The buck stops here. This is important. First off, that we’re clear on one thing. I own the outcome of any speculation I take. The short-dated bet I took on Twitter via the December 70 calls is likely a zero.The position I’ve built since the IPO via common TWTR shares is still doing okay but my goodness has it been a waste of time?
Maybe. Maybe had those funds been loose I would have spent them on cheap hootch and fast women. I mean a good chunk of that holding period was my twenties, yikes.
Could have indexed the funds. Sure. Been a terrific bore. Could have been bitcoin, the thought of a generation.
I dug back through the archives but couldn’t find the day I quit trading individual stocks. But around like 2016 or so I swore off stock picking and put the blinders on and only traded NASDAQ futures. I do well there. The feedback loop is much quicker. This is a game of cool-headed consistency.
Okay all this said, and believe me what I am about to write next borders on paranoid hyperbole, but bear with me because maybe we don’t know. Maybe these fuckers really are out to get me.
Twitter just reported a pretty heckin’ decent quarter. They grew revenues. They settled an old debt. Average daily active users were up. The call went okay. The analysts mentioned NOTHING about NFTs or crypto during Q&A. If it wasn’t for a question from a Twitter user we wouldn’t have even heard about bitcoin tipping.
No. These analysts, these wall street payroll chaps. Sucking from a withing vine. Employees who were once the seat of power, at places like Goldman Sachs, psychopaths in suits before noon every damn day doing all sorts of low-labor intellectual work, these people from these places are losing their might and they know it.
Protocols are rendering their jobs useless and making them look like dusty old fools along the way. Brave folks are offering the forbidden. 8,700% APY hoe. The rebels who are championing these initiatives are organizing on Twitter. The CEO of this cool kid hangout wears tie died shirt and hang out with Jay-Z.
Analysts on the other hand do nothing great. Spreadsheets and hamburgers. Withing heights.
So we go to bed after a decent earnings call. Stock was indicating like +1.5% which meant nothing to me. Few folks are thanking me for my service. Rallying the boys around this great name. I reply nothing because I know the fat lady not only isn’t done singing, she really hasn’t even begun to sing.
7am rolls around and these analysts kick off a bear shitter campaign. To the neglect of their personal life they shave their pudgy faced and eat little cakes and squeeze into their suits. Then they go into their offices, yes their throne! And start downgrading Twitter. Maybe they called each other. Maybe there was some kind of nod and a wink. Maybe they were like, “Chaps we need to knock these twitter fuckers down a peg. They’re shouting Revolution and building things that render us obsolete. We are very fat and they are making us look fat and foolish.” They take a look at the order book and see all these profiteers thinking they’re cunning. That they’re on to something. That they’ve piled into $70 dollar short-dated calls. And they realize that if TWTR lingers above $60 too much longer these swarthy gamblers might have us on the run. Or worse. They might have our heads.
Downgrade, downgrade, more more more, fuckers. Dowgrade this stock we need to put an end to these wonton speculators.
Then Bill Hwang rumors. Old black beard is putting the forks to Twitter with those draconian tactics he learned in the old country. Is it true? We don’t know.
All this micro risk. Happens fast.
Manipulative? I really couldn’t care less.
My job isn’t to cry foul. My job is to trade well and understand the factors at play. The big open interest at $70 was spotted. I saw it cross one of these option alert systems that I never use. But those doo-hickeys fire irrelevant signals all the time.
Analysts can’t play this kind of inside baseball with entire indices. Maybe they can with individual stocks. That’s why I do my best not to care about the intermediate term price oscillations of a ticker. I have to remember. One Vision. One Dream.
All that stated. My vibe is still off. It has been for weeks. I am still confidently shooting my shot. And I am still making proverbial baskets. I don’t feel shaken. Just a bit off. I don’t like this feeling. Maybe I need to really step out of the fish tank. Something this bohemian hasn’t done in some 20 odd months.
To recap: I remain bullish on Twitter. The analysts are maybe conspiring against TWTR short-term and doing a decent job of it. The proverbial they will likely keep TWTR pinned below 70 into year-end to dash the hopes and dreams of all the revolutionary privateers who had the gall to ask what if.
What if what if what if.
I spent the better part of the last few months hyping Twitter and I’ll own that. It has been wrong so far. My vibe is off and because of that I am taking tomorrow and likely the rest of the week off. Hell. It is hallowed ween anyhow and I have some haunting to do.
If I stand too close to any devices tomorrow I will probably end up buying more Twitter. Holding TWTR stock through year-after-year of mundane earnings is the bane of my existence. Twitter.com is a wonderful stream of alpha and joy and my greatest addiction.
Winter is coming.
Okay for now.
::nails dead crow to front door::
Raul Santos, October 27th 201If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on Twitter