iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
20,991 Blog Posts

The Party is Fun, Until it Ends

In my opinion, we have a maximum of 2% upside left, and 15% down. I’ve been through markets like this before, as many of you. The big difference between you, and a person such as myself: I remember the answers. I can personally guarantee many of you will be caught 100% long, or more, into the top. It happens every time. After all, someone has to hold the bag of bombs filled with shit.

There will be no warnings or mercy, just down. Perhaps the widening CDS spreads in Ireland, Portugal, Greece and Ukraine will have something to do with the decline. Or, it might be caused by fears of taxes rising or monetary tightening in Asia. Dare I say, the markets may just sell off due to profit taking? I mean, let’s be perfectly clear with one another, if the United States economy was a business, would you buy it now? The notion that news is so bad it has to get better applies best when markets are depressed. Last I checked, CRM was trading 1 billion times 2020 earnings.

I’ve dug in my heels and will not budge, so do not try to sway me. I see BAC trickling lower, while abject retards bid up NFLX. This is not the beginning of some financial renaissance. For that to happen, we’d need strong underpinnings. Last I checked, we’re a nation filled of hamburgalars.

Look, don’t do what I do. Stick to what you feel comfortable with doing. Maybe it’s my time to lose. It could be the end of “The Fly’s” dynasty of perpetual market mastery. Or, maybe I ricochet back and blow up your log cabin with my fucking howitzer.

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161 comments

  1. Frank White

    Not the log cabin, blow up my Bentley, just leave me the cabin.

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  2. scott

    Traders: BUY ROSH HASHANAH, SELL YOM KIPPUR. It actually worked perfectly this year–so far…

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    • SteveTheNeighbor

      How can I short the market tomorrow? Any way I suspect the sell Yom Kippur saying comes from the fact that they are too busy throwing up from the bad gefilte fish from the day before and lack of food on Yom Kippur itself.

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      • Punctuation Police
        Punctuation Police

        Hey Steve, Quit fucking around. We’re waiting for you at Lake Nona for our usual 1pm tee-time.

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        • SteveTheNeighbor

          I am not allowed to play there anymore after I sent a ball through David Ledbetter’s Rolls and accidentally ran over Ernie Els dog with my golf cart.

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    • scott

      Oh, and investors should be ready for an SEPTEMBER SURPRISE

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  3. Rik O Chet

    if the United States economy was a business, would you buy it now? NFW

    Last I checked, we’re a nation filled of hamburgalars. FAS (Funny as S)

    A ricochet seems a good bet.

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  4. tm

    So what about the Feb-Apr melt up? I mean we got a lot more overbought then and just kept going. Why couldn’t that happen now?

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  5. Skullnbones

    I sense a “Fly wins again” post coming soon.

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  6. The_Real_Hmmm

    I’m rearranging things, like God putting together a platypus. Selling stuff, buying other things, and shorting NGLS at the highs of the day.

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  7. Vinny

    @tm you’re comparing a 3 month 10% move on increasing volume on the way up with a 10 day 7% move on decreasing volume. Not saying you’re wrong, but I don’t consider the two moves to be comparable.

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  8. Rick

    “A strong middle class needs a strong economy”…now that we’ve established that, brace yourself for a return of the “good times”

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  9. Trading_Nymph

    Larry McMillian pointed out something….In BULLISH times VIX outperforms VXX and the reverse in bearish times….has anyone done any chart work comparing the relationship between the two of them…I don’t think PPT has that part of the “magic” in it?

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    • Yogi & Boo Boo

      Vix has been outperforming since the middle of July. OK fine, we’ve been bullish. But we’re now @ 1.25, the peak was 1.40 on a spike on May 7, 2005. It appears to be a coincident indicator. Not sure how much of an edge it gives. I was just eyeballing the charts, so the ratio might turn a bit earlier. BTW right now we’re pointing down, AKA Fly wins again. Full disclosure: fully hedged with TZA expecting a downturn FWIW.

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      • Trading_Nymph

        Yogi which platform are u using to see the difference of the two…it will save me a lot of time in having to hand graphing them…can you throw in a 89MA on the daily and let me know if it was the break point

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    • Steven Place

      It’s complicated, and it’s related to how the VXX gets exposure to vol. There’s VIX futures curve issues as well.

