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Dr. Fly

18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.

How to Survive an Economic Zone

I think it’s fair to say many of us wonder or worry about the direction of the country, mostly for our children and grandchildren. We read about history and tend to compare the present to the past in an effort to draw similarities, mostly to feel like we’re living during important times. I think it’s also fair to say these times we’re enduring are different from previous eras, as a great demographic shift occurs behind the vanguard of marxist lunatics.

Some of you who haven’t achieved personal success and feel embittered by the way the cards were stacked for you and might lean towards socialism as a cudgel to punish the corrupt elite. But you’d only be punishing yourselves, by extension. There is no comparison to a free and capitalistic society vs a communist. We’ve achieved more than any nation in the world with this form of finance, which has been perverted in recent years to backstop and catch all of the falling knives to prevent losses at the top.

You can have capitalism and also price controls, especially on items needed for human survival — such as drugs, insurance, and education. How that manifests itself in an economy wholly reliant on keeping the Ponzi scheme going is impossible at once, but perhaps can be achieved slowly over time.

This website is chiefly meant to offer passive investment ideas and notions, also part diary for my missives — but I do not care to commingle my somewhat impassioned political ideas which I share on X here. Reason being: some people just don’t want to hear about it and only have an interest in controlling things within their grasp, which is understandable and also logical.

Many of the older people reading this will already know some of the things I am about to impart — but I’ll say it anyway because I am hoping it’ll hit across the bows of some younger punks who think they know it all.

Some investment maxims.

Position sizes should be thought of like driving a car. When you’re driving 35mph — you can easily control the vehicle and avoid errors or obstacles. However, when speeding 100mph, any small error can be fatal.

You should not have position sizes above 5% of your entire portfolio.

You should not be lured into wild eyed gambits in the hopes of using money to lavish yourselves with expensive items, which is really you trying to attract women. If you’re living your lives for material items, you’re living a vacuous life and will never be happy.

You should not hold stocks down more than 10%. You failed at buying at the right price and do not deserve to own it any longer.

You should not have more than 25% of your portfolio in one sector. There are 8 principle sectors: tech, services, consumer goods, industrials, basic materials, financials, healthcare, and utilities. Understand how you are structured you dumb son of a bitch.

You should not laden your portfolios with small capped stocks or companies that lose money. Think of your portfolios to function if you’re dead. If you cannot envision yourself long a stock 10 years from now — you should not own it now. This of course does not apply to day trading.

You should not have a portfolio with a beta greater than 1.5x. If you do not know what that means, find out. Once you find out, follow my advice.

What is the stated goal here? Financial security. How do we best ensure this? By making more than we spend and by investing our money with the goal of COMPOUNDING RETURNS. What does this mean? I will show you.

If you’re reading and are 27 years of age — let’s see how much you can save over the next 20 years, providing the world doesn’t blow up.

My assumption is you can start off at $10,000 and contribute $1,000 per mo, every month, for the next 20 years. Assuming you can do that and also return 15% per annum, which I feel is more than achievable, your $10,000 will be worth more than $1.3m when you’re my age — providing you with a cushion as you ebb into the retirement years.

I do not mean to dissuade you from making big dicked gains in other investments, getting rich young and enjoying your lives as kings. But I’ve seen way more young men blow the fuck up in a bad way than in a good way and they lose focus of what investing is all about: surviving the economic zone which is cold and dreary, where no one cares about you but your friends, family, and neighbors.

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Closed the Session Extremely Bullish

I had to do it, fully long and with a little leverage into what I expect to be an explosive Monday. I am nearly certain Bitcoin will crash higher and into record highs by Sunday and all of the cool stocks that gapped up today will follow in suit.

I ended the session +90bps, hardened by decades of professional money management to withstand all fires and manage through all eventualities.

I will tell you this, my bias is for oil stocks to start gapping higher soon and all of the shit I am saddled with today might be sold post haste come Monday. On a longer term basis, however, I am very bullish on some of my favorites — like $HOOD, $RUM, $ILMN, $UBER and $CDNS, just to name a few.

I wish you all happy tidings and well wishes. If you lost money this week and find yourselves bedraggled and mired with inextricably losses, find solace in knowing there’s someone out there like me with champion styled wins — PINNED to recourd highs.

