NASDAQ Continues To Throw Extreme Sessions Down

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday gap up after a Globex session featuring extreme, 3rd sigma, range and volume.  The session was balanced overall but did manage to exceed yesterday’s low before settling into two way trade.  As is always the case, a swing low made outside of regular trading hours is considered suspect.  At 8:30am Initial/Continuing Jobless Claims data came out worse than expected.  The initial reaction is a small amount of buying.

Also on the economic calendar we have a 30-Year bond auction resuming at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a trend day down.  Price opened gap up and sellers made short work of filling the overnight gap which opened the door up for a test below overnight low.  Initial responsive buyers in this area were overrun and we spent the rest of the day trending lower and making a new swing low.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 4175.50.  From here I will look for a test down to overnight low 4152.  Look for responsive buyers just below this level and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers make a gap and go higher.  They take out overnight high 4214.75 early on and find responsive seller ahead of 4224 settling up into two way trade.

Hypo 3 buyers push up through 4224 and sustain trade above it setting up a pole climb up to 4262 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 4 sellers work gap fill down to 4175.50, take out overnight low 4152 and liquidation takes hold.  Stretch targets to the downside are 4119.50 then 4074.75.

Levels:

This can’t have anything to do with an actual oil barrel costing twice as much as the tar mud it holds, right?

A general lack of interest for the news outlet in the United States is being cited as the cause for shutting down Al Jazeera America.  Citizens of the United States are now forced to resume viewing their news from Fox and CNN.  For a more frisky take on world events, they can tune into BBC America.  Russia is holding strong with RT America, but after April you can kiss news with a Qatari kiss goodbye.

Trend day logic activated.  When we have a trend day, market profile theory states any entry taken in the direction of the trend is ‘risk free’ heading into the following session.  This is based on the high probability that we exceed today’s session low, if only by a tick, tomorrow.

With that in mind, and the entire financial system being stress tested, it behooves you to lay off the buy orders today.  Tomorrow perhaps you buy.

If you are already nuts to the wall long, your fate is a cruel one.  There is nothing redeeming about this tape.

NASDAQ futures are priced for a gap up today after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price rallied after cash closed and continued higher early this morning before coming into balance around last Friday’s high.  Price managed to rally through President Obama’s last State of The Union Address last night and bulls have been defending the progress since.

On the economic calendar today we have crude oil inventory data at 10:30am.  This may carry elevated importance to stocks since the commodity broke the $30 handle yesterday.  We also have a 1pm auction of 10-Year Treasury notes, and both the Monthly Budget Statement and Fed Beige Book at 2pm.

Yesterday price opened pro gap up and after buyers drove off the open the action was faded–first to recapture the Monday range then the entire gap was filled.  Buyers stepped in late in the session and pushed price higher but we ultimately faded back to the mean.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory, but look for buyers to defend around 4337.50.  From there look for a move to take out overnight high 4365.  Buyers accelerate from here to target the strange 10/21 gap left behind at 4398.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers test above overnight high 4365 and and find responsive sellers setting up a tight two way chop trade between 4350 and 4370.

Hypo 3 sellers work a full gap fill down to 4312.75 then set their sights on overnight low 4306.75. Look for responsive buyers around 4294.75 and two way trade ensues.

Levels:

In his final State of the Union Address, President Obama took a victory lap on the progress the United States has made with clean energy.  He cites the decimation of the coal industry, something still plaguing Chinese lungs at precipitous rates.  He also touts a 60% reduction in foreign energy purchases.  He also gives a shoutout to all the hard working solar panel installers, check it out:

Literally all at once Snapchat is being thrust onto the main stage of social media.  If you are looking for a catalyst, my best guess is DJ Khaled.  Yes, the DJ guy who shouts his name out at the beginning of rap songs.  The White House did a copycat snap depicting Khaled’s “major key” catch phrase during an ominous night-walk video.  The social media company is not wasting time flexing their business muscles either.  According to Reuters, Snapchat wants to get into the roboadvisory business.

They see their target audience, mostly millennials, as a group who collectively want more input into the way their money is managed.  This is extremely interesting.  I have taken to putting out tons of content on snapchat after realizing how simple it is to use.  The feedback has been insane. I am seeing way more interaction then I do on Twitter or the blog.  I can definitely see using the platform as a money manager.  As for Snapchat being the actual advisor, I am not so sure.

I think it makes more sense to have an intermediary of sorts, but perhaps that is just my attempt at making financial professionals relevant.  Right away I see the potential for this platform to disrupt the money management business–but my perception is for advisors to streamline interaction with their clients via the simple face-to-face interaction.  This could just be wishful thinking.  Perhaps millennials, even high net-worth ones, would rather prefer to make their own financial decisions.

At least until they blow up a few accounts.

Bottom line–if you are in finance and unaware of how disruptive Snapchat is to our industry, fret not.  I am all-in on Snapchat this year, I get it.  I realize just how powerful this platform is and how it perfectly fits into the social media ecosystem.  It is likely to be the biggest one of all.  I’m serious.  If you follow me, you will get up to the minute updates on the order flow in the stock market.  I will also keep you abreast with the other ways this platform can improve your business.  If you do not have snapchat go now.  Get one.  Pray your name has not already been taken.  Then add me by my username, VCali.

Either you beat them or you join them, but change is one of the few inevitable forces in nature.  I intend to always and as much as possible go with the flow.  You should too.

