserve anything by the black flag.

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Goldman Sachs Killed Elvis

In general, I don’t like people. People are full of shit, selfish, upright walking pigs, always trying to further their nefarious agendas. Instead friends, I have acquaintances that can be utilized for personal or business purposes. The main difference: I am forthright in my intentions. This is a very important distinction between a hermit, which describes most of you internet shuffle board motherfuckers, and a person (“The Fly”) who plays the game of life  as if it was a fucking chess board.

I will beat you senseless with a Panamanian sugarcane, straight from the ever ominous “Darien Gap.”

Many of my old colleagues crave the attention of others. And, like dogs, they beg for “social bones”, by way of depraved parties and/or internet communique. Let me tell you something right now: avoid such people as if they were the bubonic plague itself.

As for Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. [[GS]] :

Next to Apple Inc. [[AAPL]] , there is no better institution in the United States. All of the conspiracy bullshit surrounding Goldman puts a smile on my face; because, like “The Fly,” those fuckers aren’t interested in making friends. As a man with large testicles and excess testosterone, I am proud of the crazy bastards from Goldman, even if they killed Elvis.

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Seasonality Requests

Netflix, Inc. [[NFLX]]

Month Avg Return Years Up Years Down Days Up Days Down Days Unchanged Variance
January 8.216% 5 3 86 75 0 -0.01
February 4.984% 4 4 69 73 1 0.26
March 8.390% 6 1 73 78 2 0.04
April -1.647% 4 3 72 70 3 -0.12
May 3.765% 2 5 70 77 0 -0.01
June 1.010% 4 4 90 80 0 -0.29
July -5.266% 4 4 87 83 0 -0.08
August 0.887% 3 5 83 89 4 -0.21
September 5.496% 7 1 77 87 0 0.03
October 8.910% 5 3 83 94 1 0.27
November 3.316% 5 3 76 85 1 -0.18
December 5.907% 5 3 89 81 0 0.17

Amazon.com, Inc. [[AMZN]]

Month Avg Return Years Up Years Down Days Up Days Down Days Unchanged Variance
January 1.983% 5 8 140 122 0 -0.04
February -3.969% 6 7 136 95 6 -0.52
March 7.002% 9 3 133 128 2 0.04
April 11.366% 8 4 124 122 2 0.55
May 2.105% 7 5 118 134 1 -0.3
June 7.541% 7 6 134 137 5 0.55
July 1.589% 7 6 145 125 5 0.07
August 2.371% 7 6 141 140 3 0
September 12.064% 10 3 133 128 1 -0.16
October 4.348% 7 6 137 151 1 0.42
November 10.545% 9 4 123 140 1 -0.03
December 3.365% 5 8 139 133 3 -0.09

ATP Oil & Gas Corporation [[ATPG]]

Month Avg Return Years Up Years Down Days Up Days Down Days Unchanged Variance
January -7.944% 4 5 93 83 6 0.03
February -3.288% 3 6 79 80 2 -0.08
March 21.842% 5 4 89 105 1 0.37
April 3.624% 5 4 89 93 5 -0.17
May 9.739% 5 4 79 110 2 -0.25
June 4.262% 4 5 86 99 6 -0.01
July -1.317% 3 6 101 87 2 -0.14
August 4.831% 4 5 97 98 4 -0.18
September 4.339% 4 5 90 82 7 -0.4
October 0.797% 4 5 90 104 7 -0.05
November -5.743% 4 5 105 77 1 0.02
December 1.855% 5 4 87 101 2 -0.33

Applied Materials, Inc. [[AMAT]]

Month Avg Return Years Up Years Down Days Up Days Down Days Unchanged Variance
January 9.048% 16 10 202 245 93 0.03
February 6.240% 15 10 203 222 63 0.44
March 1.728% 13 12 230 233 82 -0.14
April 5.071% 15 9 211 215 91 0.43
May 4.454% 13 11 225 227 77 -0.37
June -2.245% 9 16 237 219 78 0.19
July 3.436% 13 12 218 233 79 0.04
August 0.299% 12 12 237 222 93 0.09
September -5.113% 9 16 233 201 73 -0.23
October -1.712% 9 17 240 242 96 -0.33
November 3.275% 16 9 211 229 90 -0.11
December 3.807% 14 11 226 224 99 0.21

Chesapeake Energy Corporation [[CHK]]

