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Dr. Fly

18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.

I Broke a Rule Today — Because We’re Going Higher Soon

I’m down more than 10% on my stupid fucking PIR position. I hate the store and hope it dies. I am only long for a trade, a trade that has gone wrong ever since I bought the damn thing. But I’m fairly convince this rout in high growth and the overall weakness in the market will end soon.

Aside from the fact the Turkey Gods are merely a month and change away, a joyous time of year when people shove copious amount of meat down there necks — washed down with thick brown gravy. It’s important to remember that things never last, not even horrible horribles. As such, it would bemuse you to know that I am thinking about heading back into SAAS soon.

We’re down 3 months in a row, losses in the -25% range. In the history of SAAS, we’ve only has 3 other declines of this magnitude and each time, after the 3rd month, the fucking stocks rose like wild bastards. The worst of the declines happened in March of 2014, a grisly affair — down 36%. I got fucking RAPED in that market and can still feel the stings of battle. But do not fear my melancholy faggots, the time is close to when bears get their heads sawed off by longs.

Plans for the weekend entail a sojourn to Chapel Hill, maybe an eatery or two in Raleigh. If you should happen to come across me there, please, no autographs.

I shed some gains in my trading, made 22bps in my Quant, an overall nothing-burger type of day. Best case, markets plunge out Monday and we buy the dip, gloriously.

HAGW.

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High Growth Stocks Shattered to Pieces

SAAS-FAGS have been annihilated and removed from the board of play.

SAAS Basket

Also, my Bubble Basket in Exodus — torn to pieces

Not much analysis needed here — this is merely an acceleration of what has been burning slowly. Ever since the We Work debacle, high valuation stocks have been getting hammered. Now if this is anything like 2014, the last time SAAS stocks were ripped, you will see a rotation into other areas of growth — but it won’t ruin the market. I have a hard time believing we’re toast here. As a matter of fact, this is probably a good time to buy.

You know how the old saying goes: “Markets do not bottom on Fridays.” Ergo, lower we go…for now.

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ALERT: $JNJ RECALLS BABY POWDER AFTER CANCER CAUSING ASBESTOS FOUND IN TALC

Every parent has used JNJ talcum powder for their children when they were babies. Little did you know, fuckers, you were breathing in cancer. How fucking nice.

JNJ has repeatedly denied that their talc had cancer causing asbestos in it, until now. Even with this disclosure, they leave open the caveat that it could be, in fact, a counterfeit or fraudulent sample. I suppose some fucking mess lawyer snuck into the JNJ factories and dropped some asbestos in it. This is more House Johnson muddying the waters. Make no mistake, baby powder is fucking toxic.

Johnson & Johnson initiates voluntary recall in the United States of a single lot of its Johnson’s Baby Powder in response to FDA test indicating the presence of sub-trace levels of chrysotile asbestos contamination (no greater than 0.00002%) in samples from a single bottle purchased from an online retailer (136.17) Despite the low levels reported and in full cooperation and collaboration with the FDA, JJCI is initiating this voluntary recall of Lot #22318RB of Johnson’s Baby Powder, from which the tested sample was taken. In parallel, Johnson & Johnson Consumer Inc. (JJCI) has immediately initiated a rigorous, thorough investigation into this matter, and is working with the FDA to determine the integrity of the tested sample, and the validity of the test results. At this early stage of the investigation, JJCI: Cannot confirm if cross-contamination of the sample caused a false positive. Cannot confirm whether the sample was taken from a bottle with an intact seal or whether the sample was prepared in a controlled environment. Cannot confirm whether the tested product is authentic or counterfeit.

This via Asbestos dot com

The term “asbestos” refers to six different minerals. The term “asbestiform” refers to minerals with a crystal-like structure that resembles asbestos and shares properties with asbestos. Examples of asbestiform minerals include erionite, richterite, winchite and taconite.

Geologically, talc and asbestos can naturally form alongside each other. Not every talc deposit is contaminated with asbestos. The ones that are contaminated tend to contain tremolite or anthophyllite, both forms of amphibole asbestos, rather than chrysotile, which is the serpentine form of asbestos.

Like talc, the mineral vermiculite commonly forms alongside asbestos and asbestiform minerals. The infamous vermiculite mine in Libby, Montana, was contaminated with tremolite asbestos and the asbestiform minerals richterite and winchite.