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      • Trading_Nymph

        Thanks Steven and Yogi…I am going to play around with it this weekend…I’ll set up a longer term and shorter term relationship, etc and see what comes out…

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  10. panamaorange

    i absolutely think were starting a 5% to 7% pullback.soon But, 15% into November elections? Im not sure the big fund managers will want to sit short into a huge republican victory. Look what happened to the Dow after 1994.

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    • Indie

      don’t bet yet on a huge republican victory. tea party is splitting the right wing vote.

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      • A Monkey With no party
        A Monkey With no party

        I’m totally betting on a HUGE democratic party loss. Call it mo hope and change.

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      • JakeGint

        Wrong. Tea Party IS the “right wing vote.”

        Look at Rubio in Fla. — up 14% with Crist still in the race!

        No one wants the statist hamburglar lunch anymore.

        _________

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        • flyaway18

          Keith Olbermann just roasted Christine O’Donnell.
          Holy shit, she has some bizarre opinions.

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  11. John

    Are you going to add scotts page to the iphone app?

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  12. YoZone

    Can I load the Howitzer? I used to be a certified Honest John Rocket Crewman so a Howitzer would be a piece of cake.

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  13. Chris Cooper

    Whomp Whomp WHmop

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  14. TheV.King

    Jeremey just updated me on the votes cast thus far….

    1. Ray Lewis. LB Baltimore Ravens 10 votes
    2. Sylvester Stallone. Expendables 1 votes
    3. The Fly. iBankCoin/PPT 29 votes
    4. Vladimir Putin. Kremlin Russia 12 votes
    5. Gen. David Petraeus. Iraq/Afghanistan 3 votes

    Also worth mentioning Steve the Neighbor has received 6 write in votes

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  15. Cecil B deBraveflaps
    Cecil B deBraveflaps

    RELEASE THE SAMSONITE!!

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  16. Reality_Bites

    Nice post.

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  17. omen

    I want a serious meltdown!! (I only try to make money on the way up, from OS, so in order for that to happen, I NEED A FUCKING OS!! ) 🙂

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  18. myke

    “…if the United States economy was a business, would you buy it now?” Best summation I’ve heard all week. Also, a general statement to ask every week before hitting the buy button.

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    • TheV.King

      Your avatar sucks….

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      • myke

        yours is lathered used crisco from last nights west hollywood glory hole extravaganza. your point?

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        • TheV.King

          a. Speaking of grease check out that forehead…some geeky guy with bad vision who loves gloryholes…c’mon sunshine
          Let’s not talk about the hairline and idiotic pose…What are you working with?…20k 50 tops…i’ve gold plated kitchen utensils for twice your net worth…why don’t you take a box cutter to your throat…

          thanks

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          • TheV.King

            Switch it back…that shit is creepy!

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          • myke

            avatars. somewhere last on my list of things to think about. i visit the site for the commentary and to learn something. trading under 2 years and it’s a small starter 10k account. as stated. here to learn. cock sword fighting and chatter about home utensil design aesthetic (gold? classy!) isn’t for me.

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          • TheV.King

            Ah so you want to be The V.King altar ego…good.

            You’re the gay,weak,bald bad skin whiney man bitch…now please change your name from myke to dyke…or bizarro v.kING

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          • wilmer

            I swear fly you really need an iBC Thunderdome for all the pissing contests that occur here.

            TWO MEN ENTER ONE MAN LEAVES

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          • TheV.King

            I like your avatar…

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          • wilmer

            Thank you sir!

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          • JakeGint

            That’s a cute pooch. Boxer?

            ________

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          • wilmer

            Yes indeed. That pic is about 5 years old now. She’s greyed up quite a bit these days, though she still thinks she is a puppy.

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          • myke

            space bar. learn it.

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          • myke

            @wilmer. pass. been here long enough to know that iBC pissing matches are a pointles. going back to just reading. later.

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          • TheV.King

            Testicles….grow some!

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          • drummerboy

            too many alias’s here. p u sure its not the return button.

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  19. Book 'em Danno

    One dull market.

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  20. wilmer

    LLTF (Long Live The Fly)

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  21. Bo Beach

    Why are cotton, oats, corn…fucking cotton, why are all their futures parabolic? John Galt?

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  22. No One

    Let’s not forget OJ
    It looks like it may break out too.

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  23. FIG

    Monday is up again next week. a good 2% move is in the making. And, no we wont sell off after it either.

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  24. Name

    fuck, whats up, I want my 2:30 pm rally! – grrrrrrrrrrrr…………….

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  25. TraderCaddy

    RIMM doing a 360 from the AH yesterday.
    Heading to a loss?
    Funny.

