I came into the day completely unprepared for all the volume to roll into December contracts. As a result, I spent the morning getting all of my charts built. By the time I completed this task the only opportunities of the day had come and gone. After watching the tape for a bit, I ordered an oversized lunch and stared out the window while eating it.
There just isn’t much for me to do today.
RBCN caught an upgrade but some the bounce if being faded off. I get the sense this stock is setting up to offer long speculators another correction, but I’m struggling to justify selling my shares for any other reason. I will stick around for the flop Monday.
I can’t justify selling SKF either. Aside from the Goldman Dow inauguration, financials have sucked wind all week while tech goes on a no holds cocaine bender. Look at WFC, BRK/B, C, BAC, and the butt grabbers at AIG. They all performed rather lame.
It helps me carry high beta through the weekend, too.
I will stick with EXK into the weekend. It could either carve another 6-7% off me or rip tits higher. I like that type of binary situation.
Thu Sep 12, 2013 4:26pm ESTComments Off on Speaking of Reality Checks
My apologies for being a bit light on the pen today and yesterday, I have simply not had the time to properly address you, kind people of the interwebs.
You may be familiar with the Sold Too Soon club and its proud members, but I’ve become a certified member of the Bought Too Soon club.
Dips, I’ve been buying them too soon. The problem with buying too soon, good people, is YOU HAVE TO TAKE HEAT, lots and lots of heat.
Then, you pay quite a bit of money to see your trade through. Such is the case with my new stud picks SKF, RBCN, and EXK.
These are all trades to me, nothing more. I literally have a few cents more patience in all three. You know what that means right? I risk getting a larger loss via an overnight gap. It’s hard for me to overly concern myself with such things though. It seems silly to live a life of worry at such a tender age. I still like these trades.
LED is working this week and I want a fund of LED firms. So far, I have it owning CREE, AIXG, and RVLT. I want more of all of them and a side of LYTS and OESX.
Stocks were mixed today, but overall down. The same goes with my swing portfolio.
But your boy RAUL did work today, regaining all of the Bossram losses from last week. As you may have noticed, the /ES has been a snoozer. Seeing in advance the need to recoup my losses and suspecting the /ES may offer insufficient opportunities to do so, I pegged out the i7s all weekend to build a high probability trading picture in the /6e aka the Euro dollar. I used to trade this instrument three years ago and I remember why—it’s a wiry SOB. Chalk it up as beginners luck if you’d like, but I pulled another 0.0040 out of the /6e today, putting me back on track to increase my position size by the end of October.
This very much pleases me. I’m not taking excessive risk either. The gains have come faster because the /6e is on the move and setting up more often.
In summary, the /ES rolled over a bit today after taking out a trend line I drew on my chart. That’s some advanced analysis. Value migrated higher, we printed a neutral day which tends to show up near inflection points and tomorrow is Friday the 13th. Hide your wife.
Last week I was trying my best to call out my futures trades in the 12631 chat room because I often get the value added benefit of hearing other members’ take on the position. However, it became increasingly stressful to provide timely updates on my positions and manage the trades. I thought I traded last week in 100 percent accordance with my plan. As a matter of fact, I did not. Upon reviewing the tapes of my trading, I found a costly mistake was made during the fast markets on Friday. It was my largest losing trade of the week. It was managed properly, once entered, but it was not in proper cycle sequence.
I decided at that point to keep my futures trades to myself. I do this for two reasons. First to benefit me by giving myself a more clear mind when trading. Second, I want to build my confidence in the trading cycle before I present it to the good people of iBankCoin. My colleagues all provided the finest value added commentary, and I want to provide the same.
Today was a quiet session after gapping higher in the indices, but I was able to extract 3 handles of profit from the /ES using Bossram. I extracted another 0.0012 in the /6e, so overall I had a pretty solid day in the futures.
Onto stocks, I built a pretty solid day in my swing portfolio. CLF showed solid follow through today, but I took a scale, reducing my long to ½ size.
I finally closed out END, toward the end of the day, when the momentum ended. This was a huge position of mine, one I wanted to parade down the warm streets of victory lane. Instead I chewed off the bits of meat left on the bones and tossed the carcass into an alley. I made five percent, at one point nearly nine percent, and expected to make twenty. But with international sweetheart Vladimir Putin putting a damper on the war, my thesis is eroding. I took money while it was still there for the taking. I like MHR better anyhow.
