Today was really interesting as a student of the markets.  Believe me when I tell you, there’s gold in trading the S&P futures at the open.  I just can’t seem to harness it yet.  I have streams of data over all types of markets supporting such a thesis.

I grabbed onto the $ES_F not long after the open.  I got an ace entry just above 1630.  As is par the course, I got my first scale at 1.25 points profit.  I scale at 1.25 because my setup achieves this goal with a 70 percent win rate.  Then I let the other units run.  In theory.  Currently I’m trading a two lot.  I’ll keep trading this tiny position until I get the type of profitability my statistics suggest, and then my goal is to work up to trading 50 lots like the best.

Anyhow, I get the 1.25 and there’s no sign of sellers.  But these positions require my full attention.  More attention than I can give when I get the phone call for an impromptu morning meeting.  WTF?  I booked the other piece a 1.75 points profit and scuttled to a meeting.  Returning to my abode, I watched patiently as the move progressed, and when I got a short entry I took it—then got steamrolled.  That’ll teach me to fade all-time highs.  Had I kept my runner, it would have earned 10 handles without even looking back.  I know—I’m really good at hindsight trading.

While my future’s game is of the little league variety, my stock swinging game is clipping away with major league win rates and profitability BUILT IN.  Mostly everything won today, but ANGI and GS were both solid con #timestamp for the good people of iBC.

I did quite a bit of transacting today, let’s run through it quickly yes?

I added to my GS long early on, and then later sold it when we neared the 155 target my plan called for.

The remaining long in BBRY was closed at break even, after squeezing some profits out of this turnip yesterday.  Blackberry is a big, stupid, Canadian turnip.

I grabbed OptionAddict’s coattails via JOEZ.  It’s not nearly as homo as putting ones hand in another man’s jean pocket.

I scaled a little bit of ANGI off.  Why not take 5 percent before your catalyst?  I still like it into tomorrow’s housing stats.

HAIN was bought into the bell, as it flagged along into the final hour of trade.  My order was followed by a little squeeze which gave the daily chart a lovely look.

All this shuffling took my cash down to 40 percent.  I’m standing atop the mountain on a small piece of rock, being propelled higher by liquid hot magma.  This mountain is in fact, a volcano.

Trade accordingly.

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Today I’m getting those butterflies in my stomach that ZenHunter spoke on over the weekend.  They come from following your method and seeing it work.  I keep a tight schedule now, nothing unbreakable, of course, but guidelines to keep me in the zone while there’s action.

Look at the financials.  They’re not as overextended as the rest of the market.  That’s why I’m back in Goldman.  The inverse head and shoulders is a bonus and it allows us to build context into the play.  It doesn’t matter if the market conforms to the chart setup.  What matters is your ability to use this context to frame the position of other participants and how the live action is treating them.

Like when we say BBQ the shorts—it’s because you know they’re leaning on a major level, like GS $150.00.  Today, they defended the level with decent tenacity.  Their tenacity was overkill, if I may be so bold.  Much like the last fight of an old tiger, they may realize their days are numbered.

These behemoth large cap stocks need a supportive overall market more than the crack rock that worked so well today, so be cognizant that playing GS means possibly having to ride that out.  But once you’re prepared for that, you can play the inverse head and shoulder pattern accordingly.

I cut that HDGE position this morning. It felt good to dig that 12 percent losing thorn out of my side.

Other tickers of interest are current longs: ANGI, BBRY, FB, AAPL, RGR, and CREE

Other tickers of interest I’m stalking: INVN, ELNK, F, LYTS, and RH

I own SAM and AWK too, but they’re not of interest if you catch my drift.

Cash was a little above 50 percent into the bell.  MORE I WANT MOAR.

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Angie’s List has gone dead fish intraday, but I like this tight consolidation going into Wednesday’s housing stats:

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It’s been a solid morning so far for stocks as we continue to chug along on the value train mountain ride.  The question is are we about to begin a descent ala Thunder Mountain or will the engines continue to power higher using banks and Apple as fuel?

The morning offered me one setup that earned a single ES point.  I’ll take it to start the week.  The primary feature of the morning was a solid five handle rotation higher that buoyed many stocks along with it.  It filled the gap and now we’re watching the market consolidate so far above value.

It will be interesting to see if the market can hold onto this strength through the lunch hours.

I took some profits in YELP and BBRY this morning but still hold 2/3 positions in each.

I started a new long in ANGI, again.  Third time is perhaps the charm?

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I have positioned myself in these markets exactly how I didn’t want to—long this HDGE cheese and bologna sandwich with a side of stocks and cash.  What a shame it is.

This is how the week has played out for the Raul:

I’m trading this ES_F in the mornings.  I enjoy the process and planning.  My win rate is 70 percent meaning I’m right WAY more than wrong.  This is a critical component to consistent profitability.  However, I’ve deviated from my plan a few times this week and it has resulted in me losing money.  I’ve lost over 600 dollars, a gift to the market gods.  I kid you not, EVERY time I deviate from my plan I lose money.  Every time.  Next week, my goal is simply to not deviate from the plan.  If I stick to my plan 100 percent next week, I’m going downtown and getting a steak the size of a toilet seat.  Until then, no red meat.  I’ve been too aggressive.

