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Dr. Fly

18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.

THERE WILL BE A BLOODBATH!

We’ve been waiting for a comeuppance for some time now and have wistfully game theoried all possible outcomes and eventualities. At some point, the free ride will end and the sins will come due and prices will be paid. There is a very static compression amidst the status quo now, buoyed mostly by their arrogance and coddled lives.

I have taken it upon myself to almost always peer out into the future in search for societal collapse. I’ve been right in 0 out of my last 100 predictions but hope that this time will be different.

If you’re content with the way things are inside your cul de sac — exercise some third order thinking and game shop America in 2100, as your great grandchildren attempt to escape the cannibal hordes razing the American flatlands in search of meat.

At any rate, it’s not your job to do anything, nor mine. We are just voices in the wind, which can be picked up by or serve to inspire decision makers who can execute change. We are not war lords or members of a militia and do not have real power, other than what has been given to us by God. In this economic zone there is a bull market and that bull market continues unabated. To stop the GLOBOHOMO — you need a strategic loss of kinetic nature to occur, in order to truly expose how incompetent they are. Most people are happy with their 401ks and their gay lives and are entertained. Only hard times can solve the disease racking the country and in order to get there — no one will like it and everyone will pine for the days when our biggest problems were TRANNIES on beer cans and black women aspiring to become pilots. NEVERTHELESS, this crucible is all but a forgone conclusion and it’s going to happen, as sure as I am sitting here.

I shed 58bps for the session, closed the day leveraged long and bullish into tomorrow.

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Rotation Continues

Observe the winning industries versus the losers in the past two weeks.

It’s very possible we are in the 2nd or 3rd inning of a run beginning in basic materials, which would jive with the season trends for the industry the past 30 years. To capitalize, one would need to forgo the $NVDA’s of the world in exchange for boring stocks like $OXY, hoping the timing is optimal.

I’m having an off day again and I’m running on just 3hrs sleep — but I’m pretty sure this is the path I want to take this week.

Favorites include names like $FCX $OXY $ADM and $NUE. I want to be long upstream and downstream oils, metals, and perhaps chems. I’ll try to avoid small capped tech and definitely cast off biotechs. In addition to basic materials, now might be a good time to position into old man/ low beta/ high dividend stocks in an attempt to front run investors clamoring for higher yields.

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NO HANGOVER

I had a rather sober St. Paddy’s day with some company from NJ. We did all sort of things this weekend, including but not limited to regaling local SLAVE PLANTATIONS with a person eager for conflict, arguing with the tour guide regarding the accuracy of the history and the tour. At one point during this event, I wanted to drop out of the slave quarters’ windows — but I bore through it and made it out ok with lots of laughs to enjoy on the way home.

It seems the older I get the less interested I am in “getting drunk”, only because doing so means I feel like shit the next day. I had 2 beers and a Boston Sour and that’s it.

I’m down 30bps early going and although the NASDAQ is up — I do not like this tape. CLARIFICATION: I do not hate it either. I am indifferent and find myself wanting t take less risk in order to wade through the tape, waiting for resolution. I feeeeeeel the market is going t churn a bit here and the only thing I’m excited about are my holdinging in Solana, $SOL. I’m + 188% from my basis and feel the coin is going up forever. All of the $BTCFAGS are now buying $SOL — propelling it to new highs. It should be noted $250 is all but a foregone conclusion.

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Closed the Week Pinned to RECOURD Highs

Sirs–

The Nasdaq shed more than 1% this week and losses were FESTOONED across the landscape.

I closed the week with gains of 1.5%, in spite of drawing down 120bps the past two days. It all gets so tiresome and monotonous. I will come back with a full chest of courage next week and propel myself to even higher record highs.

My opinion for cryptos heading into the weekend is for a sell off, consolidating the recent gains, before the ultimate sojourn to $100,000

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Rotation Might Be Underway

Small caps are beating the large caps for a change, with a flat Russell and down 180 NASDAQ. Underneath the hood you can clearly see rotation underway, from tech to basic materials — but it isn’t a bold move. This type of move is largely unimportant on a slow Friday afternoon.

Even stil, I managed to escape the wrath of the market, preserving my account from losses — now sitting +10bps. I don’t feel easy with a portfolio filled with basic materials, which is the point. Most people miss out on rotations because no one wants to sell what is working in favor for some laggards. It takes time and foresight to truly capture a revolving move.

Is it happenng?

IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN, but I am open to the idea.

I do not have anxiety. My pink levels are very low, since my health is most excellent and my demeanor is both poised and collected.

