We’re Not Scared

It’s 3:20 pm and I am no longer intrigued by today’s market. So, without trepidation, I bid you farewell.

Before I go, let’s review The House of Fly, shall we?

20% cash, 11% [[VXX]] and 69% equities

Core positions:

Flotek Industries, Inc. [[FTK]] Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. [[GS]] ICICI Bank Limited (ADR) [[IBN]] POSCO (ADR) [[PKX]] [[CBD]] Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd (ADR) [[TEVA]] Sociedad Quimica y Minera (ADR) [[SQM]] [[MWW]] SandRidge Energy Inc. [[SD]] [[VXX]] Citigroup Inc. [[C]] Southwestern Energy Company [[SWN]] Johnson Controls, Inc. [[JCI]] Jarden Corporation [[JAH]] Fuel Systems Solutions, Inc. [[FSYS]] The AES Corporation [[AES]] Eastman Chemical Company [[EMN]] [[CGA]] GMX Resources Inc. [[GMXR]] Cytec Industries Inc. [[CYT]] Cameron International Corporation [[CAM]] Trico Marine Services Inc [[TRMA]]

As you can see, it’s a mixed bag, with bitter sweet action in Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. [[GS]] , only because I like the fact that it is going lower, so that I could buy more. But, it does suck losing 10% in a day. But, my intra-day Trico Marine Services Inc [[TRMA]] and Cameron International Corporation [[CAM]] purchases have more than cut my Goldman losses in half, as far as daily profit and losses are concerned. Essentially, “The Fly” is winning, even though it appears he is losing in the most horrendous of fashions. To answer your question pal, I am not selling anything today.

Off to do something rich.

NOTE: Remember to tune in this weekend, for another fun filled episode of Cartoon Fly. This week, “The Fly” hires a new rep, Sunday 8pm.

With Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. [[GS]] and oils getting fucking destroyed, this market could be down a 3 handle. But it’s not, so quit bitching.

I will have you know, over the last 10 years, “The Fly” has done pretty good for himself, with a high annual income and burgeoning business. My accountant, God bless his soul, makes sure that I minimize my contribution to government bailouts and things of that nature. Moreover, it’s very important that you read this: to date, I’ve never helped a regional banker. That’s right John McCain. Le Fly is uninterested in his regional bankers and would rather see them in receivership, than doing well in the world of distinguished business.

Quick thought: I would find it to be most hilarious if a CAT 5 hurricane developed in the Gulf of Mexico right now, effectively lifting all of that sweet crude from the gulf into a vortex, then shit said petrol all over Louisiana and other southern states in that vicinity. That would be most humorous to a person, such as myself.

Into the bell, I like Cameron International Corporation [[CAM]] . Either way, because of this disaster, companies will need to stock the fuck up on blow out protection devices.

NOTE: Omega Protein Corporation [[OME]] sells fish oil products, derived from the Gulf of Mexico. Just so you know, all fish are now dead in the Gulf.

Let’s cut to the chase.

I took three blows to the cock this morning. I had gap downs in [[MWW]] , Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. [[GS]] and Jarden Corporation [[JAH]] —all for separate reasons. Thankfully, the laws of logic and reason have succeeded in turning around [[MWW]] : problem solved. Now I am dealing with an intra-day $39,000 loss in Goldman and a 4.5% dip in JAH. With JAH, I will continue to add to my position into weakness. There is no way I will sell at 9x earnings, in the midst of a retail recovery. People are wrong for selling the name.

Seeing opportunity, I bought more Goldman, as promised. My original intention was to go long 10,000 shares. I will do exactly that, eventually. I added to my position in the high $146’s. I am long 3,500 with a basis of around $155ish.

Playing the speculative nature of the oil spill and forthcoming clean up efforts, I bought 30,000 Trico Marine Services Inc [[TRMA]] around $2.80. And, due to my belief that Wall Street is overly punishing Cameron International Corporation [[CAM]] , I aggressively bought 20,000, cost basis around $38.

In short, before today, my cash position was about 25%. I intend to use said cash to take advantage of disconnects in the market. It’s my sense, today is one of those days that you step up and buy the fear, especially since robots still control our destiny, and shit.

NOTE: Today’s market tell is BP plc (ADR) [[BP]]

UPDATE: I bought 10,000 Newpark Resources, Inc. [[NR]] @ $7

I bought 30,000 Trico Marine Services Inc [[TRMA]] , high 2.70’s, low 2.80’s, 10,000 Cameron International Corporation [[CAM]] @ $37.66. And, I added to my Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. [[GS]] position, buying 500 @ $146.92.

I am now long 3,500 Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. [[GS]] . I intend on buying 10,000 shares, down to $125, if need be.

UPDATE: I bought another 10,000 [[CAM]] @ $38.26

Disclaimer: If you buy the above stocks because of this post, an oil rig will blow up and destroy your city. And, you may lose money.

With the oil spill approaching the bullshit marshes off of Louisiana, I am enamored by the opportunity at hand for many publicly traded companies. First, let me just say, the blow out protector, sold by Cameron International Corporation (CAM: 37.15 -4.01%) to BP plc (ADR) (BP: 51.62 -1.79%) , is NOT under warranty is more than 10 years old. From what I gather, there is no risk to CAM’s revenue stream at all, barring the formation of some fucked up Government oversight committee that will demand inspection of CAM’s products. From what I hear, the blow out might have been an operational issue, not mechanical, leaving both BP plc (ADR) (BP: 51.62 -1.79%) and Transocean Inc. (RIG: 71.15 -9.37%) in the soup.

BP plc (ADR) (BP: 51.62 -1.79%) will get hit with some stiff charges; but they have vowed to sustain their 6.3% divvy. Down that these levels, the risk/reward for BP is okay. As for Transocean Inc. (RIG: 71.15 -9.37%) : they are covered AND MORE. As a matter of fact, they might book a 300 million dollar balance sheet windfall, due to the destruction of their bullshit/faulty deep water oil rig. Nevertheless, with Congress convening on 5/6 to “investigate” this issue, I suspect RIG will get blasted pretty bad, which in turn might lead to investor backlash.

In The PPT, I have an entire watchlist of stocks that might benefit from the clean up efforts, like OMNI Energy Services Corp. (OMNI: 3.16 +5.33%) , (CLH: 63.7499 +2.48%) and Trico Marine Services Inc (TRMA: 2.67 +1.52%) . Naturally, everything is speculation now. But, as in all tragedies, opportunity lies in the balance. I will have you know, I am just the guy to seize such an opportunity, while smoking on a monstrous sized illegal cigar.

UPDATE: Wow, there is some serious fall out to the oil spill. All off shore drilling stocks are getting poleaxed this morning. All companies to do with rig production: smoked. Here is a list of some stocks getting mauled: ENSCO International Incorporated (ESV: 45.68 -6.07%) , Hercules Offshore, Inc. (HERO: 3.93 -7.96%) , (CAM: 37.15 -4.01%), Halliburton Company (HAL: 29.3604 -7.09%) , (RIG: 71.15 -9.37%), Diamond Offshore Drilling, Inc. (DO: 77.49 -6.35%) , (CIE: 11.08 -7.51%) , Mariner Energy, Inc. (ME: 23.00 -7.44%) , W&T Offshore, Inc. (WTI: 9.45 -6.99%) , Pride International, Inc. (PDE: 30.11 -4.93%) , Noble Corporation (NE: 38.18 -7.01%) , Rowan Companies, Inc. (RDC: 29.34 -6.32%) , Dril-Quip, Inc. (DRQ: 60.75 -7.42%) , Tesco Corporation (USA) (TESO: 12.27 -3.84%) , TETRA Technologies, Inc. (TTI: 13.38 -6.04%) , National-Oilwell Varco, Inc. (NOV: 43.20 -3.49%) , Baker Hughes Incorporated (BHI: 48.37 -5.93%) , Schlumberger Limited (SLB: 70.6726 -3.39%) , Helix Energy Solutions Group Inc. (HLX: 14.60 -5.13%) , Oil States International, Inc. (OIS: 46.63 -4.43%) , Oceaneering International (OII: 63.21 -6.13%) , (EXXI: 16.35 -13.08%) , CGG Veritas (ADR) (CGV: 29.93 -6.64%) , FMC Technologies, Inc. (FTI: 69.64 -5.02%) , Stone Energy Corporation (SGY: 16.11 -7.73%) , Plains Exploration & Production Company (PXP: 28.64 -6.71%) , Apache Corporation (APA: 97.25 -5.51%) , McMoRan Exploration Co. (MMR: 11.53 -11.72%) , Anadarko Petroleum Corporation (APC: 63.561 -5.60%) , Noble Energy, Inc. (NBL: 75.65 -3.32%) , (AXAS: 2.85 -6.56%) , Penn Virginia Corporation (PVA: 25.77 -5.78%) .

