NASDAQ futures are coming into the week gap down after an overnight session featuring normal volume on an elevated range. Price held Friday’s low during a series of downward rotations last night before settling into balance. The entire session was spent below last Friday’s range midpoint.
The economic calendar starts quiet this week, but has several major events toward the end. For today we have New Home Sales at 10am, 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am, and a 2-year note auction at 1pm.
Last week the NASDAQ diverged lower while the other indices worked higher. The Russell 2000 in particular showed strength despite the heavy selling in the NASDAQ. Last Friday saw the NASDAQ sharply lower during the morning session before finding a responsive bid ahead of the 04/12 low and closing the week out bouncing back toward the daily midpoint.
Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work lower and take out overnight low 4436. This sets up a test of Friday’s low 4431 which triggers a liquidation all the way down to 4402.75 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 2 buyers press into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 4466.25 before finding responsive sellers and working lower to take out overnight low 4436 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 3 strong buyers close overnight gap up to 4466.25 then continue working higher to take out overnight high 4479.75. Look for buyers to continue probing higher, up to 4492.75 before two way trade ensues.
Levels:
Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:
looks like #1 is playing out
Much more hypo 2. We went up and closed the gap first, but yes. Could evolve into hypo 2 if sellers become initiative here
lol. totally meant to write #2.
If they test 4445 again, I don’t think it will hold this time