It’s Not Luck

FTK guided up, making that 6 straight quarters of growth. Dare I say, I am on the cusp of making money on this dog. Cost basis is a touch below $2.09.

Might I add, buying HRBN on Friday had nothing to do with luck. It was divine intervention, on behalf of those celestial beings that love “The Fly” and what he stands for. I don’t expect you to understand. All I ask is that you appreciate the gravity of the situation.

Going with the Chinese Lotto theme, I stepped in a bought a boat-load of HEAT this morning. Can you blame me? Big short position on this one and those clam-lovers are pretty damn nervous now, in light of all the Chinese gambling being done on our exchanges.

I’m still short AEM and MELI, as well as long VXX. However, I have made arrangements to neutralize my VXX worm-hole, via outstanding, kick-ass, grand slam, double digit melt up takeover plays.

Friday’s buys were HRBN and FTK. Losing streak over.

Carry on, small plebs. Carry on.

UPDATE: I bought 30,000 HEAT. See you coffin-stuffers later.

It’s not about feedback, good friends from the internets. It’s about control and how it pertains to a message. What is the message? You are asking the wrong questions. The correct question is what isn’t the message?

The answer to that is drivel.

Like in all facets of life, this website is riddled with lowly life forms, people unable to see their balls when showering. I am talking about the fat guy, with his hand in his ass, typing on the computer—attempting to address superior life forms. Trading aside, small plebs, this is about life. This website is representative of who I am; therefore it must conform to the highest standards, well deserving of 3 Michelin stars.

Because of this fact, I’ve been forced into mass bannings. It’s quite the spectacle, my moderation file and all. You see, I do not want to do it; but I have no choice. You must understand, once again: it’s not about you. Having said that, do you believe a person, such as myself, likes blogging like the wind every day?

Answer: unfortunately, no.

But then again, do schools have to open every day? Do lawyers need to conduct themselves with the most disdainful moral behavior, west of Afghanistan?

Yes.

It is my burden; therefore, I will carry this load for the benefit of mankind.

iBC is where the internet homeless guy gets jacked for his cup of coins and tossed into oncoming traffic!

So you know, there is a secret to blogging, with respect to gaining popularity. I guarantee you, I could leave iBC today, start a new site under an anonymous name, and be as successful as I am today, with regards to traffic and internet swagger. It would be no different than Babe Ruth hitting homeruns in Mexico, instead of here. Do not even think about asking me what the secret is, for it is none of your concern. Just know and understand, “The Fly” is the BlogFather of this game here. The rest of you are simply limping along, like retards in potato sacks, trying to keep up.

This website thing makes me sick. Everyone is so damn snarky, with smug remarks and offhanded comments. You take a person and put him in a situation where he has to make real life decisions, based around real people and real expensive cars to be had, when it’s all at stake: he folds. On the other hand, you put him on the internet and he is a freakin’ rock-star, professing the secrets to success, while he has none of his own to speak of. Pardon my candor, but can you do it when it really counts?

A long time ago I was in business with a partner. Even though I haven’t talked to him in many years, I still love him like a brother. That’s just how I am; the door is always open. Our rapport broke down because he needed too much from me and showed little appreciation when he received it. Got it? In other words, I carried the big bricks, while he sort of tagged along for the ride. It was his smugness, in a way, that led to the dissolution of our joint venture and our friendship. His mantra was to organize, organize, organize. But, at the end of the day, he did nothing, while I ran the staff through fiery rings and executed one big ticket after the next.

See where I am going with this?

Good.

Monday morning I meet with my tax attorneys to discuss shelters. After that, I am meeting with a good friend of mine, who manages 700 million dollars, along with his buddy who wants to seed me in a new hedge fund. After that, I will drive home and then talk to you retards. I’ve been doing this since I was 15 years old. I haven’t lost money since 2002. Some years were awesome, like 2003, 2008, 2009. Other years were mediocre, like 2004, 2006, 2007 and year to date. The hilarious part about my mediocre years, pardon the sudden onslaught of smugness, is the fact that I was up more than 25%.

