The Economy Refuses to Crumble

The ISM numbers came in hot. CRM, VEEV, OKTA all smashed on earnings. It seems to me SAAS stocks are back in play and not just on a dead cat bounce basis, but fundamentally strong.

Biggest winners in SAAS YTD

Are we past the point of being scared about more Fed hikes because the economy is doing so well? Or are we still scared future Fed hikes will hurt whatever it is we have going now? One cannot deny it, no matter where you look — things are stabilizing to getting slightly better. I don’t see how it’s possible. But then again, they once told us there was a helium shortage and kids couldn’t get balloons at their birthday parties because of it.

After the ISM numbers were released this morning, markets dumped and I hedged my portfolio just in case and now we shot back higher, which makes sense since rates are actually decreasing — but I still have my hedge. It’s sort of ornamental now and just look at it without expecting much. I am, however, on the prowl for some momo plays.

I wantonly underperformed today, trading +20bps for the day. But on a YTD basis, I’m up 26.6%. What are you up?

See pal — that’s who I am and you’re nothing.

I think tomorrow I’ll make more. I took most of the day off preparing for the arrival of ANTIFA FLY and made some poor hedging bets into an up tape. I did that because I was out and wanted to freeze things, since I have a PERMANENT 100% long book. What if markets tailed out and I wasn’t around to manage it? It might lead to a 1 or even 2% drawdown.

I cannot allow such things.

This way, when I am out — I simply hedge 20-40% with SQQQ, or another inverse, and go about my day without a worry in the world.

BEHOLD THE PAEGENTRY — FUCK YOURSELVES!

I wake up every morning and hope today is the day — the end all for all crashes — final stop so to say. However, it never happens and even when it looks like it’s gonna happen, 2001, 2008, 2012, 2020, it doesn’t actually happen.

But this time is different etc etc etc.

Sadly, and this is important for you to understand, we are living in an era where the GLOBONEOCON is supreme. You cannot defeat it and we will likely die under its dictate. Whilst some believe “this is freedom” — it’s not and it’s tyranny and the only way to win is to lose. Nevertheless, my feelings and words mean nothing because I hold no sway over these things. The foundations for American power were established decades ago under the aegis of free markets. Since the mid 60s, there has been a takeover of these institutions and we are now in the process of IMPLOSION — because those who now control the machinery of America are morons and spiteful and obviously unable to create anything great.

Ergo, it’s only a matter of time until their reign ends. But when?

That’s what I’d like to know.

The good news is we now have a normal interest rate. The bad news Pax Americana is over. The good news — never short a dull market.

So I won’t.

-35bps midday.

As the world crumbles into the smallest of pieces thanks largely to the PIECE OF SHIT neocon scum who rule the west with an iron fist, it’s important to remember there are some enclaves of freedom out there. Here at iBankCoin, I largely talk to myself and drop TRUTH BOMBS on unsuspecting readers, enlightening them to certain facts, such as, but not limited to: nukes aren’t real, space is a painting, the lunar landing was and still is impossible, America lost WW2, Mary Lincoln SHOT AND KILLED her husband, life did not start in Africa and we’re not all homo sapien sapiens, the earth is obviously flat, gravity is a scam, satellites are balloons, Russia and China aren’t the bad guys.

Life is going exactly as planned for yours truly. I managed to bob and weave today and produce a gain of 1.48%. It’s fairly easy and simple to make money these days and I suspect I will make a lot more this year. If you’re having trouble navigating the market — do not worry for I am here to show you the way. Consider me to be a tour guide.

I closed leveraged long without hedges, especially keen on oils and natty.

Listen to me. You can weave as many boolish stories as you want. You can dress up your homes with gilted brocade and adorn it with the finest mahagonay furniture and maple trim. But if said house itself is crumbling from years of mismanagement, all of the finest upholstery in the world, decadent millwork and state of the art electronics, the house will fall.

Let’s go over the Federal balance sheet for a moment.

