What a fantastically well day to be long the stock market, fine chaps.  Chip, chap-a-rue!  Looking at all of the indicators on the indices, and the profile development, you may have thought we would see some weakness today.  Certainly the extended nature of the markets as we entered a new month could raise concern.  However, the stock gods (no Buffet) would not have any part in a red Monday in March.  As a matter of fact, they saw fit to make it a rather green day for all the leprechauns peering at the sunrise.

Speaking of sunrise, did you catch my morning thoughts?  I’m sure most of you didn’t and that’s super great news.  I’m really not sure why I share such sage knowledge with you untidy troglodytes.  You’re better off being shown how to maintain proper hygiene, for instance, more than you should be taught anything else.  Anyhow, if you missed it, the plan was to cut long exposure if we traded south of 1509 on the S&P March future contract.  We didn’t, so I didn’t.  Actually, let’s look at what I did today.

Bought and sold RGLD, losing a dollar per share but nothing more

Bought some TRLA around 11am

Scaled some profits in ANGI amidst the HOD spike #flawless execution

Scaled some profits in ZNGA but retain a ½ position #readyformore

Bought CCJ down here on deal, per Premier Obama electing a #nuclear czar

Scaled some profits off on RH, the stock I bought near the LOD on Friday, easy five banger

I must say, all of that action was rather rewarding but at the same time left me parched.  Much water had to be consumed.  I walked to a cool river and drank side-by-side with a grizzly bear.  I noticed he caught a fish, a very tempered fish.  I slapped said fish from his mouth, setting it free into the river.  Then I mounted his fat body and demanded he become my transportation.  His stupid-harry head hung in shame as I rode him back to my trading terminal.  It was a good Monday.

Comments »

I’m currently participating in a pocket of high energy moves via these mobile internet/housing plays.  Take a look at TRLA, Z, and ANGI.  I’m long all three for the parlay. These stocks are gaining the attention of investors both for their expertise in the mobile/social platform and for their exposure to housing, which many believe to be resurging.

Courtesy of finvz.com

Comments »

I’m chopping away at the market this morning, zipping through the internet like an invisible ghost.  I’ll tell you something, I prefer it this way.  Fuck attention I only want to trade well and bank coin.  This site, this site right here, that you’re on, iBankCoin, this site, it was the beacon of truth.  In my eyes, there wasn’t a more pure place for people of the internet to gather and discuss the important matter of accumulating wealth and comporting yourself as a gentleman.

Now, I don’t even know.

Sure, rules were set at the beginning of my interim position.  And no, I did not meet the 3% goal for earning a tabbed home on the site.  Nobody did.  What did I do?

Propel my portfolio to all-time highs

Tell jokes

Spoon-feed winners

Get to the point

And now let me get to the point once again: I’m not going to change my style for internet attention.  I’ll keep writing here or elsewhere, and I couldn’t care less about who reads it.  It makes me sharper, talking to you cretins.

This morning I bought some TRLA and RGLD.  RGLD is already a loser and I’ll be selling it soon.  I told you I don’t like knife catching.  I had a plan based on the most recent swing, it didn’t work out, and I’m looking for a graceful exit.  Note that I used a tiny 1/3 position because I accepted the low probability of success.

I took a loss, BOOM!  It happens.  The key is limiting the downside.

What else?  I took a scale on ANGI during that REDICULIOUS spike up to $18.34, and reported it real time.  Get it while it’s here boy.

Now it’s all eyes on ZNGA.  Adios homos

 

Comments »

I went back to the seasonality analysis I performed at the beginning of February to reexamine how wrong of a conclusion I was able to draw from it.  I knew it was going to be ugly because my top pick from the data dig was ANR.  Have a look at ANR’s February performance:

I actually lost some money on that play, taking my third and final attempt at buying ANR as it tried to negate the head and shoulders pattern.  I sold around February 8^th aka the trough before their earnings announcement spike, then subsequent melt lower.