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Going Small into Friday

I’m sort of content where I am now, not trying to rock the boat and make a FOOL out of myself in a marker rife with tumult. With +1.75% for the week, I have no reason to be a hero ahead of the weekend, a weekend which is marked with one of my favorite holidays: St. Paddy’s day. It is a day when I inebriate myself amidst boiled meats, potatoes, and cabbage — sing the songs of Ireland and perhaps smoke a cigar.

It should be noted, I do not condone recreational drinking, especially for young men trying to find their station in life. But on occasion, it is acceptable, providing you’re not an idiot who gets hooked on vices.

I closed the session down 90bps, heavily leaning into oil stocks — 45% cash. I was tempted to long $BITX and other higher beta stocks down 10% today. HOWEVER, even though the market rallied into the close — high beta risky stocks lost 3.8% for the session and the VIX spiked. Whilst this is usually a head fake, as the market seems to always trade up — this time it is accompanied by a mega spike in rates. It is possible you are staring down the barrel of a loaded shot gun at the present and might find yourselves entreated to morning grape shot to your fucking face — wiping that smug grin CLEAN of your odious face.

Ciao.

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IS IT TIME TO ROTATE HEAVILY INTO A VAT OF OIL?

Yes.

Seasonal trends command my attention. We have Brent above $85 — wars looming all over the place, and Joe Fucking Biden mucking everything up. I read the fucking Houthis of all people took possession hypersonic missiles. If true, spot rates for tankers are about to explode higher. I think it’s fair to say, given the recent run in tech, a rotation into basic materials would be welcomed by all — especially since it is by far the most undervalued segment of the market.

I’m already in but will accentuate my basic material holdings before the bell.

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Don’t like the Pin Action

I stepped aside on $BITX because I don’t like the $BTC action today, as the major cryptos give way to some of th alts. It looks like $BTC might come in a little here.

I also stepped aside in most of my positions in trading, save a few, now resting with 75% cash and losses of 39bps. On down days I aim to limit the losses and try again later. This I will do and perhaps we’ll be saved later on by a 20 candle in a row buying spree.

I did have a hedge but I closed it out for quick gains. I’ll endure some further drawdowns before deciding to short the market again.

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MORE RECOURD HIGHS — WHEN TO SELL?

We are seeing nominal rotation today, out of MAG7 stocks and into commodity related names — off the back of sharply higher WTI. We also continue to see vagrant degenerate piece of shit stocks buoyant in a sea of refuse. I’d argue this market should be sold — but I’d probably be wrong. I hate proffering bad or ill timed advice.

No, we are betwixt a mania of many sorts: geopolitically, nationally, commodity, real estate, currency, and equities. The wild eyed shift out of dollars and into Bitcoin/other cryptos speaks to a narrative of risk. Markets do not top at the highs, as stupid as that might sound. Before an eventually move lower, we’ll get some distribution and some truly volatile sessions marked by and accentuated with fear. There isn’t any fear in this tape — just a lot of odious kids running about telling you to “choose rich.”

When to sell?

This is never an easy answer but if you need structure — base your sales off allocation percentages. If your allocation in a stock is 5% and it doubled in price and is now 9 or 10%, sell it down to 5% again.

Overall models that are for long term should abide by similar allocation models and cash levels should not be higher than 10% with stocks at RECORD HIGHS. You will never time the top so stop trying.

As for my trading — another RECOURD high +111bps, stacked with 33% cash and a 12% $BITX position — eagerly awaiting a late night adventure higher for Bitcoin. I’m off to a very good start for 2024, +14%. Do not feel envy or look at me with any varying degrees of animosity or animus — for my talents in the stock market are meaningless fribble and pose as nothing but a reminder that trading stocks is an absurd avocation and an even more absurd career path. NEVERTHELESS, I beat on, backs against the current.

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Cryptos Are Not Done Going Higher

In an effort to be transparent about my crypto holdings, I’ll disclose some brief thoughts.

I’m not really a fan of alt-coins but believe they will go higher due to the wave of bullishness in the space now. I do believe $BTC will rest at $75k, en route to $100k. Humans love to fixate on big round numbers. I own $BTC from $26,000s.

I also own $BITX (2x $BTC) in stock accounts.

The only other crypto that I own is Solana and I will keep buying it every month for the balance of 2024. I own it from the $60s and then high $120s and would buy here. I have it staked at $COIN for 5.01% APY.

I know many people hate cryptos and will never buy it and I’m not here to convince you otherwise, but to remind you that it is an asset, just like anything else. I am certain people loved Lehman and Bear before they collapsed to zero and I am sure many a scam stock rode waves in the past making people millions of dollars before ultimate demise. I used to harbor deep hatred for asset classes I was unfamiliar with, which is a form of cope for either missing out or some form of latent jealousy. We have one life to live and within that life we can ruin it in may different ways, chiefly by way of financial collapse.

I try my best and I never risk too much and hope that my instincts and choices lead to success.

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