Be the Elephant

Learn to be patient. Add by subtracting.

Today was not meant for me to do much, so I did little. I sold my GLW, which effectively greatly increased my VXX exposure, as GLW was one of my largest long positions. That was enough. I walked away and haven’t thought about the market since.

I will have my day and I will end up victorious. Rest assured, the markets are bounded by certain mathematical formulas. As it happens, I am in possession of said treasures and use them while traveling through space, in my fucking rocket.

In my opinion, the earnings warnings will come home to roost. Analysts will downgrade investor favorites to “stay ahead of the curve.” The cycle of lower expectations has begun.

Trade accordingly.

Ignore today’s warning from SLAB at your own peril. Ignore Samsung’s warning, speaking of “DRAM gluts”, and lose your limbs during the next semiconductor down-cycle. There is a reason why INTC is cheap. Frankly, I am done trying to hold onto tech. As a result, first thing this morning, I blew out of my GLW position. It was one of my biggest. Instead of playing whack-a-mole with tech, I’d much prefer another industry for my hard earned investment dollars. Thank you very much.

Hell, I am better off playing commodities, than tech. Essentially, any sector, with marked exception to the degeneracy of biotech, is better than tech. Your smartphone is dead; long live your fucking steel plant.

We’re off to a decent start this morning, with FXY, UUP and TLT down. Risk, for now, is back in play!! YEAH, BABY!!

Nah, just kidding. I am not impressed. Into this nonsense, I will raise more cash.

On a serious note, breadth is very good and this rally should stick. However, I do not have an interest in playing it today.

I want to have a very open and forthright discussion with many of you. Due to the colourful [sic] language and boastful demeanor that I exude, most of you believe “The Fly” is some sort of arrogant prick, who cares about nothing but himself and his stupid/preposterous sized rib eyes (2 1/2 inch thick). Well, most of the time that shit is true. I couldn’t care less about most of you, with your discourteous behavior and low IQ ways. However, I do appreciate the candor, just prior to banning your dumb asses forever. If you thought this blog post was going to morph into some bullshit heartfelt message, think again motherfuckers. “The Fly’s” dick swings low and you are nothing more than dust. Poof.

As far as I see it, you fuckers owe me gratitude and random gifts of tribute, for all of the time machine magic I send your way. Where else can you find a mathematical algorithm (The PPT), for retail use, at $29.99 per month as per annual subscription, with a level of accuracy never seen before, especially by you ham and eggers? I am in the industry of managing money on a professional level. This is a level much greater than your local broker. A level far and above most hedge fund managers, if not all of them combined, and more.

I beg of you one thing and one thing only:

PLEASE SHUT THE FUCK UP when I am banking coin. It distracts me from the task at hand and fills my large “calculator brain” with descriptive visions of uncontrolled violence. I appreciate your cooperation in this regard.

In closing, the beatings will continue, until you capitulate and I am able to purchase your margin liquidation. Understand something, you have a choice, either take it or get raped. It’s up to you.

Good day.

We’d be down more than 2% today. I know the metals do not hold the weighting to avoid such a decline. However, bulls look to those names as leadership. When the leadership is strong, bulls tend to hold onto their sell tickets. Look at the other sectors getting lit up today and ask yourself “does this make sense?”

Answer: of course it doesn’t, you stupid jackass.

I will make this simple for you. Europe is today’s boogieman. As a result, the euro is getting smashed to pieces, lending “apeman” strength to the dollar. The yen is powering forward, further destroying the entire country of Japan, Godzilla style. And, finally, TLT is ridiculous to the upside, as predicted by certain seasonality trends. This is a bad recipe for a rally. I am not ruling out a rally tomorrow. Understand me now, I am ruling out a rally for today.

My longs include FTK, iBN, C, BAC, GLW, GS, amongst others. I have decent exposure to financials and massive VXX positions. On a personal level, I am about 75% invested in TZA. The other 25% is cash, which will be reserved for dip buying opportunities. Essentially, you do not need to understand my methodology; but you must respect my pimp-hand–for it is strong.

I added to my TZA position, $32.60.