Month Avg Return Years Up Years Down Days Up Days Down Days Unchanged Variance
January -0.581% 7 10 172 151 24 -0.01
February 3.708% 11 6 125 160 28 -0.24
March 12.267% 14 3 152 180 38 -0.71
April 7.451% 11 6 140 177 31 -0.49
May 6.616% 9 8 160 166 33 0.26
June 3.414% 6 9 168 167 26 -0.37
July -4.544% 6 11 177 151 27 -0.08
August 5.359% 10 7 176 172 25 0.06
September 5.662% 10 7 155 169 19 -0.23
October 0.752% 8 9 168 183 25 0.08
November 0.082% 8 9 161 167 18 -0.04
December 1.085% 9 8 171 161 28 0.1

Lennox International Inc. [[LII]]

Month Avg Return Years Up Years Down Days Up Days Down Days Unchanged Variance
January 2.730% 5 6 108 110 5 -0.95
February 6.195% 9 2 86 109 6 -0.76
March 0.388% 6 4 104 110 4 -0.1
April 1.288% 5 5 109 93 4 0.46
May 2.761% 4 6 107 103 3 -0.13
June 2.714% 5 5 107 95 11 -0.57
July 4.385% 5 5 100 106 5 1.05
August 0.387% 7 4 126 109 9 -0.26
September -8.497% 2 9 121 94 5 0.27
October -3.362% 4 7 119 118 7 -0.42
November 4.654% 8 3 101 116 8 0.09
December 4.397% 7 4 96 130 6 0.22

Beacon Roofing Supply, Inc. [[BECN]]

Month Avg Return Years Up Years Down Days Up Days Down Days Unchanged Variance
January 5.659% 5 1 58 61 1 0.12
February -2.392% 3 3 54 50 1 0.12
March 8.575% 4 1 49 59 1 0.1
April 2.994% 3 2 47 55 1 -0.05
May 5.841% 4 1 52 51 3 -0.05
June -4.181% 1 4 57 48 3 -0.26
July 2.358% 2 3 53 51 1 0.04
August 5.142% 4 1 58 52 1 -0.03
September -2.139% 2 3 54 46 2 0.13
October -10.668% 0 5 59 51 1 0.14
November -0.463% 3 3 63 56 4 -0.01
December 3.079% 4 2 59 64 4 -0.03

Flotek Industries, Inc. [[FTK]]

Month Avg Return Years Up Years Down Days Up Days Down Days Unchanged Variance
January 5.874% 3 2 50 50 0 0.54
February -5.363% 2 3 50 36 0 0.28
March -14.359% 1 3 45 41 1 0.21
April 28.309% 4 0 31 48 3 -0.39
May -0.150% 2 2 44 40 1 -0.81
June 1.265% 2 2 45 39 2 -0.58
July 1.888% 1 3 45 37 3 0.68
August 7.112% 2 3 52 57 2 1.08
September 0.926% 3 2 51 49 2 0.43
October -3.796% 3 2 53 52 6 0.92
November -17.462% 1 4 58 43 1 0.09
December 2.690% 3 2 49 53 3 0.16

Microvision, Inc. [[MVIS]]

Month Avg Return Years Up Years Down Days Up Days Down Days Unchanged Variance
January 0.037% 7 7 151 123 10 -0.18
February 6.203% 6 7 130 115 13 -0.27
March -0.647% 7 6 131 139 13 -0.13
April 4.534% 7 6 137 124 9 0.48
May 9.015% 10 3 122 144 8 -0.02
June -0.092% 4 9 143 124 11 -0.03
July -4.520% 6 7 148 116 12 0.03
August 2.288% 6 7 145 125 16 -0.02
September 0.273% 5 9 136 129 17 -0.09
October -0.367% 6 7 152 139 21 -0.08
November 3.051% 8 6 145 124 15 -0.5
December 8.013% 7 7 151 131 15 -0.08

Gammon Gold, Inc. [[GRS]]

Month Avg Return Years Up Years Down Days Up Days Down Days Unchanged Variance
January -2.024% 2 5 77 63 0 0.29
February 15.688% 7 0 54 68 2 0.16
March 4.913% 4 2 69 63 0 -0.08
April -5.464% 3 3 71 51 2 0.16
May 5.619% 3 3 61 62 3 0.88
June 0.539% 3 3 69 58 2 -0.31
July -3.409% 3 3 61 61 4 0.1
August -9.690% 1 5 73 57 3 0.23
September 12.314% 4 2 62 59 2 0
October -5.727% 2 5 76 72 7 -0.59
November 8.857% 5 2 57 84 1 -0.82
December 14.807% 4 3 67 78 4 0.84

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