Nasdaq futures were up modestly this morning before giving up the gains as we rolled into 8am. There are no economic events which align with this selling. Instead it appears to simply be some early sell flow. As we approach US cash open the Nasdaq futures are flat on a compressed 16.5 point range of trade.
Buyers pressed away from Friday’s range early yesterday morning before finding responsive selling back inside the range. At this point expectation was for a move back to the micro composite volume point of control at 4066 but instead we found buyers who rejected the idea. These buyers took us back up above the daily midpoint in the afternoon. Overall price and value migrated up relative to Friday.
This is occurring inside intermediate term balance. As this balance matures, now going on our 13th session, expectation of a break increases. As we head into Tuesday’s trade, we are priced in the upper tail of balance. If buyers are not strong to initiate trade away from this area, then we are likely to go explore the lower boundaries of balance in short order. I have highlighted the intermediate term balance below:
With that in mind, I have noted the key price levels I will be observing on the following market profile chart:
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Primary hypothesis – buyers push off the open to close overnight gap up to 4093.75 and then target a test of VAH 4102.50 then swing high 4105.50. If no responsive sellers are found then a move to target MM 4114.50
Hypo 2 – buyers push off the open, close overnight gap to 4093.75 and find sharp responsive selling down through VAL 4088.25 for a test of buying tail at 4080.25. If buyers are not as aggressive in defending this area as they were yesterday then sellers look to target MCVPOC at 4066
Hypo 3 – drive down, take out 4080.25 buying tail early, work to MCVPOC at 4066 and NVPOC 4060 where we churn and balance a bit before breaking lower to test the lower region on intermediate term balance, VAL 4049
Looks like Hypo 2 so far…
totally, looking for that 4066 test
My instinct is we’ve seen the low today. could be wrong
mine too, that low is not a good looking one, but we keep 1 tick-failing, now we are holding the mid, just bot some WYNN
And you GoPro continues as usual…
getting close to my target
Congrats are in order. The last 1hr has been fun. Thank god i did not short near 84 range on bounce (saw the volume on buy). I’m a bear on longer term.
pretty wild out there right now