Don’t email me with investment tips. Do not leave comments here, giving me internet pats on the back. I am a lion, while you are just sheep walking about the yard.

Back to my $200 bottle of vino.

Classic Krull

Every so often, I get zinged with trades, because of my convictions. Typically, due to asset allocation, methodical positioning, I am able to weather the storm, especially since the market chops a lot.

Here’s what went wrong:

I held onto 40-50% of cash+treasuries for 2/3rds of this run. The problem was not how retarded my TZA trade treated me. I want you to remember, I bought a shrill-load of TNA for a nice run, had the TZA for a nice run etc, several times before this recent foray. Just to put things into perspective: my account was up 250%, now it’s up 125%. It is an experiential account that exclusively trades The PPT mean reversion signals. It got this one wrong, or I misinterpreted it. Believe me, we are working hard to correct this error. For as good and awesome as The PPT is as a tool, I am much more focused on fine tuning the algorithm, so that it can pick up anomalies, such as this recent run. Frankly, our computers have no idea of the insidious nature of QE2. Had this been a “normal” market, I am sure it would have nailed the OVERBOUGHT range.

As we speak, we are developing a momentum algorithm, which will be added to The PPT, when finished, free of charge. More on that later.

My monster mistake was not choking off the VXX damage. I am stubborn, so I cannot say “I should have sold it.” Honestly, there is no scenario, given the recent facts, that would make me take off a downside position. I am emphatic about my beliefs that we will trade lower, in dramatically gay fashion. But, that should not preclude me from picking up trades. Truth be told, I haven’t even looked for ideas, until my recent AKS buy. I cannot remember a time in my career when I was not actively looking for trades. I am embarrassed by that fact and will work to correct my laziness.

Although I wanted the market to go down; I knew it would go up. It’s hard to explain; but I am sure many of you can resonate with that statement.

From here, I will be very active in taking short term trades. Do not expect me to come out of the gates with monster winners. It will take time to get my swing back. But, rest assured, before the turkey is on my plate, I will be back to all-time highs.

Top picks: Chinese Lotto. See me in PPT for details.

I sold out of all of my TZA and TLT, one for a break-even, the other for an atrocious loss. Big give back in my personal/aggressive accounts, to say the least. Believe it or not, they are still up triple digits, thanks to earlier victories. Lesson learned, time to move on.

With some of the TLT money, I bought 25,000 shares of HRBN and more FTK. So you know, I have millions in FTK.

In short, I am still long lots of VXX and my unbooked losses are in the millions. But, over the past few days, I’ve been buying some stocks, in an effort to crawl out of the murderhole I find myself in. Top longs include: FTK, AKS, HRBN, C and TEVA. Without hesitation, I will switch back to the FAZmobile, only this time when the trend says so.

Essentially, I have 40%+ cash, short MELI, short AEM, long VXX and the longs mentioned above.

I appreciate all of the prodding of my fellow iBankCoiners, for trying to get me long this market. Believe me, I value your insights and candor. Having said that, I no longer desire to live in this country and have decided to move, once again, to the mountains of Romania, where I will run the green fields naked and raise goat for food. This life on Wall Street is not for me any longer.

If you are wondering how “The Fly” feels about today’s tape, look no further than this eloquent, insightful video.

Off to live a noble life in Romania.

The yen is ripping higher again. Some people, like Hugh Hendry, believe it is heading for $60, due to massive repatriation of capital by big multi-national Japanese companies. By doing so, a domino effect will ensue and a total and complete collapse of the Japanese economy. I have no idea if this will occur. However, there are people putting billions of dollars into this theory.

So far, the market is acting as if nothing happened today, trading listlessly without any semblance of passion. My AKS position is up, thanks to AA. I bought it because I thought it could outperform in a bad tape, so far, so good.

My TLT position is ripping higher too, which represents about 25% of my assets. I believe it will trade above $110 by Thanksgiving.