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  26. stocksrider

    I predict path of max frustration – couple more days of upside pissing off traders and then a drop. More details in my new post on King of PG – http://ibankcoin.com/king_of_the_pg/2010/09/17/sleeper-rally-or-another-roller-coaster/

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  27. A Monkey With the bag of bombs filled with shit.
    A Monkey With the bag of bombs filled with shit.

    Fuck…when is the BIG correction?

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  28. Taylor

    The Fly should retire from gay market shenanigans in the meanwhile and go back to producing blockbuster YouTubeywood laugh-a-second videos. That shit was Grade A! Then, when he finishes with another Academy Award winning gutbusters the markets will have crashed just in time for the release of an actual Hollywood blockbuster to arrive on the scene, thus fulfilling The Fly’s dark prophecy and providing him ample items to gloat incessantly about.

    Btw, I will enjoy both the movie and the gloating as I hate all the same morons The Fly hates.

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  29. Shine My Shoes

    I was roaming around my office hear at Goldman’s..and i found a fortune cookie in the trash can, still in the rapper from a month or so ago. This trash can never get emptied out because it’s hidden under my desk so the cleaning lady misses it every time.
    I open the package up just because i was curious what it would say. Heres what it said. You have a stock name tza that will reward you come monday.

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    • JakeGint

      “Goldman’s?”

      What is that, a department store in Alphers, Missouri?

      _____

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      • wilmer

        When I see such poor grammar and spelling I can’t help to wonder how the fuck people manage to even get any money at all to trade with. It must be an inheritance or lawsuit….

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        • JakeGint

          LOL @ “a lawsuit.”

          Truth be told no one knows how to write any more. The first thing I ask for in seeking a new employee is writing samples.

          You should see the offal I receive.

          It’s awful.

          _____

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    • drummerboy

      in goldmans mens room, standing behind loyd,getting your shoes shined,is that what yuz doin

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  30. bushmantrades

    I agree with stocksrider. Looking for a breakout similar to the inverse of what happened when spy broke below range for a few days in late june to early july. I mean topping right at the top of the range again would be a little too easy, no?

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  31. Vegastrader

    Staying put 30% TZA and 70% Cash. 2% upside is around 1150. Nice place to start the crash of the year. It is like riding the Superman ride at Six Flags you first bounce up then down and up a little before it takes you all the way up. You dont know when the drop comes.

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  32. Le Fly

    FIG is the inverse Purdy

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  33. GYSC

    All week this was the funniest stuff I have read in some time! Thanks!

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  34. harmless

    The party is fun until you get caught.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k6XEg4UL-q8

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    • harmless

      Cancel that impure thought. This guy figured it out.
      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qlfYAABF-Pk&feature=related

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      • Yabollox

        I guess it’s her or an avowed marxist. I think she will win. And we’ll be better for it. She will mostly vote with her party leadership anyways. She doesn’t have to administer anything like a Gov. or mayor would.

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        • Jakegint

          I didn’t realize she was kind of hot. I’ll say one thing about this Hot Holy Roller trend we’ve got going here.

          It’s a hell of a lot better than looking at Jerry Falwell.

          __________

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          • harmless

            She’d do in a pinch and I can understand her passionate and insatiable desire for absolute power and control over male genitalia, but if she makes it to fascist dictator, the future is a purplish blue color.

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          • Jakegint

            We’ve already got a fascist dictator.

            Don’t you get that the Tea Party is about preventing that kind of shit, and it’s formation a direct response to people seeing it happening?

            Sometimes I just don’t get the libs. What is it about retarded government that they love so much?

            _____________

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          • harmless

            I don’t care if she’s from the Glee Party. If she starts talking male chastity devices, I’m out.

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          • Jakegint

            Agreud!

            ______

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  35. StocksRider

    Fly, you are truly the salt of this earth. Reality laced with humor, outright audacity and honesty – now where else can you find this in one single go! Congratulations on being you!

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  36. Relax, baby... just chill...
    Relax, baby... just chill...

    80% cash at 1 pm… felt good too… stress-free weekend… chillin’….

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  37. alphadawgg

    The last word for this market is: expect the unexpected.

    Just when we think we have things figured out, we don’t.

    Be careful out there, and try not to blow things up.

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  38. wiglebot

    15% down is not that bad. Then we buy again.

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  39. Prospectus

    HAMBURGALAR NATION

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  40. TheV.King

    New update from Jeremey ….