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Watching Oils

I pulled myself out of an early hole and have moderate gains and the usual stocks are climbing with one notable exception: oils are leading.

This is especially notable because they’re undervalued and haven’t moved in two years.

And, this is peak time to own them seasonally.

This trade has been a widow maker so I’m not sold on it yet. But I like the idea and am biased towards it.

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Closed Out the Month Middling

I haven’t traded well in the past two weeks and missed out on some of the fun. I know the reason why, as I haven’t been focused on trading. I’ve been trading since a teenager and I did this professionally for 18 years and now fuck around online and trade my own accounts for a living and although I do love it — it gets repetitive. If I apply myself fully and entirely I can achieve dazzling results.

But why should I?

I finished the month +3%, +8.5% for 2024. My buy and hold and reallocate once per month Quant gained 7.9% for the month, now higher by 8.1% for the year and my longer term strategic account gained 10.5% for the month, now up 5.6% for the year.

I tell you these things because those are my pacer rabbits. I should always beat them because I am intuitive, able to respond to events in real time. Those accounts are largely buy and hold. Sure, the strategic are all my best ideas and the Quant is using my algorithms to select stocks — but I have always beat them because when I trade well I trade the best.

But I am not trading well and I know that sounds crazy since I am near RECOURD highs and haven’t posted many losses in quite some time.

 

After all, I have posted just 3 down months in the last 17. Nevertheless, I don’t feel like I am trading well — since I am not executing on the level I want to be and I am missing out on easy trades and generally lackluster. Speaking of which, after the close a holding of mine is plunging on earnings news, $ZS — so it looks like I will be digging myself out from a hole to begin March.

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Fighting with My Nature of Wanting to be a Bear

I knew people back in the 90s who were bears. These people throughout the entire bull run of the late 90s and early 2000’s hated stocks and never wanted to learn about the internet or anything wireless or related to tech. They bought bond and brick and mortar stocks and focused only on the fundamentals.

I was a kid back then and I remember the scorn they had towards me because I was buying and selling stocks that were moving fast and making large commissions. They were mired in misery — but that misery was lifted when it crashed. You should have seen the looks on their faces — a boardroom filled with angry old men telling you they “told you so” and you had “been warned” and now “had to deal with the consequences” stupidity.

Then the market took off again in 2003 and they were, once again, left holding their dicks buying bonds and General Mills Corp. I wasn’t around the boardroom during the 2008 debacle — but I am sure it was more of the same bullshit with the old men up in arms decrying “the end is near” whilst chewing on unlit cigars.

In a sense, I am the old man now — decrying stocks as “rigged” and eagerly awaiting the end of “Pax Americana.” But you must admit — this time is a little different. Admit it. Even so, I am introspective enough to understand this frame of thought has more to do with grappling with the fact that I am getting older, thinking about legacy, dealing with the pangs of decades of wisdom and patterns that repeat and almost always lead to danger.

Anyone who has been trading since the 1990s has undergone some of the worst drawdowns in history, one fucking collapse after the next. I am pretty sure I have PTSD. The younger generation doesn’t know anything but a bull market, only briefly interrupted by the COVID crash. But even that was so quick and the move so violent to the upside, it ended up being a massive windfall for risk takers.

It’s really hard to go against one’s nature. The older I get the more I hate stocks and want them lower. But I fight it everyday and sometimes get lost in memories when I’d tell those old son of a bitches to “fuck yourselves” and “I hope you don’t swallow that cigar and die you old prick.”

I’ve always been really acerbic, a topic for another day.

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Coinbase Shenanigans; Closing Out the Month in Style

What exactly happened at Coinbase this afternoon? All of a sudden, as $BTC crested above $64,000 — the entire platform went offline — showing ZERO balances for customers. When things got “back to normal”, the coin tumbled to under $60,000.

Naturally, I am suspicious of this — especially since living through the Robinhood-Gamestop debacle — where the broker at the behest of Citadel REMOVED the fucking buy option for $GME — leading to a collapse of the shares.

I traded poorly today and finished with some $TZA and $SOXS to augment a portfolio of low beta stocks. My risk is very low because I have very little interest into risking too much into the final day of trade.

My MTD returns for my accounts are as follows:

You may not believe it and you may not like it — but I will make 100% this year.