Speaking of which: by no means will I have short positions going into Thanksgiving. If you’ve been reading me for more than 1 year, you know “The Fly” is a HUGE fan of the Turkey Gods. They are powerful and make equities go higher. So, all of my bearish sentiments must be resolved, over the next 2-3 weeks.

I shorted more MELI this morning, based upon the idea that retarded stocks must kneel before profit takers, at some point, similar to what is occurring to the shares of FFIV.

Bill Ackman took stakes in both JCP and FO. The JCP is interesting because of what they did to LIZ. In a nutshell, they bought all rights to the Claiborne brand, thanks to the ineptitude of the LIZ management team. Then, they pulled Claiborne “gear” from Macy’s, in an attempt to lure old seahags to shop at JCP. You know, those who are loyal to the Claiborne brand. I am sure they will make a killing using this strategy.

In closing, foreclosures are being halted across the country, because the paperwork is faulty. Potentially, this can cause a whole new crisis, as the owners and bag holders of MBS can now sue JPM, BAC, WFC or whoever, for selling them mortgages that were not legitimate. One thing is for sure: Halting foreclosures is HORRIBLE for the housing market, as it leaves the cancer in place to fester.

We are now at the highest level of underemployment since the depths of the credit crisis in 2009, at 17.1%. On that news, TLT is going higher and futures are improving. The market is QE 2in’ and the economy is an after thought.

Consider the following:

U.S. corporations do not care about the U.S. It’s true. Most of our big companies (thank God) conduct 70% of their business abroad. Do you think KO or CAT cares about some poor schmuck in Ohio? Ha! The underemployment issue is a political problem and it’s your neighbors problem. It has nothing to do with the stock market, at least not to a large degree.

I’m a HUGE supporter of globalization, despite the fact that it has destroyed large sections of my country. The way I see it: hey if they don’t care (D.C.) why should I?

TLT is upticking and the dollar is back in the dirt, based upon the idea that the Fed will spend another “trill” to improve underemployment by 0.4%.

In closing, aside from the stock market, do you realize your country is on the decline? Do you understand what is going on here and how this will affect your children/grandchildren? It doesn’t make any sense to spend another trillion or two to improve the jobs market by 0.4%. We need real stimulus through tax cuts. We need programs that will promote innovation, the financing of small businesses. I chide my good friend Jakegint for his passionate viewpoints regarding politics. He is a believer and I am not. But, believe you me, I want nothing more than to share his passion and get behind some good/honest leaders, who will help this country get out of its malaise. Look, we all know what needs to be done, in order to get people back to work. Sadly, I am not sure this country has the leadership to change direction. After all, corporate America is perfectly content with their soaring sales in China. We are nothing more than an afterthought.

NOTE: I am still bearish, more so than ever before. To hell with FFIV.

Most of you are perma-bulls, pretending to be “technicians.” So please, spare me with the details of how awesome you are, with regards to this run. Frankly, broken clock trading works on both sides of the spectrum, every so often. Let me see you bob and weave this market, like I have for over 15 years, then get back to me with lessons from your alleged pearls of wisdom.

A good friend of mine runs a pretty big staffing company, specializing in IT. He reports: “vapor-lock on jobs, bro.” The jobs market is dead, unless of course you are being spoon fed federally sponsored job programs, which favors the poor over qualified, skilled workers. Things are wretchedly awful for him, much to my chagrin.

However, bad news could be good news, in a world where QE II is the elixir to all that is bad and evil. We could have a scenario where the numbers are bad, but the market trades up anyway. Naturally, the chart people, from the basement, will praise their bollinger bands, as to the reason why the markets kept going up. But, if I might intervene with a bit of logic: your methods exclude any notion of mean reversion, which is the sweetest part of investing to begin with. Let’s just agree to disagree on methodology and market bias. Always remember, while you might be right today, “The Fly” will toss you off a building, just prior to snatching your man-purse, tomorrow.

I’ve been doing this for too long, successfully, than to even contemplate the idea of you giving me financial advice.