Disclaimer: If you buy TZA because of this post, you will become paralyzed with fear, unable to venture outside to water your lawn. And, you may lose money.

“The Fly” would be the guy swinging on the rope, fyi.

I’ve decided to become a bearshitter today, while eating carrots and watching the teevee. Don’t worry, my condition will not be permanent, as I too am bounded by certain mathematical laws. However, if there is ever a proper time to be a bearshitter, it is now. Having said that, I hope you are viewing FXY and TLT through your bifocals, man, because that action has “NAGASAKI NOW!” written all over it.

We simply cannot rally with the dollar greasing its way higher. And, furthermore, we are more likely to get smashed like a plantain in a Dominican restaurant with TLT ripping tits off to the upside. Remember, the answers to this game are easy to find; you have to know what the questions are.

I’ve taken the liberty to add to my TZA position in the low $32’s. And, as you know, I sold out of many of my longs on Friday—in order to let my VXX run. For all intents and purposes, The PPT flagged OVERBOUGHT this morning, with a score of 3.14, after closing at 3.09 on Friday. While it’s true, the OVERBOUGHT signal has been less reliable than the 100% accurate OVERSOLD variety, it is still a tool of mathematical precision.

In other words, prepare the to be awed again, as HORATIO CLAWHAMMER pisses rain on his enemies from his citadel.

Top picks: VXX, TZA

You lazy clam-fuckers have been vacationing all summer long, going on road trips, laughing it up with your stupid friends, all the while dining on “summer fare” consisting of “light foods” with lemon zest and olive oil on it and shit. Well, I am here to inform you, by way of this blog, that your summer is over. It’s time for you to throw on the old “business uniform” and advance your career. When I say “business uniform,” I expect you to wear suit and tie, especially when reading this website, fyi. When you go to Yankee games or whatever team you choose to root for, like mindless idiots, do you see those billionaire baseball playing gentlemen striking out while donning t-shirts? FUCK NO. Those motherfuckers wear jerseys, because it is their uniform. Well, your uniform is suit and tie. If I catch you in dockers, I will split your head, 2 for 1.

As “The Fly” celebrates Labor Day, there is much work to be done. I care not to discuss the great many intricacies of my business life, as that information is proprietary and worth many millions of dollars. However, I will tell you that I am prepared to rip the spines out of my enemies (mortal kombat style), if need be.

With regards to the market: I am anticipating a pull-back from current levels. Last weeks rally was a deathblow of sorts to short-sellers, especially since everyone was caught leaning (135%). However, this bottoming out business is an arduous process. I expect a pullback until late September-early October, then a hockey stick to the face rally until Thanksgiving. But, it’s important to remember how fucked up August was, when betting on a September decline. It’s very possible we might only get a 1-2% pullback, so don’t bet the fucking farm on a collapse.

Finally, we’ve been developing new tools for The PPT, that will shock and amaze all who subscribe. Just so you know, I am keeping most new features in BETA mode, exclusive for my usage, until the official launch of PPT 2.0, hopefully just in time for X-MAS.

Let this be a lesson to all of you out there.

I will offer portfolio updates this weekend. Don’t forget to sign up for one week free trial to Scott’s service. I will be shutting that window on Monday.

Following my recent sales, my largest long position is BAC, based upon a number of things, all to do with valuation. Analysts estimate with “normalized” earnings, the stock is worth $25. However, I don’t give a shit what they think. As long as the long bond comes down, I am a net buyer of BAC. It really is as simple as that. The banks have been bludgeoned and will lead this market higher, providing we sustain the recent rally.

The rationale behind my recent sales has more to do with short term market timing, than longer term macro shit. Longer term, I like the valuations of GLW, BAC, FTK, iBN, GS, GMCR, C, TEVA and SHLD, which is why I still own them.

On a slow Friday afternoon, ahead of a long holiday weekend, THERE IS NO FUCKING WAY I AM SHORTING STOCKS HERE OR BUYING TZA. In my opinion, if you want to short stocks, Tuesday afternoon might represent a very good entry point—not now Lord Fuck Face of the Berkshires.

With today’s sales, I am about 30% cash.