Around 3:20pm, I sold three longs around S&P 1512-1513.

It was a slow reaction to a predetermined level.  Recall the recent past, my frustration with getting chopped.  I think I brought this frustration into the trading session today.  Even though I set the groundwork premarket, using my clear morning mind, I waited to pare down longs until several handles below 1515.75.  In hindsight, I see the active seller easily dictating price the entire session.  I have excuses, like getting pulled into a meeting.  My VPN went down also, forcing me trade VFR.  And as frustrating as that was, the connection has been spotty since last week.  It should have been corrected over the weekend.

I had a minor victory however.  I had buy orders lined up for RGLD.  Whether or not that trade pops tomorrow morning doesn’t matter.  It was a late play after a series of deviations from the plan.  If you’ve been following along, I also missed my scale in CCJ.  That means I have to eat KRO chicken instead of WFM.

I suppose that’s my observations of my performance.

It was a delicious and powerful countertrend move.  Come on, something had to be done.  The 2013 rip has been massive!  I can’t imagine being Scott Bleier during this, blowing gaskets.  However, it is only a countertrend liquidation so far.  It could be the start of something bigger.  However, diligent and methodical observation will tell us when that’s the case.

I plan to correct going off track much like American Hero Lance Armstrong who was and always will be a legendary athlete and cancer ass kicker:

http://youtu.be/RtZhG2kWVLY

Comments »

I love the timestamp on my “Busy Buying” post this morning.  It’s right when the sellers really started filing into the market.  I made two new buys today and one was for a short squeeze only.  Obviously, not many shorts were getting squeezed today, thus I closed my ACCO.  The play could still go higher.  However, my premarket work pointed me to a level where I wanted to see buyers.  When buyers went no call no show at 1515.75, I began reducing long exposure in a big way.

Into the close, I raised my cash levels up to 40% by selling ACCO, DNKN, and RH.

I was receiving scrotum punches as soon as the market opened in TPX.  It’s a no news, more sellers than buyers kind of day in TPX.  We haven’t seen that type of price behavior in the name in a long time.  Has something changed?  It certainly may have.  However, I’ve retained the position.  I know how much I’m willing to risk on this name. 

The punch to the face today was missing my scale point in CCJ.  Here I was, targeting my scale.  Price was compliant, but I was pulled into a meeting.  Then I tried to get cute and grab a peak to scale my piece.  Then I put my order book down and just watched it melt for the rest of the day.  Scaling works for me.  When I miss a scale, I’m not adhering to my plan.  Those are the mistakes I cannot be making.  Losing 2% today, that’s life.  Missing my scale, that’s a death sentence.  It’s as if my ceremonies last night fell on deaf ears.

I could have booked a few gains and reduced exposure further, but given the individual chart pictures, it seemed a bit over reactive.  Then again I thought selling MOS last week was over reactive.  You can’t always be right in this market.  I swear no allegiance to the names I hold, but if a stock like ANGI barely budges while burlap sacked men sell silver, wood, copper, cement, and oil at alarming rates, that is DEMAND.

 I know what must be done, rotisserie chicken from KRO and homework.  This is where it gets fun.  IN THE FACE!

Comments »

I’m very busy on this seemingly benign market day buying quality chart setups and working my existing longs.  There are a few notable pockets of strength in the market today.  The office supply (such an exciting business, think The Office) industry is hot with merger and deal talks.  I think the news is enough to shake up the shorts in ACCO so I started a position in the name.

I’ve ratcheted up my Japan exposure today by initiating a new position in PC.  My buys of MTU yesterday and PC today have increased my Japan exposure to around 8%.  I like the chart setups and the overarching macro theme.

I have several other charts lighting up my stalker screens, but I’m not getting overzealous here.  Instead I’m just buying underlying strength.

Finally, I like how ZNGA continues to behave.  You always have it in your mind that a 10% down day is “normal” in this name, yet it’s been consolidating its recent progress well.  I may add to this position this week.  Like Fly said, if AAPL makes the turn here, it trumps the action in other NASDAQ components.  It could buoy plays like ZNGA.

http://youtu.be/wpNk860pTO4

Comments »

You may scoff at the idea of owning a pirate ship, but as sure as I’m sitting here in the wheelhouse, I can tell you there’s not a more honest job in the world.  This is free enterprise.  If you want fake pirating, follow the hackers on twitter.

My portfolio is a bunch of poached plays from minds more focused than my own, but is nonetheless very long, 75% to be exact. 

Names I’m in, without much research other than loyalty to the halls of iBankCoin:

CCJ and AWK | Mr. Cain Thaler

ZNGA | RaginCajun (we’ve won many more, but this one remains open)

RH, FB, and DNKN | chessNwine

FSLR and TPX | elizamae has shined a light on the volume voids here

ANGI, C, VHC, RH, MTU, FB and many more | “The Fly”

There are a few other names I’ve peppered in.  And of course I’ve applied my risk management to these plays.  And occasionally, I spend sleepless nights digging through Edgar and The PPT.  But it is true.  All you needed to do so far this year was show up and buy stocks.  Don’t let anyone fool you into thinking there was more to it.

