The Fly is Dead

I haven’t looked at my monitor all day, ever since it decided to castrate me. I understand the President had a CNBC townhall meeting today. Fuck the President. “The Fly” is officially dead. You may all address me as “Charbuckle Wilson” for now on. I will move my family down south and open a chain of novelty shoppes. I will name them “Charbuckle’s Stuff.”

I am prepared to let VXX go to zero. As retarded as that sounds, I’d still be up 5% for the year—if that shit really did happen. The bottom line is I am beyond mad. I am an angry man with steam coming out of his ears. This recent market run, which was predicted eloquently by all other iBC bloggers, is like a perpetual car wreck for me. The sick shit, I’m still driving the fucked up, mangled car, doing 100mph on the freeway. People gawk and point and say “holy shit that guy should be dead.”

One word: SEATBELTMOTHERFUCKERS.

Okay, Charbuckle is leaving now and will not bother reading any blog comments, for the lifetime of this blog. Do not bother asking “Charbuckle” questions, for he barely knows English. I now leave the integrity of this blog to you, the unwashed people from the internets.

See ya’ll the fuck later.

Everyone is racing to buy gold, as it is a “store of value.” Well, you know what else is a “store of value”? My cock. I will not besmirch those who like gold. I just really think the concept of gold is ludicrous, which is why I never buy it. At any rate, there are some powerful seasonal factors that contribute to price appreciation, for gold, during the month of September.

I will go over some of that shit, and more, right now.

By far, out of all the months in the year, September is the best month for gold. Granted, in recent years, November has been more than serviceable for gold bugs. But over a longer body of work, September is the month for gold.

Here are some historical facts for September, courtesy of The PPT (symbol, avg. return, winning percentage, month, months down, total months, months up)

As you can see, about 10 names are showing 70% win rates, with some pretty large data sets, which is impressive. It’s especially impressive because gold has not always been “the place be.”

Where am I going with this? You know damn well where I am going.

October seasonality (symbol, avg. return, winning percentage, month, months down, total months, months up):

As you can see, gold stocks do not fare well in October. As a matter of fact, they perform dreadfully. Currently, I am short AEM, a stock that has been down 75% of the time, during the month of October—over 26 years. This is not some small data set where you can laugh and spit on, as you sip on a fine aged Bordeaux. Quite the contrary. You buy AEM into October and it shits on you, for an average loss of 8%.

I like those odds.

I will be shorting more AEM, up to $71.

About a month ago, the internet was “abuzz” with dire warnings of Hindenburg Omens, calling for imminent collapse. If you recall, I called for a “Nagasaki NOW!” move up, just to sort of counter-balance all of the tomfoolery that was being broadcasted on CNBC. Fast forward 10 trading days and 600 Dow points, everyone is calling for a super-spike past 11,000. Need I remind you to exercise restraint, following parabolic moves? After all of these years showing you animals how it’s done, you still forget the basic principles of investing.

Sure, if you stuck with this move, all the way, you made more money than me. It’s true, I am not big on pushing the envelope these days, which has more to do with having gains than not, if you know what I mean.

Instead of regurgitating all of the bad news, like Ireland getting a secret ECB bailout last week, I am here to remind you of your place, which is decidedly lower than me. As the summer winds down and degenerate clowns laugh it up on the teevee, discussing the “cock market” and how it “deserves to be so much higher,” keep in mind they are fucking morons of the first order and are wrong all the time.

“People never see it coming. They just get to see it go.”

-BEAS, 2010

In my opinion, we have a maximum of 2% upside left, and 15% down. I’ve been through markets like this before, as many of you. The big difference between you, and a person such as myself: I remember the answers. I can personally guarantee many of you will be caught 100% long, or more, into the top. It happens every time. After all, someone has to hold the bag of bombs filled with shit.

There will be no warnings or mercy, just down. Perhaps the widening CDS spreads in Ireland, Portugal, Greece and Ukraine will have something to do with the decline. Or, it might be caused by fears of taxes rising or monetary tightening in Asia. Dare I say, the markets may just sell off due to profit taking? I mean, let’s be perfectly clear with one another, if the United States economy was a business, would you buy it now? The notion that news is so bad it has to get better applies best when markets are depressed. Last I checked, CRM was trading 1 billion times 2020 earnings.

