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Dr. Fly

18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.

Happy Friday: $4 Trillion in Losses Achieved Since September!

Congratulations stockTARDS. You’ve managed to bid this market up to vaudeville heights, only to quickly abscond with said gains and now you’re trying to justify what you’re seeing in front of your fucking faces.

BEAR MARKET TRADING and the market has shed more than $4 trillion in value since September. According to BofA, equityFAGS fled stocks en masse last week to the tune of $39 billion — a new record.

Aside from the issues with stocks, there’s the unfathomable concern in the high yield markets — an ongoing fuckery of monumental proportions. Speaking of which, an ‘influential’ analyst just took down estimates on AAPL by 20%.

Here are the details.

Slashing iPhone shipment estimate for the first quarter 2019 by 20 percent to a range of 38 million to 42 million (previous forecast was range of 47 million to 52 million)

He estimates 2018 iPhone shipments of 205 million to 210 million.

2019 iPhone shipments will decline 5- to 10-percent from 2018 to a range of 188 million to 194 million
But Kuo’s note is titled, “2019 iPhone shipments likely to be under 190 million units.” That would fall well short of the current consensus analyst estimate of 212 million iPhone units shipped for the calendar year 2019, according to FactSet.

The analyst, known for having close ties to Apple suppliers, cites lower demand for the iPhone XR, the new more affordable iPhone.

“The increase in orders of legacy iPhone models cannot offset the decline of XR and XS series shipments because of the low season impact,” he adds.

What are we to do? Well, I’m gonna get lit up in my stocks and gold today, only buoyed by my TLT position. My quant account will fall in line with the market. I am not immune to the pangs of agony and the horrors of a market, quite possibly, on the precipice of explicit and irredeemable disaster. I am open to the idea of all this ending, unceremoniously, and without pause. I have cash and will chase momentum to the downside, and hopefully I will be fortunate enough to catch the break. The recent trend has been buy intra-day dips, sell intra-day rips — with an acute overnight bias to the downside. In other words, if you’re shorting at the open, you’re most likely going to lose. But if you hold until Monday on the long side, you’re also setting up for capital losses.

It’s a hard market, no doubt. Do not get discouraged by the vacillation, for it too will end one day, soon revealing a very easy to read trend.

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Here’s What You Need to Be Worried About

I’ve been compiling the data and parsing over this bond situation and want to remind you this is where it will all end. The series of events to come will start in the corporate bond market, leveraged loans, CLOs — things of that nature. ZH has a great article tonight highlighting the blow up in the leveraged loan market.

Again, there is ~$10 trillion in corporate debt now, about double from 2008 — much of which will need to be refinanced within the next two years. We are already seeing the stress rip apart high yield prices — and more specifically the BBB market — which has been torn to shreds with animalistic vigor.

After that freezes up, the crisis will move swiftly like a warm summer breeze into the pensions, both private and public. Their coverage ratios will get so low — they’ll need to be bailed out. We’ll get to the $1.2 in student loans another night.

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You will rue the moment you leveraged long inside of your bullshit Robinhood accounts. Let this be a stern reminder to all of you out there: MARKETS DO NOT BOTTOM ON FRIDAYS.

China missed on various economic data points, effectively fucking futures. Boy do I wish I had the internal fortitude to hold onto TVIX.

Industrial output in November grew 5.4 percent from a year ago, lower than the 5.9 percent analysts in a Reuters poll predicted. That figure was 5.9 percent in October.

Retail sales rose 8.1 percent in November, lower than the 8.8 percent the analysts expected. November retail sales growth was down from 8.6 percent in October.

Fixed asset investment rose 5.9 percent from January to November, slightly higher than the 5.8 percent the economists had forecast. FAI rose 5.7 percent from January to October.

Dow futures are -188, gold flat, bonds sharply higher. The US 10yr is -0.55%.