I’ve been doing this for years.  READING iBANKCOIN has me raising the watermark AGAIN this week, no doping required.  My sails are open and the tailwinds are strong. And to the brilliant minds of iBankCoin, a solemn tip of the hat. May the sun always shine on your face, and the wind be at your back.

Comments »

My portfolio is transforming into a tree hugger’s paradise.  Consequently, I am turning into a tree hugger.  As such, I will turn a blind eye to the black smoke rising from the CREE plant in China and only declare them to be beacons of hope in the corporate quest to save our planet.  I also hate coal especially much now.  Coal makes peoples lungs hurts and trees are like the earth’s lungs.  Therefore coal hurts the earth’s lungs.

Coal also hurt my book three times this year.  Those ne’er do wells at ANR, dastardly folk, refusing to adhere to their seasonality in a timely manner took a decent bite out of my portfolio.  Thus they are evil and hate Al Gore.  How could someone hate the inventor of the internet?

Some of my eco-friendly holdings, because I’m an eco-friendly kind of guy:

CREE, OESX, FSLR, CCJ, and FB

“Facebook!?” you may ask, yes.  They’re led by Mark, the patron saint of eco-consciousness.  He’s decided it would be best to build hundreds of thousands of server racks in Iceland, creating a landscape much like The Matrix, because he can use the cool outdoor air to chill his computer brain.  Never mind you the heat exhaust, we need to take our eco-minded approach only to the extent in which it benefits the businesses we trade.  May many others follow suit and carpet the polar lands with servers.

There are other names to consider.  All kinds of solar names are ripping diapers off the shorts today, exposing their soiled, naked bums.  Other heroes, like Elon Musk and his noble electric TSLA rides should be added to your book.  Vile shorts, when will you learn to love the planet?

I’m off for now to gather roadside trash to burn in my new incinerator furnace.  Raul3’s going green.

Comments »

I’m using my time wisely today, taking advantage of this non-market-but-still-work-to-become-better day to dig into the LED players I mentioned last night.  It is one thing to trade these stocks, but it’s another entirely to invest.  I went through the most recent earnings announcements and news stories from the stocks listed in my last post.  What an uninspiring heap of dung these companies are.

Besides CREE, the other names I mentioned seem marred with mismanagement and poor decision making.  $1.3M this quarter in R&D bro, really?  Who got a new Hummer out of that deal?  I’ve seen these types of operations before.  It’s like adding a biotech cock measuring contest to your business model.  No thank you.

If I have to hold my nose and buy one of these ancillary plays it will be either OESX or GTAT.  GTAT has earnings at the end of this month so I’ll be on the sideline with them for now.  Good chart pattern nonetheless.  OESX has new management in place and is curtailing their R&D foolishness.  Considering their leverage and precarious cash flow situation, if they can go ANDRE THE GIANT this quarter and “get it while it’s here boy” their stock could triple.

On the topic of ALB, they are very virgin to the LED game.  They are a huge chemical company and are kind of awesome.  They’re making the high purity metal organic products needed in LED general lighting application.  This could work out really well for them.  Whether or not it drives top-line growth over-and-above the rest of their business seems less likely but certainly possible.  It’s not as pure of a play on LED lighting.

Finally, I want to add PHG to the LED pool.  Philips is a huge patent holder.  They really bother me though.   A big part of what they’re doing is litigious hostility.  They are going to be on everyone’s ass making sure no patent infringements occur.  Obviously they’re doing this because they sell light bulbs, all kinds, to us and there is a huge margin built in.  It feels like they’re protecting their legacy margins by throwing a wet blanket on LED up and comers.  However, they are a big, “safe” play on LED expansion. I would only pay $24.00 for the stock if I was considering an investment.

Comments »

I came about this trade in an around about way.  Here’s the story.

I charted and ranked the seven #Japan stocks I’m watching over on chartpin.  Although going over the setups and getting an idea for how they trade, I’m not exactly dropping everything to build 20% of my cash into a basket of three or four ADRs.  However, a few of the charts are offering decent entries and they’re on my radar going into Tuesday’s trade.

But there’s a bigger play that continues to swirl in my mind.  I bumped into a small Italian man at the grocery because I was staring up and doing Rainman math.

I swam like the wind today.  You may wonder how exactly it is the wind swims.  As I sit here, gingery sipping a hot cup of Red Rose, the working man’s tea, I can tell you unequivocally, the wind swims well.  Swimming and pondering the world I could only think about lighting grade LEDs.  All kinds.

