NASDAQ futures are coming into the week gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range. The action took place on elevated but not extreme volume, but this might be attributed to some volume still taking place on the December contract. Price managed to rally during the evening and take back more than half of the trend down last Friday before rolling over around 6am and pushing to new lows.
On the economic calendar today we have 3 and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am. However this week all eyes are on the FOMC who is expected to raise interest rates this Wednesday.
Last week the stock market was for sale. The market worked lower with accented down moves on Wednesday and Friday. Friday saw a big pro gap down followed by trending price lower. Buyers defended briefly around the 11/17 gap fill at 4564.75 but were eventually overrun.
Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 4532. Look for responsive sellers around 4538 and two way trade to ensue.
Hypo 2 sellers show up ahead of the gap fill and price rolls over to take out overnight low 4509.75. Look for a move to test the 4500 century mark then responsive buyers at 4495.
Hypo 3 strong buyers fill the overnight gap up to 4532 and sustain trade above 4540 to set up a move to take out overnight high 4573. Look for responsive sellers around 4582.50.
Hypo 4 liquidation continues, price slashes through 4490, look for responsive buyers around 4467.
Levels:
I am sorry to have to ask a stupid… But I have been reading your posts which seem to offer a fascinating glimpse of something i have no clue about. I never really understood what you were on about, but today it clicked that Hypo # probably refers to hypothesis #. So you give 4 possible outcomes for the day based on the available information at the open. Is that right? I had been wondering WTF is a Hypo 4 seller for a while!
Exactly! Based on the overnight action, nearby market profile structure, and prior few days I envision a few ways the day could play out and trade accordingly.
Just ask mate, I don’t bite