Believe me, I know my opinions are changing on a minute by minute basis. The reason for the uncertainty and asinine trading is because we’re at the bottom of a channel, a dangerous place to be during Xmas and in the midst of economic turmoil. To my credit, I’ve traded small and haven’t let anything move more than 5% in any direction. I am trading like an absolute bozo the clown and I know it. But my financial future is not and has never been in jeopardy.

In my trading account, I am 25% cash, 15% TLT, 25% precious metals, 35% equities.

Prepare for a bastard day of trading. I have just two appointments in The Capstone Programme tomorrow, so I’ll be around most of the day in Exodus (get your free trials now) — teaching those who need to be told how to comport oneself in the midst of a ruinous market environ.

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Fuck off CNBC. I don’t care what Jim Chanos is shorting. Also, I don’t care, at all, what Coca Cola is doing. I hope that company dies in a fucking fire.

I thought I was being edgy when I bought TVIX today. I made it a large position and two hours later sold it for a 4% loss. This is an ordinary routine of mine, losing large sums of money in VIX products. God knows why the fuck I keep doing it, when the odds of winship is effectively zero.

My GE position purchased today — DOWN.

Most of my tech stocks purchased yesterday — DOWN.

My only respite was gold and gold miners. They did well, but I’m getting impatient and I am sick and tired of being led by the nose into vats of acid. I am sick and tired of trading poorly and limiting my experience to small sums of dollars. I’ve been heavy cash for more than a month and it has saved me countless dollars; but for the love of Christ — I am built to trade fast and with energy, and without fear. I need a direction. Listen to me now — I NEED OUT OF THE FAGBOX now.

The small caps are below trend line and on the precipice of a large leg lower.

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Hedging in Case of DISASTER

I’m hemming and hawing a lot, meandering about the house in search of inspiration. I bought some TVIX, a 10% position, here, in spite of being constructively optimistic here, eagerly awaiting market grandeur.

The hedge is for complete and total breakdown of this trend, back down to the lows. It’s a fair trade, but not if you’re naked. I have clothes on and plenty of cash left (25%) and have bountiful gains to cushion this nonsense I’ve recently partaken in.

My rationalization is end of year trickery coupled with an asinine tape. Up, down, up, down, down, down, up, up, down — a recipe for disaster.

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Markets Give it Up, Chop in the FAGBOX Persists

What a frustrating market to be in, right lads?


This is a wonderful tape. Get the losses out of the way — humble yourselves upon the altar of a market in flux. It’s never easy to trade the chop, especially at the bottom of a channel. It’s possible we blow thru and fade into oblivion — but it’s not likely — fuckers.

Here we are, important men of industry, rich and thin, beautifully BARRELING towards Xmas festivities. This isn’t the occasion, nor the time, for a market crash. Check in with me in January and I will side with your bearish bets. I do believe markets are near disaster and only a miracle can save it.

If you’re shorting stocks now, after the action of the past three days, you deserve to die.

If you’re heavily long stocks here, after the action of the past two months, you deserve to die.

What is a gentleman to do?

Trade with both honor and decorum. Do it small, like the size of your cocks. I am in a 35% cash position, 15% TLT, a bunch of gold. Only ~30% is allocated towards stocks and I intend to increase that level, should technicals improve.

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JP Morgan Upgrades $GE — Merry Fucking Xmas

This is a very, very significant upgrade. Steve Tusa from JPM has been bearish on GE since $30. He nailed the downside in the stock and has now upgraded it. Enough of the negativity. It is time to purchase shares of GE, barreling fat and greasy into the Xmas season.

“We are upgrading GE to Neutral and removing it from the Analyst Focus List as a short idea as we now see a more event-driven, balanced risk reward at current levels,” Tusa reasoned. “Key to the story, in our view, is the outcome of the “known unknowns” in near term, which are better understood and around which the debate is more balanced, as opposed to being overlooked by most bulls in the past.”

The stock is surging in pre-market, which should bode well for bond holders and the fucktards worrying about high yield. Separately, I bought some GE in the pre-market at $7.50.

Let the squeeze begin.


