June, Q2, and all of its awesomeness are in the books.  Now we must press into everyone’s favorite quarter, the third, infamous for blowing up accounts.

We had a little scare there for a minute, with bonds going tits up, but so far these fears have been swept under the rug with all the other market villains.  Will the V-shaped bounce stick in PCK?  It seems unlikely.  Volume has tapered off on the bounce up, making the move appear to be of the dead cat varietal.

So I don’t think we’re out of the woods, whistling and skipping across the prairie…blue skies and Teletubbies, yet.  If you are carrying yourself in such manner, have a plan.  Otherwise a surprise cyclone could drop a garbage truck on your person, like the finger of God removing your sperm from the gene pool, benefitting humanity as a whole.

I say all this to you while I stand atop 80 percent long equities, most of which are consumer discretionary.  Why would I carry such funk stocks in this uncertain climate?  It’s simple really, like always.  The wealthy, like always, they’re confident.  They’re always confident, but lately their confidence is at all-time highs, as measured by the Consumer Sentiment Index.  One of the best ways to improve the overall quality of your life is to upgrade your bed.  Don’t sleep on some piker mattress from a garage sale, covered in sweat stains and bed bugs—filth, I spit on your bed.  Most people (not most iBC loyalists) spend close to 40% of their lives in bed, why be ghetto about it?  The answer is they aren’t, they’re buying TPX mattresses by the factory load.  Good lord these babies have a sweet margin, too.

iBC Loyalists:

Also, there’s a big consumer push into adjustable beds.  They promise ergonomics, improved circulation, and an ace reading position.  Traditionally only the elderly and hospitalized enjoyed such decadence. Now they come with 52-inch retractable plasma screens at your feet.  UUUuughghgu!  Guess whose mattresses work best in such conditions?  Yep, TPX.

Now I won’t chop my dick off if TPX isn’t trading to $50 in July, but I have a ton of conviction in the name.  I crushed this trade late last year based on the same conviction.  Are you going to tell me I’m wrong?

I have 11 other longs aka peak position count.  I present them to you, largest-to-smallest, headed into July:

AAPL (lol), TPX, F, FB, ANGI, YGE, IMMR, Z, CREE, GS, AIXG, ENPH

May Julius Caesar and his month bring gifts to my person and yours.

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The degree to which I care about bond holders and their draconian rights is so low, I must defy them.  It’s all bullshit, I’m not buying bonds, are you?   Don’t answer that.  I’ll buy bonds when all you rusty bastards die and I get a real interest rate.  In the meantime, prepare to get Dr. Detroit-ed.

Bear with me, I have a point but I forgot to eat today.  Take your shoes off and let me explain something to you.

Every summer like clockwork something matters.  Alas!  Something matters guys, let’s get on the teevee and talk about it.  Pity many of you subject yourselves to such hubris.  Pundits know as much about these markets as my cat.  Unlike my cat, their reflexes are slow, their climbing abilities poor.

I key off the S&P.  Call me old fashioned, but I’m from the school of thought that the most traded financial instrument in the world leaves a unique footprint in the financial world, one we can derive much from.   I brought 1579.25 – 1580.25 to your attention this morning, good people of iBankCoin, because it displayed significant price behavior and a curious profile footprint.

Then I took to twitter, which is a medium I enjoy, it fits my fringe lifestyle.  And all day I stammered on about this level like a crack head:

“Building acceptance, building acceptance, future, future, way of the future.”

I would unfollow me, I don’t know how anyone stands it.  Nevertheless, the level was our tell on the day.  We’re back inside a very significant value area and the market’s next move from here will be the tell going forward.

Bottom Line because food: we have clear guideposts to the next market move, I’m betting it’s higher, there’s a bullshit scare every summer, and Dan Aykroyd’s humor didn’t make sense to me until like a week ago.

Top picks: F, FB, YGE

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The S&P is trying really hard to form a tradable range here.  Talking ETF SPY, the brackets would be 158.50 – 165.50 give or take.  The mouth pieces are trying their best to help, coming out of their smoky offices and jawboning in the middle of a quad witching.  PPT wants a range low too.  Everything is pointing to a range low—except SHIBOR rates and suspender-wearing bond traders.

In the spirit of our gaptastic, have fun sleeping, stock market, we need some ridiculous headline out of Asia over the weekend that wastes no time, gaps us above the midpoint of our range, catches everyone out of position, and forces your hand to buy at a higher risk.

It would be fitting given the recent nature of this choppy courrrection.

I could see us coming into the office Monday to a huge gap lower too, that’s the environment we’re in.  That’s the environment Chess objectively describes to members on Sunday night when gentlemen take to their studies and make preparations for the week.

So I’m keeping position sizes smaller, cash higher than I would like to, and limiting the number of positions I hold.

I took a SODA long this morning.  It’s looking really good.  It’s only half size.  If it goes lower, I’ll double down.  If it gets to $74 I’ll scale ¼ off and let the market pay me.