I was watching the live bloggers at CNET cover the AAPL WWDC and when they mentioned Apple would be using sapphire in their latest iPhone’s fingerprint sensor. I queued up GTAT and RBCN. I like both very much as part of my hedonistic desire to own all things LED, so the AAPL news was more an excuse then a pure catalyst to put sapphire back in my book. I took down shares of RBCN mainly because I like the chart better. GTAT is coming into longer term resistance here at seven as I mentioned yesterday. RBCN has a nice pocket of volume above and a simple-to-define risk.
My final move on the day was pure stock market vagrancy: I bought a stupid amount of MJNA shares. The ticker came to mind during a discussion with The Rhino. He was discussing Funyuns which reminded me of Half Baked and before I knew it I went down to the corner and bought MJNA. The chart looks interesting to say the least. To say the most I see really heavy volume coming in. Perhaps Doctor Phil is about to discuss the benefits of cannibals for bored housewives or something…
I’m down a smidge today, I kept my SKF on, and I’m still about 25 percent cashish.
I was not actively trading the /ES today, but my algo was able to take two trades. One earned 1.75 handles and the other was breakeven.
My portfolio had a very strong day today, up nearly three percent and putting me back near my high watermark of the year. I’ve been trading my butt off to finance these investments in RVLT and CREE. As a result, when RVLT and CREE go up, I have big days.
Let’s discuss RVLT a bit. If we consider the sentiment chart idea, we find ourselves within the panic bounce. To me this means any rally we see over the next few days/weeks is likely to fail. How do you like that? I’m telling you right now that my largest position is involved in a failed rally. And that’s okay because my timeframe on this position is multi-year. Let’s hope I’m correct so we can have better opportunities to buy even more shares. Another anecdotal piece of evidence calling this rally into question is one of its origins: a {cringe} Seeking Alpha report. The bozos at SA (as the hipsters call them) were greased to help somebody get out of a seriously underwater position. This is just a theory, but their track record is eroding though the diligent work of iBankCoin Chief Market Strategist “The Fly”. It puts a foul stink on the whole move. If it wasn’t a pleasant twenty percent pressure release valve I would be even more ornery.
However, CREE reported they have retrofitted the NASA headquarters and done so quite successfully. Hmm, Cree really knows how to land the big fish, yes? Wrong! The biggest fish tend to be the wisest fish—having survived years of fishing and boat propellers. If/when these gigantic fish encounter a situation where their lighting is called into question, the data will unequivocally point them in the direction of LEDs. Any entity that weighs the financial impact of any business decision will see the cost benefit of retrofitting their existing light structure with LEDs. And CREE, RVLT, OESX, AIXG, RBCN, and GTAT will benefit. Look at GTAT…shorts better pray to their demon lords that sadistic seven holds as resistance. Otherwise the light, the good, shall prevail.
Other big winners today were TRLA, CLF, and END. Readers, I’ve been clear with my calls. It’s up to you to wrap risk around them. I scaled a small piece of TRLA off because I take profit when the markets giveth.
My SKF has gone red by about three percent. Tomorrow it comes to an interesting fork in the road where I’ll either buy more, do nothing, or scratch the trade. I was hesitant to add to the position today when the SPY absolutely refused to roll over. Checking back in just now, it appears it did manage to roll, BARELY. Until I see more confirmation, I’m not loving this trade.
END needs to rip, I mean, come’on now, we’ve been flirting with the idea of going all the way for weeks. Why not get past this game of just the tip as @chessNwine often references? I think we do, hence why I haven’t scaled any off yet.
CLF is tricky. It has been dead money for so long and now it shows signs of life. Do we trust it? Or do we take our six percent and dump this cheap trick? TBD
In closing, I kicked my cash up to 25 percent and could like to see some market weakness to buy my favorite stocks sitting on my wish list—names like Z, SFM, GOGO, AMBA, ADHD, and VPCO.
Mon Sep 9, 2013 12:13pm ESTComments Off on $CREE Retrofits NASA Headquarters
You will see more of these projects over the next twelve months as smart businesses evaluate their energy consumption and the investments that can reduce their expenses:
DURHAM, N.C.–(BUSINESS WIRE)–
The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) headquarters, a leased facility in Washington, D.C., has been outfitted with energy-saving CR Series LED Troffers by Cree, Inc. (CREE). The high-performance LED installation is part of a renovation to maximize energy savings of the 600,000 square-foot building. More than 1,300 Cree CR22™ architectural LED troffers have been installed, and Piedmont Office Realty Trust, owners of the NASA headquarters building, expects the new fixtures to deliver energy savings of 52 percent over the previously installed T8 fluorescent fixtures. An additional 5,200 Cree®CR22 troffers are planned to complete the lighting upgrade.