Expenditures:

Social Security $1.2t – they tried to kill off granny with COVID but largely flopped, so the expense increases.
Health: $915b
Welfare: $850b
DEBT ON NATIONAL DEBT: $865b (14% OF ANNUAL BUDGET)
Defense/Ukraine: $800-$1t
Medicare: $755b

Entitlements, entitlements. It’s over. Not only is it over — but also cooked. With rates climbing daily, the interest expense on the $31t in debt we owe increases daily. On top of that, we run deficits of $1 to $3 trillion per annum, so every year the balloon gets bigger and bigger as the people inside of the crumbling home get greedier and greedier, adorning it with the finest flooring and chandeliers money can buy.

It’s important to remember, especially when you don’t know what you’re doing, that some people still do. I present to you a status update: RECOURD HIGHS.

Enough is enough already. When is that son of a bitch gonna lose money?

I have my bias and the market doesn’t care and keep going up, so I follow her. I’m 110% long, no hedges. Whenever the market breaks lower, I hedge with 10-40% of my account into SQQQ or some other bedeviled inverse etf and trade is quickly, profit or loss.

The market is very easy, providing you don’t complicate things with your feeeeelings.

I closed out the session +186bps, +8.2% for Feb without any hedges, leveraged long into the teeth of March. The pin action was terrible towards the end of the day and I had hedges in place to deal with that. Bottom line: although it seems like the market should collapse, and we all pray nightly for it to happen, it doesn’t. Because of this, I am inclined to believe we will not CRASH into March and might instead melt up a little.

Bear in mind, my opinions are mostly useless the second I publish them. I excel at real time trading and galvanizing ideas over short durations. Although my opinions can be somewhat useful, if I am being honest with myself and yours truly — my value lies in the now.

As of right now I am bullish. That can change tomorrow.

CIAO

It wasn’t all champagne corks into the faces of laughing fat men in February. We had some severe drawdowns in a number of stocks. Here were the highlights, or lowlights — depending on your point of view.

BABA -20%
JD -25%
MRNA -21%
SIRI -23%
LCID -22%
MTCH -23%
BILL -26%
W -32%
LYFT -37%
LUMN -34%
CHGG -23%
AG -23%
WRBY -21%
CGC -23%
OPEN -31%
BLNK -33%

INDUSTRIES

Synthetic Biology -22%
Silver -17%
Cannabis -16%
Online shopping -16%
Electric Vehicles -15%
Medical Equipment -17%
Chinese Burritos -11%
Nuclear -10%
Solar -10%
Biotech -9%

SECTORS

Healthcare -7.5%
Basic Materials -5.5%
Tech -4.8%

WINNERS:

Tankers +17%
Long term care +8%
Shipping +6.5%
Semis +4%
Auto dealerships +4%
Movie theaters +3.9%

Markets traded DOWN in February — between 2-3%, depending on what index you’re looking at. The semis, however, traded up — and one could say February was a solid consolidation month following an electric January.

But let’s make one thing abundantly clear: Le Fly reigns supreme — presently +8% for the month — outperforming all others with ease and grace.

Whilst you might read that and say to yourselves “oh wow, I am gonna join Stocklabs now and Fly is gonna teach me.” — nothing can be further from the truth. I will teach you nothing. In fact, I sometimes trick people for fun.

Look at Russia now — morons trying to destroy their own equipment they sold to Ukraine — because they got greedy. They sold them all of that military equipment and now that they’re enemies — they’re having a hard time destroying all of it. The same rules apply here. If I really teach you my secrets and we become enemies — I might have a hard time destroying you.

No. I will not be fooled into giving away state secrets for as little as $59.99 per mo. Am I retarded? Certainly not.

I am a fisherman and you are a customer. You are welcomed to enter my place of business and I will not only catch the fish — but cook it too. You can pay me for the fish and my time to cook it — and you may eat until your stomach explodes.

It’s very simple, quite frankly. You can study trading and eat books about it for the next 50 years and still not be as good as me. You wouldn’t ask Michael Jordan to teach you basketball and then expect to be as good or better than him — would you?

Don’t be silly.

I closed out my shorts at the open and now have a 107% long book, breezing into the late morning without a worry in the world.

Catastrophic day for the bulls. You could not stop the late day selling and the people are getting really nervous out there — staring at rates barely down 2bps on a strong up day.

Today, after it’s all said and done, was a dud. I close down just 1%, near my session highs — because of a late day COLLAPSE in semis and tech. I am 50% weighted SHORT on top of a fully long book.

There is no hope because there is no bull case. You should make arrangements now and plan for the worst.