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Dr. Fly

18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.

China is Cheapest Dice Roll

Nothing is cheaper than BABA, if we are to believe the numbers they post. Trading at under 4x sales, BABA is 40% below its 3yr PS average. Taking into account their growth rate, the stock is a double from here — providing the Chinese government doesn’t execute Jack Ma.

Aside from BABA, there is a sundry of discounted names of substance, such as FUTU, BEKE, JD, VIPS, TME, BIDU, BILI and NTES. There are more and I’m sure the smaller ones will offer greater potential returns. However, and this should be clear to you now, I only bet on sure things.

I have BABA June 22 calls on both 175 and 185 strike. I rarely play options, perhaps once per two years due to an acute options gambling affliction, but I made an exception with this one particular stocks due to extreme conviction and my unbridled greed and avarice for money.

The other positions I own are in fact transitory, temporary phenomenons that appear like apparitions in my account and get ZAPPED out when they satiate my short term demands.

+90bps with 40% cash and two hours left to trade.

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I am completely back in the saddle now, actually bowling on fuckers in my path. I have reserved my emotions and have complete control over my investments, which are 95% cash as of right now. I had a solid morning session, made a few trades, did a little of this and a little of that, up more than 55bps so far.

Markets are not pretty and not conducive with leisure, so I opted out after I bargained my way towards a respectable level of return. I am now approaching +200% for the year and +7% for the month, all but erasing last month’s anomaly. I would request for you to check my track record, SIR, if your state of mind is one of disbelief and fall back on the knowledge that states Le Fly’s supremacy over all traders is part and parcel of this era we live in.

I might re-enter back into some risk or sell short. No one knows what I’ll do. One thing is clear and straightforward: I am winning again and nothing can get in the way of this streak. The Gods have been placated with the blood of my enemies and the tree of liberty watered inside of the denizen of Stocklabs, to bring forth a new era of magnanimity and grace. May the leaves of wisdom fall gingerly upon your breast and your pockets fill with coin and erection medicines so that you too might enjoy life in your late sad years.

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Listen to me. If you’re simply looking the NASDAQ for a true gauge of the market in 2021, you’re retarded.

Here is what the market really did today, not taking into account the NASDAQ +121 for the session.

Pennies (250m and under) -0.61% with 36% breadth
Small caps -0.7% with 46% breadth
Mega Caps -0.1% with 52% breadth
Tera Caps +0.35% with 56% breadth

The rally was narrow and the intra-day whips oppressive. I managed, yet again, with magnificent alacrity and gained 0.77% in my trading and 1.76% in my quant. I closed with a hedge, 10% position in TZA, and 23% cash. My positions were of the larger capped nature and for the first time in days zero energy stocks.

I am seeing the market clearly and sense I am invincible now, nothing mortal can readily stop me from trading well when in a groove. Nothing more to say other than the market isn’t as pleasant as you think, requiring daily hedges into the close.

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Sleeping Thru Lunch En Route to Late Afternoon Trading

There’s no need to trade from the hours of 11am to 2pm, as evidenced by the 4.5% loss I just booked on piece of shit crypto stock ARBK. It was my fault for venturing into a risky gambit, another sin that should be exorcized from my trading regimen.

Into the final hours I am once again looking to position bullishly, albeit with an overnight hedge, in only the very best stocks. To find the best stocks I use the tools available to me inside Stocklabs. If you’re not subscribed to Stocklabs and find yourself short of ideas and money making methods, just know it is because you are NOT SUBSCRIBED TO Stocklabs!

The market is bullish, but not so much. There are innumerable fades today in energy and small caps. If you’re not careful and without talent, you might just end the day with a loss.

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A Race Against the Machines

I will have you know, the Stocklabs mean reversion algorithms have won again, whilst you sit there twiddling your thumbs. The vaunted oversold signal has produced a once in a life time buying opportunity, only to have been repeated innumerable times over the years and will be repeated again many times in the future.

On the matter of racing against machines, I am in a foot race against the software version of my brain, as my Quantitative stratagem lifts off again today, exceeding MTD gains of 6%, led by a +55% gain in NET. My personal trading is up a genteel 35bps, stretching gains to 5.5%. I view the quant as my pace rabbit and will work effortlessly to beat it by month’s end.

I covered my hedges at the open, swapped a few stocks for a few others, now presently 50% cash with the patience of a lion in the tall grass.

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In this era of meme stocks and diamond handing gambits, a younger cadre of investor believe they’re going to get rich based upon their feelings. Just like your great grandparents, grandparents, and parents before you — you too will go bust!

Generations of dreamers betwixt by sheer ignorance will indelibly keep your bloodlines catacombed as train conductors and trash haulers, bank tellers, and emergency room attendants. The idea of taking a small sum and seeing it increase 20-100x is in fact rare. Take for example my sojourn into ETH during the turn of 2020. I accumulated just $5-10k worth of coins per month into a period of time deeply depressed and held onto it, overseeing my small sum balloon into a rather large sum, not by skill or foresight but circumstance otherwise known as luck. If I’d permit this grandiose investment get into my head, I might’ve tried to repeat this extravagance in other coins and see them dive lower with the rest of the Third Estate, like so many other Third Estates fell during previous generations of dreamers.

Take for example stocks under $250m market cap this year. These were the bread and butter of “winners” during late 2020-early 2021. They’re now down 55% from their highs and these losses extend, rather miserably, into all facets of the market up to large caps — with more than 20% of stocks as a whole down 50% from their highs.

If you “aped” into GME north of $400 at the height of the euphoria, your account is now worth zero.

What is the solution?