The wrongness of my analysis extended further when I predicted it would be a “very shiny February” because my seasonality interpretation supported the idea that miners would be strong in February.  BIG TIME WRONG, check out how awesomely wrong I was on this call:

Fortunately, I never committed any money to this call, I simply observed the play.  Every single chart in the space looked weak which made it easy to avoid.  ANR at least had a semblance of hope setting up in the price.  If you have a dog’s brain worth of technical analysis understanding and aren’t a long term investor, you would have stayed out of the miners this month.  You downright love losing money if you parked your stupid money in EXK for the month.  F-

Please accept my apologies if my seasonality data put a bug in your ear that was whispering false promises about the miners.  If you read along you would have stayed clear, but I understand how people can make rash financial decisions based on other people’s internet decisions.  Don’t do it.

With all of that in mind and because my access to The PPT has been revoked, there will be no March seasonality data dig.  This is likely better for everyone.  I don’t like to waste my time or yours by not adding value to your trading day.

I can’t tell you what will happen tomorrow, and I most certainly can’t predict what will happen over the course of a month.  I work in probabilities.  My probabilities are most reliable in the intraday to 3-12 day swing environment.

I posted all my thoughts on the #socials and their charts if you want some value added.  If you’re over 47.5 and don’t see that the word #socials is a hyperlink, let me be the first to tell you that if you click it you will be taken to a spectacle of charts.  Get excited you fossil.

Finally, I am not a huge fan of knife catching, but the rubber band is stretched out more than my nephew’s tee shirt after a trampoline wrestling match on a few of the miner charts.  I may dabble in the circus arts this week.  Similar setup on both of the following charts (click the charts to HUGE size them)

Comments »

YOU WANT PICKS, GO SOMWHERE ELSE AND DECIFER THE DRIVEL.

TOP PICK IS/WAS ZILLOW

Comments »

We’re seeing constructive action across the board in social stocks these last few days.  Encouraging the stocks to advance higher is the early stabilization in share of Facebook, which last week looked like it had made its way to the other side of the momentum mountain.

Eagar shorts (read: haters of the future) are now confronted with the fact that these companies are real and there is demand for their shares.

My two favorite plays in this budding space are ANGI and Z because they incorporate the housing resurgence into their mobile/social awesomeness.  But that doesn’t mean I don’t have a soft spot for the other players, in fact I own a few.

I’m also seeing the LED play work magic.  There was a huge move in RVLT today, and CREE continues to defy gravity.  I don’t own RVLT, and these spikes can be rather precarious conditions to initiate new longs into, but I think the company has an excellent opportunity to grow as LED adoption accelerates.  I still own shares of OESX.

The S&P is having a hard time reentering yesterday’s value which has me slightly cautious.  I took off my KORS and BX longs.  But overall, it’s been a constructive session.  I bought my RH back because homeowners who want some swagger shop here.

Comments »

If you wanted month end fireworks you had plenty to be excited about today.  The market was full of action everywhere.  These wide range days are a momentum traders dream because they give positions room to work.  The sell off into the bell took the cascading algorithm shape, where orders get jammed into the exchange severs at warp speed. 

Today was feeling like a tight, boring day in the futures, where the range was compressed down to ONLY ten handles.  Then there was a curious afternoon pop which stalled out no sooner than RaginCajun strapped on a festive TVIX bowtie.  

Underneath the surface there were big moves.  Solar stocks got dismantled following a weak day yesterday.  A few names survived the carnage, but overall a drubbing was had.  Here’s the data, courtesy of The PPT:

Zillow ripped while the rest of the mobile social space consolidated yesterday’s gains in a rather mild manner.

I missed reentry into $RH today.  The stock closed strong, and the name should be on your radar going into the weekend.  I’ll be looking to raise cash levels tomorrow, and I’m hoping I’m greeted by market conditions that allow such transactions.  Into this first week of March, I want high cash levels so I can stay objective and hone in on the bigger rotations taking place as investors position into the close of Q1.