Without a doubt, the market is due for a sell off. With the Goldman news, coupled with the take down of the entire oil industry, we may get a sharp decline today, AND MORE. However, these are the type of events that panic investors out of solid names. If you can time it right, I am sure many of the above names will rebound sharply off of their panic-mode price declines.

You didn’t think I’d let the important matter of Henry Fool “imaxing” himself out of the hallowed halls of iBC go without making a big stink, did you?

If you are unaware, Henry Fool fired himself from iBC today, not due to negligence, but sheer stupidity. Here on iBankCoin, I like to uphold a certain level of professionalism, in between dispatching heinous insults to my readers. Because of my standards, I cannot allow someone to blog here, under the distinguished title of “official tabbed blogger of iBC,” and say shit like “BUY IMAX NOW (MOTHERFUCKER OR ELSE I WILL KILL YOUR KIDS AND YOUR PETS) BEFORE THE BELL.”

I cannot allow that, because I am a gentleman of the highest order.

I believe Mr. Fool is a good stock picker and will do well, if he chooses to blog elsewhere. However, he makes me nervous. And, I cannot allow for such grave fuckery to take place, while I am CEO and President and Grande Knight of iBankCoin.

So, let’s cut to the chase. With Mr. Fool gone, I have an opening for “tabbed blogger.” Feel free to jockey for said position, via announcing your candidacy in the Peanut Gallery. Within a week or so, we shall exercise our democratic rights and elect a new tabbed blogger.

As for the market:

Looked good. I made money. More on this tomorrow.

We are getting to a point where the weak companies are starting to underperform the well managed. Since the bottom, pretty much everything went up, in convoy formation. There was no premium put on stock picking, since melt up was contagious. Over the past year, I suspended listening to conference calls, speaking with management, and crunching numbers, because it was pointless. However, I am starting to notice a divergence between the weak and the strong. As a result, I have been putting in a lot of hours again, going over SEC documents, listening to calls and speaking with idiots at investor relations.

As earnings normalize, it’s important to understand what valuations to apply to stocks, with reference to underlying industry. For example, traditionally, semiconductor stocks trade at a premium to industrials and big banks trade at a discount to asset managers. There is a reason why Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. [[GS]] is trading at such a low valuation, as well as Amazon.com, Inc. [[AMZN]] trading so richly. The key is to compare companies within their respective sectors and look for anomalies and/or disconnects from reality.

For example: Jarden Corporation [[JAH]] is trading at a discount to Newell Rubbermaid Inc. [[NWL]] , Whirlpool Corporation [[WHR]] , [[NPK]] and Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia, Inc. [[MSO]] on a FPE, P/B basis. Why?

Well, we can speculate that other companies are eating into JAH’s shelf space or people are tentative about going long Jarden due to their sensitivity to retail trends. In my opinion, and this is an educated bet, investors are fucking smoking jumbos, selling JAH at 10x eps.

Get your spreadsheets out and start comparing valuations and look for sectors that have earnings power.

Who has earnings power?