I’m red on stocks too.  Unreal right?  Stock market went up five days straight!  My CREE is up 6 percent.  I’m still red.  I had a losing trade in ANGI.  Other notable weakness in my book includes FB and SAM.  BBRY is new and still looks decent, same with new long YELP bought this afternoon.

I have this damn HDGE.  It hasn’t bothered me all week, until today.  I bought this position as insurance for my book.  Much like real life, the insurance just costs me money and I receive zero benefit beyond homo peace of mind.  I’ve accepted that.  I even expected that.  But my patience wears thin.  My cost basis is $18.30 and it’s unlikely we see that level any time soon.  HOWEVER, it’s so very oversold here.  “Markets—rational—irrational—solvency”  bla bla bla.  I know…I’m not adding to this name, I’m simply managing my way out of it.  I’ll close on the next bounce.

As bad as this all sounds, my book is hardly down.  As a matter of fact, I’m 12 percent YTD.  Last year about this time I had already given back all my double digit gains on the year.  Perhaps memories of that savage dick punch are what have me positioned oh so homo.

All-in-all I still consider this week a success.  Sometimes you just have to pay the troll toll to get out of a market hole.  I’ll be burning thickets of sage to cleanse my home of demons and digging into The PPT for clarity.  Best part: we get to come back Monday and do it all again.

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Perhaps it’s the crystal crack meth I’m holding in my portfolio, and the fact that each of them is a loser, but what looks like minor damage on the S&P has my portfolio down 1.5 percent today.  If I was heavy long, sure, that makes sense, but with cash over 50 percent it comes as a bit of a surprise.  It’s like oh hello April, I see you’re coming in like a lion.

So I’ve been forced to take two losses today; first I cut Yelp, and this afternoon Ford.  Here’s the gist, at this juncture, I’m not loosening risk and letting setups work.  Ford very well could turn around this week, but the daily chart is sloppy, and not something I’m lending patience to right now.

Yelp plum fell on its face, as did most of the social media space. To hold even a trace would be a disgrace. I want only the ace. I want the ace.

My holdings now are (by size) CMG, ANGI, AIG, ZNGA, CREE, and old pokey aka AWK.

We could talk about each and what they’re doing, but you have charts yes?  You see much of what I do, no?

Here’s my bottom line: there’s lots of POMO on tap this month.  It’s a strange environment.  As we wind down into the close, we’re getting a b-shaped profile, suggesting long liquation and not much more.  The sellers made progress on many individual charts, but they haven’t taken the big board yet.  Moreover they haven’t controlled the big board all year.  However, this is a new quarter, a page turn if you will.  Therefore we all need to stay vigilant.  Like, why the hell is the Yen so strong today?  Just be cognizant of the environment.  I’m a bit unsure, hence my huge cash.

Be well.

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Take this setup with a grain of salt, and keep your risk tight in consideration of how extended the indices are.  However, Facebook is seeing some relief today, and there may be some revision to the mean in store for the name.  If yes, that could bode well for the socials in general.

Full Disclosure: I’m already long. 

 

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While Le Doctour has taken the market’s indecision as a cue to back off from his positioning, I have been aggressively churning my portfolio like a tap dancer in a minefield.  Stocks are blowing up, and blowing down.  Stock pickers are totally en vogue as money sloshes around in the market.

Today I sold my remaining shares of LEDS around 1.35 and a brief look back suggests I sold too early.  That’s the problem with knowing a company is complete shit, you’re trigger happy on the gains.  However, a 25 percent gain in two days is sufficient to keep bread on my table.

I bought ANGI back and it started ripping so I bought more.  It’s a full position now, threatening to make all-time highs alongside our historic market.

I closed out RGLD in a passive manner.  I placed a protective stop on the name ensuring I would earn 5 percent.  It triggered and I went on my merry way.  Plus the gold chart looks peak’ish.

Into the bell, @ragincajun dropped some breadcrumbs in the back ally, via the hybrid movers, and I curb-stomped two other bums to get my hands on the best pick, AIG.  I’m long AIG now.

Finally it took every bit of discipline I have to not sell ZNGA.  It’s been flirting with my stop all day.  It’s been trading like a loser all week, but it hasn’t crossed my risk parameter yet.  It’s simple ruffling my feathers in a most egregious manner.  Let’s hope she doesn’t gap down on me.  Come’own everyone, do some hoping for Raul.

Cheers,

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I’ve been busy this morning with the market.  I began running my first algorithm live this morning.  It seeks to define high probability entries for scaling the E-mini S&P contract.  So far so good, it has triggered shorts only all morning.  I’m turning it off now to dig into the data a build macros to chomp away at it.

I got a bit larger than I should have with LEDS into the bell Friday.  The stock stalled out while I was trying to day trade it and I sailed into the weekend with a 10% position.  Good lord.  I spent the majority of the morning liquidating the position down to around a 3% position.  I was able to earn an average sale price of $1.23.  Suffice to say, target one achieved, and I have a runner on should the stock gods offer me some crème.

Then the market continued to deteriorate so I bought more ZNGA.  Try to figure out that logic.  It needs to firm up before the bell for me to have optimism in the name.

Finally, I sold out of YCS, AWAY, and DNKN.  Loser, winner, loser.

Now I’m building a sizeable long in patience as they say.  This is such a corny saying, but I see traders take pride in being patient while others are risking coin, so I’ll consider myself amongst good people.

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