Day-by-day, when you become emerged into a product and methodology, you begin to better understand “where” you are intraday. One of my favorite developments as a trader has been understanding what the market tells me when my hypothesis is wrong. For example, today I had an afternoon hypothesis we could trader lower and target the MCVPOC at 4066. When the selling wave rolled through at lunch, I was expecting the second wave to push us lower than it did. This made sense with my recent range study because it would have produced a 39 point down day for the Nasdaq. That would be in line with the average down days according to the study.
When instead I saw a sharp responsive buy, eight and a quarter points wide (not normal), my trader antennas picked up on a change. The afternoon hypo was negated and the other side became clear. At this point I placed risk in CRM, GOOGL, and DANG. I nailed the intraday move, citing a contra play back to the VPOC, which eventually shifted down to price right around closing prices. My intraday eye is becoming sharp as I prepare to reenter the futures realm.
Something else happened, though.
Perhaps eating an entire chicken for lunch was excessive, for when I attempted my 3pm “power nap” to 3:30pm, I overslept and missed the closing bell. Now I have a bit more risk than I really wanted (eek). My plan was to cut something to make way for this fresh batch of risk. All I managed to close was FEYE weekly calls which might not have even been the right move. I have a bit too much weekly risk already, and it is Monday. May the warm breeze of late summer drift us just a touch higher to allow a rotation out of shorter duration and into longer duration, amen.
To top it all off, I have to go under the knife after market close tomorrow, very routine dental procedure, but a bug in my head nonetheless. Needless to say, I will have some interesting decisions to make tomorrow morning.
So what is working? My long term investments are treating me exactly how I expected they would. I think people are waking up to the huge lead Go Pro has in the wearable market. You would be short sighted to consider them merely a “camera-on-a-stick”. If they can use their momentum properly, then they should continue to outpace any competition in the tiny HD-video arena. With panache I might add. I stand by my $72.00 profit target which is calculated using the valuation Apple gave to Beats during the buyout. Twitter added a “buy” button to tweets apparently and now we are headed for new all-time highs. Now, next year, or five years, I will own Twitter until the fabric of electronic society radically changes. LO is sort of dead after the merger news but whatever, money is parked and earning a coupon. Today might have been the day to add to XON, but I want a bit more information before adding.
Everything else is subject to liquidation. I am like a cat on a hot tin roof up here frying eggs. The timing is everything.
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i made a huge mistake letting go of my twtr calls last week. i’m still in feye though….like you i wanted to pull rip cord but the chart was looking too sexy this evening.
respect for nas
respect for paco then
That FEYE could double from here, I’m holding on and closing my eyes till expiry
FEYE was likely the wrong one to sell because it was one of the strongest out there, TBD.