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Tag Archives: $QQQ

The Pole Climb

Nasdaq futures are steaming higher premarket. Price was up nearly 10 handles on the session ahead of the Nonfarm Payroll data and continued higher after. The big surprise in the data was the 85k revision to last month’s figure making it that much worse—perhaps easing investors’ concern The Fed will raise short term interest rates soon. A big bounce in construction helped today’s number. Overall the news was interpreted as positive.

Also on the docket today is the Baker Hughes Rig count at 1pm.

Big moves tend to occur where market profile shows a thin history. We call these areas zippers or single prints. In the instances where a large set of single prints is above, I like to think of it like a pole or rope. I was discussing this feature yesterday on twitter, and you can still slightly see it, though it has been partially filled in. See below:


Heading into today, my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the reaction move and test down to 4433 before finding buyers and choppy, two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 is a gap and go higher, a strong surge at the open morphs into a slow grind up to 4474. If sellers no show here then we continue to 4491.25.

Hypo 3 is return to NFP “crime scene” 4412 and two way trade enses.

Hypo 4 blow through pre NFP mark 4412 and test the lower balance at 4400.

Levels are pictured above.

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Big Session Overnight

Nasdaq futures went for a ride overnight. On the session price printed over a 40 point range on abnormal volume. Most of the session was dominated by buyers until after 5am when sellers showed up inside the 04/07 range.

At 8:30am intial/continuing jobless claims data was out and has seen price lower slightly. Also up on the docket today is Natural Gas storage figures at 10:30am and Consumer Credit at 3pm. The big data is out tomorrow morning when we here the monthly change in NonFarm Payroll.

Yesterday sellers pushed off the open to take out Tuesday’s low early on and sellers continued pushed for most of the session. Comments from Fed Chair Yellen about equity valuations being high may have spooked investors. By early afternoon we closed the open gap dating back to 4/17. Toward the end of the day we saw a ramp higher.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to push into the early morning globex inventory to 4349.75 before buyers step in and work us higher. Look for buyers to take out overnight high 4379.

Hypo 2 sellers take out overnight low 4332.50 to target 4310 before buyers step in and 2-way trade ensues.

Hypo 3, buyers push off the open to target 4390 before sellers come in and two way trade comes in.

Hypo 4 strong rally up through 4396 sets up a secondary push to 4432.


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Slippery Location To Start The Session

The Nasdaq is trading lower premarket. A few attempts were made to push price higher and each was met with quick reversal, suggesting the early perception of these prices is one of excess.

Trade Balance data was out at 8:30am and served to accelerate the index selling to session low. Also on the agenda today is the ISM Non-Manufacturing index at 10am.

Yesterday we opened gap up and had a strong early drive into last Wednesday’s range before finding sellers. We then spent the rest of the session rotating lower, not quite filling the overnight gap. Sellers did manage to close the range gap however, which likely gave sellers confidence to hold overnight.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for sellers to continue pushing off the open. Look for buyers around 4450 but if they no show then liquidation down to 4435.50.

Hypo 2 buyers push into the overnight inventory to test up through to 4470 where sellers defend and two-way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 buyers push a full gap fill up to 4476.25 and set up a secondary leg higher to 4490.75. If buyers can take out this level the weak high at 4503.50 becomes a target.

Hypo 4 gap and go drive down, take out 4435 and continue to test 4420.


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Morning Nasdaq Report

Nasdaq futures are set to gap up as we head into a fresh week. Volume is running normal and range is elevated a bit above normal, but overall it was an orderly auction. Price managed to push down into the upper quad of Friday’s range before finding buyers who worked up into last Wednesday’s value.

Heading into today the economic calendar is quiet. At 10am month-over-month Factory Orders are out, a medium impact number. However, most of the weight will be on Friday’s Non-Farm Payroll data, with Wednesday’s ADP employment change and Thursday’s Initial/Continuing jobless claims serving as appetizers.

Last week the Nasdaq managed to make a new contract high on Monday before rolling over and spending most of the week trading lower. It wasn’t until late Thursday afternoon that buyers emerged with enough conviction to entice initiative buyers onto the tape.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for buyer to push a bit higher, but stall out around 4484.50-4490. I will look for sellers to close the overnight gap down to 4467.50. If buyers aren’t found here then continue lower to test below overnight low 4457. This could lead to an acceleration, especially if we trade below 4445.

Hypo 2 buyers push up through 4490 and grind higher to target 4517.

Hypo 3 we chop and build value between 4489 and 4457.


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New Month, Radical Change in Behavior

After nearly two weeks of globex volume running hot, last night comes around, and the action is completely benign. Nasdaq futures are up overnight on a range that’s high-end normal on low volume.

There’s a news dump at 10am, including ISM Manufacturing, Construction Spending, ISM Prices Paid, and University of Michigan’s final Confidence read for April.

Yesterday most closely resembled a trend day down. It may constitute a triple-distribution trend day, if such a name existed. Toward the end of the session buyers came in, about halfway into the 4/20 range. If you recall, 4/20 was two Mondays ago, and we started with a gap up and ran all day—in essence it was a conviction day.

So we have two combating forces here which will tell the major story going into the weekend. Market Profile theory states that any entry in the direction of the trend on a trend day is a risk-free entry into the following session, meaning, we are likely to at least go one tick below the trend day low in the following session. The other force is the proclivity of a conviction day to be defended.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for a choppy open until we hear the economic data points at 10am. After, I will look for sellers to push into the overnight (and late-yesterday afternoon) inventory and test their conviction. If sellers can trade below 4409 I will look for them to test yesterday’s low 4386.50.

