Two weeks ago Reuters penned an article explaining how they changed the structure of the Reuters/Ipsos presidential poll. The modifications were enacted July 29th–just two days after Trump was seen taking a lead over Clinton for the first time, see below:
This was just after the RNC Convention and mid-#DNCLeak, but before Trump’s “second amendment people” faux pas. Pollsters noticed something about the results. They found so many people were voting “Neither/Other” that the results were under reporting of who voters would ultimately choose come election day.
Here is the explanation Reuters gives:
“…in a presidential campaign notable for its negativity, the option of ‘Neither’ candidate appears to be an appealing alternative, at least to participants in the Reuters/Ipsos opinion poll. Many voters on both sides have been ambivalent in their support for Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton and Republican nominee Donald Trump, complicating the task of the pollsters trying to track the race. That sentiment may help explain an apparent skew that recently emerged in the Reuters/Ipsos poll results. Given the choice, a relatively large group of voters opted for “Neither/Other” candidate compared with other major polls, leading to an underreporting of several percentage points for one or other of the two major contenders at times in the race.”
Without ‘Neither’ as a option, the polls skewed back into Hillary’s favor, pushing her to 40% and Trump down to 35%.
Trump supporters consider this a prime example of mainstream media presenting a deceptive narrative where Hillary Clinton maintains “front runner” status.
Whether or not five front page hit pieces against Trump is a crooked attempt by mainstream media to affect the outcome of the election or just journalists trying to sell subscriptions, the odds book I trust shows Trump losing by a landslide. And unless the FiveThirtyEight stats dramatically swing, I expect to we will all be welcoming HRC back into the White House come November:
How’s FiveThirtyEight only have an 11% chance of a Trump win?
Odds of winning isn’t the same as relative margin. If HTC wins by one electoral vote, it’s the same as winning by a shutout. 538 is just making permutations of poll numbers.
It’s based largely on electoral vote and the likely paths to victory. If a candidate is outside of the margin of error and has a lead, you can be ~90% confident that if election were held on the day of the poll that the leader would win that state.
If you run the polls and random number generator to simulate 90% chance of winning a particular state, and repeat for all states as well as including ~60% chance of a win, you can sum all the simulations in which each candidate got electoral majority and determine how many “victories” each candidate got. (even if those victories came with less than 50% of popular vote).
The thing is, while polls project 90% confidence within the margin of error, there is much greater uncertainty and votes that will chance before election time, so I would suggest while Hillary still is likely to win, it’s far closer to 50% with debates coming up, campaign ads yet to really hit, and all the possible “October surprises” that make the model of current polls inconsistent with what we’ll see come election day, and thus, greater uncertainty, which favors closer to 50/50 than a simulation may imply
The battleground states have much less confidence of who will win and the closer the polls are, the closer to 50/50 Being within the margin of errror doesn’t mean 50/50, but it means that it’s less than 90% confidence. If you loolkk at the battleground states and the paths to victory Trump has far fewer ways to win given the current polling… but like I said, all this information is subject to change quite a bit before November 2 months is a very long time in elections when you have two people perceived as terrible candidates and people are just looking for an excuse of why the other side is less terrible.
35% will vote for their party regardless in just about every election so the middle 30% is what this battle is over.
I think Trump’s only real path to have a legitimate shot at winning is through turning the popular vote of the entire nation drastically in his favor, and/or the crowd turning drastically against Hillary… Trying to battle in a battleground state for votes to win this state or that state is going to result in a close loss, regardless of what path is taken imo. (or 89% of paths are losses anyways)… He needs to find a way to completely change the game
Trump is correct, he’s running more against the crooked US-brainwashing propaganda media machine than crooked Hillary. And the majority of the lemmings in this country happily sip the koolaid.
This will not end well.
I love how all of you uber wise people like to call people Kool-Aid drinkers. Ever think that you might be drinking the Kool-Aid too, just a different flavor? Your whole Kool-Aid drinking calling crowd needs to get over themselves.
no
Conservative Milwaukee radio host Charlie Sykes (disclosure: anti-Trump) thinks you are stuck in “alternative media reality”:
https://mobile.twitter.com/oliverdarcy/status/764909726278836225?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Breitbart is on the case, Juice, countering all the media bias and all those pollsters that are in the tank for Clinton and the establishment.
They had their own poll done, by a conservative pollster, and revealed the truth that the NY Times won’t let you see:
Clinton leads Trump by 5 points.
http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/08/14/breitbartgravis-poll-hillary-clinton-leads-donald-trump-42-to-37/
Yawn. What about the other six polls that also show a Clinton lead.
That was the point Raul made. There was a one-time adjustment by one pollster that happened to affect one earlier moment in time when that poll had Trump leading. Reuters results are not showing a pro-Clinton bias relative to the many other polls tracked and aggregated by 538. The polls show her with a strong lead at this point.
Not sure it’s the medias fault Trump can’t open his mouth without turds falling out. You know, the real version of Trump actually had a great chance of winning. Not the version that he uses to appeal to the lower classes of society/ or the people that just hate Hillary. Now we’re finding out that what he assumed was working so well is actually not working that well with normal people. Here’s a great glimpse of normal Trump and new Trump.
https://www.youtube.com/embed/kSE-XoVKaXg
He is still the best candidate. Ultimately, if elected, which is very unlikely, Trump will be hamstrung by his own party. I think you can look at it from a party perspective. Which set of ideas do you think will be better for the country and which side do you want to give more power to. You can take the candidates out of the equation. They are both bat-shit crazy anyway.
One of the things that the Democrats are proud of are in the introduction of federal back student loans for everyone. Here we are 20 years later and the cost of college education has skyrocketed and most young people have a shitload of debt and a shitty education. If you think that this was a good idea and you think the social justice warriors are right and you want to marry a third-wave feminist so she can mentally castrate you and then leave you for a fat girl, then by all means you should vote for Clinton. If your huevos are still intact you’ll come to better conclusions.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aWJT0egzAy0
Hillary, unbelievably, lies even more than trump.
https://youtu.be/OdMWpvvnk2Q
It’s a shame too, we could’ve had a real candidate. Now that would’ve been a real departure from the establishment, and he’d be mopping the floor with Hillary. Instead I have to put on my tinfoil hat and just assume he’s not trying to win the election at all. It’s a shame we’d never find out the truth, because we’d have a lot of people feeling absolutely foolish. Of course they’d just say he was just trying to save face by throwing the election, because they’d be so embarrassed that they’d been duped so bad. America….. Ashton is about to jump out with a camera.
The guy wants to build condos in Moscow more than he wants to be President. It’s obvious he doesn’t want the job.
Rigged elections, rigged media.. sounds like a guy who is ready to lose.
Hey Confession, I know you despise guns. Serious question, there are millions of progressive “PROGS” liberal females who have purchased a record amount of guns in the last eight years. Are they going to vote for krillary or trump ? Quite a dilemma, no ?
i have no problem with handguns, hunting etc.
Not sure about your stats .. millions? Guns are only a single voting issue for wingnuts. I can live with loose guns laws if that means no TRUMP.
Misinterpreted your previous comments. Anyway, I’m ready for total chaos. Bring krillary in and let’s see the ensuing shit storm. It amazes me how the left thinks they will be immune from high taxes, gun control, refuges, zika, isis, etc, etc. etc. Look at everybody leaving California to get away from those freaks.
Hillary no bargain but Trump is crazy and dangerous. Has not shown any indication of understanding the weight of the job. He’s just a wiseass.
Funny thing Trump is right.
China built a wall 2000 years ago and it kept all the mexicans out
good one
+1