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BITCOIN IS GOING TO RECOURD HIGHS

There are few certainties in life.

Democrats are mostly criminals, including the ordinary citizens who abet them.

Republicans will whore themselves out for any vote and are mostly comprised of sexual deviants who are under threat of blackmail.

$BTC is going to $70,000

Any questions?

I can hear the peanut gallery shuffle with indignation as I write this. That’s a 15% move from here. I have been telling you to buy $BTC since mid $20,000s and yet there are some of you still, in 2024, beholden to the dollar because the Federal Reserve and Jamie Dimon said so.

I have news for you, fucked faces, break out of your boomer brainwashing and see the world for what it is: an absolute mess.

I always like to see the Bitcoin haters squirm as they attempt to convince others why it’s so bad. They’ll delve on about how we are all being tricked and fooled, cajoled even, into an even worse situation than the dollar and how $BTC is just another government scheme to control you. It’s like you’re retarded, know it, and still pretend to be normal.

This entire edifice of LGTBQ governance is predicated on the US dollar being printed AD HOC, and people in S American and Africa converting their shit currencies into it so that the inflationary aspects printing money could be negated. It’s another form of colonialism, the worst kind of colonialism — since we get all of the benefits of their labor without ever having to lift a finger to help them. The dollar supremacy is the eye of Sauron for the GLOBOHOMO. If you can break it — you can be free. If not, you will continue to live under its yoke.

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FUCKED BY THE MOON

I was so happy after the close last night when $LUNR jimmied higher by 5% in the early after hours session. I went online into Stocklabs and talked shit, boasted about my psychic powers and then told everyone to fuck off. I thought I was the shit.

Then by the time I went to the gym, the stock went back to flat. But that then, $BTC was going up and I had some $CIFR to assuage me and I felt really good about it.

Fast forward to today — futures MCPLUNGED lower and $LUNR cascaded at the open down as much as 10%. Irate about the whole ordeal and how I didn’t even believe we went to the moon anyway, I waited for a small uptick to -7.5% and then sold.

Shortly thereafter the stock rocketed to green and now it just sits there with its stupid face mocking me.

Instead of racing to the moon and popping champagne corks into the faces of friends and family, I’m bogged down for 60bps. I made a brief foray into the down 20s but really it just seems I’m doomed for a little pulling back. In the big scheme of things, these things happen.

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SHORTS SELLERS WILL BE ANNIHILATED

I really hate to have to do it — but it’s better it be me than them. I will personally skin alive the shorts and then toss them into open vats of fire, pure fire, in order to purify them before they go to heaven. I am sure the bears will go to heaven — because they mean well and only want the corrupt and the transgendered bulls to be punished with the force of the earth and the seas.

I angrily closed +46bps, after a brief unfortunate sojourn with the fucking moon, vis a vie $LUNR. I lost some money in it on a trade and it capstoned my returns for the session — forcing me to claw my way back up to a sowmewhat respectable gain. I have just 10% cash into tomorrow and I bought $LUNR back — because fuck the moon and all of the rovers attempting to ride on top of it. ALL ROVERS henceforth will be capsized and tipped over by invisible hands or ghosts. HOWEVER, I will make money in this fucking $LUNR tomorrow.

Everything else is pleasant. My health is very fine and my mood is most excellent.

Good day.

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BUSTING LOOSE AGAIN

By the looks of the indices, you’d think today was a moribund day, with the Dow off by 150, S&P flat and NASDAQ barely up. But beneath the veneer of a subtle tape is risk of a ribald nature — all taking place in smaller capped piece of shit stocks.

Inside Stocklabs, the pennies are +1.5%, whilst the tera caps are flat. The chasm has finally favored the smalls and this is bringing out all of the degenerates to swing from their branches again, naked and with bananas in tow, in search for more bananas.

Heavily shorted stocks are +4.3%, followed by life sciences +3% and overall High Beta stocks are leading the way +2.5%.

I am being cautious, +42bps with a hedged portfolios. My hedges are short semis and the NASDAQ against some small capped stocks. In my experience, the final salvo of all rallies occurs during risk on of this nature. That doesn’t mean the rally will end today but it’s going to end soon.

You just sit there and watch!

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