I’ve dug in my heels and will not budge, so do not try to sway me. I see BAC trickling lower, while abject retards bid up NFLX. This is not the beginning of some financial renaissance. For that to happen, we’d need strong underpinnings. Last I checked, we’re a nation filled of hamburgalars.

Look, don’t do what I do. Stick to what you feel comfortable with doing. Maybe it’s my time to lose. It could be the end of “The Fly’s” dynasty of perpetual market mastery. Or, maybe I ricochet back and blow up your log cabin with my fucking howitzer.

Those consumer sentiment numbers were dreadful, yet here we are unch. There is something to be said about a market that refuses to go down. Now, we can complain all we want about manipulation and how “stupid” the market is. But, in reality, markets are not stupid, people are. I’ve been 100% wrong with my recent sales. I’ve been 100% wrong with my VXX “hedge.” It’s too early to say if I am wrong on TZA, since it is hovering near my cost basis. The big lesson in all of this is: there is no lesson.

Previous market pullbacks were very sharp, which would have allowed my current strategy to pay off very handsomely. Unfortunately, the market has not cooperated with my incessant demands. So the fuck what? I still have big gains and lots of skin in the game. It’s not like the market is ending soon and I will not have a chance to recapture my former glory.

Go with what you know and don’t be stupid about allocations. If there is one thing that has saved me, over and over again, it’s allocations. Leg into positions slowly and never overweight one sector or stock more than 20%.

Breadth is somewhat mixed today, with weakness in commodity names and strength in tech. The market could go either way. If I was to bet against anything, it would be a big move in any direction.

More of the same, ho hum, ho hum.

I shorted another 2,000 AEM this morning @ $68.30.

Disclaimer: Fuck bubbles.

Nice meltdown action in European markets, oil and rotary phone maker RIMM. But “The Fly” has more important bad news to lament over. Late last night, Mrs. Fly approached my person and said “you do know you have to shave that thing? We have company coming Saturday.”

Say goodbye to the beard.

Great men, like Ben Bernanke and Prezident O’bama have beards. Why can’t I? I suppose it wasn’t meant to be?

CPI data came in cool, at 0, when you strip out food and energy. But who gives a fuck? It’s all about ignoring valuation and buying shit ’cause it’s up, as is the case with gold.

Sure, keep ignoring valuation; see where it gets you.

Aside from gold, the only sectors showing relative strength today are tech and chemicals, led by gains in AAPL, CSCO, FFIV, AMZN, RIMM, HUN, EMN, CE etc. Everything else is bland to down, especially CRE and banks. But so what? My cost basis on TZA is in the high $31’s and VXX in the $23’s. Do not view me as a wounded animal, as most of my assets are held in cash.

I initiated a short position in AEM, not to defeat gold bugs. Stocks ebb and flow. Some of you forget that ranges are never preordained. You have to anticipate them. Fuck your charts. I intend to short 2,000 shares, every point, up to $71.

I am left with a few long positions: FTK, TEVA, C, SHLD and EWZ.

In closing, I will not be surprised to see more of the same, run into the bell. After all, the short sellers are without testicles and the perma-bulls brains. We can call this rally “the one in 7 celebratory rally,” commemorating the fact that 1 in 7 American are now considered “impoverished” (highest level since 1965).

Now that is something to celebrate!

I sold short 2,000 AEM @ $67.61.

I intend to sell short this overpriced pig a great deal, up to $71.

Disclaimer: Fuck gold.

I grew up dodging bullets my whole life, at times literally. Unlike some of you silver spooners, who have no idea what it feels like to need, I thrive during periods of duress. Just know and understand, when I come out on the other end of this a winner, there will be penances distributed, without restraint. I am not like you, so don’t try to befriend me. See, you and I, we are two peas in a pod. The only difference, I have a fucking rambo knife and will split your head two for one.

This internet thing is real funny for a lot of you. You come here in your trousers, laughing, waiting to see what “The Fly” is gonna say next. In the meantime, I am monitoring all of you, vis a vis a sophisticated network of identity tracking software, which will be used to punch off your chest hairs in due time.

The market is pinned down thanks to quadruple witching. Breadth is horrendous on many levels and we should be down a lot more. Treasuries are selling off and the fervor in gold continues, as fudge fund managers plow into the yellow metal—only because it is up. The yen is down again, as the Japanese go all in against the Chicoms. But, at the end of the day, breadth is bad, so expect nothing.

In most cases, you get what you deserve.