As Good as Gold

Everyone is racing to buy gold, as it is a “store of value.” Well, you know what else is a “store of value”? My cock. I will not besmirch those who like gold. I just really think the concept of gold is ludicrous, which is why I never buy it. At any rate, there are some powerful seasonal factors that contribute to price appreciation, for gold, during the month of September.

I will go over some of that shit, and more, right now.

By far, out of all the months in the year, September is the best month for gold. Granted, in recent years, November has been more than serviceable for gold bugs. But over a longer body of work, September is the month for gold.

Here are some historical facts for September, courtesy of The PPT (symbol, avg. return, winning percentage, month, months down, total months, months up)

1	NG		8.78	83.33	September	1.00	6.00	5.00
2	SA		17.38	83.33	September	1.00	6.00	5.00
3	BVN		10.42	78.57	September	3.00	14.00	11.00
4	RGLD		10.77	77.78	September	4.00	18.00	14.00
5	HMY		16.50	76.92	September	3.00	13.00	10.00
6	UXG		4.44	75.00	September	3.00	12.00	9.00
7	ANV		12.95	75.00	September	1.00	4.00	3.00
8	LIHR		14.30	71.43	September	4.00	14.00	10.00
9	GSS		9.78	71.43	September	2.00	7.00	5.00
10	IAG		4.88	71.43	September	2.00	7.00	5.00
11	DROOY		16.06	69.23	September	4.00	13.00	9.00
12	GFI		7.44	68.42	September	6.00	19.00	13.00
13	KGC		12.42	66.67	September	5.00	15.00	10.00
14	GRS		12.31	66.67	September	2.00	6.00	4.00
15	GG		8.06	66.67	September	5.00	15.00	10.00

As you can see, about 10 names are showing 70% win rates, with some pretty large data sets, which is impressive. It’s especially impressive because gold has not always been “the place be.”

Where am I going with this? You know damn well where I am going.

October seasonality (symbol, avg. return, winning percentage, month, months down, total months, months up):

1	RBY		-8.01	16.67	October	5.00	6.00	1.00
2	RGLD		-9.52	20.00	October	16.00	20.00	4.00
3	DROOY		-9.36	21.43	October	11.00	14.00	3.00
4	UXG		-8.45	25.00	October	9.00	12.00	3.00
5	AU		-5.67	25.00	October	9.00	12.00	3.00
6	AEM		-8.14	26.92	October	19.00	26.00	7.00
7	GRS		-5.73	28.57	October	5.00	7.00	2.00
8	EGO		-1.29	28.57	October	5.00	7.00	2.00
9	IAG		-5.48	28.57	October	5.00	7.00	2.00
10	KGC		-8.17	33.33	October	10.00	15.00	5.00
11	VGZ		-4.61	33.33	October	12.00	18.00	6.00
12	NEM		-3.43	33.33	October	18.00	27.00	9.00
13	NAK		-2.37	33.33	October	4.00	6.00	2.00
14	GG		-4.70	35.71	October	9.00	14.00	5.00
15	BVN		-3.76	35.71	October	9.00	14.00	5.00
16	HMY		-5.16	35.71	October	9.00	14.00	5.00
17	GFI		-3.23	36.84	October	12.00	19.00	7.00

As you can see, gold stocks do not fare well in October. As a matter of fact, they perform dreadfully. Currently, I am short AEM, a stock that has been down 75% of the time, during the month of October—over 26 years. This is not some small data set where you can laugh and spit on, as you sip on a fine aged Bordeaux. Quite the contrary. You buy AEM into October and it shits on you, for an average loss of 8%.

I like those odds.

I will be shorting more AEM, up to $71.

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