    1. Ray Lewis. LB Baltimore Ravens 19 votes
    2. Sylvester Stallone. Expendables 12 votes
    3. The Fly. iBankCoin/PPT 59 votes
    4. Vladimir Putin. Kremlin Russia 32 votes
    5. Gen. David Petraeus. Iraq/Afghanistan 6 votes

    Also worth mentioning Steve the Neighbor has received 9 write in votes
    JakeGint also has 3 write in votes

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  41. Prospectus

    HAMBURGALAR NATION

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  42. Reality_Bites

    Guys, time to be scared, I know I am a broken record, but watch out next week, Monday or Tuesday….China will announce something BAD…
    http://screenr.com/Y9n

    Good luck all.

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    • Jakegint

      Holy shit, that Bam Trader guy sounds like the voiceover from that song with the line: “… they were drinking from the fountain that was gushing like a waterfall coming down the mountain.”

      Can’t think of the title, or the band, but that voice is so distinctive it just rang a bell in my head.

      Of course I’ve had some vin rouge.

      _________

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      • The_Real_Hmmm

        Butthole Surfers – Pepper. Gushing like a waterfall? Hit the head bro. “Pouring like an avalanche.” Sounds like you’ve already hit the apex, keep drinking. Finish strong. Talk at ‘cha.

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  43. GYSC

    Its golden until years end. The only sector the GUV could influence, the stock market, is up. So what if everything sucks? Imagine if all workers were replaced by robots! Thats good for an S&P 10000 handle! As long as no one gets upset its all good.

    Buy!

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  44. Shine My Shoes

    Rest of story.
    I thought man..who came up with the idea of a talking cookie??

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  45. Le Fly

    You’re all tax and spend libs

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  46. Le Fly

    Well i ate 200 slices of pizza tonight

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  47. Name

    The last 4-5 days a BIG divergence was building up between SPX and USO, seems bigger than anytime the last 8 months or so, interesting.

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    • Name

      fuck oil! – LOL

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      • flyaway18

        Keep an eye on UCO then,
        on Friday it bounced off 8.74
        and, like crude, pulled the quickest
        reversal I have ever seen.

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        • Po Pimp

          That was because the dumbasses sprung a leak in their pipeline. Of course this meant we were never ever ever going to get any more crude from Canada again. Oh the horror, oh the humanity.

          Anybody wants to deal with shock and awe, just trade crude futures for a week.

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  48. london

    quantitative disappointment on Tuesday chips away at “the future is so bright” scenario; remaining positive sentiment starts submerging in a rising sea of global FX trade “i am concerned” and “hmmm…. china…” beard-stroking b.s… (One advantage of shaving a beard is that one looks less intellectually fake, BTW. You should mostly wear a beard if you plan on trick-or-treating in a Fed chair costume)

    I spose we’ll break upward eventually, but not until convincingly better data is undebatedly in the rear-view mirror. till then it’s one guy’s “i am concerned” vs. the next guy’s “things are lookin up” – the definition of a trading range.

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  49. needle dick the bug fucker
    needle dick the bug fucker

    http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052970204297404575493972753845384.html?mod=BOL_da_gt

    Good Barrons artical on the low trading volume with charts and comparisons to 2004.

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    • needle dick the bug fucker
      needle dick the bug fucker

      e

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      • Bullish

        It is a nice artical (sic).

        I’ve been making the same argument since Feb 2009 which has been very accurate. I have been saying 2003 and 2009 will look very similar (sharp recovery rally) followed by 2010 which will feel and look alot like 2004 (sideways negative grind until mid Oct).

        Everyone’s counter argument has been: “Ohhh thats such a stupid idea since everything is different this time, yada yada yada… Nothing is ever that easy to match up… credit crisis… blah blah blah

        Well, here we are now and Barrons is suggesting the same. Except my call was made over 18 mths ago…

        Just thought I’d share that

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  50. NorCal

    Artical? LOL!! Is anyone besides Fly educated on this blog?

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  51. TraderRenn

    I forget what it means when there is an overload of meaningless posts on these blogs, help – anyone ??? I

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  52. needle dick the bug fucker
    needle dick the bug fucker

    The Chances of a Double Dip
    By Gary Shilling

    http://www.safehaven.com/article/18234/the-chances-of-a-double-dip

    Interesting read…

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    • Vegastrader

      Thanks for the link. Good reading. Support my bearish position

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      • Jakegint

        Well if Gary Shilling ever supported a bullish position, I’d be well shocked.