NASDAQ futures are heading into Tuesday pro gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price started the globex session working lower and traded back down to value area low before again finding a sharp responsive bid down in the conviction levels printed back on October second.  The market then continued higher to take out yesterday’s high and push into the upper quadrant of last Friday before finding sellers.

The economic calendar is spattered with low/medium impact events here in USA, but we also have a 9:15am talk coming from Bank of England’s Mark Carney which may make for a choppy cash open.  Also on the docket we have JOLTS Job Openings at 10am, a 4-Week T-Bill Auction at 11:30am, and a 3-year T-Note auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we came into the week gap up and made short work of erasing the gap in downward trade.  Price pushed deep into the 10/02 conviction day before finding a strong responsive bid (much like globex this morning).  Buyers rushed in once a bid was established and we closed above the daily mid.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to push into the overnight inventory.  Look for a move down to 4278 then responsive buyers (responsive relative to the open, initiative relative to yesterday’s close) who step in and work to take out overnight high 4332.75.  Upside target is 4348.75.

Hypo 2 sellers work a full gap fill down to 4272 which sets up a move to test the interesting low volume node at 4257.  Look for responsive buyers here who defend and push higher to 4300 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 erase the overnight gap down to 4272 then push back down through value to test VAL 4243.  Sellers then target overnight low 4236.50.  This sets up a test of Monday low 4208.75.  Downside target is 4118.

Levels:

I just don’t know if I can trust this guy.  Mr Kirkpatrick throws shade on my homie Elon Musk several times during this Bloomberg interview.  Elon sees auto-driving cars in 2 years.  This guys says no way, and when we do see them it will be for fleet cars only.

He is missing the point entirely.  If Uber gets their hands on autonomous cars the entire world will change.  Cities will no longer be built around the car.  City blocks wasted as parking lots will vanish.  Homes will once again not need garages.

Also, the dude says only Tesla will be making a non-fleet autonomous car soon, but that the common man will not be able to afford them.  It is like he is completely unaware that Tesla plans to roll out their affordable Model III this spring.

You ever just want to correct someone with your fist but you have to use your words instead because you’re not a caveman?  That’s how I feel like right now.  The struggle:

A few of you can attest to this: I have been straight up killing it on Snapchat.  Something about being able to just whip out my phone and show you guys what I look at while trading has finally unlocked my ability to trade and share content.  But that is not the only reason you should get Snapchat and add me (Vcali) to you feed right now. These are some other reasons to get on Snapchat.

It is completely transforming every industry.  There is tons of new content springing up on Snapchat every damn day.  This morning, The White House made an account.

You will see more of me.  And I am really, really, extremely good looking.  It’s like messed up how good looking I am.  When I am not flaunting my fringe/champagne lifestyle I am working my ass off to show you guys what order flow trading is all about.

I will answer any questions you ask me on Snapchat with a video response.  Who needs email?  Do you have a question about Exodus or trading or the fall of the Roman Empire?  Ask me via text or video on Snapchat and I will respond to you.

I am going all in on Snapchat because it is a huge opportunity.  You need to figure out today how you can use their platform.  If I discover anything along the way, you will be the first to know by following me at Vcali.  We just traded the intra-day reversal live, for instance.

PS – do not be discouraged when your 16 year old nieces and nephews have Snapchat scores exponentially larger than yours.  They have been on it for years and all their friends are too.  Right now Snapchat is aging up, and all us nerds are discovering it.  Don’t be the last nerd my friend.

BONUS: I will follow back anyone who follows me so you can DM me your questions.  Another one.

BONUS #2: I’m gonna take care of you.  One time only, I posted my story to iBankCoin’s YouTube channel.  It looks like crap on YouTube (looks way better inside Snapchat) so this is one time only, so you can get an idea of how we do:

PS – Are you subscribed to our YouTube channel?  If not, please subscribe!  We are putting out tons of content over there.  Good content.

NASDAQ futures are coming into the week gap up after an extreme overnight session.  Both range and sigma pushed beyond 3rd sigma as price pushed down to a new swing low before reversing.  The market then managed to trade up to the scene of our late-Friday afternoon breakdown (which also aligns with last Thursday’s low). The market profile footprint left behind looks overall balanced.

On the economic calendar today we have Labor Market Conditions Change data at 10am followed by a 3- and 6-month Treasury Bill auction at 11:30am.

Last week we started Monday with a big pro gap down.  By end of day Monday we found a strong responsive buyer.  He was faded for most of Tuesday during a balanced session.  Wednesday opened pro gap down again but was balanced with strong responsive buyers.  Thursday opened pro gap down and after a strong responsive buy, the session rolled over and closed on the lows.

Friday opened gap up and slowly trended lower to close on the lows.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to push into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 4262.75.  Last Friday pushed into the October 2nd conviction (trend) day.  I expect buyers to defend this area.  However, I am looking for a move to take out overnight low 4226.25.  Look for responsive buyers ahead of 4188 and two way trade to ensue with strong responsive buyers stepping in.

Hypo 2 buyers use the gap up to force a short squeeze rally.  Look for a move to take out overnight high 4294 and target the 4300 century mark.  Then look for responsive sellers at 4308.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 strong buy, take overnight high 4294 early and sustains trade above 4308.50 setting up a leg to target 4332.75.  Stretch target is 4348.

Levels: