After spending the morning getting myself well positioned in the futures, talking a bit of smack on the twitter network, and other general business tasks I grew hungry.

The pickle of it all was my damn minions aren’t here today, bastards.

So I had to go get some grub myself, oh the humanity.

And while I did, I was sequestered from my kickass electronics and forced to view the market through the lens of an iPhone.  Stupid-archaic-fossil phone!

As luck would have it, I was well positioned in the futures, buying 1687.25 in the ES_F.  I took a scale at a point and a quarter because the sellers appeared as if they would not relent.   Then as I cursed society’s insistence on dawdling through life, a small burst of selling caught me off guard and I covered my long for +0.75.

At that very moment, the move I planned on riding occurred, back the VPOC, without Raul.  All because I had to fetch my own food.

So far I missed my first scale in EXK too, because I held out for a few more pennies.  I’m sure it still gets it, but I wanted to get my first scale quick to fulfill the old instant gratification desire.

ENPH is plagued by a seller in and around $7.50, a jackass really.  TPX, my only position larger than ENPH, has been a cold fish for weeks, freezing my assets in place.  Do you see how much time I’m wasting?

Instead of getting frustrated, I went and talked to strangers about anything and everything besides the markets: the rampant bug infestations occurring, the blood red moon, the biblical rain storms…you know, stuff the common folk discuss.

All this, while I wait for my next setup…

 

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First and foremost, I’m happy to report I’ve managed to stick to my trading plan since last Wednesday and it has resulted in green days (no alt rock).  The market isn’t giving me much to work off of, but it’s offering setups and I’m executing them without much thought.  This is good, as almost all the thinking should occur before a trade, fortified with six months of statistics, and cemented in place with the experience of trading it 100s of times.

Then you just do it live.

I can already smell the full-bodied aroma of a cigar pared with the sharp smell of pool shock and sunscreen.  Heaven

Second, didn’t the morning profile analysis fully embrace the thought of a pullback?  That helps me be a cool daddy-o.

Finally, I hit an all-time high this morning in my swing portfolio, but ended the day red.  My only two actions were cutting PRLB and buying more ENPH.  I want to buy my PRLB back already but there’s a problem: I’m fully invested.

100% long at the swing high of the year, pressing for a break higher.

I’ve uploaded my positions into Finviz and sorted them by their respective earnings date to prevent any ‘surprise sex’ check it out:

http://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=161&t=ENPH,IMMR,OCZ,AIXG,FXY,YGE,FB,O,BPZ,TPX,Z,INVN,CREE,FSLR,DDD,F&o=-earningsdate

It’s a pretty great feature if you’re running lots of positions at once during earnings.

I don’t have much else to say this eve, my positions are listed in that link in the spirit of full disclosure.  And my top pick is ENPH.  Enjoy your evening.

Sincerely,

Raul

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My office was rife with distractions today as the typically quiet folks of finance dipped into a barrel of beer and invaded my workspace all-too-frequently for its VIP view of the streets below.  Damn these fools, seriously, they’re demented humans who don’t get out nearly enough.

Pair that with Multicharts having an impromptu mandatory software update, and I was rendered useless in the futures market after the clock struck ten.

I’m brooding so hard right now.  But what the hell, everyone’s having fun, yes yes yes!?  Ben told the bulls, “we ridin’ round we gettin’ it.  It’s mine, I spend it.”

Ben put his flex on like an old tiger in his last fight—he’s not losing.

The S&P pit session was quiet today, but really fluid and without nasty trap action.  It went directional downward early on, and anyone with a brain would be trigger happy on their shorts, taking profits given the context.  So when a new low was never set, the market never even enticed chasing the shorts.  Then it marked time all session, then put in two nice little rotations higher to close out the day.

I missed the afternoon rotations, hence the brooding.

Perhaps that is why I bought BPZ at HOD today but let me explain a bit more.  They say if you feel like you’re missing out on the action, it’s already too late.  When I pulled up BPZ this afternoon, I didn’t feel a sense that I had missed anything.  I see this type of setup all the time, yet I never take it.  A stock launches over 10 percent higher in a single session on strong volume and closes near the HOD.  The next day it makes an even BIGGER move.  Pair that with the following bullet points:

1.) http://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2013/07/10/a-titanic-shift-in-the-oil-markets-are-underway/

“On the other hand, surging oil prices is good for a number of sectors, such as solar, alternative energy and good old fashioned exploration plays who bank coin off the price of oil going higher.”

2.) It showed up on three of my favorite PPT screens too, including receiving an upgrade to BUY.

I’ll quickly run through today’s portfolio adjustments:

I took my first scale in O.  You have to get paid when the market pays you.  Now the move can either continue progressing or digest for a bit and I’m chill.

I took my first scale on TPX.  It’s still my largest position and top pick.  Next target is $50.

I bought PRLB, INVN, and BPZ like a cheetah chasing a gazelle.

I took cash down to 12 percent, and my positions, listed largest to smallest are as follows (top picks bolded):

TPX, FB, AIXG, INVN, DDD, F, Z, IMMR, CREE, PRLB, SD, BPZ, O, ENPH, YGE

I want some EXK too, call it position overload.  I did this last time we peaked out…FYI but I won’t be fooled twice.

EARNING’S SEASON STARTS TOMMOROW MORNING-PREPARE FOR WAR

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Summer: when the women present their supple midriffs above skirts and now my new favorite, the high rise jean.  Of course, it takes a certain physique to pull this look off.  And as much as you think it’s skinny or curvy, it really all comes down to posture.

Summer: when the stock exchange stabs a cold knife in your back the moment you turn away.  There are distractions abound, like my internet crush, Chiara Ferragni.  Ladies, note the posture, stunning:

Today we printed a messed up looking candle on the SPY.  Big deal, right?  I mean every candle has been haggard.  But I don’t like the positioning of this one, going into earning’s season.  For all intents and purposes, earning’s season starts Friday, premarket.  That’s when we hear from WFC and JPM who will set the tone into Friday’s tape and the weekend.  It would be wise to focus on your risk profile into Friday’s trade.

We should get a sense of the front running during the week, we have our key levels above, any of which if accepted by the market would be a huge contextual point of reference.

Below, we have doji city…one bad day could very easily cut through all this nonsense.

So raise you vigilance this week, rank your positions, know your risk and targets and most important, work on your posture.

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Allow me to preface this performance report with a note about strategies, signals, and systems.  There are a million different ways to approach the markets.  Most approaches can be taken to profitability, and all approaches can make you insolvent. To consider one method better than another relies on the traders own subjectivity and how they view and comprehend an approach.  I prefer simplicity and risk management because it suits my fringe lifestyle.  I need a standardized method of assessing the risk a trade carries.  That way, if I get a strong appetite for an industry, like solar, I can find a vehicle I’m confident driving.

All of this is fine and dandy if you execute according to the plan.  Execution is where a trader is defined, and where money is made.  When your ‘signal’ trips you need to execute it.  Finding a signal and becoming intimately acquainted with it is the only way to consistently profit in the markets. When you take time to think, really think, you won’t be reacting and trying to think in the heat of battle, you can stick to the steady handed plan.

I had a really good thing going with the YGE trade and somewhere down the line I lost my vision and muffed it.  Fortunately, when I returned to my study and in the evening recognized my folly, I made preparations to correct myself.  My YGE trade net-net became profitable on Friday, but pales in comparison to the profits it could have generated had I stuck to the plan.

THE ORIGINAL PLAN – PRESENTED WITHOUT COMMENTARY:

THE EXECUTION – Green arrows represent buy points, red sell points, to date:

That, my friends, is poor execution.  I was swept into the sea of emotion on 06/20…do you remember how fucking nuts 06/20 seemed?  It was fake.

Hell, we never even lost the 33 EMA on a closing basis.  And we were clear above my risk parameter.

So what went wrong?  Poor execution, friend.  My takeaway is to keep position counts lower, allowing me to better assess my prescription risk plans before making decisions.  When 10 positions are all down big, sometimes you just pick the most painful one and slow the bleeding, even if it defies the plan.