        __________

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        • needle dick the bug fucker
          needle dick the bug fucker

          jake your correct. and reading between the lines its obvious. I thought twice about posting the articale. But we have a group that can see this.

          The articale has a few good nuggets of info though.

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  53. Codfish

    Take a fillet knife to BAC

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  54. Vegastrader

    Black Monday, Oct. 19, 1987, in U.S. history, day of financial panic. The Dow Jones Average fell 508.32 points, a drop of 22.6%, the largest since 1914. The point decline as well as the volume, 604.33 million shares, exceeded previous records. Among the possible causes were investors’ anxiety about U.S. international trade and federal deficits, U.S. criticism of West Germany’s economic policies, the cascading effect of the automatic computerized selling of stocks, and the drop in stock-index futures triggered by computerized trading programs. Stocks throughout the world joined the slide. By mid-1988 the stock market had recovered, and the U.S. economy was largely unaffected by the crash.

    When will we have the Sequel Black Monday II. Wil it be this coming Monday and next Monday? Does the reasons sound familiar?

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    • Jakegint

      No.

      ________

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    • needle dick the bug fucker
      needle dick the bug fucker

      the cascading effect of the automatic computerized selling of stocks, and the drop in stock-index futures triggered by computerized trading programs.

      which leads to a domino effect.

      I buy it….

      at the end of the day the GOV can sweep bad economic policy under the rug, until we start tripping over it..

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    • Name

      Not on next Monday, because severe meltdowns only starts from oversold or deeply oversold conditions – ALWAYS! – NO exception. Wait up to 10 trading days, IF we are oversold then.

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    • arch

      oct 28

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  55. Vegastrader

    What dangers ahead could cause the next crash. So many to pick from. What about this one: Tradewar against China?

    US held hostage by China who holds 843 Billion dollars US Treasure bonds. US companies like Nucor is complaining about China dumping cheap steel here but the US cannot afford a tradewar that could make China dump the treasure bonds and throwing the US into a tail spin economic crisis. We have the military power which by the way seems to be useless against most likely threat which is terrorism. China has the economic power. China wins we loose.

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  56. jande9

    Ever since Reagan came up with the awful policy of boosting government spending while cutting taxes, these days of reckoning became inevitable. And now after 8 years of the economic madness of G.W.Bush, the future is here in spades.

    The US has become a deadbeat nation filled with deadbeats refusing to pay what you owe.

    You have to do two things. Cut your spending. BOOST YOUR TAXES.

    However, your media is (are?) too corrupt, your politicians are too afraid, and your citizens are too poorly educated to deal with this truth.

    The US has had a great run, although very short, but when your response to the mess you are in is the . . . Tea party!, I know you are officially done.

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  57. Jason

    Can we win one of those new VXX tshirts RC is talking about if we guess the date of the next crash 500pts or more? I say oct. 21st

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  58. Bullish

    @Jason, you will get the new “I missed the rally waiting for a 500 pt drop” t-shirt.

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  59. harmless

    Time for a nice quiet sunday brunch.
    http://www.biltmorehotel.com/dining/brunch.php

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    • TraderCaddy

      My High School in Miami used to play the Biltmore golf course as it’s home course.
      And my son played in an International Junior Golf tournament there about 7 years or so again.
      Tons of iguana hanging out in the trees along the canals about the 8th hole.
      Didn’t eat at the $75 breakfast buffet though.

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      • harmless

        Odd that you mentioned that. I had to stop my harley for an iguana today. Little bastid.

        The only trouble with the sunday brunch is that they follow you around with champagne bottles all morning (included in the price). If you aren’t careful, you’ll be wasted by 1 PM.

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        • TraderCaddy

          Careful on that Harley in Miami.
          Stay off of Bird Rd., Tamiami Trail,Useless 1 (US 1), and the Palmetto at rush hour.

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  60. Jason

    Ha, bullish you may be right i mean Cramer is bullish also! Im still long a few stocks, but it feels to me like i already missed the rally. How can i buy CMI at $85 or AAPL nearing $280 only to get egregiously scalped. Im staying in cash with VXX as a hedge to my few longs. I must admit i own a little TZA also, it does hurt a bit.

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  61. TraderRenn

    Hey Jake,

    I think what it means is… We are at an inflection point. The trading range is going to end and we will be left with a new trend. There are good arguments for the bearish and bullish case so who knows in this coin flip market. It has been a while since we saw this kind of activity – maybe something to track in the ppt?

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