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HOW DARE HE! Trump Says He Might Intervene in Huawei Criminal Case In Order to Broker China Trade Deal

Futures have reversed lower this morning — for reasons that are a bit opaque to me at the moment. While reading the morning news, this little fucking gem caught my attention.

When asked about the CFO of Huawei being detained, brought up on charges against the state for violating the sanctimonious Iranian sanctions — Trump, with all his gall, said this.

“If I think it’s good for the country, if I think it’s good for what will be certainly the largest trade deal ever made — which is a very important thing — what’s good for national security — I would certainly intervene if I thought it was necessary.”

And the response is outrage.

Back in the U.S., Senator Richard Blumenthal said at a Senate hearing on Chinese espionage that he was worried about Trump’s comment as it made it look like U.S. law enforcement was “a tool of either trade or political or diplomatic ends of this country.”

In response, Assistant Attorney General John Demers affirmed that the Justice Department is not “a tool of trade.”

“What we do at the Justice Department is law enforcement. We don’t do trade,” Demers said.

With those comments we can conclude that Trump probably had no idea this was going to happen. The actors involved here at pretending like this is just another criminal probe, no fucking big deal. It sounds to me, frankly, like there are elements inside of the government interested in fucking with China and preventing a deal.

The rule of law is an ass, subjective, and changeable — wholly political and disgusting. You can go back to pretending we’re not a banana republic, no different from the shithole countries around the globe — only with a lot more pomp and pageantry.

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Just shut the fuck up.

The comments section always gets stupid whenever markets dislocate. I’ve got a new crop of fucktards, a generation of spoiled rotten reprobates who’ve never seen a bear market before trying to tell me, the man in the fucking time machine, how to comport myself during periods of crisis.

HELLO — I was fucking born for these days, having toiled in the sewers of Brooklyn before it was gentrified. I’d walk to school in the coldest weather imaginable with a broken book bag, and holes in my speakers, into the horse trails of shit, mud, and wild animals. My life has been a series of incidents and accidents of the biblical scale, only bemused by periods of excess, but uncomfortable with success.

Down markets are my forte. You’ve only read about them in books.

Futures are sharply higher this evening. We’ve got follow thru underway on the reversal hammer from two days ago. The close this evening was just fine and STFU about the weakness. The market has crashed in recent weeks. Accept a +165 day as a good alternative to -500.

I allocated 25% into tech stocks before the bell. Expect winship in the A.M., followed by a stern chastising to never offer me financial advice again.


How about buying them financial literature from the good Dr., as well as RARE ART on the covers? I’ll probably raise the price to $1,000 one day to ensure limited supply of these works of art support absurd prices. I imagine one day these books will be traded at auction houses for EXTREME prices. Act now and become a better person for it.

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Bought into the Bell — God Have Mercy on My Soul

I bought MU, PAYC, TWTR, APPF and ZEN into the bell — all 5% positions. Couple that with an earlier purchase of EXK and I’ve now allocated 70% of my cash. My portfolio is most unusual, centered around the idea that bonds, gold, and SAAS can rise at the same time. While this might appear to be an odd mixture of complexities, it is well thought out and a cowardly approach to a potential melt up.

Markets did nothing from the opening tick, but drift and fade a little. I’m comfortable with that opaque and haunting benevolence in the tape — because it brings with it a certain verve and demeanor that requires aptitude and a relentless spirit to chase it down. This market isn’t for old men and if you’re not careful, you’ll be burned down to as cinder.

My position is simple: 3-5% directional lift higher towards the top of the range, and then failure after the New Year. My gold positions should cushion any shock to the system and my bonds will hedge. While I’m still 100% long in my Quant portfolio, it is also 50% allocated into a defensive structure. I hope that I’m doing right and have properly analyzed the environment. I’ve been hemming and hawing plenty and vacillating between success and failure, all amount to not much. Not much at all. I’ve prepared and highlighted my thoughts and have been reviewing them in person, LIVE, inside of The Capstone Programme. If you’re confused, unable to invest with honor and for profit, let me teach you what you need to be told. Get into the Capstone.

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