Comments »

One of the most damaging mistakes trader can make is becoming too attached to a position.  Maybe they’re fan boys, maybe they hate the person on the other end of the trade, or perhaps their research is so awesome they can’t accept the fact that it was noise.  Whatever the case may be, I think it’s paramount you take on a trading flexible trading style for supporting your thesis.  For me, flexibility comes from scaling out of positions.

Let’s take today’s winner for example.  I put a position on this morning in Zillow.  I wrote a piece a few days back explaining my thoughts on trading this name to the long side.  When the market confirmed my plan with buy flow this morning, I put my position on.  I’ve learned the best trades are hard to grab ahold of.  That was the case today.  I was stalking, and as soon as I saw what I liked I had to jam the order in fast.  The position worked right off the rip, and before lunchtime we are already at my first target.

At this point your mind starts messing with you.

I was expecting this move to take a bit longer than two hours to reach my target, obviously there is a strong demand for shares of $Z, so my mind says, “Aye, take your target and shove it in your cannoli hole.”  My internal dialogue is always in an Italian-Brooklyn tone.  This is me getting attached to a position.  You know what comes next?  A shameover © when the peak forms.

But I’ll be the first to tell you missing additional upside because you’re trigger happy can feel worse than a losing position.  That’s why for me, the best methodology is to scale profits along the way.  Everyone is different, but now I’ve already put bread on my table.  If I want to stick with the position, my cost basis is now lower. Plus when this stock screams higher, I’ll keep getting paid.

I think most successful traders scale, but you don’t hear many of them preaching it.  Define your levels, use the charts, and build and scale your position accordingly.  This will remove any attachment to a single price level, and will keep your mind clearer to make better decisions.

Comments »

There are busloads of chartists and technicians being dropped off daily at the exchanges and they all have their favorite setups they trade.  What’s interesting is how two people can look at the same chart, two people with the same background in technicals, and see a different setup emerge.

It is a constructive exercise to consider what your opposition is thinking, and that is what I’m highlighting in this post about one of my current longs, KORS.  Where I see a buyable dip, another could certainly see this bear flag forming and could be either stalking a short on the break or positioning for such an event.  This is what makes a market, place your bets:

Comments »

Ladies and gentlemen I’ve done it again.  The session is wrapped up, the best day of the year for the Dow-as a matter of fact-and looking at my portfolio’s gains you would think I was levered long.  I gained 2.4% today even though I started the day with 50% cash.  Bananas, I know.  I had a couple monsters in my port though.  They did horrible things to the shorts today.

I was in a rather gregarious mood from the moment I woke up today, mostly stemming from the fact that I recaptured my raw tick data on the S&P March future contract.  When it was taken from me last night, it felt like the time my Spanish teacher took my magical deck of cards away.

He caught me shuffling one handed while we watched Salina and snatched the cards cold out of my hand.  I met him after class and kindly asked for the cards back since they were a gift from my parents.  I explained how they traveled to the mystical lands of Las Vegas for the cards, and how it was quite the journey.  I did not get my cards back, but was instead shown the trash bin, where he proudly displayed his work: he had cut each and every card in half.  I learned that day to never trust a Spaniard.

Anyway, with my data in tote and a fresh coat of snow on the ground, I smooth cruised (No Triumph) into the office.  As the day progressed, I started hearing the pump whispers.  It was time to throw out a few #trampstamps:

Here's 1500, first big test coming @ you 15 minutes in. Place YER bets

— Raul (@IndexModel) February 27, 2013

Man the dip turrets, man the dip turrets, prepare to engage

— Raul (@IndexModel) February 27, 2013

#pump #pomp #pomo

— Raul (@IndexModel) February 27, 2013

I was in a gregarious mood then, it carried throughout the session and before I knew it my 50% cash became 30% and I had many more shares of CMG, ZNGA, ANGI, and CREE.  Hell I bought some KORS too, hoping to get elizamae back hooked on that crack.  Now I have a bit of a shameover © because a few of the names lost crucial ground at the bells.  But like a proper bad influence I have BIG Ben handing me a fresh cup of kool-aid, telling me, “ga’head, speculate on the GOOD stuff.”

Comments »