“We originally considered replacing the existing T8 fluorescent tubes with T5 fluorescents, but after testing Cree’s…(continue reading)
Shares of CREE are up over three percent on the news while smaller player RVLT is up over twenty percent. FD: I am long both names.
Retrofits is the name of the game. Can RVLT harvest all the low hanging fruit accross the United States? Indeud, they can and will.
Into the weekend I would like to very briefly run down my portfolio holdings and the reasoning behind each. This information is coming off the rip after a long week. Thus any thing with a flimsy justification may need to go.
Here we go, from largest to smallest holding:
Cash – I have 20 percent of my book sitting cash. I’m eager to deploy it on the long side
SKF – I’m using a three year volume profile chart to view BRK/B, WFC, GS, C, etc. and I see a great volume pocket below prices. Plus they’ve broken down off their respective highs and are printing tight bear flags. The overall market is on unstable footing and I want some levered short exposure.
RVLT – Yes, it’s my largest long holding and currently the bane of my stock existence. It earned largest ranking when I blew out my YGE and YELP shares this week. They were my prior biggies. The stock is trading worse than a bag of dicks at a hot dog eating contest. There are no buyers and presumably a few large sellers cashing in on the 600% plus move that took place up unto the day I bought the stock. The business model is stronger than ever, the shift in focus from consumer products to large scale retrofits is brilliant, and the investor population is still very shortsighted on the opportunity in lighting. I still love this name, and I plan to cost average in through several quarters.
AIXG – My German LED company. I love LED technology and I see this company as a beneficiary in Europe due to their energy awareness. The stock has been dead money for months and I continue to hold. Nothing has changed here, but this consolidation has excellent potential energy.
END – Huge short interest, oil exploration, and a hot chart.
CREE – Same as RVLT and AIXG, I want these names until incandescent and HID bulbs die. I’ve been in since January, why exit now?
TRLA – I love their app and use it constantly, the chart looks great, Zillow has been a beast, value added to realty pros, and Le Fly is in the name.
CLF – Tight consolidation, looks like it wants to rip and if it doesn’t the risk is really low. OA went YOLO on it this week too, although it never moved so that may have been a small loss.
FB – Marky Mark and the poke crew are getting it done. Holding
LO – Blu eCigs and menthol cigarrets won’t actually get banned. Interest rates need to stop rising, it’s making the coupon less attractive.
F – Still a strong chart and a nice product line. This is a patriot long still kicking around my port since the 4th of July
IMMR – haptics are way underutilized by porn. I think the porn industry will drive growth here 😉 Also, a Le Fly favorite.
USO – I should still be large but I took a bunch of scales on the way up. I almost sold it all. Look, that would have been really dumb.
O – it too pays a large coupon which is losing allure with bond rates rising. I traded my favorite reversal pattern really well in here with a large position. The locked in gains dipped my cost basis way down here. So I’m basically break even on the idea, waiting to collect some coupon.
That’s my holdings. I’m interested in a few other names, like SFM and GOGO, but will wait until next week to act (obviously).
Fri Sep 6, 2013 11:24am ESTComments Off on The Overplay for the Underlay
Well how about that morning /ES session? Quite the contrast to yesterday and the paint drying we were subjected to.
I had a great little scalp long at the open. Then I engaged Bossram even though I wanted to see a test of yesterday’s VAH first. I adhered to Bossram. It took a loss on the long side, then it engaged short, and took a loss on the short side.
The bad news is I took 2 losses in a row trading Bossram, the good news is they trades were fully plan compliant, and could have been much worse had I not adhered to the plan.
Typically, it goes on a huge win streak at this point, so the key is to continue to engage. But probabilities are probabilities, every trade is a coin toss.
Elroi scored one short for 1.75 handles and is currently taking heat in another short.
Onto my portfolio:
I sold some scraps out of my book, remaining runners in YELP, BBRY, and YGE. I also bought more SKF. Whether or not that trade works out is very much still debatable.
No reason to be down on these losses or saying adios to my winners, it’s time to dig my heels in.