Any company that services the global growth story, like Cummins Inc. [[CMI]] , Eastman Chemical Company [[EMN]] , Lubrizol Corporation [[LZ]] or Apple Inc. [[AAPL]] . Try to avoid niche plays, unless of course you already have ample exposure to leadership stocks. Often times, people fuck themselves by trying to be too smart, via buying dogs. Truth be known, I have done this to myself on numerous occasions. Aside from the crappy stocks that you know me for (FTK, GMXR, SD, etc), I own a plethora of leadership names, like Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. [[GS]] , POSCO (ADR) [[PKX]] , Eastman Chemical Company [[EMN]] , Cytec Industries Inc. [[CYT]] , [[CBD]] , Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd (ADR) [[TEVA]] , Citigroup Inc. [[C]] and ICICI Bank Limited (ADR) [[IBN]] .

Sometime soon, as the economy improves, certain sectors will be bought up by money managers, due to the important theory of “multiple expansion.”

What does that mean?

Answer: go fuck yourself.

Do some research and try to avoid them fucking murderholes.

I bought 5,000 Jarden Corporation [[JAH]] @ $33.70.

Disclaimer: JAHHHHHHRDEN, motherfuckers. Get your blender game on.

UPDATE: I added to my Godly Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. [[GS]] position, buying 2,000 @ $159.85. Gold loves Blankfein. Prove me wrong.

If the bulls are right and the global economy roars into 2011, oil will scream past $100, setting up a super cycle for oil and gas stocks. In my estimation, oil is a must own here, especially going into the summer months.

There is no denying the massive upswing in drilling, domestically and offshore. With the fundamentals so robust, the market is wrong for valuing the majors and independent producers so cheaply, most trading between 8-15x 2011 eps.

You want ideas? Well, we all want some fucking ideas. Instead of living your life like a leech, why don’t you do a little research and contribute to society, instead of bottom feeding?

On a persona level, I like Weatherford International Ltd. [[WFT]] , Southwestern Energy Company [[SWN]] , Flotek Industries, Inc. [[FTK]] , Ultra Petroleum Corp. [[UPL]] , GMX Resources Inc. [[GMXR]] , and a few others to be named later.

As for Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. [[GMCR]]

I do not like the fact that they have quality control issues. Last quarter, approximately 50-75k Keurigs were returned and that cost the company .09 per share. Going forward, the company will be spending a lot of money on better manufacturing, all to do with the substandard quality being produced in China. Although I like the story, longer term, the stock is to be avoided like the plague at 40x earnings. Should it dip into the $60’s, I will start to accumulate.

Top picks: Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. [[GS]] , Johnson Controls, Inc. [[JCI]] , Jarden Corporation [[JAH]] , Flotek Industries, Inc. [[FTK]]

NOTE: Steve Jobs just murdered Adobe Systems Incorporated [[ADBE]] in an open letter on apple.com. ADBE is a sell, as long as Apple hates them.

Ham -n- Eggs served in a chinese food container.

Biggest winners, year to date (min market cap of 5bill)

No.	Ticker	Market Cap	YTD Return
1	NFLX	5,642,850,521	81.47
2	RBS	50,024,825,000	77.74
3	SII	11,742,438,313	76.41
4	MGM	6,870,069,043	73.46
5	LVS	17,300,472,399	68.14
6	MI	5,082,420,582	65.99
7	CMI	14,578,394,206	61.17
8	TSN	5,999,621,183	60.87
9	RF	10,072,903,783	60.80
10	KEY	7,734,850,482	57.22
11	GNW	9,209,247,113	53.30
12	CLF	9,268,254,879	52.63
13	WYNN	11,358,061,881	52.45
14	BIDU	21,550,863,902	51.01
15	DNDN	5,370,997,672	50.30
16	FITB	11,538,202,184	48.67
17	PRGO	5,491,753,637	48.42
18	VMW	6,621,366,153	47.48
19	MIL	5,951,435,645	46.74
20	HOT	14,694,073,419	45.67
21	SNDK	9,953,806,577	44.36
22	HIT	19,988,189,645	44.23
23	M	10,509,928,413	43.72
24	STI	13,876,938,279	43.59
25	SHLD	13,610,113,495	42.91

DENNINGER (sans blue blazer)