Like I said, I corrected course and I’m still riding the name, including taking half my position up Friday’s ramp, so I’m still pretty excited about this trade, all things considered.  Now that I’ve booked some profits, and have a green cushion, I’m sticking to the following plan for the YGE trade, including riding though earnings, if necessary, to achieve my $5.00 target.  Behold:

 

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A shot was fired across the bow of every…you know what, I’m not going to poke the bears as they’re already illiquid. A shot was fired across the bow of every underinvested money manager who continues to underperform the S&P 500. You know who you are, calling yourself a professional, what with the fees and the boats and the cocaine buffets. I hope you’re checking in on a low powered Internet connection, high on “the piff” considering your options. Let me lay a few out:

Buy index futures very quickly on Sunday
Come to work Monday and buy Goldman Sachs
Quit and scrape together money to obtain a cabbie license
Dust off that resume and work you fickle Ivy League networks (read fellatio)
Go home and play with your kids, they won’t judge you

Ah ok I’m done. What a comeback today, the type you can only see orchestrated by the greatest powers in finance, true architects. The truth is, I don’t manage money for others…just the scraps I’ve worked tirelessly to gather, living for years like a hobo. I’ve always hated being wrong. But I temper that hatred, and stop being wrong when biting the proverbial bullet is the only way out. If these charts play out how they’re 75% likely to, you need to stop being wrong and ratchet up your longs, friend.

In doing so, your orders will propel my existing positions higher, appreciating my capital while I drink Bush Light and skip stones in paradise. For you see, I gathered your jetsam for two weeks. The bow of my boat could barely crest the rough waves, but safe harbor is in sight. Soon I’ll own the entire port.

All I did today, aside for living the dream, is buy more GS shares. There’s a saying, “When in doubt, buy Goldman.” I did exactly that. Have a great weekend.

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We thoroughly auctioned 1624 during the Employment Data drop, with algos tearing a rift in the market one nanosecond at a time. One day watch these announcements through the filter of a 2500 contract or 3 tick range bar and get a feel for HFT. It’s like a ballet.

Anyhow, the level was “auctioned” and we had the classic first move fake out, followed by the takeout, followed by the real move, which was decidedly lower…20 handles off the high. Now the ES_F is more or less churning and the afternoon may offer some directional moves, but you’re of better service to your clients or your own money laying off this tape.

I don’t know, eat a hot dog or two.

The only moves I’m considering are selling O, which would need to weaken further, or selling YGE, which would need to strengthen, further.

Otherwise I’m enjoying the view, talking a bit of smack on the twitter hater network, and consuming baked beans straight from the crock pot. Like a good god damn.

I suggest you stow your space helmet, but keep it nearby in case of an impromptu launch, pinning us north of 1624 on the close.

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You’ll hear reports this afternoon about how the market gave up its “POMO Pump” and how we’re going to hell in an Egyptian hand basket.  You’ll also read two or three articles speculating about Friday morning’s Employment Report.  Bears want a good number, odd no?  Did we close off the high of the day?  We did.  Did Fords!?  No.

On the surface, today did nothing.  If you sleep at night, and couldn’t care less about the picture our overnight markets paint, you awoke to a modest gap lower, you bought it, you ate a hoagie, and then you enjoyed capital appreciation, like a good American.

Completely aside, did you see the abortion protestors and their haters getting “Hail Satan” trending on twitter?  For a moment I thought UNXL reversed.  Protestors continually blow my mind…where does one find the time?  Then again I care about nothing.

AIXG started working today, finally.  I want to have a nice, stable, long term relationship with AIXG, none of this run and gun business.

O has several traders on the edge of their seats.  On one hand the stock is way oversold.  On the other hand, the momentum is yet to truly shift.  We’re in the courting stage where everyone’s nice but not being completely real, you know what I mean?  I’m yet to reach my initial profit target at 44.44.

ANGI looks so ready and I look forward to dropping bombs on the paraquat who called me a bag holder citing the .com bubble.  LOL

Z however, continues to be a bumpy ride.  I still like the look.

That’s all my thoughts.  Have a safe holiday everyone.  I love me some fireworks, but I never “hold the mortar tube.”  You shouldn’t either.

U-S-A! U-S-A! U-S-A!

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Because when three months go by and every stock feels like a chase, you’ll pull out your weekly charts and be like, “Well when was that perfect setup and why did I miss it?  Oh, I see, it was the sketchy week leading into the 4^th of July, when I tread lightly.”  And you’ll be like, “Damn, of course that’s when the opportunistic bulls went all capre diem, bastards!”  This scenario will resonate even louder for the cash-heavy vacationers…

…Raul is never on vacation, even when on vacation.