Whether a particular talc product contains asbestos has everything to do with its geologic source. If the talc deposit contains asbestos or asbestiform minerals, the products made with that talc are likely contaminated with asbestos.

Also, just recently, the fuckers lost another case — GUILTY of cancer causing baby powder. How insidious is this?

Health care giant Johnson & Johnson suffered another major legal defeat last month when a New Jersey jury sided with four people who claimed the company’s talcum powder products contained asbestos and caused their cancers.

The verdict was handed up in a courtroom just miles from Johnson & Johnson’s corporate headquarters in New Brunswick, New Jersey. The jury ordered the company to pay plaintiffs $37.2 million in compensatory damages. The same jury is expected to consider punitive damages later this month, according to a Bloomberg report.

Douglas Barden, 65, David Etheridge, 57, D’Angela McNeill-George, 41, and Will Ronning, 46, said they developed mesothelioma after inhaling asbestos allegedly present in Johnson’s Baby Powder and Shower-to-Shower talcum powder products. The group claimed they were repeatedly exposed to the cancer-causing minerals through the talc-based powders their parents used on them when they were children.

That’s right — they got mesothelioma because their parents used baby powder on them when they were babies. We need a hard reset.

JNJ is off by 3.2%.

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These Are the Very Best Stocks

These are the top rated large cap stocks rated by Sharpe ratio in Exodus. Think of it as a longer term technical indicator. These are the best stocks, not just because they go up and everyone likes them, but because I said so.

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Another Great Day for America

Ladies and gentlemen, and I give you this message with the utmost respect and gratitude — QUIT BEING SUCH PUSSIES. There are times in the market when I’ve dogged my account down and felt as if nothing could salvage my poor trading and all hope was lost, shattered against the hard rocks of fate. All of my sins had culminated into an account spiraling lower, a cosmic punishment of sorts — custom tailored for me.

But all of that is of course bullshit.

There isn’t a such thing as ‘fate’ and your trades have nothing to do with the amount of killings you’ve partaken in. I want you to understand something, so listen to me very quietly: TAKE RESPONSIBILITY FOR YOUR OWN ACTIONS. Gone are the days of blaming others or circumstances for your condition. Sure, you grew up without privilege and didn’t have the Ivy League experience like some of your fuckhead neighbors. That can be a strength, not a deficit, depending on how you look at it.

First thing you need to do is stop trying to get rich trading. It will never happen. Use a diversified approach to compound returns, loyally add to said account, and try not to micro-manage it. Your trading account should be disciplined and position sizes should be around 5%. I know what you’re thinking: “but I want to get rich trading.”

STFU you bitch.

You want to get better and you want to fulfill a need, a gambling itch. Who the fuck are you kidding? Trade small, have fun, get better, bet big only during times of extreme confidence.

Does this strike you as the type of market that you should go ‘all in’ on? Probably not.

We’re heading into the colder months of the year, typically a good time of year for stock trades. Live to fight another day and cut those fucking losses quick. Do these things and I promise you 10 years from today you will thank me.

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Get Positioned Ahead of the Presidential Elections

I remember when Kerry was trying to unseat Bush and I was buying stem cell stocks because that was an important discussion back then. Those fucking stock soared. During Bush’s first soirée into the Presidency, it was all about military stocks, almost as if people knew we’d be going to war for the next 20 years.

During the Trump run it was coal. I was a coal man and those fucking bastards ran good and hard.

With Obama, and pardon for this being scattered all over without a chronological vibe to it, healthcare stocks powered higher. On the Mitt Romney side of things, COAL again pushed higher.

This go around, we’ll get more wall talk and lack of wars from Trump. But on the democratic side, we might get lots of healthcare talk and possibly some Chinese dick-sucking jargon, although that’s a tough one. But at a minimum, we might get some daylight in healthcare, since a universal plan would mean more customers for providers and MOAR drugs to be sold.

BIG FAN of stocks here, nearly 100% long in my trading account now. My position sizes are always 5%, anymore more is commensurate with gambling.

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Bullshit BREXIT Deal Reached; Futures Rise

All you need to know is Nigel Farage hates the deal and wants Boris dead, so it must be good for the status quo. Ordinary billionaires making ordinary billions.