Thu Sep 5, 2013 4:38pm ESTComments Off on A Complete Rundown of Today
I had a flat tire when I woke.
The markets took a pause for the most part today and although a calm, balanced day should be high on your expectations following a trend day today was borderline absurd. The first hour of trade is referred to as the initial balance. The probability of taking out neither the high nor the low during a day session is less than five percent over the last five years of data.
Today we witnessed a tape so benign it was special. I took a long at 10:30 AM, missed my profitable exit around 3pm, and scratched the trade break even at 3:10pm. You wouldn’t believe the frustration that trade produced. I mean, I look at a stock trade like RVLT, slowly bleeding the lifeblood from my person, like a particularly pestering mosquito. Eventually winter comes and it freezes and dies. But each /ES position carries a marginal value over $30,000…which is why I like my gratification instant. My algo, Elroi was dormant today. I expected as much since Elroi thrives in high velocity conditions. Bossram put me on the right side of the opening bell and I extracted 1.5 handles.
I beat my head against the urinal wall then ate several hummus treats.
I had quite the laugh when I saw my boss for the first time today and, I kid you not, he was wearing a full Canadian tuxedo. It was so majestic. The only wardrobe piece missing was a mystical wolf tee shirt. He also wasn’t rocking the official Canadian belt buckle. Needless to say, it was a clear omen from the stock gods and I sold the majority of my BBRY long. I’ve kept a 1/3 runner in case Wayne Gretzky makes a surprise move onto the board of directors.
The wires are reporting AMBA in fact beat expectations, as was written in these halls for months by our fearless leader, Senor Tropicana. As you know, I exited the position yesterday, but I’m still bullish on the name. The GoPro is as cool as RedBull these days.
I slapped on a pretty sizable SKF position into the bell. It seems in slight haste in hindsight, but I had just untethered myself from the /ES and found the action excessively befuddling. Therefore I thought it prudent first to sell one of my longs. But I looked at all of them, the little rug rats, and I couldn’t part ways with any. So I tossed on the SKF hedge.
I sold a little bit of YGE but I’m keeping a small piece just in case it keeps going.
I took nearly a full size position in CLF early on, it looks hot.
I really like the feel I had trading the /ES_F today. I’ve currently pigeonholed my discretionary trading to conform to the BOSSRAM ALPHA cycle. This prevents me rushing. It allows me to measure where we are in the cycle after some broad redundantly calls my phone so she can hear herself talk and position (or hand sit) accordingly.
You see, plates, I juggle so many.
One of my favorite trades in the market requires full attention because it can fly in your face quickly. I didn’t want to stop trading the chart picture simply because my day job doesn’t afford me focus so I automated it. This was the birth of ELROI.
Elroi doesn’t trade the picture as profitably as me. But what he lacks in profitability Elroi makes up in consistency. Elroi bagged 3.75 handles in profit today on trades that were too racy for me. I on the other hand, wielding Bossram, made $25 or 0.50 handles.
But it was fun to watch Elroi go to work while I waited for the market to come into the Bossram wheelhouse. This week I reset my account to $10k: five for me, five for Elroi, and I pulled the rest out to buy cat food.
You see, trading the /ES since April has been by and large a circle jerk and a dangerous one at that. It came down to losing focus. I’ve…courourrrected the problem and put several policies and procedures in place to ensure the new habits stick. My future’s trading operation is looking more like a Fortune 500 company every week. Goodness, companies like AMZN, GOOG, and SBUX aren’t on these lists by luck.
Learn from their cultures.
Now it’s exciting and I’m happy to fire up my futures every morning. It’s me verses Elroi. So far he’s winning.
ON TO STOCKS:
I sold AMBA entirely today. I told you very clearly I was taking this cheap trick for 10 percent and then taking my business elsewhere. AMBA fucked me once, I fucked AMBA once. Perhaps after earnings we can make love, or something. I earned about 8 percent on the trade. It was a 12 percent position.
I took profits in Ford(s) because I was watching the /ES_F weaken. It’s nothing personal. I still have a 5% position.
My top performers were END and YGE.
RVLT continues to ‘suck goat’ instead of retrofitting Manhattan with LEDs. Get to work you zoophiles.
I bumped my cash up above 25 percent and was up 1.75 percent on the day. I needed it. One thing is certain. When RVLT stops going down…I’m forecasting champagne showers.
