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Dr. Fly

18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.

Holiday X-Mas Shopping Is So Fucking Stupid

Long ago people celebrated Christmas for religious purposes. Nowadays, everyone celebrates and sucks on the cock of a mythical Satanist who travels by way of sled into the homes of young children and then eats their cookies and leaves little presents. He leaves these presents for no reason whatsoever, other than the fact he is rich AF and employs thousands of slave elves to build shit for him.

In America, poor people and rich people alike spend money recklessly in order to placate bratty children with toys they don’t need and often will never even open out from their boxes. Gifts are wrapped fancily and stacked like bricks under a plastic tree adorned with kitsch lighting and baubles made in China. Everything about this holiday spells Sodom and Gomorrah, yet like clockwork we all succumb to the social pressures of this ritual each and every year — because to ignore it or to loathe it means you’re Scrooge, and an evil businessman who kills Tiny Tim and is doomed for a cold grey graveyard alone and destitute and sent to hell.

I’ve tried to temper my approach to this holiday and often found myself masking the poor taste in my mouth with quality wine. But, as I have committed myself to NO BOOZE TILL SUMMER, I am now forced to withstand this barrage sober and I look upon the Amazon packages being tossed against my door with a painful remorse, a reminder that I’ve done something wrong by adhering to social indoctrination. Nevertheless, and I mean this with the utmost candor, I shall press on into pagan Xmas and spend more money now than at any time during the next 12 months because everyone that we know must be rewarded via some sort of vaudeville styled gift in order to show our true appreciation for their friendship and existence. Our children will rejoice in their gifts, count them even, and shortly after opening thousands of dollars in gifts resort back to their cyber lives and leave us to clean up the mess they left behind.

After a nice fat turkey, we will then discuss what we might do on New Year’s eve.

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UNDERSTAND SOMETHING: The Market Runs on Crack

Most of you don’t know what the fuck is going on, so let me explain it. Read the headline below.

Now read this.

To fund these aggressive buybacks, Corporate America has been forced to draw down their cash balances.
Nonfinancial S&P 500 companies slashed their cash holdings by $272 billion over the past 12 months, according to Goldman Sachs. Although that still leaves them with a ton of cash, the 15% decline marks the largest since 1980, the firm said.

Here’s another way to look at it: Goldman Sachs found that nonfinancial cash balances as a percentage of assets has declined from 12.7% in June 2017 to a nine-year low of 10.4% now.

Buybacks got a bad name when bullshit companies like JCP wasted billions on them. Bear in mind, you can only put lipstick on a pig once. After too long, the charade is over and everyone is looking for bacon. But if applied smartly, correctly, share buybacks are rigging machines — fucking with earnings ratios and forcing people to bid up shares.

Earnings get a boost and PE’s reduced. So what ends up happening is IARs and their stupid clients prance around on Wall Street feverishly sopping up shares because the MUH PE is cheap and earnings are attractive. This, as you now know, is a fraud — perpetuated for one single reason: BOOST SHARE PRICES.

Apple’s historical PE and share count.

Share buybacks very possibly could reach $1 trillion this year.

BEST.MARKET.EVER.

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Here Are Some Surprising Returns for 2019

We all know the market had a splendid year, with the Nasdaq up greater than 26%. We’re familiar with AAPL (+73%) and MSFT (+52%), but what about the outliers? The pieces of shit that have risen out from the grave and devoured the brains of shorts whole!

Here are some surprising YTD returns for 2019.

PG +36%
T +33%
TSM +60%
C +48%
LMT +47%
GE +51%
CELG +69%
TGT +91%
MCO +68%
SRE +36%
LRCX +110%
AMD +127%
BX +81%
HSY +37%
TSN +66%
HLT +50%
MELI +98%
CMG +89%
SNAP +170%
SHOP +177%
MTCH +65%
ROKU +354%
DOCU +81%
CVNA +180%
ARMK +50%
TTD +115%
CY +84%
CZR +94%
SE +230%
PPC +109%
GNRC +102%
NYT +49%
WEN +40%
KBR +96%
YETI +121%
THC +118%
LSCC +180%
CROX +38%
SVMK +46%
FRO +101%
BOOT +148%

It felt like years of consolidation and then explosion in 2019. It was a year of extreme wealth creation.

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Traders Are Selling the News — But They’re WRONG

I’m back from the Benz dealership in yet another chapter in the saga regarding my fucking car. Smarter people than I tell me “go get a new car, moron.” But I will never bend or fold and will spend $100,000 in repairs before I acquiesce and cave into the sales department. I’m a wise men, smart even, but when it comes to dealing with cars — I am an abject idiot.

Markets are fading early gains — because they can.

The 25% Tariffs will remain as is, with 7 1/2% put on much of the remainder,” Trump said in a tweet.

The USTR office confirms the U.S. will maintain 25% tariffs on approximately $250 billion of Chinese imports, along with 7.5% tariffs on about $120 billion.

It’s a Friday, so I will grant leniency for this transgression. But stocks should not be sold, but instead bought with cannibalistic appetites. You might fret of delving into the indices at these levels, but remember that cowards live in the shadows and brave men fuck.