I’m a proud bag holder of $423 dollar AAPL shares.  I bought them in the middle of the FED announcement yesterday.  I was completely swept up in the hype.  $420 is an important price level for AAPL because the degenerates who trade it think Phish plays good music.  Maybe they should stick to Chief Keef.

I’ve decided to stick with TPX through this indecision.  I hold a ½ position here also.  I want to make it 2x I love these beds, especially as the adjustable bed market continues to boom.

Holy Mt. ZION is trading well as are many other regional banks.  Holding.

It’s finally summer hallelujah.  We shouldn’t even be holed up on our computers but there are moves to be made.  Get your pasty ass outside and don’t forget the sunscreen.

 

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The longest vertical moves happen most often when the market starts outside of value and trades entirely though it.

When I split Wednesday’s profile, the value area I needed to look at became clear, ranging from 1611 – 1619 give or take a tick.  I was out of my first longs before 1618, but when the market pulled back and set its eyes on challenging 1619 for a second time, I got long again.  It was a lovely trade.  I had 1.5 points of room between my entry and the well defined resistance so I scaled off profit, placed my stop at a level that would take the sellers lots of effort to disqualify the trade, and went about my business of talking smack on twitter and whatnot.

Needless to say, the dynamic move through that resistance didn’t look back and earned five handles before running into my next logical price level.  This is really exciting stuff.

When a trend day occurs, you see very little overlap in the TPOs, and that’s exactly what we saw today.  Getting long anywhere during a trend day is hypothetically risk free exposure heading into the following session since we should at the least digest the upper end of the range.

Using the 6/10 profile you can see the levels where we can expect upside resistance.  Should none of them hold, just set your sights on 1650 and hold’on to your pants.

I’ll be watching the following levels in the morning.  However, I’ll be working remote, so I’m uploading the chart tonight:

NOTE: I’ll be rolling into and quoting the September contract after this weekend.  ALSO NOTE: like a beautiful woman, the sell off and subsequent bounce had near-perfect symmetry, lovely:

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China

The “Chinese Burrito” industry is working its way up The PPT industry rankings since last month.  Check out stocks like RENN, YY, DANG, or VIPS.  They don’t care about the yen or the S&P, they care about The Leader.

Do you smoke?  If not, stay out of China.  Everyone will offer you cigarettes—two at a time.  They smoke in elevators, they smoke in hospitals, they god damned smoke while holding dynamite.  They care about nothing!  Life tends to be short and hard, thus they take getting it while it’s here very seriously.

Their rice, it has plastic in it.

Are you catching my drift?  All they want is the monies and they will do anything to earn it.  Why do they want all the monies?  I’m not entirely sure.

When you go home tonight and you plop onto your pleather couch for a loathing evening of television, I want you to think about your brethren to the east and their prerogative as the rising power to outperform USA at their own game—stocks.  They’re coming for you…

My tops picks in this space are current longs HMIN, YY, and YGE

For the gambler, I’d like to see if MY can go stupid to the upside.  Why not?  They make wind power, laugh out loud, a BHO sweetheart.

All I want for my birthday is a carton of Zhong Nan Hai and a flaming foot rub.

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I’ve come to live by one saying in today’s markets and it’s, “get it while it’s here, boy.”  Because in complete honesty, any spectacular hype surrounding pockets of momentum won’t feel the same next year, week, or even hour.  When a stock is hot, it’s hot.  Higher highs, higher lows, and cocaine dances.  When it’s not, it’s National Bank of Greece.

We are undergoing a slight bounce back after a brutal five percent correction.  Did you blink?  You may have missed it.  As investors peer out of their bunkers, weary from the bombs dropped on their person, they see a strange sight.  It’s Sir Raul, dressed in ceremonial red marching regalia, tap dancing through a mine field.  The sight is so unexpected, so beautiful, they don’t even reach for their gun, they simply watch.

Just as I clear the field and hunker down into a foxhole with many women and Chairman Mao! You come to your senses attempt to clear the field.  You saw the path I took, you see how effortless it was.  You go for it.  Only at that very moment a B-52 bomber blankets the entire field with liquid hot napalm.  You’re dead.  Keep that in mind.

I’m nearly filled to the gullet with high spec, high momentum names.  Names like YGE, FSLR, DDD, YY, LEDS, and more.  I’ll either party all week long with The Chairman, or suffer the very possible drone strike after the NSA hones in on my cell phone whist I order pizza.

It appears the market has gone completely stagnant as I write. Regardless, PRESS THE BOOT!

The only stocks sold were those that will not aggressively appreciate in value.  I cut AAPL and TSLA.

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No, not my gain/loss, but my swing portfolio.  You see, I like these Chinese Burritos right now.  They’ve had strong years, yet they shrugged off this entire week’s weak weakness.  The stocks of my brothers from the Far East are poised to pump with great pomp and vigor.  They sport pristine balance sheets, approved by the general secretaries and chairmen of China.  The board of board of directors will not lose (sic).