Obviously CREE is the best pure play as they drive the R&D train into the future.  They rock.  I took shares long the day after earnings to wet my beak and it’s run 18% since then.  I would like a dip to add.  In the meantime, these ancillary plays are offering ace entries:

ALB isn’t a pure play, but has a horse in the LED race.

LYTS is in a position to crush competitors and drive market adoption of LED retrofits.  They have several décor and signage offerings, but they tend to build out the design updates with LED lighting systems too.  They have proven the cost recapture and savings a business can receive from switching over. Winner.

OESX does high bay high power lighting and other commercial retrofit work.  They offer financing too, LEVERAGE.  RVLT is a similar idea.  Winner.

GTAT makes sapphire and sapphire making components.  The chart shows a possible inverse head and shoulder bottoming pattern.

LEDS is out there, trading in the penny range, but this company is pretty haggard.  Their website has spelling errors on it and could be a joomla template.  Their CEO even won the ASSHATE OF THE WEEK award.  Avoid and let die.

If you own a company and intend on staying in the graces of Premier Obama, an LED retrofit project is sure to keep you safe from drone attacks on your bullshit BMW 3 Series.

Go henceforth to the charts and get in on the LED action.

Comments »

We’re coming under a decent bit of selling pressure as we enter the lunch hour.  Most of my longs are red, but with cash at 33% (oh yeah) and most charts holding up well, I haven’t made any sales this morning.  Should we lose 1514 as I mentioned earlier, and sustain trade below that level, I may take profits and raise a bit more cash.

Not all is weak today.  I’ve been very interested in the Japan trade this year partially by Fly’s highlighting the space, and partially by a few good friends in the country who like the new leadership and their prospects going forward.  Thus I’ve been stalking EWJ, HMC, TM, NMR, MTU, PC, and CAJ.  The Nikkei dipped over 1% last night and these names have dipped as well.  A few of them are offering enticing entries today.  Depending on the afternoon session, I may begin allocating capital into a few of these names.  With the US markets running hot, I may allocate up to 20% of my capital into these names.  These ADRs do most of their movement overnight, so swing trade is really the only way to trade them.

Let’s see where this selling takes us.  I’m laying off the throttle a bit.  I went hunting for stock picks last night and this morning, but nothing is matching the picture I want.  Chinese burrito HTHT looks decent.

I cut GNRC yesterday at the close (aka low of day) and when I saw the Goldman downgrade early this morning I thought I made the right move.  Shares are up almost 5% and I think this stock is still a winner.

Comments »

Today the weather in Detroit is a special kind of bleak where it rains all day but it’s too cold to melt the snow.  It is the magic of pure Michigan in February.  I’ve seen February days more dreary then the line outside the 36^th District.  Today ranks top three dumpy days.

So what can one do to lift the spirits and remember the sun?  Exactly, bank coin in solar stocks!  The sector is on a tear today.  There’s a whole political theme behind these names, but you’re better off pulling up the price charts for these names and sticking with the biggest winner.

I’m currently long FSLR, and after getting rolled on yesterday, it appears the damage never happened.  It was fake.  Coin can continue to be banked in these names.  Don’t chase anything, as the names are volatile, but keep them on your radar this quarter as the sector is running.  Considering February is traditionally a weak month for the industry, this action suggests an unseasonably strong appetite for solar stocks.

Other names I like: TSL, SOL, JKS, and GTAT (which gets a little LED play too.  Unless LED makers abandon sapphire, which they might)

UPDATE: I stole this FSLR chart from Elizamae’s archives, note the dick guillotine:

Comments »

Indeed a Happy Valentine at the house of Raul3.  The big move in ANGI has taken my portfolio to it’s highest levels ever.  There’s good action in the socials today, as Facebook looks to be clawing back lost ground.

I took a scale on my ANGI position.  It was only a ½ position going into earnings, and it became over ¾ in size when it rapidly appreciated.  I still hold around a ¼ position in the name.  And like CREE, I’m patiently waiting for a dip to size back in.

While I wait, I have a couple snacks I want to enjoy.  The sellers are backing off the tape today, but I’m waiting to see what the afternoon brings before I put my hard fought gains back to work.

The Debbie downer over here (there’s always one) is GNRC.  They reported decent earnings, but are taking a hit.  I now have a choice, cut the loss on what was a small position to begin with, or size up and get to know the name better.  I’m reserving this decision for the afternoon also. 

Look, 1514 has been a magical line in the market.  If it gets lost while I’m out eating tacos for lunch, things could get slippery.  Obviously the bulls have the trending edge here.  If I’m to press it, I want to see the heavy lifting continue.  Otherwise, this could be a nasty bull trap.

“I want to be rich and I want lots of money, I don’t care about clever, I don’t care about funny.” Lily Allen

Comments »