Hypo 2 is we muddle around north of 4400 in choppy, two-way, Friday trade.

Hypo 3 is we gap-and-go, demonstrating some v-shape tendencies. Look for responsive selling up at 4452.

Hypo 4 is we test higher early on, to 4432, then reverse and continue working lower to test Thursday low 4386.50. If liquidation takes hold look for a gap fill down to 4349.50.



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Longs Were Liquidated Overnight

Nasdaq futures are lower overnight. Sellers managed to extend the range just a touch beyond first sigma, doing so on normal volume.

The first thing that jumped out this morning was the overnight profile structure, a lovely lowercase-b check it out:


It was even more pronounced before the 8:30am data. This type of profile suggests a long liquidation took place. A long liquidation is a temporary phenomenon where order flow is created by stops being run. This type of print, in the context of a bigger uptrend, tends to occur at-or-near the inflection point—a welcoming development on the weak week.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for buyers to fill the overnight gap, pushing trade up to 4478.75. From there we will see if they can take out the overnight high just above at 4479.50. Overall I’m looking for sellers to defend the region from 4485-4490 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 is buyers push through 4490 and sustain trade above it to set up a leg higher to target Tuesday’s gap up to 4515.50.

Hypo 3 is sellers continue working lower, take out overnight low 4452. Look for responsive buyers at 4442.50 then 4433.

Levels are pictured above.

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Weak GDP Pushes Nasdaq into Pro Gap Territory

Nasdaq futures are lower overnight on a slightly elevated range but normal volume. Price drifted lower for much of the night session and the selling accelerated after the GDP data came out much weaker than expected.

Heading into today, we are on the cusp of a pro gap. However, due to the large range printed yesterday, we are still set to open inside prior day range.

Yesterday we saw Monday’s selling accelerate down into the Thursday/Friday gap and fill it before finding a strong responsive buyer. Once found we spent the rest of the morning trading higher before fizzling out about half way into Monday’s range.

On the agenda today we have Pending Home Sales at 10am, Crude Oil inventory at 10:30am, and the FOMC rate decision at 2pm.

My primary expectation this morning is for buyers to push into the overnight inventory. If they can push through 4500 then look for a gap fill up to 4515.50 before we quiet down and wait for the FOMC.

Hypo 2 sellers drive down off the open to test yesterday’s low 4471.75 and if they break through look to test 4459 and if that cannot hold then a liquidation trade may take hold.



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Nasdaq futures are stable and traded a normal range and volume overnight despite the earnings reaction in Apple shares, the riots in Baltimore, and the continued uncertainty in Greece. As important as those events are, participants may already have their attention on Wednesday when we will hear the GDP stats in the morning and FOMC rate decision in the afternoon.

Yesterday we started strong but soon reversed and spent most of the session trading lower.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for buyers to push into the overnight inventory and target the overnight high 4533. Look for sellers to show up near 4539 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 we stall out around 4530 and churn sideways between there and 4515.

Hypo 3 sellers work back in to target overnight low 4514.25 then 4509 to open up a gap trade down to 4482.50.



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Let’s Be Clear

Nasdaq futures are higher overnight on a session featuring normal volume and range. Sellers had something going in the early AM hours but by 5am they waffled their opportunity and higher the prices continued.

The economic calendar is quiet this morning. We have Markit Composite/Service PMI at 9:45am. Several sources expressed concern over the lack of participation by semiconductors during last week’s tech rally, and news from AMAT already has the industry in focus again, to start the week. However the most notable external event will likely be Apple earnings, scheduled for release after market close.

Last week we traded higher throughout the week, quickly, leaving three open gaps in our trail. This suggests aggressive other time frame activity occurred during the week. The week was capped off Friday with a big gap up and a double distribution trend day.

Let’s be clear about where the Nasdaq currently stands. Yes, we did manage to mark a new all-time closing high last week. However, the real all-time high, the glory shot, is still about 37 Nasdaqs higher. You can see it below on the following weekly composite chart:

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for seller to push into the overnight inventory and trade down to 4532.75 before two-way trade ensues, leaving another open gap behind.

Hypo 2 is buyers continue exploring higher, right from the open, and we trend higher to 4575.25 before finding responsive selling.

Hypo 3 sellers push a full gap fill down to 4529 before two-way trade ensues.

Levels are highlighted below:


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Navigating The Highlands

Nasdaq futures are up overnight on an abnormal range and volume over second sigma. Fueling the action overnight in part were earnings from major tech corporations Google, Microsoft, and Amazon. This morning we heard from a few big biotech names including Biogen and AstraZeneca who are both trading lower. This may trigger a rotation away from the hot space and into tech.

At 8:30am Durable Goods Orders came in with a big beat on the headline number. We also have the Baker Hughes US Rig Count at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation day up with a distinct amount of afternoon imitative buying. The action set us up to fill the open gap left behind March second and had enough fuel in the tank to push us to new contract highs.

Market profile loses a bit of its might when we trade up in open air. Whenever we break a significant level it’s a good idea to take a high level snapshot of the action and see where we are. As you can see on the following weekly Nasdaq composite chart, were are almost to all time high on the index:


We can still do measured moves to put some working levels on the chart, as you will see on the white volume profile chart below.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for sellers to push into the overnight inventory and work down to 4506 before finding buyers and a Friday, two-way grind ensues.

Hypo 2 is buyers drive off the open and make a move up to 4518.25 before finding responsive sellers and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 is a strong, gap and go drive to target 4527 with a stretch target of 4538.50.

Hypo 4 is a drive down, gap fill to 4482.50 with a continuation move down to 4450.75.



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