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GET IN HERE and Congratulate President Trump For His Victory

Whether he gets impeached or not, executed or let free, you should thank President Donald J. Trump for winning the trade war against the mongrel nation of China today, solidifying phase 1 of the deal today with extreme gravitas.

Bears will now be trapped in tar pits, and preserved perfectly, for future bulls to find 66 million years from now. By the end of 2019, all of the short sellers will be dead.

I made 4 or 5 good buys today, looking forward to more gains in the AM.

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TRADE DEAL “IN PRINCIPLE” REACHED WITH CHINA — WATCH BONDS

This is what we’re been building up to — a two hundred point rally into pagan Xmas. Literally nothing can stop us.

U.S. REACHES DEAL IN PRINCIPLE WITH CHINA, AWAITS TRUMP SIGNOFF

U.S. NEGOTIATORS HAVE TERMS OF PHASE-ONE DEAL FOR TRUMP

However, bonds yields are rising again and the 10yr is nearing 1.90%. If, in fact, it rises to 2.00%, I gurantee you stocks will get rocked. Listen to me now, watch it closely.

Other than that, smooth sailing into the New Year’s. The desire to fade this news and sell into it is palatable, but you’d be wrong. This is where you knuckled down and buy shit — the worst stocks known to mankind.

This is what I did today, so far, on a closing out basis.

SWAV +6%
(GTHX -3%)
PUMP +5.1%

I’ll likely buy 2 or 3 stocks into the bell.

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Stocks Just Will Not Go Lower

If you’re wondering what to buy the old battle ax for Xmas this season, look no further than two of my profanity laden books — replete with my origin story about getting into the business during the dot com boom and bust.

For those who already bought them, feel free to buy them again. As you can see, they are collectors items with original RARE art on them. If you’re wondering where the fuck part 3 is of this trilogy series, it has been shelved, indefinitely. I had quite literally written 700 pages worth of reading and decided to ditch it. I then attempted to re-write it, but have since soured on writing outside of this blog. Why I have soured on writing is beyond my control. I will say, however, that waiting for Exodus 2.0 to be finished and the ramifications of that on my already busy life has probably taken its toll. I would like to, at some point, finish writing the book — but truthfully I do not feel like doing it and since I don’t make any money off these fucking things — my motivation is next to zero.

Markets will move higher today, which I suppose is good for me. Even if it were to trade lower, you’re not getting an outsized move before New Year’s. It’s just not happening.

If you want to sell short, start now and bulk up heavily before New Year’s and hope to Baby Jesus we start off 2020 in the fires.

UPDATE: (Sigh)

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Give Me Panic or Give Me Warren

The past week has been uneventful for me. I haven’t put my heart into trading, partly due to end of year malaise and partly due to my disgust in a one way tread higher. The 3x Semi long blow job ETF, SOXL, is higher by 180% for 2019. In other words, you could’ve tossed your entire account into a 3x upside ETF and gotten rich inside of a year. I thought these things were designed to burn hot and destroy investors? It looks to me like these are fantastic long term vehicles for wealth creation now. In a low volatility environ, what could go wrong, after all? The commissions are now zero and the Fed is in the wings eagerly waiting to ejaculate onto the faces of investors. There is little to no resistance on the way up. Companies are borrowing as much as they can for as little as they can in order to buy as much stock as they can in order to BOOST earnings, artificially.

BTW: You have 3 days to enroll into Obama-Care and get fucked on premiums.

I’m tired of this repeat. I want impeachment and then fires. Or I want fires now and then impeachment. If I can get neither, elect the Indian Warren and have her raise taxes so high the market explodes, literally explodes, and rains down ash upon the people — burning the weak ones to a cinder.

I cannot apply my God given talents in a tape like this — wholly dumb and incredibly monotonous. It is not a puzzle, but merely an exercise in who can be more degenerate and leverage the fuck out of a tape that cannot lose. Because of this, I bear witness to the dumbest of men presiding over $50m brokerage accounts — living fat and hoggish off the land of Trump whilst clamoring for Mueller reports and faggotry of an industrial nature.

I want the waters to flow black and the blood to pour heavily — markets disjointed and collapsed under the weight of 100,000 retards infinitely leveraging themselves into oblivion.

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Fed Sits on Thumbs, Promises to Become Irrelevant Until 2021

The Fed is officially persona non grata.

Following a year of being beaten around the face and brow by Trump, Powell is mailing it in for 2020, forecasting nothing thru 2021.

“The Committee judges that the current stance of monetary policy is appropriate to support sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee’s symmetric 2 percent objective,” the statement said.

“The Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook, including global developments and muted inflation pressures, as it assesses the appropriate path of the target range for the federal funds rate,” the committee added.

This of course means nothing. At the first sign of instability, the Fed will remove the dicks from their mouths and slash rates again. Nothing happens, until it does. In this case, nothing is forecasted thru 2021.

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SAAS UNDER PRESSURE AGAIN

I’m out of the office today with my daughter who needs some testing on her eyes done. No big deal, hopefully — but I’ll be out most of the day.

Early going I see just one of my stocks is sharply higher — SAGE — based on insider buying reports. Software stocks are getting the business, sharply lower, just because.

It’s important to note this sector has been leadership for half a decade and is struggling to regain its footing. I suspect if the market tops out, you will first see it in SAAS.

Other than that, nothing going on.

More later.

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