Predictions for February 1st to 5th

Now is not the time to be cute.  Your gut might be telling you the chase is on.  When the market rallies hard your juices start flowing.  These independent oil stocks are up double digits by the hand full.  Facebook is the Berkshire Hathaway of the social media game.

Sentiment analysis is blurry here.  Analysis of sentiment analysis shows a perception that sentiment has made a sharp 180 back to optimism.  I would not be so sure about that.  Let’s disregard everyone’s sentiment for now, shall we?

Data is cold and dead and logical.  The data calls for lower prices on the week.  It comes with a thorny caveat, one that could lash short sellers across the face and scrotum.  Tomorrow is February first, on a Monday.  Seasonal winds statistically favor bulls when a new month starts on Monday.  Paststat’s Kora Reddy wrote an entire book on the matter.

So this is the play: I want strength early in the week.  I will let the bulls have their parade, hopefully chock full of euphoria and jubilee–a pagan celebration becauuse the market monster has been slain and staked to the ground.  Then, come Wednesday, ideally into some smug tweets from one of my bellwethers, I will begin shorting, aggressively.  Or I may just watch from the sidelines whilst methodically operating the futures.

Distinguished Exodus members: the latest Strategy Session has been published.  Inside I cover the latest signaling from my working index model, a recap of last week’s action, and some key context for the upcoming week. Check it out!