Nasdaq futures are +55 and Elijah Cummings is fucking dead. Did Trump execute him? What happened to Epstein? Where are the tapes, Sir? Have you no shame?

Yesterday was just about the worst day ever for SAAS stocks and today it looks like they’ll bounce. I’m sorry if the fucking market isn’t simple for you fucking morons to seamlessly make money in. I’m sorry that this game you pretend to know how to play involves losses and not everyone can perform at an exemplary level like Le Fly.

I am sorry.

Sorry not sorry.

Morgan Stanley beat. Netflix is soaring. Trump is out of his fucking gourd. The kids are vaping, collapsing their lungs. No one likes IBM.

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DEATHDAY FOR SAAS

We can blame it on WDAY, but truth is this was brewing for weeks. The timing got delayed and many of you got fucking smoked out trying to short the sector in late September. But the end is now and here for your margin accounts. Look at these fucking stocks roll.

You fucking troll didn’t see it coming, reactionary fucktards only able to describe events after they’ve occurred. Sure I had some SAAS stocks, but was long into the rally and my losses were mitigated.

NTNX +2%
(MDB -11.4%)
(TWLO -1.7%)
(TEAM -4.9%)

Literally nothing. Since summer, my trading account is +18%, smashing your fucking face into the curb and stomping your teeth out. Do not fuck with me, unless of course you want to upgrade to annual; then feel free.

It’s a very odd market, weird rotation, and has been that way for months. The non-stop gyration of fear and greed, fueled by geopolitical events, isn’t easy. If you’re having trouble trading, find comfort in know that I am the reigning champion Master Ace Fucking Trader out there and my hit rate is only 65% since May. Past rallies have permitted me to go on 30 for 30 winning streaks, but this trading ‘fag-box’ has been brutal and foreboding — but I’m persevering where other fold like cheap fucking hookers.

“The Fly” is the truth, people. Drop out of school, tell your parents to fuck off, trade for a living, BUY MY BOOK.

Ciao.

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MED SCHOOL STUDENTS: DROP OUT OF SCHOOL AND TRADE

Think about it. You’re over there wasting time hitting the books, trying to become an alchemist — when all of the real money is being made in stocks. You can and should drop out of Med school and take the money your parents set aside for you and fucking trade that shit, man. I mean, you could simply walk around the house in slippers and a robe, trade for a few hours, and then chill out. Forget about the hellscape days of studying all night and doing reports. FUCK THAT. Do what you love to do and trade, bro.

Question from the Peanut Gallery.

“What if my parents get mad at me for wanting to trade for a living?”

Listen bro, I hate to tell you this — but FUCK YOUR PARENTS. This is your life and you need to separate yourself from negative influences. Look at me, I have goosebumps telling you this, but divorce your wife, ditch your parents, drop out of school, and CRUSH IT.

Also, buy my book.

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Analyst Day For $WDAY Ruins SAAS Sector

Last night WDAY offered guidance during their analyst day and people fucking hated it. The subsequent result has been bloodshed this morning, as people shimmy the fuck out of high valuation software name and into retail shit-houses like PIR and BBBY.

BMO came away from WDAY Rising with neutral incremental views. They remain positive on WDAY opportunities in financial solutions, though they believe that a gradual slowdown in HCM could limit consolidated growth, particularly given the relative size differential, with HCM being about 81% of subscription revenues. They believe that management signaled that M&A could play a meaningful role to generate new revenue/market opportunities. They think valuation is reasonable though not inexpensive given growth metrics; Market Perform, $225 tgt.

Without question, high valuation names have been adversely affected by the We Work IPO debacle. There is now a disconnect between private valuations and public. As such, the sectors with the highest valuations, namely SAAS, have been sold. This of course is also the case due to a slowing economy. But I am not sold on this idea entirely, since software creates high productivity and also opportunities for cost savings. Nevertheless, this is where we are now. As such, I sold out of my SAAS names today.

The sector is off sharply, nearly 3% for the session.

The best sector in the market continues to be residential construction, an obvious winner with rates sinking and the price of real estate near record highs.

Here are the top industries ranked by Sharpe ratios now.

Tough tape for tech and healthcare. If you’re managing accounts now and don’t know where to go, go to cash. If you must be invested, try diversifying you fucking brainlet. We’re in a rate sensitive environ, so gain exposure to industries that offer yield, such as the one’s on the list above.

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