I also took down WETF today because, there’s nothing like a millennia-old rivalry to get the energy going.  WETF is my Japan exposure, YY and HMIN represent China.  You know what? Let’s throw LEDS in with China too, no one knows what the hell they actually do, like China.

This is a game of Risk gentleman, position yourself correctly and you may find yourself chairman one day too.

Into the weekend, I’m holding the line, dressed in Red regalia, saluting you and yours.

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I’m feeling very, very angry right now.  Anyone who trades these markets, looking like a stoic, is either a psychopath or a studied philosopher.   I get happy when I follow my plan and make money, and I get raging mad when I deviate from it.

Let’s run down the moves, shall we?

Early on, I engaged the market repeatedly, and donated back my last two days’ gains.  Back to ground zero.  Kewl.  Avoid market rage, don’t engage.

–          I knew once this market made up its mind directionally, it would be big.  The morning built up a ton of energy.  I wasn’t there when the move happened because I was tossing my phone down the stairway.

FSYS, SNE, JKS, NBG – I cut them all, they all lost me money.  NBG never made sense to begin with, even with the 20 percent profit I scaled off.

LULU Lemon calls, purchased at the peak of the great spike of June the fourth, sold, at a loss of course.

Now listen closely: these above positions haven’t even proven themselves wrong yet.  I have proven myself wrong.  And I’m angry.

I’ll be going for a walk now, perhaps talk to some pigeons and see if they have a message from Nicola Tesla.  After such time, I will come back and reassess these markets with a more charged up mind.

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Something is happening to me, something I’ve planned and worked toward all year long.  The budding ideas are beginning to bloom.  I’m becoming a multi-pronged trader.  The tape, it only needs to move, and I’ll be there, making money from it.

I do things, quite majestically.  Take for example my NFLX weekly option trade.  I bought two units early, scaled one off for profit during that precarious double top intraday, and held one through a bit of a drawdown.  This option now stands to make a great deal of money in the morning.  The profit taking gives the confidence to stomach the pullback, at least for me.

My Google runner, I sold it.  It was worth more, and it may rip tomorrow without me, but I avoided turning it into a loss.

This LULU long may still be a loser.  I’ll keep quiet about that seeing as I nearly top ticked it with 3 calls.  You’re never supposed to lose on the internet.

I made money in the S&P futures today.  I can’t post these trades live as they require 100 percent focus and risk management.

My swing portfolio lost money today mostly, but it boasts a large cash position and some green shoots.  Not just pure red.  NBG is my current biggest loser.  New longs include JKS and FSYS.  Cash resides at 33 percent.

New long JKS was practically a mechanical entry.  PPT upgraded it to buy, the hybrid score shot up, and it has a look I know and love.

The green Tuesday streak is over, but I still stand to make a great sum of money tomorrow.  The fade exhibited on my longs only serves as proof that the sellers are in fact afraid and behaving overly aggressive.

Notice: As fast as these buds bloom they can be chopped to bits by a careless lawnmower operator.  It would not be the first time I’ve had fresh ideas minced by the motored blades of the market.  No one ever said it was a safe journey!

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Do you like the transient manner in which I avoided today’s AWK dump off?  After over two years of being invested in the name, benefitting both from the large coupon AND the capital appreciation, I simply cut it loose.  This type of thing happens all the time over here.

Is it luck?

I’ve always considered myself lucky.  I walked away from a pretty gnarly Cessna crash a few years back.

But it’s not luck.  It is marrying the knowledge that matters and hanging out with it every night.  It’s foraging through The PPT, aimlessly, for hours on end.  Reading everyone’s commentary here sure helps.  Pay attention.

Moving on to this landslide close, there’s your sell in MAY!  That was 30 handles from the high of the day.  I got stopped out of my NANO trade amidst the selloff, but my impunity in ES_F continued.  I just had to try the mean revision, and actually made a point and a half going LONG mid death spiral.

I’m telling you, I should buy some lottery tickets for real today, I have the Midas touch.

After seeing the selling pick up tenacity I covered and bought some TZA.  Who am I not to join gentleman RaginCajun on TZA?  On this birthday!?!  I had to.  Plus it’s like my Ambien for the weekend.  Quickly: Raul trusts no pharmaceuticals, hence his distrust for resident drug dealer @halfbloodpope. I’m really not sure why I’m talking in the third person, via my pen name.

Some of my stocks held up well considering the carnage.  New long ACHN didn’t chit the bed, which is sometimes expected of newborns.  DDD was ugly, but damn, I’ve seen worse.  I’ll probably see worse come Monday.

I have the China PMI to look forward to this weekend with HMIN and DANG.  And I have SNE.  I even have a dash of NBG.  I like taking my chips to another country and gambling elsewhere while the USA gets sold in May.

My cash rose to 30 percent.

It seems like June is going to whip about something awesome.  I hope so.  Enjoy your weekend, eat a good meal, make love to your wife, for we battle come Monday.

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