Moderate your expectations and once again fall back on efficient market theory, satisfying yourself with “normal” big dicked returns of say 3-10% per month. As a trader, and a good one, you should be able to achieve this return — resulting in annual gains of anywhere from 40-120%.

Granted, being able to return 40-120% over a long period of time is close to impossible. I am of course spoiled with the market we’ve enjoyed for the past decade plus. But let’s say you’re a really special boy and you took $50k and invested it wisely, looking for normal big dicked returns and added $10k to said account every year for the next 25 years. Any idea what that account would be worth?

$65 million you fucking retards

Say you’re a 30 year old punk today who knows it all placating your ego on Openseas, swindling others in the NFT racket — expending endless energy towards this craft all for the end result of becoming wealthy. Perhaps you chance upon a really unique ape or rock and strike it rich and use those funds to finance a life rich with luxury and degeneracy, mostly likely burning out by 40 in a cocaine fueled haze — wife and kids leaving you and yourself so depressed over the arc of your life — you blow your brains out.

An alternative to this path is patience and compounded returns!

In summary, do not blow your brains out by becoming too rich too fast. Instead opt for a more measured investment approach and if you want to accumulate wealth fast — how about starting a business and fulfilling the dreams of your fore-bearers who fell flatly onto their faces — buried under debts and sorrows — passing on bad advice and acumen to future generations only to repeat the cycle of insipid mediocrity and morose speculation.


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Did Crypto Miners/Derivative Plays Keep Up with Bitcoin’s Exploding Value These Past Two Weeks?

Big news broke this week on the approval and imminent issuing of the first American Bitcoin futures ETF. Many think Bitcoin’s rally was accentuated by this news and for good reason. Many older investors have no idea how to open up a Coinbase account and haven’t any exposure to BTC. With this ETF asset allocators and advisors can now purchase BTC for their clients, providing compliance approval.

Before this grande luxury, retail has sufficed with buying the stocks of crypto miners and/or companies who buy BTC with cash and bond issuance. But is it profitable in comparison to just owning BTC outright? Indeed it is.

As you can see BTC has appreciated by a staggering 28% in the past two weeks. The wealth created is palpable, especially when considering the ethos of crypto investors is to eschew diversification and go all in on one coin, most of the time ETH or BTC. This idea is lunacy for stock investors and if anyone was to invest all of their money into just 1 stock, such a person would be viewed as mentally addled.

Alas the topic if discussion. How about those miners?

Outperformance! Some of those above are small and should be ignored. But the larger ones, such as MARA, HUT, SI, MSTR, BITF and even CLSK are large enough to take seriously. A notable absence is RIOT, which is a puzzle to me and I can only assume some helter-skelter type chicanery is going on inside the company, led by irresponsible management.

Newly public COIN is up 22% the last two weeks, settling the matter of whether miners are able to keep up with the appreciation of the underlying coins. I’d imagine, at some point down the line of these businesses, dividends will be issued — further incentivizing investors to own these stocks for longer periods of time instead of trying to catch a wave of ebullition.

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How many times does this need to happen before we learn — never trust the opens. All day the “broader indices” show strength but the good folks in Stocklabs, outfitted with the very best analytics and tools, knew better. The smaller capped names were getting drilled all day and can see that through a chart of the IWM.

Lo and behold, the Russell gave it all up, resulting in RUINOUS LOSSES for those who bought the open with the hopes of making it.

Look at our themed indices, DRILLED from the highs as represented in % from session highs. This of course was telecasted at 9:30am when SAAS stocks opened down 1%.

On the other hand, I’m an Ethereum Millionaire again and I am hopeful for continued gains — but would not be surprised if we pulled back viciously this weekend. To celebrate this momentous occasion, dare I suggest buying a very RARE ETH MILLIONAIRE HAT?

For the session I made 70bps, pushing my gains to 5.1% for the month. At the highs I was +1.1% and pulled back in the final hour. I threw on a TZA hedge and will most likely repeat on Monday what I did today, which is sell my longs first and keep the inverse ETF, as the market fades back into the red oblivion which it has lived in since February.

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A few rough points:

RECORD backwardation in copper now, as inventories reach crisis levels.
ZINC up more than 7% and AA is higher by 13% for the session, as people clamor for anything with exposure to metals.
Big caps up; small weak to down

More of the same trends persist. Sell all opens. Trade light and small intraday — load up near the close.

We’re still up and plenty of stocks are near session highs; but I don’t give a fuck. I am out of all but my TZA hedge and BABA calls, content with +0.85% for the session. I reserve the right to change this portfolio constitution at any time and this blog isn’t meant for investment advice.

Understand something: I am a superior mind when it comes to investments and any long dated bets against my acumen will leave you or anything else in ruins.

My MTD gains now exceed 5% and I am happy to amble along for the balance of the month in methodical fashion.

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A Fine Ramp

After 3pm we had a dip but that dip was sopped up and we ramped into the close, cementing today as a great day for MOMO traders. There was, however, discernible weakness in small caps — causing me to hedge against the Russell while positioning for tomorrow in an array of larger capped stocks from all industries.

I am purposely eschewing riskier investments in favor of high win rate bets, presently +4.3% for October. If I could double said gains I will be happy. While some of the people/traders/misfits inside Stocklabs made 10% today alone, I view those returns as rather ribald and prefer a more austere mode of investment — one designed to adhere to traditional money management methods.

While the lambo driving FIN-TWIT cognoscenti continues to diamond hand their investments into assured destruction, “The Fly” plods along steadily increasing his wealth in a classic tortoise vs hare race towards victory.

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