Nasdsaq futures are up in initial response to a weaker-than-expected NFP data point this morning. The news sent the dollar lower, treasuries higher, and equity prices to their high of the overnight session. As we approach cash trade, there are also unconfirmed reports of a ceasefire protocol in The Ukraine. The initial reaction to any sort of economic figure or news event is often difficult to glean insight into the auction. You are usually better able to observe the reaction to the initial reaction. Developing…
The intermediate term is balanced after trending higher for much of August. Balance can be challenging to trade. The risk you face is chasing longs up into the upper boundary, stopping out in the lower boundary, then going short into the lower boundary, only to again stop out somewhere near the mid. Or you can stick with one side, wait for resolution, then adjust accordingly. I have marked up key intermediate term prices on the following composite chart:
You can see how the pace of trade accelerated during the last two sessions relative to the tight, small profiles to the left of them. The environment is improving for trading the Nasdaq futures. I have noted the short term levels I will be observing on the following market profile chart:
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as you might imagine, overnight volume is running way above normal today, increased likelihood of OTF action
Yes!!
just a reminder that even if I don’t comment, I do read and appreciate your posts….now, let’s see some OTF buying of our momentum positions!
Opening inside prior day value decreases the odds of a drive in either direction, however, we could see move conviction from both responsive and initiative participants so the key to days like this is to stick to your plan and execute YOUR plan. keep your emotions in check. g/l and thanks for your readership
+1
Primary hypothesis – buyers push off the open to target VPOC at 4088.50 and test LVN at 4092.25. Strength continues through about 10:15am and then a strong push lower occurs, which takes prices down through the slide zone to close the overnight gap to 4069.50. However, unlike the prior two days, a responsive buyer emerges and takes us back to the high of session and a possible retest of swing high ~4105
Hypo 2 – sellers push off the open, through slide zone (74.50 -71.75) and close overnight gap at 4069.50, responsive buyers push back up through the slide zone and target VPOC at 4088.50 and a test of 4092.25
Hypo 3 – drive lower, take out slide zone (74.50 – 71.75) close overnight gap 4069.50 and fail to find buyers, continue down to target NVPOC at 4063.25 and test VAL at 4049. If we do not find a responsive bid here, caution on sustained trade below 4049
An avid reader as well…Thanks Raul3!
is this current low being put in a good one? perhaps we trend higher later today?
possible failed auction on the /NQ_F, not the best low I have seen but decent, but I am wondering the same, if we will see the opposite of the past two days which were strong-then-weak, wondering if we pull a weak-to-strong today. First buyers need to recapture the MID though (4063.50) because as of now we are building value lower
breadth is getting off the mats, but still low
LULU looking decent today