I’ve accepted that travel for the next 3-9 years must be within the confines of an acceptable internet connection.  Perhaps you’re like, “that’s sad, really.”  You shouldn’t.  I’m hungry, and we “all gone eat honey.”  Mine is simply being deferred into my early 30’s.

We’re all staring at the same charts, and it’s hard to look away.  SPY is like your favorite train-wrecked celebrity, blowing cocaine and walking through Hollywood naked.  We’re disgusted, but a part of us wonders if we’ll ever experience such luxuriously-destitute conditions.  You’re sure they’ll die or be arrested, but just then Richard Branson comes to their rescue, flying them off the streets in his spaceship.  That’s the ETF SPY summed up in one paragraph.

It’s a totally new world we live in.  Get out your space helmets friends!

So I’m Don Johnson long into tomorrow’s shortened trading session, fully prepared to hammock myself and drink cucumber water once the market closes.  Then blow shit up, and then have a remote presence Friday, like an alien.

I’m over MAX HOLDING COUNT, currently holding 14 longs, like a box of dynamite.

Cash is only 10 percent and here are my longs, listed by size, largest-to-smallest:

TPX, F, Z, GS, FB, ANGI, SHLD, AAPL, IMMR, O, CREE, AIXG, ENPH, and YGE

I’m certain this list has little value to you because, well, it’s too many names.  I’ll cut the solars on any additional weakness, but I couldn’t stand the thought of cutting them before they actually become fireworks…they’ve done nothing wrong.

O shot out of a clown cannon into the bell.  The move lower looks way overdone, and inside 12631 we talked about how this is one of my favorite setups.

AAPL made it back to my basis, so I cut it in half.  Sitting through that drawdown full sized was muy shitty.

F closed out at 52 week highs, fantastic looking chart.

ANGI is still “meh”

CREE: all year I’ve wished I had more, but all year I’ve been long so….I can’t beat myself up too bad.

GS needs to do some fancy bear-trapping, because right now, they’re asserting themselves rather well.

Enough, I grow tired.  See you homos later.

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Just like that we’re thrown into the month of July, like a Christian catapulted into the Colosseum to feed the lions.  The S&P futures via the E-minis have been all over the place, allowing traders to swing both ways intra-day with relative ease.

The main takeaway from the last 22 hours of S&P moves is we made new swing highs, taking us about half way up the big liquidation snap that started on 06/19.  Even if today marks the high for the week, it’s a damn good one.

The important matter is how the market chooses to digest today’s action as we approach the kickass 4^th of July.  Ideally, volume tapers off and everything becomes rather boring.  I would like boring as I sit 80 percent long, because really I only want to buy gigantic fyreworks (sic) and “blow shit up” to impress my relatives.

Imagine a scenario where we slowly print a higher low in-or-around 1600…wouldn’t that spook the bears?

Moving on to book talk, I sold ½ my YGE long for a 10 percent gain.  My track record in trading the name is still negative, but it was nice to land a win.  I still like the name even though it printed a nasty candle today.  I’m keeping my little ¼ on a tight leash.

I added to my Z and GS longs, in that order.  They’re about the same size now, which is about ¾ size.  I see a similar pattern between the two daily charts which is yet to materialize, which means I’m early, which means the high probability hasn’t set in yet, which means I may lose money.  I continue to jump the gun on my setups.

That’s all I did today, essentially pooling my wins from YGE into Z and GS.

I want to join the iBC crew on SHLD down here as I believe the price presents an opportunity to buy the name at a discount.  However, I’m backing off in hopes of slightly lower prices.  I may not see them.

Finally, remember when I bought RGLD sub $50 and then went on a dog and pony show, decreeing my greatness?  Anyhow I only scaled a small bit off and a nasty gap lower made the trade a net loss, but that’s not what I want to turn your attention to.  Instead, I want to discuss how I was offered sub $40 shares by the stock gods and not only did my spider senses fire off a buy signal, “The Fly” spoon fed us high probability statistics.  And what did I do?  NOT JUMP THE GUN!  I stuck my head in the sand.  It’s been a distraction to watch it rip 10 percent since then.  Now that I’ve penned my frustration, I no longer care.

Have a good one

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